Why Rugby League is in the middle of the US-China great power contest

Sascha: [00:00:02] Welcome to the Dive, the podcast that asks who said business news needs to be all business. I'm your host, Sascha Kelly. If I was to say to you there's a great power competition between China and the United States, what is the first thing that you would think of? Whatever the answer is, I'd hazard a guess. It wasn't rugby league, but Australia's National Rugby League competition has found itself right between China and the United States contest in the Pacific, and NRL executives are planning to cash in. It's Wednesday, the 29th of November and today I want to know how has Rugby league found itself in the middle of the US-China great power contest and how is that going to change the NRL? To talk about this today, it's our resident sporting correspondent. It's Alec Renehan. Alec, welcome to the dive. 

Alec: [00:00:52] Sascha I certainly wasn't great at playing sport, but I love to watch it. 

Sascha: [00:00:56] And you're great at talking about things that you're interested in. So check, check, check. All right. So I have set up a pretty big premise for the beginning of this episode, so I'm going to get you to walk us through the context. Get me through the landscape of this United States and China competing for allegiances in the Pacific. What's going on? 

Alec: [00:01:12] Yeah. So there are 15 independent Pacific Island nations located mostly around or below the equator that Australia's closest neighbours, only one Papua New Guinea, has a population greater than a million. So a lot of them are very small countries, but they are becoming more and more strategically important. The biggest reason is that 60% of maritime trade seaborne trade passes through the Indo-Pacific. And that isn't the only reason, though. The West and China are both really fighting for influence and I guess allegiance in the region. And the West don't want to see these nations fall into China's sphere of influence. I guess there's a few reasons for that. First of all, any hostile military presence. So if China has bases at some of these Pacific islands, they could threaten Australia and New Zealand's trade routes. Parts of the US, Guam and Hawaii are nearby and so could also be vulnerable if these nations fall into China's sphere of influence. And then finally, Washington national security experts like US defence planners, they have an island chain security concept and they sort of say that the more islands that a adversary has to get to to get to the United States, the harder it is to invade the United States. It's similar to Australia. You know, in World War two, Japan got stopped in PNG, Kokoda, and, you know, Australia is harder to invade because you have to island hop to get here.

Sascha: [00:02:41] But simultaneously, China has been working hard to build relations within the Pacific region.

Alec: [00:02:47] Yeah, this is what has got national security experts worried. According to Chinese government figures, it's trade with the Pacific region, mostly in seafood, wood and minerals expanded from just 153,000,000 in 1992 to 5.3 billion in 2021. So they're building economic ties with the region. And this outreach is part of China's effort to build a network of developing countries to take its side in global forums such as the UN. The US usually counts on support from mainland Europe, from East Asia and other allies like Australia. And China is trying to build a network across South America, Africa, the Pacific. A lot of places to, I guess, counter US influence in these forums. China also wants more and more support in the Indo-Pacific to help isolate Taiwan. Yeah, and so there's a number of reasons why China is, I guess, building a lot of ties and throwing a lot of money into this region. 

Sascha: [00:03:43] And their efforts in this space has scored some big wins. 

Alec: [00:03:47] Yes. So 2019, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati switched their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, which is a big move and important for China. That was the first step. 2022 was the big step. It really raised the stakes. The Solomon Islands signed a security pact with Beijing, the first in the region, and it raised fears in Australia and New Zealand and the US about a possible Chinese military base in the Pacific region. Mm hmm. China's foreign minister at the time, Wang Yi, visited ten other Pacific nations after that deal was signed and offered similar deals to them. None of them have been signed yet. I guess it centred the Pacific in this great power contest and this contest for influence in the region. 

Sascha: [00:04:36] So if you're listening to us talk about this and you're starting to think, what about rugby league? Yeah, you kind of set up the facade with this premise and now you're talking about China in the US. We're going to get there, are we? 

Alec: [00:04:48] Yeah, that's right. So China and Solomon Islands signed their pact in 2022, and that prompted a flurry of activity in the region diplomatic visits, pledges of aid cooperation. Asian in areas that were important to Pacific Islands, notably climate change. 

Audio Clip: [00:05:05] Anthony Albanese and Tuvalu's Prime Minister reaching an extraordinary pact, Australia agreeing to a resettlement program with Tuvalu as it stares at possible extinction this century in return for almost 300 special visas a year. Tuvalu will retain Australia as its security partner of choice, keeping Beijing at bay. 

Alec: [00:05:27] Appointment of new Envoys. Opening of new embassies. A number of Pacific Island leaders got invited to Washington, some to the White House. China establishes itself in regions with cash, with lots of cash, with promises of infrastructure projects and everything else. We're not going head to head with China financially, but that is a losing battle for Australia. It's even a losing battle for the US. Instead, Australia is trying to use its soft power to build relationships in the region. 

Sascha: [00:06:00] Okay, now I start to see where you're going. 

Alec: [00:06:02] Enter Rugby League. 

Sascha: [00:06:04] Yeah, this is sports diplomacy, basically. So this is the soft power efforts of a country to improve their image with another country. [00:06:11][7.7]

Alec: [00:06:12] Yeah. And I guess the best example of sports diplomacy is, ironically, between China and the United States. Yao Ming, have you heard of him? [00:06:18][6.7]

Sascha: [00:06:19] Yeah. Can't quite think of it, but I'm feeling like. Was that he really being at the Olympics for basketball?

Alec: [00:06:25] He was really big. 

Sascha: [00:06:26] Yeah, he's very tall. 

Alec: [00:06:28] So he is a Chinese basketballer. He made it in the NBA. It was great. He played for the Houston Rockets. In the eight years that he played in the NBA. One estimate we read suggested that basketball fans in China tripled. Whoa. And there's nothing that you can do to, I guess, build your image in the eyes of another country than these sort of cultural exchanges. Then, you know, all of these Chinese people who became NBA fans had would have had a much better view of America than before it. 

Sascha: [00:07:06] Yeah. And so for Australia in the Pacific, we're not going to chase the basketball dream. We're going to go down this rugby league route. 

Alec: [00:07:13] Yes. The Australian Government in August announced it would dip in $7 million to help fund the inaugural Pacific Championship, a rugby league tournament involving the men's and women's teams from Australia, the Cook Islands, Fiji, New Zealand, Samoa, Papua New Guinea and Tonga. But that's not all. Anthony Albanese, Australia's Prime Minister, thinks we can do more than just playing these Pacific Island nations in rugby league. Speaking on Sydney radio station. Ian Albo suggested a PNG based NRL team could help counter the growing rivalry with China. 

Audio Clip: [00:07:48] We know we have a bit of competitive tension in the region and engagement, if you like, in soft diplomacy, showing the relationship between Australia and our neighbours. That is so important. 

Sascha: [00:08:03] A Papua New Guinea based NRL team. I'm curious, you've listed a whole bunch of countries that are in the Pacific Island area. Why PNG? 

Alec: [00:08:12] Yeah. So first of all, PNGis the biggest Pacific island nation. I mean, aside from Australia, PNG has a population of about 10 million people. Next largest port, next largest is New Zealand, but then Fiji is just shy of a million. Secondly, proximity. PNG is Australia's closest neighbour, just four kilometres separates the tip of Australia to PNG. I was surprised by that. 

Sascha: [00:08:35] I could swim that. I mean, I won't. But you could. 

Alec: [00:08:39] Yeah, the water is mine. 

Sascha: [00:08:40] I'm not going to do that. What is? You know what I mean. 

Alec: [00:08:42] But thirdly, and probably most importantly for this conversation around rugby league, Papua New Guinea is the only country in the world which has rugby league as its national sport. Okay. And NRLplayers over there are seen as demigods. Yeah. Granting PNG its own natural team more than any diplomatic gesture, more than any invitation to the White House, more than any amount of Chinese one would win the hearts and minds of a nation. No one can compete with rugby league in PNG and that is why the Australian Government is right behind the idea. 

Sascha: [00:09:18] Yeah, and the NRL has been seen as a tool for a while in March of this year. The chairman of the Australian Rugby League, Peter V'Landys, told Triple M radio quote, It's no secret that the Federal Government has asked us to look at a PNG Pacific team and we are going to look at that and see if it's feasible and make a decision pretty soon, end quote. And he went on to say Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister, is very, very keen to see this plan up and going and it's very important to the security of Australia and the situation in the Pacific. And if rugby league can help, we'll certainly be there. I mean there's no strong accords than that either. Alec. He was saying that in March. So if fast forwarding nine months, how is NRL planning to be used? 

Alec: [00:10:02] Yes. So right now the NRL has 17 times. The plan has always been to introduce an 18th team and they actually have plans to get to 20 times by the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. And you know, the front runners for these would be a third Brisbane team. The North Sydney Bears are always lobbying to get back into rugby league. So there's a number of teams in Australia that want to play professionally. But Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape asked the Australian Government for an NRL team by 2025 to mark the 50th anniversary of PNG's independence from Australia, and Albanese is determined to deliver it in the context of the competition for influence in the Pacific. Suddenly, the NRL's 18th team goes from a sporting question to a national security priority, and it's seen as a key tool to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific. 

Sascha: [00:10:57] Well, this all sounds really great in theory, but there's certainly practicalities, like will players want to live and play in PNG? Is there sufficient infrastructure stadiums and talent pathways? And ultimately, I mean, you've got to ask the question, who's going to be paying for it? So let's unpack some of that after the break. Welcome back to the dive. Today we're talking about how the NRA has found itself in the middle of the US-China great power competition in the Pacific. The Australian Government has been lobbying the NRL to introduce a Papua New Guinea team as the 18th NRLteam. I assume then Alec, if you're going to lobby for this, you've got to be throwing some money in as part of the deal as well. You've got to at least attempt to foot the bill.

Alec: [00:11:48] Yes. So the Australian Government are putting their money where their mouth is. They've offered about $5.5 million to grow the game in PNG. Reportedly that is just the tip of the iceberg, though according to Fox Sports, Anthony Albanese has privately indicated that his Government is prepared to help underwrite a team for up to $25 million a year. Now to put that in context, the cost of running an NRLteam. This estimate comes from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute because they don't normally write about NRL, but they are now they've estimated that the cost to run a team is about $33 million per year. So if the Australian Government privately have said they're willing to tip you in about 25, you can see that this is going to be a half page team and half Anthony Albanese team.

Sascha: [00:12:41] Yeah, you just need a couple of sponsors and probably your uncle. 

Alec: [00:12:43] Yeah, and that is the other thing. There are deep pocketed corporations in PNG that have indicated they're willing to chip in. So for example, one of the current major sponsors of PNG rugby league is ExxonMobil. You may have heard of them. Yeah. Some other big resource companies operating in PNG, Santos and Newcrest. Because of the affinity for rugby league in paying, there'll be no shortage of corporates that want to, you know, improve their brand image and associate themselves with the game. 

Sascha: [00:13:12] Yeah, it would be like a home run if you're a marketing executive sitting in one of those offices. I feel like this is a great opportunity. So money may not be an issue, but there's got to be some practical questions that we've got to ask about this.

Alec: [00:13:26] Yeah, there are certainly some practical questions. So to start with, Papua New Guinea already has a team in the Queensland Cup, which is the level below the rugby league. They're called the PNG hunters. And so they have some infrastructure, but it's a big step up to move to a professional rugby league team and it's always the knock on this idea has always been that it's unfeasible due to issues around the infrastructure, logistics of travelling to and from and getting all the teams to and from. High crime rates have been called out in particular in PNG. And then lower per capita wealth of spectators has also been called out as such. Taking on those concerns, the proposal from Anthony Albanese and the Australian Government is a Port Moresby based team. So Port Moresby capital, Pangea, a Port Moresby based team, but with games to also be played in Cairns. 

Sascha: [00:14:21] Okay, still a fair amount of travel for those players. And another question I have is would any players want to go up to PNG to play? 

Alec: [00:14:29] There's no doubt it would be a challenge, but the chance to play professionally, to have your career be a professional sportsperson is a massive drawcard and at the end of the day money talks and there may be a fair bit of money outside of your playing salary in PNG. Justin Olam is one of the most famous players of Papua New Guinea descent. He's one of PNG's most recognised faces, just generally, not just in sport. And reports we've read suggest he makes more money from sponsorships and endorsements than any other player in the NRL. Okay, so you know, the NRL knows it's going to be a hard sell even if there's money on the table. And so they're working on development pathways in PNG. They want to have more domestic talent playing in that team. To that end, they've sent a former NRL assistant coach to head up an elite player development program in PNG. And they've sort of started recruiting the best players from schools, placed them in under 14 and under 16 academies. And they hope that in the next few years that'll start to bear fruit. [

Sascha: [00:15:39] And we've seen this from other sporting codes. You know, that grassroots development pathway is really crucial to kind of building a long term vision for the game. Yeah. So what next? 

Alec: [00:15:49] Well, we're really waiting until 2025 when the NRL announce their 18th team. So we've. 

Sascha: [00:15:54] Got to wait another year for them to announce this. 

Alec: [00:15:56] Year. But it's seeming shorter and shorter odds that PNG she will get over the line. It seems likely at the moment. Now obviously things could change that in 2025. The NRL announces Pangea as the 18th team. That's the year that Page celebrates its 50 years of independence from Australia with this big announcement. It's likely then that the new team. Joins the NRL in 2027. The majority of the home games will likely be played in Port Moresby, but there will be a secondary headquarters and stadium in Cairns to help with logistics and travel issues. And then finally, what next? Australian and US defence experts hope that professional rugby league in PNG can outweigh China's money in the region.

Sascha: [00:16:44] Now they go. I've got to say I love this about the dive. NRL and the US and China all being on the same flight for this episode was not on my bingo card for this year, but I'm always happy to be surprised. 

Alec: [00:16:56] Yeah, that's it. 

Sascha: [00:16:57] Well, let's leave it there for today. Alec, as always, what really helps us is we jump in your podcast player and give us a five star review. Really helps us be discovered by new ears. And Alec, thanks so much for joining me. 

Alec: [00:17:09] Thanks, Sascha.