This was a fascinating study to come out of the West African nation of Liberia. 999 men who were at risk of committing violent crimes were identified and split into four groups. The first were given eight weeks of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT), the second were given $200 in cash, the third were given both CBT and the cash, and then finally, the fourth were given neither as a control.
The results were pretty stunning. A month after the intervention the therapy and therapy+cash group were both showing positive results. A year after the intervention, the therapy group’s results had deteriorated a little. However, the therapy+cash group were still showing huge improvements – crime and violence were down about 50% from the control group.
The assumption was the impact of this intervention would erode over time. Which is why scientists were so surprised to find that after tracking these men down 10 years after the intervention, the therapy+cash group still had rates of crime and violence about 50% less than the control group.
The math on this is pretty compelling. The researchers estimate that there were 338 fewer crimes committed per participant over that 10 year period. Given that it had cost just $530 per participant to implement the program, this works out to be $1.50 per crime avoided (a trade off anyone in public policy would surely make).
The big question that emerged from these findings is why did the combination of CBT and cash work so well, when neither CBT or cash alone yielded results nearly as good. From this article:
The most plausible hypothesis, according to Blattman, is that the $200 in cash enabled the men to pursue a few months of legitimate business activity — say, shoe shining — after the therapy ended. That meant a few extra months of getting to cement their new non-criminal identity and behavioral changes. “Basically, it gave them time to practice,” Blattman told me.
These results are just one study, but policy makers in Chicago have kicked off a similar program and the results from that program will be interesting to examine. Chicago is a suffering from an incredible crime wave at the moment, with 95% of shootings going unsolved by police. So this kind of CBT+cash intervention will be truly tested there. If it does work, it will be further evidence that helping at-risk people reintegrate into society is much more effective at stopping violence than an overly punitive policing setting.
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