Space Race 2.0: Are there millions to be made from the moon?

Sascha: [00:00:02] From Equity Mates media. This is the dive. I'm your host, Sascha Kelly. How much do you think about what's going on in space. 

Audio clip: [00:00:10] We can see you coming down the ladder now? 

Sascha: [00:00:12] Are you as surprised as me to learn that the space race isn't over? 

Audio clip: [00:00:17] It's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. 

Sascha: [00:00:23] While we might have got to the moon, there's now a new battle between nations to see who can kick start mining lucrative celestial elements. And this is putting pressure on the delicate balance of intergalactic relationships between nations. That's right. Star Wars isn't fiction anymore. It's Wednesday, the 25th of May. And today I want to know exactly what is going on with these superpowers and their quest to mine things in space. And to talk about that today. I'm joined by my colleague and the co-founder of Equity Mates. It's Bryce Leske. Welcome. 

Bryce: [00:00:59] Thank you, Sascha. 

Sascha: [00:01:00] So tell me what's going on. We're seeing a renewed space race. That's my understanding. 

Bryce: [00:01:05] While we're all living through geopolitical tensions here on planet Earth, you might be surprised, as you said in the intro to here, that in the past, space has been a place of international cooperation. 

Audio clip: [00:01:16] For the past 24 years, the U.S. and Russia have worked together building and maintaining the SS.

Bryce: [00:01:21] But the past decade has seen that deteriorate. We've seen Russia and America throw accusations at each other over the International Space Station. 

Audio clip: [00:01:29] Dangerous standoff in space. Russia is making new threats regarding the safety of an American astronaut on the International Space Station.

Bryce: [00:01:36] And then China recently have decided to go ahead and build their own.

Sascha: [00:01:40] In April, China launched the core part of its new space station called Tiangong, which means Heavenly Palace in Chinese. 

Bryce: [00:01:46] Alongside government space programmes, private companies are reinvigorating the hunt for commercial opportunities in space mining, asteroids, space hotels, low earth orbit tourism. And finally, the consensus around the weaponization of space is also breaking down. Trump announced a space force, which we'll get to later. And Russia is shooting down satellites. China is also testing new hypersonic weapons. So, yes, the space race is certainly back on, but this time it isn't just America versus the Soviet Union. We're in a multipolar world now and the space race has a number of participants. 

Sascha: [00:02:21] What a scene you've sat there and there's so many aspects of that that I'd love to dig into, but one that's particularly grabbed our attention this week is the mining in space and the fact that China and the U.S. are racing to stake their claim. So where do we even start with this mining story? 

Bryce: [00:02:38] Well, that's right. Sascha certainly caught my attention this week and I was fascinated. You know, we continue to move into an age of technological advancement and digitisation. And we've spoken a lot on the show and across the Equity Mates network about the need for rare earth metals and resources in the manufacturing of a lot of these technologies and resources that we use today. The Moon It might actually be a treasure trove of rare resources that are vital to Earth's future, which is why these superpowers are looking at it with starry eyes. 

Sascha: [00:03:06] Great fun.

Bryce: [00:03:07] Geological surveys show that the moon contains three crucial elements the first water we all know that's vital for supporting life. The second is helium three. This is a rare earth elements sought for future developments in the energy sector, particularly nuclear fusion. And then the third is rare earth metals, which is used in manufacturing of everything from smartphones and computers to medical equipment and solar panels. Now, 90% of the world's rare earth metals are produced in China, but China claims its reserves may only last 15 to 20 years. And given the crucial importance of some of these metals and resources, it's no wonder that countries are looking to alternative sources. The moon being one of them. And of course, with control of these resources comes a lot of money and strategic importance. 

Sascha: [00:03:51] You've given me a couple of fun facts there for trivia to count of my dad, who once told me that the moon was made of cheese. Let's focus on how you do this. How do you actually mine the moon? And then how on earth would you get well, the resources back?

Bryce: [00:04:09] Well, cheese is the fourth crucial element that I didn't get to. But yes, you're right. The short answer is, it is very hard and very expensive to mine the moon to the point where it can be argued. It's just not worth trying to bring any of the resources back to Earth. The SpaceX Falcon nine rocket Lift-Off. The Satellite and Crew Dragon, which is Elon Musk's reusable rocket. Changing the game for space flight, can launch a kilo of material into space for about $2,720. But if you use other spacecraft, it can cost upwards of $50,000 per kilo. So already you can start to see that getting equipment to the moon to even think about mining it is going to cost a lot of money. Then Sascha, once you're up there, you're going to require a whole range of new technologies to actually extract and refine the minerals and resources.

Audio clip: [00:04:58] In order to. Really survive and thrive in space. We've got to learn to live off the land, to acquire the resources in space that will allow us to survive in space.

Bryce: [00:05:09] So the most likely scenario is that materials mined in space will be used in space to help save on costs. Mining materials that can be used on site is called In-Situ Resource Utilisation. Bit of jargon, but essentially it means you can use what you mine on site from mining ice to collecting soil to build structures. Nasser is actually currently exploring the possibility of constructing buildings on the moon using 3D printing from resources that they mine. Pretty fascinating. Another great example of in-situ resource utilisation is mining water from the moon's surface. It can be broken down into oxygen and hydrogen and used as propellant. Now, why is that useful? Well, propellant can be used to extend the life span of satellites, which currently have a 10 to 20 year life span before they run out of fuel. 

Sascha: [00:05:58] So, as you said, possible but not really worth it or economically viable at this stage in time. So let's sadly leave them here for now and look further afield. What else? Out in space can we be mining? 

Bryce: [00:06:12] Asteroids, Sascha? Asteroids. And there are millions of them in our solar system. And because some of them are full of materials that are rare on earth, they have been valued at stupendous amounts. So while it's still very early days, a number of companies are chasing this and currently developing technologies for off-earth mining, space, resource exploration and for other uses in space. The Canadian Space Mining Corporation is developing infrastructure required to support life in space, including oxygen generators and other machinery. US based company Offworld is developing industrial robots for operations on Earth, the Moon, Asteroids and Mars and the Asteroid Mining Corporation is also working to establish a market for space resources. But Sascha, the biggest prise may be one particular asteroid, the white whale of the solar system, if you like. And it's an asteroid we've known about for a long time, first discovered in 1852. 

Sascha: [00:07:10] Look, I have no idea what this asteroid is, but, you know, I want to hear more about it. 

Bryce: [00:07:15] I can tell you're itching. You are going to love this story. Have you heard about 16 psychic $1,000,000,000,000 asteroid worth more than our planet's GDP? 

Sascha: [00:07:25] No, I haven't. And I'm going to say it sounds like the plot of a James Bond movie at this stage. 

Audio clip: [00:07:31] The way you handle it. Our clients are satisfied with the progress so far. My government is quite satisfied. 

Bryce: [00:07:38] Well, you're not far off. This is perhaps what is exciting the superpowers about the potential for mining in space. It was the 16th asteroid ever discovered, as I said, back in 1852 and is one of the most massive objects in the solar system aside from our planet. It orbits the sun in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. But here's the fun part. It was once estimated to be worth $700 quintillion. That is 700, followed by 18 zeros. So whatever it is, it's more than the Earth's economy. The GDP output in 2020 for the entire world was 84 trillion peanuts compared to the value of psyche, 16 asteroids. 

Sascha: [00:08:23] You really lent into this sci fi plot point, but I guess I've got to ask, why is it worth so much money? 

Bryce: [00:08:30] Well, it's described by NASA as a unique metal rich asteroid. And remember in the intro how I mentioned the importance of these rare earth minerals and resources? Well, this asteroid is not made of rock or ice like plenty of others. It is made of valuable nickel iron. It's an asteroid made of metal. NASA's plan to launch a space x rocket in August 2022 to arrive at the asteroid in January of 2026 for a period of scientific discovery. And who knows, there might be a bit of mining going on. But let's keep in mind, Sascha, that while we've brought plenty of material back from the moon, only twice in human history has an asteroid sample been brought back to Earth. It was done by Japanese aerospace exploration and they returned a sample of dust particles and it cost them $250 million to do it. 

Sascha: [00:09:20] Okay. So that's why in my mind so well, we're years of being able to bring back Psyche 16 to make sure the Earth has all these amazing natural minerals. But it's pretty exciting stuff. 

Bryce: [00:09:32] Yeah. Yeah. 

Sascha: [00:09:33] So there's no question that there's valuable minerals up in space for us to gather and that countries are racing to get there. But I want to know, are there any rules to the game? So let's talk about that in a couple of minutes. Welcome back to the Dive. I'm joined by Bryce Lasky. And today we're talking about space race 2.0. So we talked about the minerals. And let's actually talk to the politics now. In your intro, you told me that the collegial atmosphere that might have previously happened between the nations is starting to break down. Can you tell me a little bit more about what's happening?

Bryce: [00:10:12] Yeah, I can, Sascha And with asteroids floating around worth $700 quintillion, it's no surprise that they are that things are heating up in the political space. We're seeing the consensus in space breaking down. Russia, the US, and China all appear to be going their own way. I mentioned that Russia and the US have been trading accusations about the International Space Station. The US accused Russia of endangering astronauts aboard the ISS by conducting an anti-satellite weapons test that created more than 1500 pieces of space junk.

Audio clip: [00:10:43] The test blew up one of Russia's own satellites, creating debris that forced the crew to shelter in capsules. 

Bryce: [00:10:51] Following this, the Russia then accused the US astronauts of sabotaging a Russian spacecraft back in 2018, causing an air leak in an orbiting Russian laboratory. 

Audio clip: [00:11:01] According to AFP, Rogozin recently made televised comments in which he raised the possibility that a saboteur deliberately damaged the side of the Soyuz capsule. 

Bryce: [00:11:09] As the US and Russia's cooperation on the International Space Station breaks down. Would you believe it? The US have also blocked China, so in 2011, NASA's refused Chinese participation in the International Space Station and as a result, China said, You know what, we're just going to build our own. Last year, China launched the first module of the Tiangong space station. Tiangong is expected to host experiments from Belgium, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Spain. I think we can sum it up as everyone but America is getting an invite to the Tiangong space station. So this breakdown in cooperation is leading to greater military tension in space as well. You may remember Sascha Trumps Space Force. 

Audio clip: [00:11:57] We are going to have the Air Force and we are going to have the Space Force was. 

Bryce: [00:12:02] Launched in his term and was pretty provocative.

Sascha: [00:12:05] I certainly do remember Space Force. Yes. That led to a thousand names, I think. 

Bryce: [00:12:11] Thousand names. American General David Thompson, the space force's first vice chief of space operations, told The Washington Post that Russia and China are constantly attacking US satellites in a variety of ways, including lasers, jammers and cyber breaches. And we're seeing new weapons being tested as well. 

Audio clip: [00:12:29] Tonight, new concerns inside the U.S. defence community over a Russian military satellite exhibiting some very strange behaviour.

Sascha: [00:12:35] Russia launched an anti-satellite weapons test against its own satellite on Monday, causing over a thousand pieces of debris. 

Audio clip: [00:12:43] China's FOBs can go around the planet at hypersonic speeds to wipe out entire cities. Forbes stands for fractional orbital bombardment system.

Sascha: [00:12:52] Well, Bryce, that's all mildly terrifying. But aside from this episode today, in general news, I've heard a lot about Space X, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin as well. Private space companies run by billionaires. How did they fit into this reinvigorated space race? 

Bryce: [00:13:08] So yeah, they are contracting for their national governments. So Space X and Blue Origin are competing for NASA contracts. 

Audio clip: [00:13:15] Jeff Bezos, Blue Origin lost a months long legal battle today against NASA. Back in April, NASA awarded Elon Musk Space X with a $2.9 billion contract. 

Bryce: [00:13:27] And Russia and China also have a number of private space companies working to support their government's efforts. But, Sascha, all of these companies contract with governments because they are the groups with money to fund space operations now. And while trying to build their own commercial businesses with companies and other groups, SpaceX is out in front here. They have been able to bring the cost of launching a satellite down significantly. And they work with companies all over the world, including NASCAR, in their attempts to get to site 16, the 700 quadrillion asteroid floating around out there. But there are plenty of other space companies looking to commercialise space as well. It's it's a pretty competitive landscape at the moment. 

Sascha: [00:14:06] So to truly explore and commercialise space, well, governments are going to need to start working together. As I said in my in chart, no one really does want Star Wars to become non-fiction. So do we have any terms of agreement when it comes to space? 

Bryce: [00:14:22] Yeah, this was the sort of really interesting part to me, Sascha. Space governance is a bit fuzzy. Laws are few and very old, and they're not written for asteroid mining or for a time when companies are going to dominate mining in space. In 1967, the United Nations Outer Space Treaty was signed with 111 nations, including all major space faring countries, came on board. It's a multilateral treaty that forms the basis. That's for international space law. But just like the rest of international law on Earth, space law is highly ineffective and difficult to enforce, according to the treaty. No nation can claim ownership of the moon. However, space law experts question whether the treaty could prevent private ownership. Nothing stopping you and I, Sascha. Getting a mining company together and claiming property rights and using the moon as a commercial venture. Well, I guess other than the fact we don't have billions of dollars, but with superpowers jostling for space supremacy and the right to mine, there is a new set of principles that has come to play in 2020. The Trump administration draughted a new international agreement for mining on the moon known as the Artemis Accords. It's a non legally binding set of principles to govern activity on the Moon, Mars and beyond, and forms the foundation of NASA's efforts to put astronauts back on the moon by 2025 and kick start their mining operations. So far, 19 countries have agreed to support the accords, including for Romania, Colombia, Bahrain and Singapore. They signed up after Putin's invasion, spurred a US led effort to isolate Russia. However, China and Russia aren't buying it. No surprises there. They haven't signed the accords. One of China's issues with the Ottomans Accord is a provision allowing nations to designate areas of the moon as safety zones, regions where other countries should avoid. But as we know, you legally can't lay claim to the moon. So China see this as an attempt at land grabbing, which is a violation of international law and don't want any part of it. China actually wants rule making to be settled at the UN. 

Sascha: [00:16:28] Dare I say it? It sounds like it's a story that's asking us to watch this space. 

Audio clip: [00:16:33] Yes. 

Bryce: [00:16:35] That is correct, pun intended. 

Sascha: [00:16:36] That certainly was unintended intended. Look, this is such an interesting story, and I think I don't have billions of dollars, as you say. But the closest I've come is, you know, how you can buy the rights in quotation marks to a star for a friend. And that's such a popular graduation gift or. Yeah, yeah. Leaving prison is kind of part of a bit of a sinister undertone when you realise about the lack of rights that we actually have when it comes to anything outside of us. 

Bryce: [00:17:04] Yeah, that's right. 

Sascha: [00:17:05] We'll leave the story there for today. Bryce, thank you so much for joining me and thank you for joining us for today's edition of The Dive. Could you do us a favour? Send this episode if you enjoyed it, to a friend who you think might also love what we're doing at Equity Mates. Word of mouth is really our greatest asset and it just makes a world of difference to us. When you spread the word. If you're keen for us to research a story, then don't be shy. Make sure you contact us. Our email address is the dive at Equity Mates dot com or feel free to shoot us a message on social media. Bryce. Thanks so much for joining me. 

Bryce: [00:17:39] Thanks, Sascha. 

Sascha: [00:17:40] Until next time