EM Portfolio: Core Portfolio Weighting & What To Do With Afterpay

Bryce: [00:01:28] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast where we help you learn to invest in 45 minutes or less. We break down the world of investing from beginning to dividend so that you can hopefully make some returns. My name is Bryce and as always, I am joined by my equity buddy Ren. How's it going, bro? [00:01:43][15.6]

Alec: [00:01:44] I'm very good. Bryce very excited to get stuck into our next hypothetical portfolio episode. Yes. Where we're going to finish off the discussion around our core portfolio and then start the discussion of the sexy part of it all, our satellite individual stock selection. [00:02:01][17.0]

Bryce: [00:02:01] Who would have thought like building a portfolio would take so long? They so complicated [00:02:04][3.1]

Alec: [00:02:06] three episodes of a podcast [00:02:07][1.1]

Bryce: [00:02:07] Now, you're right, Ren today's episode. We're hoping to close off the portfolio waiting. We're going to review some comments that have been coming in from our investing committee saying you guys talk about our strategy in terms of our position, in terms of cash that would be starting with close out with some of the listener submissions that are coming in and our expert watch list. So stay tuned for that. Pretty exciting news there. So let's actually start with a couple of pieces of feedback from the investing committee. As I said that you guys out there listening to the show, Ren Daniel, actually made comment on our last one. Remember when we were talking about our ETF core portfolio and we included Australian property, international property? [00:02:50][42.8]

Alec: [00:02:50] I do remember [00:02:50][0.3]

Bryce: [00:02:51] he commented on that on our Facebook group, and I think it's a fair comment. He said, I think property component's is a bad call currently. Maybe not a bad call very long term, but he wouldn't be going anywhere near it at this at this stage and give sort of reasons for that. I can understand why he would be saying that. But what would your sort of response be to this? [00:03:09][18.3]

Alec: [00:03:09] Yeah, well, people who are in our Facebook group will say that I already have responded. So they got a little sneak peek. And that's why you should be a part of the Facebook. [00:03:18][8.2]

Bryce: [00:03:18] Nice. And maybe perhaps I should be reading your comments. [00:03:20][1.8]

Alec: [00:03:21] Yeah, he's on the right property, is probably not in for a good six to 12 months, depending on how long the virus lasts and what it does to different sections of the property market. I think there are a few things. The first is this is a long term set and forget model and the whole problem with staying very short term in what you think is going to move the market, but saying you're a long term investor is you get into these situations. And so sometimes you have to just take your medicine and invest in a time when it's not a good time to be truly long term in your thinking. And so for us, I think it would have been a wrong move to say we're going to sit out of the property thing for 12 months because we think it may get worse. That is sort of against the ethos that, you know, we talk about on the show and that historically and academically has been proven to work, you know, time in the market. But timing the market. And I think my last point is that the property market isn't just one giant general thing. There are different subsections and they're all moving in different ways. So, like, obviously, there's a lot of talk around residential and depending on what's happening with Job Kaper and all of that stuff, depending on what happens with bank foreclosures, residential probably will get hit a bit. We had Chris Joy on the show, who's a legendary bond trader, and he he sort of was saying a short dip and then a sharp recovery in the residential housing market. So there are a lot of factors there. But I think if you look at offices, they're probably going to hurt a lot more working from home, a lot more shutdowns or longer shutdowns. And everyone was hoping. But there's also sectors of the property market that I think will be quite resilient and are doing quite well, like warehouses in massive demand at the moment. And Coles, Woollies and Amazon are really driving big investments in that space in massive new distribution centres and the like in Australia. And there is other players who are moving online and that sector of the property market will do quite well. So I think I agree with him in general, but there's a few reasons why we decided it's the time to do it. [00:05:24][122.9]

Bryce: [00:05:25] Nice couple of other pieces of feedback that we should answer on the show, and that is a listener reached out on Instagram and asked, are we reinvesting dividends? We absolutely do intend to keep track of all distributions that come through. And well, I haven't spoken to the CEO of our investment company. [00:05:44][18.9]

Bryce: [00:05:44] What does that make you see? Want to employ a CEO? [00:05:49][4.4]

Bryce: [00:05:51] I personally would be reinvesting dividends. What are your thoughts, Ren? [00:05:54][2.7]

Alec: [00:05:54] I think the answer to this should just be on whatever's easiest for us to track, because otherwise it could become a real nightmare, [00:06:02][8.3]

Bryce: [00:06:04] be a case by case basis. [00:06:05][0.9]

Alec: [00:06:05] I think in theory, reinvesting dividends makes sense. [00:06:10][5.1]

Bryce: [00:06:12] Look, I know how to use Excel. It's not [00:06:13][1.8]

Bryce: [00:06:14] there. [00:06:14][0.0]

Alec: [00:06:16] No, but I don't really have a dog in the fight. If we get dividends in cash, we should hold it in cash and then invest it back into the market or we can just reinvest them. But I think, yeah, whatever is. Be easiest for us to track within our technical limitations, [00:06:29][13.5]

Bryce: [00:06:31] Ren laziness is [00:06:32][0.8]

Bryce: [00:06:32] really coming through here and you'll thank me later. [00:06:35][3.6]

Bryce: [00:06:37] Final piece of feedback that has come through was around the lack of sustainable and ethical options in our core portfolio. Were we planning on addressing that? Was it intentional? And where does our head kind of sit with that? What are your thoughts on that Ren? [00:06:53][16.1]

Alec: [00:06:53] I think we obviously have been just in our personal philosophies towards sustainable investing, but the point of this portfolio was bare bones stripped right back to the basics. So we didn't add any additional features, as in like, you know, index trackers with a sustainable bent or anything like that just because it was in another layer of complexity, I guess. So for the core portfolio at this stage, I think we steer clear of even heading down the thematic line into the sort of sustainable space, even, let alone the more thematic stuff. I'm open to changing my opinion, if you think we should. [00:07:30][36.4]

Bryce: [00:07:30] I feel like we will we will move towards wanting to put thematic ETFs and, you know, Elsas in the like into this portfolio. Given that the rules for the satellite with it, we're steering clear of those. But for now, I agree. I think for what we're all trying to achieve from a bare bones, this is our core. It doesn't quite have a place right now. But that's not to say never say never. [00:07:54][23.2]

Alec: [00:07:54] Yeah. And look, all the conversations we're having are applicable to sustainable ETFs. You know, if we are investing in an ASX 200 ETF, which we discussed last time, if there is an equivalent sustainable ASX 200 ETF, which just screens out miners and resource companies, which might make it an ASX 40 or something, you could invest in that and you could apply all the same logic and the same philosophy is holding for the long term. So this is really just a teaching tool. Obviously, nothing we say is an actual buy, hold or sell recommendation. So the more important thing is the discussion and the lessons and then apply it in in your own way. [00:08:35][41.3]

Bryce: [00:10:37] Absolutely nice. Well, that closes out the ETF chut for that bit. Let's get back to the portfolio. The big question Ren. We've got a current portfolio as it stands. We're recording this on the 1st of August. As it stands, the portfolio is worth thirty one thousand nine hundred and thirty six dollars. The biggest question that we put out now hold on. [00:10:56][18.5]

Alec: [00:10:56] We should be clear. So before just before when we were talking about listener questions, we're talking about the core portfolio. Yes. We've now moved to settle a satellite. And this this is the portfolio that we started when we started the show in twenty seventeen. So for people who have just picked up this episode back in the day, we picked six stocks in different episodes in twenty seventeen that made up our hypothetical portfolio. We put that on ice for a little while. Long story. You can listen back to all the episodes if you want to, but. We decided to blow the dust off and pull it out in twenty twenty. We had a look at our returns and we turn six grand into 32, mainly because of just one stock that everyone in Australia is probably familiar with Afterpay. Yes. So we are now in a position where we are deciding what we're going to do with that. Do we get to keep the Afterpay game is really the question. [00:11:50][53.5]

Bryce: [00:11:51] So we asked you guys on social media what we should be doing. Facebook poll, 88 percent of you suggested that we should be starting from scratch. Instagram, 68 percent of you also said that we should be starting from scratch now. Fair call from you guys. [00:12:05][14.4]

Bryce: [00:12:06] I think I [00:12:07][1.0]

Bryce: [00:12:07] think, though, that it kind of goes against our philosophy and message here. You know, this is the whole coffee can investing that Andrew Brown often talks about. You know, if you had if we take this off the table now and in 20 years time, that stock is worth three thousand dollars, then you've just left so much money on the table. But for the process of doing this, perhaps Ren, I don't know what you think, but maybe we just liquidate the whole thing that gives us thirty two thousand dollars to play with in our core portfolio and also our satellite portfolio. What are your [00:12:37][30.3]

Alec: [00:12:37] thoughts? I like the idea of liquidating everything and just starting from scratch. The only thing I want to say before then is there was a lot of chatter without Afterpay the portfolio wouldn't have done nearly as well. And the response to that was, of course, like, but if you look at any portfolio, like if you look at any professional fund, if you look at what Warren Buffett is doing right now, you don't have an even distribution of returns. You should not expect that in many cases it will be a bell curve, but there will be a small percentage of your holdings that drive the majority of your returns in most cases. And right now, that is exactly what's happening with Warren Buffett and Apple, and that's what happens with my most professional fund. So I thought that pieces of feedback was interesting because it clearly wasn't expected by a lot of people. But for me, it was definitely expected in my personal portfolio. It's the same like there are some stocks that just rip along and others are a little bit slower. And so I think the fact that Afterpay ran faster than anything else isn't a reason enough alone to sell it. But it sort of feels like we're starting fresh in twenty twenty, so I'm pretty open to liquidating it. If you really want to hold on to Afterpay, given it's your baby, I'm happy for you to hang on to it as well. I'm pretty flexible here from my perspective. I was surprised by some of that feedback. [00:13:56][79.2]

Bryce: [00:13:57] Yeah, fair call and so was I. Obviously our message wasn't getting through clear enough. But look, for the purposes of the exercise, let's liquidate it. I'll keep track of Afterpay from a personal [00:14:07][9.6]

Bryce: [00:14:07] experience, personal point of [00:14:09][1.4]

Bryce: [00:14:09] view, and we can see how it [00:14:10][1.4]

Alec: [00:14:10] goes. Well, lucky for you, as well as investing in this hypothetical portfolio, you also invested in real life alero. That one probably gives you a lot more joy than this one. [00:14:20][9.8]

Bryce: [00:14:20] Yeah, fair. It does. So. [00:14:22][1.5]

Bryce: [00:14:23] All right, Ren. So we've got about 32 on the table. I imagine we'll just split this 50/50 between core and satellite to Kick-Off. [00:14:29][7.0]

Bryce: [00:14:30] I like [00:14:30][0.1]

Alec: [00:14:30] that. I like that. So the rules of the game, we have thirty two on the table because we've liquidated and then we're putting in a thousand every month. [00:14:39][8.5]

Bryce: [00:14:40] Yes. On top of that thirty two. [00:14:41][1.6]

Alec: [00:14:42] And that's to replicate the average retail investor that's working a job and saving a bit of money. And we're saying a thousand a month. Yes. But I [00:14:51][9.3]

Bryce: [00:14:51] like that to kick things [00:14:52][0.8]

Bryce: [00:14:52] off we're going to take fifty percent of that, 30 to 15000 to build our core portfolio. Yes. And let's discuss waiting. This is where we really need to consider how much of the fifteen are we going to invest in each of our seven ETFs that we have at the moment. Now to remind people what we've got, we've got an Australian equities ETF, the beta shares ASX 200, a 200 is the ticker US equities VTS is the ticker for that Europe. [00:15:20][28.0]

Bryce: [00:15:21] The ticker is [00:15:21][0.5]

Bryce: [00:15:22] VQ Asia, Australian Property, International. [00:15:25][3.3]

Alec: [00:15:25] Hold on Asia. Asia's ticker is VÉ. Yes, I think we skipped that last episode as well. Accidentally Oh, yeah, I think that was a comment on the Facebook group that we didn't mention one of the tickets. [00:17:28][122.9]

Bryce: [00:17:29] So Covid Australian property to give VIP an international property ticker, DJIA, a global infrastructure V, B, l, d. Now, what we need to consider is of all of those, what are we going to be putting the most amount of money in? And we're going to be putting this. [00:17:47][18.4]

Alec: [00:17:47] Can I put a pin in that question and ask a separate question first? Because then that will probably come back to the discussion of Widing. Is there anything else that you want to put in the core portfolio at this time? And specifically, I'm talking gold, potentially fixed interest, potentially other markets like emerging markets or things like smokeout. [00:18:06][18.7]

Bryce: [00:18:06] I'm happy to leave emerging markets and small caps out of this, but I think it would be good to include fixed interest being bonds and also gold commodities, [00:18:15][8.3]

Alec: [00:18:15] gold being at a massive all time high. [00:18:18][2.6]

Bryce: [00:18:18] I'd probably go with the CEF, the one that we can, but you can't buy that in Australia, which is a killer. Yeah. So we're going to have to go with Joell Day, which is ETF securities. It is at an all time high, but I think again, for the purposes of it, just because it's an all time high doesn't we shouldn't [00:18:33][14.8]

Alec: [00:18:34] take that [00:18:34][0.3]

Bryce: [00:18:35] into consideration. [00:18:35][0.1]

Alec: [00:18:36] If funny, Jesse Felder, who's been a massive gold bug for the last five, eight plus years, wrote an article recently saying it might be time to cool off on gold. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I've I remember I've had always had gold in my portfolio and I remember getting not shredded, but getting a lot of back at one of our live shows a few years ago that. Why would you have gotten your portfolio. This is why [00:19:01][25.5]

Bryce: [00:19:02] you're [00:19:02][0.0]

Alec: [00:19:04] all right anyway. So what do we reckon. [00:19:06][1.8]

Bryce: [00:19:06] OK, well I would like to add fixed interest and gold into the portfolio. [00:19:10][3.6]

Alec: [00:19:10] Yeah, OK. [00:19:11][0.4]

Bryce: [00:19:11] What are you thinking? [00:19:12][0.3]

Alec: [00:19:12] Fixed interest for me is kind of like I get, I get it, it's just it's not very sexy at the moment. But that's the point. And I know you had the whole conversation about property. Yeah. Let's do it. Why not. Okay. So I think we'll get to the wedding conversation in a sec, but I feel small, small weightings to both of them. [00:19:31][19.0]

Bryce: [00:19:31] Very small. Well, let's have that conversation right now. So we're on the same page, I think, when it comes to the stance for this being an aggressive sort of portfolio construction. Yeah, what I mean by that is heavily weighted towards equities as an asset class. And then from your defensive assets, such as fixed interest gold, I guess property might fall into that, less weighting towards that. So the big question, Ren, is what is going to be the weighting if you were to take it from an asset class point of view, not breaking it down into Aussie, US, Europe, et cetera. Yet what would you consider to be your weighting mix? [00:20:09][37.7]

Alec: [00:20:10] I think there's no right answer here. Obviously, I want to be pretty aggressive, so I'll probably be saying 60 percent equities, 40 percent everything else with not a lot of science. But that feels about right to me. [00:20:20][9.9]

Bryce: [00:20:20] I mean, this is why we do the podcast together, because I went away. I haven't spoken to you about this and I have done the exact same weighting. Sixty percent equities, 40 percent other. [00:20:28][8.3]

Alec: [00:20:29] Have you done 15, 15, 15, 15, ten, ten, ten, ten. Yes, yes. OK, so without speaking to each other, we're completely aligned on how we would structure it. So just to explain the numbers that I just rattled off, then of the sixty percent, there's four ETFs for international and Australian equity ETFs and we basically have both independently said 15 percent weighting to each of them. So 15 percent weighting to the US, 15 percent weighting to Australia, 15 percent weighting to Europe and 15 percent weighting to Japan. And that equals 60 percent of the core portfolio. [00:21:04][35.1]

Bryce: [00:21:05] Asia ex-Japan. [00:21:05][0.4]

Alec: [00:21:07] Oh, sorry. Did I say Japan? Yeah, that's my bad. So that's 60 percent. And then the remaining 40 percent, we've said 10 percent to the Australian property ETF, 10 percent of the International Property ETF for international infrastructure ETF, 10 percent to gold, 10 percent of fixed income. That gold and fixed income allocation potentially is a little bit aggressive. [00:21:27][20.8]

Bryce: [00:21:28] The other component Ren that we need to consider is are we leaving anything in cash as an asset class in itself? Because that is a consideration. If you think about your total portfolio, I personally have cash available and it makes up a percentage of my total portfolio maybe. Is it a five percent? Is it? No, we're not just for the purpose of the exercise and we'll have cash available in the satellite portfolio. What are your thoughts on that? [00:21:50][21.6]

Alec: [00:21:50] It's a good question. I mean, cash is a useful defensive asset for certain situations. When equity markets plunge, cash gives you options. But it is also just it holds its value. It's not a bad call. Maybe we say five percent gold, five percent cash. [00:22:05][15.5]

Bryce: [00:22:06] All right, Ren, five percent cash. So just to close this out, we're going sixty percent total weighting towards our equities or the US, Europe and Asia. We will make this available online at some point. We're just getting the back end ready. [00:22:21][14.7]

Alec: [00:22:21] I know we said that last time. Yes, we did. Just ignore our own what we said, we just are figuring out the best way to show it on our website. [00:22:29][7.5]

Bryce: [00:22:29] Yes, 10 percent in Aussie property, 10 international property. Then we went 10 infrastructure, five gold, five cash. That's 100 [00:22:37][8.0]

Alec: [00:22:37] percent. Yeah, if prices maths didn't quite add up there. Go to our website and check if it's available. Hopefully it will be. You know what I'll do? [00:22:44][6.8]

Bryce: [00:22:45] I'll just take a screenshot of this and we can post it on our Instagram as a start. That'll be the best thing. Yeah. Nice. Now, Ren, just to close out this episode, we said that we'd make reference to some of the listener submissions that are coming in because as we said, you guys are just as valuable in this process as Ren is and as I am [00:23:02][17.4]

Alec: [00:23:02] not nearly as valuable as Bryce. [00:23:04][1.1]

Bryce: [00:23:05] Oh, thanks, Ren. That's fine. [00:23:05][0.7]

Bryce: [00:23:06] So we've had like four submissions come in which have been great. Trevor Myers, just a shout out to Trev. He has put down and PVCs Nova Niks Limited, Novenas Limited. Harry Kastin has submitted points, but James on Instagram has submitted Zipp and Khush from the University of Western Australia Student Managed Investment Fund has sent through a bunch of awesome research around a number of stocks. So massive shout out to Coach and his team. We can't wait to share that with you guys as well. [00:23:37][31.3]

Alec: [00:23:37] So there's one other Facebook account that I'm pretty confident is your fake Facebook account that, you know, from the discussion group that just keeps messaging me and pitching Afterpay. [00:23:48][10.3]

Bryce: [00:23:50] Hold on. Busted. [00:23:50][0.4]

Bryce: [00:23:52] I look, I think, as I said, we will get to a stage where we will seriously consider all of the submissions that come through as we start to deploy the 15000 in cash. That's going to be a really fun episode. But for now, just to shout out to you guys, awesome. Thanks for sending those in and a shout out to everyone else, please. If you have something that you'd like to be included in the portfolio, by all means, reach out and give us the submission. Just keeping mind that one of the rules is that every submission must have a thesis, 50 words, 5000 words, whatever it may be, we need to have a thesis behind it. So looking forward to hearing from you. [00:24:25][33.0]

Alec: [00:24:25] Yeah, and last thing is, as part of our mission, to get all the knowledge possible from experts in our interviews and condense it down for us and for everyone listening to learn from, we're also going to tap into our network of experts to build out this watch list and to build out some recommendations for this portfolio. We have one now. We haven't released the interview yet, so we won't reveal the name of the person or the company that was recommended. But we're also going to be building up a little bit of a watch list from experts, take their ideas, claim them as our own. There's no points for originality in investing. It's all about your returns. Absolutely. So we are going to steal some ideas from the best in the business. And you guys can also hear what they have to say. [00:25:11][45.7]

Bryce: [00:25:11] Building the world's largest copy cat. Nice Ren. So look, just to close out everything there, a lot to absorb. But in summary, we're liquidating the satellite portfolio as it stands, taking the 32000, splitting 15000 into building the core, 15000 into rebuilding the satellite. And we'll endeavour to post on social media at least what the current core portfolio looks like. [00:25:35][24.2]

Alec: [00:25:36] And don't worry, Bryce is isn't off there. He knows that fifteen plus fifteen doesn't equal thirty two. He's just siphoned off the other two into his personal account. [00:25:45][9.0]

Bryce: [00:25:45] I've got to take some time to think about replicating real world management. Thanks to Internet [00:25:50][5.5]

Alec: [00:25:51] Bryce is like the Kodak insiders that had to write right inside.[00:25:55][4.5]

Speaker 6: [00:26:11] Thanks for listening to Equity Mates investing podcast production of Equity Mates Media. Please remember that everything you hear in Equity Mates investment podcast with general advice on link content has been prepared, not knowing the personal objectives, specific financial circumstances or goals. The host of Equity Mates Investment Podcast may maintain positions in the companies discussed before considering any investment. Please read the product disclosure statement and consider speaking to a licenced financial professional. [00:26:11][0.0]

[1293.9]