Macquarie’s 16 recession-proof stocks

Bryce: [00:00:15] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast that follows our journey of investing, whether you're an absolute beginner or approaching Warren Buffett status. Our aim is to help break down your barriers from beginning to dividend. My name is Bryce and as always, I'm joined by my equity buddy, Ren. How are you going on? [00:00:30][15.4]

Alec: [00:00:31] Very good. Bryce first episode for F23. [00:00:33][2.3]

Bryce: [00:00:35] Yes. Happy New Year. Yes. What a party. And celebration we have that we always talk about. [00:00:41][5.9]

Alec: [00:00:41] We should do something for end of financial year or like start a financial year do. [00:00:46][4.6]

Bryce: [00:00:47] But it's just. It's just like we never do. We never do. [00:00:49][2.8]

Alec: [00:00:50] You do your talks and you move on with your life. Back in the corporate world, there was a bit more going on. But here at Equity Mates it's just another day. Yeah. [00:00:57][7.6]

Bryce: [00:00:58] Too much stuff going on, but happy financial year. New financial year to to those out there that do celebrate it a little bit more than we do here at Equity Mates. [00:01:07][9.4]

Bryce: [00:01:08] But so taking it as a holiday, I think it's. [00:01:11][3.5]

Bryce: [00:01:11] The holidays a a big show today. So we're going to start off with a market update and try and answer the question is inflation over? A very provocative start. Macquarie have released six stocks that they classify to be a recession proof portfolio. So we're checking on that. Can't have an episode without talking about Bridgewater Associates. [00:01:30][18.5]

Bryce: [00:01:31] We've had the majority of the episodes like I've spoken about them. I had. [00:01:35][3.9]

Bryce: [00:01:35] A look at some of their top holdings and there's a bit of a what the moment. [00:01:38][2.7]

Bryce: [00:01:38] There's a let's let's just. [00:01:39][1.2]

Alec: [00:01:39] Say that even the best investors make common. [00:01:41][1.9]

Bryce: [00:01:42] Mistakes. Yes. [00:01:42][0.7]

Bryce: [00:01:43] So I'm going to we're going to chat through that and then close out with the conversation around the Widowmaker trade. [00:01:48][5.6]

Bryce: [00:01:50] What that is. [00:01:50][0.4]

Bryce: [00:01:50] Stay tuned. But then before we jump in, we've we've launched another thing here at Equity Mates. [00:01:56][6.1]

Alec: [00:01:57] In case we didn't spend enough time looking at our phones. Already, we have launched a new Instagram account, the dive, the new podcast that we've been doing, talking about business news. If Equity Mates is all about investing, the dive is a little bit broader. It's about the world of business. We've created an Instagram account to go with it. The Dive Dot Business News. Go and check it out. We are sharing news stories from around the globe, making them hopefully digestible and accessible. Yeah, check it out. The dive to business news. [00:02:30][32.2]

Bryce: [00:02:30] That's it. Multiple news stories a day from around the world. [00:02:33][3.1]

Alec: [00:02:34] Yeah. Keep you will keep you up to date with what I was going to say with what's going on in the world, with what we can keep up with. [00:02:40][6.8]

Bryce: [00:02:41] What we can keep up with. [00:02:42][0.8]

Bryce: [00:02:42] Some of the I would say some of the different business headlines that you might not see on the front page of the AFR or we're trying to show everyone the excitement that business news is. [00:02:51][9.5]

Alec: [00:02:52] Yeah, yeah, it's exciting. It's interesting. But the other point of frustration for us has been that so much business news is short term. Yeah, you could take a roll or you could take a red pen to the AFR or to the Wall Street Journal to the Financial Times. Financial Times actually pretty good. And just cut two thirds of the stories out and say this isn't going to matter next week. Yeah, and that's frustrating. And I think that turns a lot of people off. And so we want to really focus on that remaining third of stories and I've just pulled that third out of it. But those stories that do matter and that we can really learn things from long term. So it's a big mission. We're trying to figure it out, right? [00:03:33][41.3]

Bryce: [00:03:34] So check it out. The Dive Dot Business News. If you're also not subscribe to the podcast, jump on to your podcast player and subscribe to the dive as well. So Ren, is inflation over a bit of a market update because obviously we're. [00:03:49][14.8]

Bryce: [00:03:49] Done the way through. [00:03:51][1.7]

Bryce: [00:03:51] The last couple of months, inflation has been roaring. We've seen multiple interest rate rises from central banks around. [00:03:58][6.9]

Bryce: [00:03:58] Inflation. [00:03:58][0.0]

Alec: [00:03:59] Has been the word of 2022. [00:04:00][0.8]

Bryce: [00:04:00] Absolutely. And there is some indicators that you could argue might lead to some suggestions that inflation is over. [00:04:10][9.2]

Alec: [00:04:10] Well, Bryce, you know, I'm a fashionista at heart. You know, if I wasn't doing an investing show, I would probably be doing a fashion YouTube. And I. [00:04:18][7.5]

Bryce: [00:04:18] Have been on the green while. [00:04:19][0.9]

Alec: [00:04:20] I am very closely watching the raw input costs that go into the fashion world. Yes. Now, you've been watching the price of cotton. [00:04:29][9.2]

Bryce: [00:04:29] I have, actually. [00:04:30][0.4]

Bryce: [00:04:31] You got so. [00:04:32][1.0]

Alec: [00:04:33] Cotton got rug pulled this one. [00:04:35][1.5]

Bryce: [00:04:35] Time. [00:04:35][0.0]

Alec: [00:04:37] Yeah, well it collapsed. I mean, the the price of cotton is a commodity that's traded and it just dropped. It's down like 30% in a month. Over a month. But in June. Yeah. Just straight down. [00:04:50][12.6]

Bryce: [00:04:51] Off a cliff. Yeah. [00:04:51][0.6]

Bryce: [00:04:52] What led to that inflation so. [00:04:54][1.6]

Alec: [00:04:56] Well no, I think this is a broader trend we're saying in a number of commodities the last sort of month or from sort of early May, we've seen commodities fall. And in an inflationary environment, you would say commodity prices should rise because the value of. Money is less, and if commodities hold their value, they will go up. And that's sort of what we saw. We saw oil and natural gas go up because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and all of that. But we've seen across the board, commodities have been really strong in 2022, coal, iron ore, all the agricultural commodities, but they're softening oil down 7% in the last month, coal down 5% in the last month. Copper down 13% in the last month. Iron ore down 9% in the last month. What's going on? [00:05:46][49.6]

Bryce: [00:05:47] Yeah, well, it's interesting. My key takeaway from this, though, is that this can all change pretty quickly, particularly oil. I feel that all it takes is for expectation again to be to be missed. And so what I'm feeling is happening at the moment, I'm sensing that the expectation for inflation numbers is going to be softer. And all it's going to take is for the the the inflation numbers to be higher than expectation. And bang, we're back to three or 4% drops on the market overnight and those sorts of things. So I guess you could say that the flow on effect for natural gas down 20% oil particularly is. [00:06:24][37.6]

Bryce: [00:06:24] Yeah, that. [00:06:25][0.2]

Bryce: [00:06:25] Big import. [00:06:25][0.2]

Bryce: [00:06:26] That was. [00:06:26][0.6]

Bryce: [00:06:26] Probably the key. [00:06:27][0.3]

Alec: [00:06:27] I think I actually said natural gas that we should make that clear. Natural gas down 26% in the last month. [00:06:31][4.4]

Bryce: [00:06:32] Yeah, pretty significant. But for me oil is the big one. A lot goes into to the oil price. Well, I mean, a lot of time and energy from analysts going to the oil price given the implications it has across many businesses. And then we know an interesting chart that our Canadian economist Boys Thomas posted this week to show the relationship between oil price and the Nasdaq. When oil is down, Nasdaq is up and vice versa. So I think he called the bottom. [00:07:02][30.1]

Bryce: [00:07:04] Now. [00:07:04][0.0]

Alec: [00:07:05] I think you said the really important thing there, which was expectations. So I don't think it's a coincidence that early May when some of these commodity prices started to soften, was around the same time that central banks rhetoric and actions started to harden. So if we think back to May, what did we say? We saw a 50 basis point rate increase in the US. So rate increases in Australia in June. We've seen rate increases everywhere as well, mostly everywhere, not Japan. We'll get to that later. And alongside that, we've seen the central bankers, one say that they were wrong about inflation being transitory and to get pretty aggressive in what they are saying. The the big three, the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, Jay Powell, the Fed Reserve chair. And I cannot forget the third guy, the Bank of England Governor Mark Andrew Bailey, don't know where I got Mark from. The three of them spoke at a conference last night when we were recording this and basically all of them said the same thing. The era of moderate inflation and low interest rates is over, and we need to take drastic action to break the back of inflation. And I think the market's saying their actions and hearing them and that's probably why commodity prices across the board a softening a little. Yeah. [00:08:28][83.0]

Bryce: [00:08:29] Speaking of central banks, Ivan, I just have to get a sense, too. I have no time for the RBA. [00:08:36][6.8]

Bryce: [00:08:38] But honestly, I'm here for the RBA. [00:08:42][4.8]

Alec: [00:08:43] Equity Mates base. [00:08:44][0.6]

Bryce: [00:08:45] But they've just got it so wrong all, all the time. They just get it so wrong. Yeah, I just don't understand. [00:08:51][5.8]

Bryce: [00:08:52] Do you reckon you could do a better job? [00:08:52][0.9]

Bryce: [00:08:54] No. Well, I don't know what goes on behind closed doors, but if all they're doing is one meeting a month to determine what happens with rates. Look, they just get it so wrong. And so. And so every time. Every single time. Yeah. I don't know. I don't feel like they've ever front run anything too truly. And I could be wrong here. Like, I'm. I don't have decades of experience. [00:09:15][20.9]

Alec: [00:09:15] No, no, I think. I think you're right. And I think they'd be reactive. I feel like. So Jay Powell has come out and basically said we had no idea. And I think Phil Schiller. [00:09:25][9.4]

Bryce: [00:09:25] Yeah. [00:09:25][0.0]

Alec: [00:09:26] I think he said the same thing as well, didn't he? [00:09:28][1.7]

Bryce: [00:09:28] Yeah, but it didn't. In hindsight. [00:09:29][0.9]

Bryce: [00:09:29] Didn't you get. [00:09:30][0.2]

Alec: [00:09:30] Grilled in like an interview with Leigh Sales recently? [00:09:32][2.0]

Bryce: [00:09:32] I think so, yeah. But I mean he was saying, you know, no rates until 2024. [00:09:36][3.6]

Bryce: [00:09:37] That's that's like this stuff up. Absolutely. [00:09:39][2.1]

Alec: [00:09:40] So and I mean like we talk about it academically, you know, like they don't get it right. But like a lot of people took that as a commitment they borrowed on the back of it. [00:09:51][10.3]

Bryce: [00:09:52] Yeah. Like, it's. [00:09:53][0.8]

Alec: [00:09:53] Actually really not great. [00:09:54][1.3]

Bryce: [00:09:54] It's pretty significant. Yeah. And, and I know that their commentary has, has serious implications for how people make investment decisions. Yeah. So, yeah, getting it so wrong for me, it's, it's, it's and then they come out with commentary around oh now you know, we're starting might see inflation softening those sorts of things you're going to take it. The grain of salt. [00:10:13][19.0]

Bryce: [00:10:14] Yeah. [00:10:14][0.0]

Alec: [00:10:15] So we'll park that until we get felt while on show. [00:10:18][3.5]

Bryce: [00:10:20] Good point. But I was flicking through. [00:10:23][3.2]

Alec: [00:10:24] Commodity prices before this episode to have a look. Some of the commodities that are traded are pretty fascinating. Okay. What do you reckon? Orange juice, not oranges. Orange juice. [00:10:36][11.9]

Bryce: [00:10:37] I didn't know that was a come on. [00:10:37][0.8]

Bryce: [00:10:38] Neither. What do you. [00:10:39][1.4]

Alec: [00:10:39] Reckon it's done in the last month? [00:10:40][0.9]

Bryce: [00:10:41] Um. Skyrocketed. [00:10:42][0.8]

Alec: [00:10:43] Up 1%, but up 50% year on year. [00:10:46][2.6]

Bryce: [00:10:46] Wow. Yeah. [00:10:47][0.7]

Bryce: [00:10:48] Does that correlate with the price of oranges? [00:10:49][1.2]

Bryce: [00:10:49] Couldn't tell you. [00:10:50][0.6]

Alec: [00:10:51] I can't actually say in oranges on here. The price of potatoes have absolutely tanked in the past month, down 38%. [00:10:58][6.9]

Bryce: [00:11:00] Okay. [00:11:00][0.0]

Alec: [00:11:01] I wonder if marketers will pass that cost saving on to us. [00:11:03][2.4]

Bryce: [00:11:03] No. [00:11:03][0.0]

Alec: [00:11:06] Sunflower oil down 21%. That's actually a really important one because the Ukraine is a major global supplier of sunflower oil. And on the dive, actually, we did an episode talking about how a third of UK fish and chip shops might have to close and part of it because they couldn't get cooking oil or cheap cooking oil. So it's good to see that price has come down. Canola has also come down. Cotton We spoke about palm oil weight down one day or down six times in the last month. I mean, there are some some commodities are up, but generally things are down, which is good. [00:11:39][33.1]

Bryce: [00:11:39] So, yeah, a nice. [00:11:40][0.6]

Alec: [00:11:41] Tee up probably to do with Sri Lanka. [00:11:43][1.9]

Bryce: [00:11:44] Okay. [00:11:44][0.0]

Alec: [00:11:44] Yeah. Because you. Have you seen what's going on over there? Uh, no, with the like so obviously in this economic crisis, but now they're rationing field such an extent that like, people can't get any. Like it's at that point now. So it's like it's almost like a de facto lockdown because. [00:12:01][16.4]

Bryce: [00:12:02] Wow. [00:12:02][0.0]

Alec: [00:12:02] People just can't get fuel. [00:12:03][0.6]

Bryce: [00:12:03] Cause they can't go. And. [00:12:03][0.6]

Alec: [00:12:04] Yeah, yeah, it's pretty devastating. [00:12:05][1.1]

Bryce: [00:12:05] Yeah. [00:12:05][0.0]

Bryce: [00:12:06] Well, speaking of prices down again, just to close out this segment, um, you'd remember when we were doing our jobs channel late last year, there were a couple of them. You know, Lambo was one that. [00:12:17][10.9]

Bryce: [00:12:18] Was. [00:12:18][0.0]

Bryce: [00:12:18] Skyrocketing. So there was a Bloomberg article that kind of recapped on some of the, I guess, some of the products or goods and services that skyrocketed late last year and where they're at now. So trucking, we know, absolutely went ballistic in the second half of 2020 into 2021. Trucking the price of trucking per mile or per kilometre is drastically dropping in 2022. Yeah, shipping rates have come right back. [00:12:46][28.0]

Bryce: [00:12:47] Okay. [00:12:47][0.0]

Bryce: [00:12:47] Which was I remember that was a massive concern during COVID shipping with through the roof lumber has I wouldn't say fallen off a cliff, but it's down from about 1200 and whatever it was from memory per what is lumber sold in ton. [00:13:03][15.8]

Bryce: [00:13:04] No matter it would be it. [00:13:06][2.1]

Alec: [00:13:06] Would be sold like bespoke. Uh he U.S. dollars per thousand board feet. [00:13:13][6.9]

Bryce: [00:13:15] Yeah. [00:13:15][0.0]

Bryce: [00:13:16] So it's down from about 1200 back to about 500. So yeah, I frequently down and Rolexes have really chilled as well. Really? [00:13:24][8.1]

Bryce: [00:13:24] Yeah. [00:13:24][0.0]

Alec: [00:13:25] I used to work with the guy that collected Rolexes and I just didn't pay it at all. [00:13:29][3.7]

Bryce: [00:13:29] I go back home. [00:13:30][0.8]

Bryce: [00:13:32] So look, I guess the takeaway here is watch this space. We know we're going to have an update coming soon on inflation numbers. And there's always a, of course, a monthly meeting between central banks as they determine what to do. So, yeah, watch this space, I guess. [00:13:48][16.3]

Bryce: [00:13:49] Yeah. [00:13:49][0.0]

Bryce: [00:13:50] Uh, moving on. So Ren. [00:13:51][1.2]

Alec: [00:13:52] Well, I think before just to answer the question that we started with, we asked, is inflation over? I don't think we can say it's over. Commodity prices are falling, but a lot of the issues are still there. [00:14:03][11.0]

Bryce: [00:14:03] Yeah, absolutely. So Ren moving on, Macquarie have released some research done around some stocks that perform or sectors that generally perform well during a recession and they've created a 16 stock recession proof portfolio. [00:14:18][15.1]

Bryce: [00:14:19] Yes, this is Macquarie. [00:14:20][1.3]

Alec: [00:14:21] Yeah, not. [00:14:21][0.4]

Bryce: [00:14:22] Us. [00:14:22][0.0]

Alec: [00:14:24] It will be. Yeah, it's an interesting list, it's all ASX. But before we get into that they there were some interesting findings from previous recessions. [00:14:33][9.1]

Bryce: [00:14:34] Yeah. So they kind of split recessions and I think we caveat this by saying there's some conversation around the states going to recession. Will Australia today say but the recession word is certainly out there, which is why they've done this? And the Macquarie analysts split recessions into two parts. And the first positive part is obviously that contraction phase where economic growth really, really slows down. And if we're to be technical, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I don't think Australia has had their first quarter of negative GDP growth at the moment. The states I think, have just. But they had a look at. The sectors that perform well in this sort of contraction phase. So the best sectors are staples and utilities. They outperformed 13 of the past 15 times we've gone into recession. [00:15:24][50.8]

Alec: [00:15:25] And give us an example of eight consumer. [00:15:28][2.9]

Bryce: [00:15:28] Staples. [00:15:28][0.0]

Bryce: [00:15:29] Woolworths, Coles, utilities is your power. [00:15:32][3.5]

Alec: [00:15:33] Like angels and. [00:15:34][0.8]

Bryce: [00:15:34] Origin's. [00:15:34][0.0]

Bryce: [00:15:35] Transurban. [00:15:35][0.0]

Alec: [00:15:37] Now, that would be the infrastructure. Yeah. [00:15:38][1.7]

Bryce: [00:15:39] Health and telecom outperformed 12 out of 15 times and then gold outperformed five out of eight cases. And it has the second highest average return during a construction phase of a recession. Whether or not that's playing out at the moment. [00:15:54][14.8]

Alec: [00:15:54] Though, I think it's holding up okay. Digital gold, not so much, but. [00:15:58][4.1]

Bryce: [00:16:00] Digital gold definitely not. But health with, you know, CSL, for example, telecom, Telstra and gold is gold. On the other end of the spectrum though Ren industries to perhaps be very careful of in the contraction phase of a recession is our industrials. They have never outperformed and diversified financials and basic materials have only outperformed two or 15 times. So there are sectors that I guess don't respond well to a contraction in GDP. [00:16:31][31.0]

Alec: [00:16:31] You think about the mechanisms there like that. That isn't surprising that like basic materials, like like commodity producers and stuff like that and industrials that are tied to like the overall output of the economy like that, that's not surprising that they don't perform well when there's less spending and less economic activity. And diversified financials, like a lot of them, are correlated to. [00:16:53][21.8]

Bryce: [00:16:54] The stock. [00:16:55][0.1]

Alec: [00:16:55] Market, also the stock market. [00:16:56][1.4]

Bryce: [00:16:56] So that then leads to the next question ran around. Well, what are they actually putting into these? [00:17:01][4.8]

Bryce: [00:17:02] Yeah, this is the. [00:17:02][0.6]

Alec: [00:17:03] This is the interesting thing. So you gave us a few buckets there. Consumer staples, utilities, health care, telecom and gold. Yeah. Now Macquarie haven't quite followed their own buckets in this, but they broadly have. Yeah. So let's start with consumer staples. [00:17:21][18.4]

Bryce: [00:17:22] So they have three stocks in consumer staples are all very well well known. [00:17:26][4.1]

Alec: [00:17:27] And one notable omission I must say. [00:17:28][1.6]

Bryce: [00:17:31] They probably just wanted to give these some airtime time. [00:17:33][2.0]

Bryce: [00:17:33] I can only tell us what they got. [00:17:34][1.5]

Bryce: [00:17:35] So they've got the only stock in there is Woolworths. I'm not kidding. They don't have Woolworths in there. Surprisingly, Coles group endeavour which spin off from Woolworths and Metcash. So Coles we know, is one of Australia's largest retailers, Endeavour Group. They own BWC, Stand, Murphys and H largest, the largest owner of hotels and pubs in Australia. And Metcash is IGA. [00:18:04][29.6]

Alec: [00:18:06] Yeah. The IGA supply chain banner. [00:18:09][3.0]

Bryce: [00:18:09] Yeah, yeah, yeah. [00:18:10][0.7]

Alec: [00:18:10] Yeah. Because then like IGA is a. [00:18:12][1.6]

Bryce: [00:18:13] French franchise and stuff like. [00:18:14][1.4]

Bryce: [00:18:15] That. Yeah. They feed into into Argos so they've gone heavy on, on, on retail obviously it's consumer staples. Yes. They have left out Woolworths. Not sure why. When I think about recession, these are the companies that always come, come to mind first because people always need to buy food. [00:18:33][18.1]

Bryce: [00:18:33] Yeah. [00:18:33][0.0]

Bryce: [00:18:34] So they're going to stick around. What are your thoughts? [00:18:35][1.4]

Alec: [00:18:36] I mean, it's a pretty unsurprising list and I don't have a lot of thoughts, to be honest. I had a look. So we love Ticker here. Tkr and I just was having a bit of a look at some of these companies on ticker and say what I could find. I was actually trying to see if Macquarie held them and you can actually say all the major ownerships, but there's just like there's so many and all the providers and Vanguard and Jp morgan, so great to own some of them, but then it's like the lower end for clients. But it's funny, like there's a bunch of stuff you can say in here, you can see when insiders bought. So for Coles, Steven Cain, the CEO, dropped about a million and a half dollars. [00:19:21][44.4]

Bryce: [00:19:21] On Coles shares. [00:19:22][0.8]

Alec: [00:19:22] In August last year. [00:19:24][1.6]

Bryce: [00:19:24] Nice. [00:19:24][0.0]

Bryce: [00:19:25] Good sign. [00:19:25][0.2]

Alec: [00:19:26] Not a good time. [00:19:26][0.5]

Bryce: [00:19:27] Not a great time, but. [00:19:28][0.8]

Alec: [00:19:28] Because it actually held up. Okay. He is not down too much from August last year. Yeah. I mean, look, those three companies for me a pretty, pretty standard. [00:19:38][9.5]

Bryce: [00:19:38] Yeah. Yeah. [00:19:39][0.5]

Bryce: [00:19:39] If you're if you're investing with well depending on what your ESG lenses you might mightn't be too happy to say endeavour group in there because they obviously are the operator of probably the biggest group of pokies in Australia now. Yeah. So yeah, infrastructure around was the next bucket that Macquarie came with. So four stocks here, Transurban, Origin Energy, Amcor and Aurora. So Transurban the operator of of. All roads here in Australia. Origin Energy. Windows. Origin Energy. Amcor is. [00:20:17][37.7]

Alec: [00:20:17] Packaging. [00:20:17][0.0]

Bryce: [00:20:18] Packaging. That's right. And Aurora is similar packaging. [00:20:23][4.6]

Bryce: [00:20:23] Is it packaging? [00:20:23][0.2]

Alec: [00:20:24] Yeah. Yeah. So Macquarie obviously bullish on the packaging industry. [00:20:27][3.4]

Bryce: [00:20:28] Yeah. Yeah, yeah. [00:20:29][0.8]

Bryce: [00:20:30] I wonder I wonder what it is that makes that sort of recession proof. [00:20:34][4.2]

Alec: [00:20:35] Well I think like the same the same logic that applies to consumer staples. The reason that Coles and Metcash and Endeavour hold up is because people need to keep buying food. And for those companies to get the food. [00:20:51][15.6]

Bryce: [00:20:52] It needs to be packed, it's packaged. [00:20:53][1.7]

Alec: [00:20:54] So it's really Aurora, Amcor and then it's pallets as well. [00:20:57][3.5]

Bryce: [00:20:58] Don't get me started on Transurban. [00:21:03][4.3]

Alec: [00:21:03] Not surprising. Transurban is the you know, the quintessential it's like the economic textbook example of an inflation hedge. It's like, you know, ability to raise prices and inelastic demand and all of that. So it's not surprising that any of them are on there. But again, like not a lot to say that there is a really interesting story around origin and the energy transition, and that's probably a whole other overlay that you have to put over any company involved in energy in Australia at the moment. But I don't think it's surprising that Macquarie put Origin and not. [00:21:38][34.5]

Bryce: [00:21:38] AG Yeah, yeah, yeah. Origin AGL that makes that makes sense. So consumer staples, infrastructure, their third was health care. So I have three stocks in healthcare, CSL, mind you, these are all Australian stocks we should say CSL, Ramsay Health Care, Ramsay Ramsay. [00:21:55][17.2]

Bryce: [00:21:56] Health. [00:21:56][0.0]

Bryce: [00:21:56] Care and ResMed, three pretty well known Australian healthcare stocks. Now they've decided for their gold exposure to go with two. [00:22:08][11.5]

Alec: [00:22:08] Yeah. And just just quickly on Ramsay, it may not be listed for long because KKR are trying to buy. [00:22:13][5.1]

Bryce: [00:22:14] In for their gold exposure. They've gone with gold miners, Newcrest Mining and Northern Star. [00:22:19][5.2]

Bryce: [00:22:20] Yeah. [00:22:20][0.0]

Bryce: [00:22:20] And then food. And I think this is more actual food production rather than sale of food. But they've gone for GrainCorp, United Malt Group Elders and Costco Group United Malt Corp. [00:22:38][17.7]

Alec: [00:22:39] United Malt Group. [00:22:40][0.7]

Bryce: [00:22:40] Group. What are they? They are brewers and distillers in North America. [00:22:45][4.5]

Bryce: [00:22:45] Yeah. [00:22:45][0.0]

Bryce: [00:22:46] Wow. There you go. Well, they they serve the evolving demands of brewers and distillers in North America. They go. [00:22:52][6.5]

Alec: [00:22:53] So the production, sale and distribution of bagged malt, hops, yeast and Ajax. [00:22:58][5.2]

Bryce: [00:22:59] There you go. [00:22:59][0.3]

Alec: [00:23:00] Yeah. So basically what I'm taking from this list is that Macquarie are pretty bullish on two things holding up the demand for alcohol and you've got like United Malt Group leading into an Endeavour group leading into an Aurora and an AM called a packager and box it out leading into an endeavour or a Coles to sell it. [00:23:20][20.3]

Bryce: [00:23:20] Yeah. [00:23:20][0.0]

Alec: [00:23:21] And so demand for alcohol and then demand for food and that's why you've got like a GrainCorp or you've got elders with the land and then you got like Costa Group and GrainCorp or Costa Group growing the thing, GrainCorp trading the thing and then packaging it up in an Amcor and then an Aurora and then selling it at a Coles or an. [00:23:39][17.6]

Bryce: [00:23:39] Idea and then a side dish of health care because everyone still needs that as well. [00:23:42][3.9]

Bryce: [00:23:43] Because if you. [00:23:43][0.4]

Alec: [00:23:43] Eat too much and you drink too much, then you need health. [00:23:46][2.5]

Bryce: [00:23:46] Care. Yeah, that's the type of analysis that goes into building a portfolio. [00:23:50][4.1]

Bryce: [00:23:51] But anyway, there are six stocks aligned with the sectors that they've done some analysis on that shows, I guess outperformance in times of a contraction. Now I guess keep in mind as well that we're not we're not in a recession at the moment, but that's just some analysis they did to show what might happen. [00:24:10][19.7]

Alec: [00:24:11] And just keep in mind that so many of these are lists published seem to anchor to large cap stocks. [00:24:17][6.6]

Bryce: [00:24:18] Yeah. Yeah. Like side. [00:24:20][2.1]

Bryce: [00:24:20] Effects to. [00:24:21][0.3]

Bryce: [00:24:21] That. Well, this is at least this is at least a few different names. [00:24:25][3.9]

Alec: [00:24:25] Yeah. The notable omissions are things like no banks or financials and stuff like that. But Livewire published a list of top 20 inflation hedges and we put it off on our Instagram because I just thought it was so funny. The top five. So if this rings a bell BHP, CSL, Macquarie, Woodside, Commonwealth Bank, it's. [00:24:50][25.0]

Bryce: [00:24:51] The top five. [00:24:51][0.3]

Bryce: [00:24:51] It's like the five biggest companies. [00:24:52][0.9]

Alec: [00:24:53] Obviously Macquarie isn't in the top five, but like. [00:24:57][3.3]

Bryce: [00:24:57] It's just like this is the biggest companies. [00:24:59][1.5]

Bryce: [00:25:01] That's so boring anyway. So that, that's, that's the six stocks from Macquarie it is worth mentioning and this is something that we've spoken about over the last couple of weeks or at least nodded. They have suggested that the biggest thing they're keeping an eye on at the moment is actually corporate earnings, because we all know what happens when corporate earnings downgrades start to come in and when those also also when those downgrades are more than expectations. And so with everything that's going on and on with inflation at the moment and I guess broader macroeconomics, we might start to see, you know, downgrade on balance sheets and those sorts of things. [00:25:39][38.7]

Alec: [00:25:40] So yeah, you know, July will be the moment because we'll start getting American Q2 earnings this month and then it's also confession season in Australia because we probably won't get earnings until August in Australia. Yeah, but if companies if companies need to downgrade their forecasts, they'll do it in July. So yeah, this month we're. [00:26:02][22.7]

Bryce: [00:26:02] Going to you. [00:26:03][0.3]

Bryce: [00:26:03] Say. [00:26:03][0.0]

Alec: [00:26:03] This month we'll learn a lot and some of the numbers. So for example, Bed, Bath and Beyond reported when this is out last week. But yesterday as we're talking, revenue sales down 25%. Wow. Big box retailer in the States. I'm like, is that a sign of consumer weakness, like weakness on the consumer balance sheet? Bed, Bath and Beyond is like homewares and stuff like that, very much consumer discretionary. You stopped buying new towels before you stop buying food or is that just a poorly run business that is struggling? And so it's probably the Bed Bath Beyond in particular is pulling on business. So that probably isn't a great indication. But like Walmart, target, Amazon, like they're all to come. [00:26:47][43.8]

Bryce: [00:26:48] Yeah, we'll definitely say it. I feel like it's going to be a two or three month. Easily a two or three or four month lag for consumer confidence is now getting pretty bad. It's just it's just going to start flowing into into these consumer discretionary stocks. [00:27:02][14.8]

Alec: [00:27:03] It's just so funny because you remember at the start of the year, everyone was like the consumer balance sheet has never been stronger. People have saved so much during the last two years. And there's all this pent up demand, all this pent up savings and liquid, and then things turn really quickly. And obviously, like there are reasons why that has happened. Energy prices are so high, food prices are rising. General inflation across the economy like that. Yeah, high interest rates like that all weakens the consumer balance sheet. But it is just funny. It's a real reminder that you've got to take the day to day news headlines with a grain of salt, because if you had invested on the back of the consumer balance sheet has never been stronger, you would have piled into the consumer discretionary stocks thinking that there's a lot of pent up demand that's going to be released. [00:27:52][49.3]

Bryce: [00:27:54] But that would. [00:27:54][0.3]

Bryce: [00:27:54] Still be true. But the confidence for them to now deploy that and put it into that consumer discretionary stuff rather than say, I should hold onto this because things are tough. [00:28:04][9.6]

Bryce: [00:28:04] Hmm. Yeah. Yeah. [00:28:05][0.7]

Bryce: [00:28:05] Anyway, Ryan, we're going to take a very short break to hear from our sponsors. And then when we're back, we're going to take a look at some weird things going on at Bridgewater and the Widowmaker trade. So we'll be back in a second. So just very briefly had a bit of a what the moment when I was I don't know what. That's right. I was doing a social post and I saw that Bridgewater Associates. [00:28:26][20.7]

Alec: [00:28:27] Ray Dalio was biggest hedge fund. Yes. 160 billion assets under management. [00:28:31][4.3]

Bryce: [00:28:32] Yeah, massive Ray Dalio. [00:28:33][1.1]

Bryce: [00:28:34] Ray Dalio is up 26% this year. [00:28:37][3.4]

Bryce: [00:28:37] Not pretty. Not bad. [00:28:39][1.2]

Bryce: [00:28:40] Pretty phenomenal. Pretty phenomenal. Up 26%. I guess that's what the purpose of a hedge fund is, to be able to hedge performance. [00:28:48][7.3]

Bryce: [00:28:48] Hedge risk, hedge. [00:28:49][0.8]

Bryce: [00:28:49] Risk not related to this performance because you actually don't get insight into a lot of the stuff that they're doing behind closed doors. They don't make it publicly available. But I did have a look at some of the 13 ETFs or the filings for public disclosure for what they are buying and selling in some of the bigger portfolios. And it was surprising. I remember a couple maybe a year or so ago, we did the same exercise and some of his largest holdings were the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, some of the biggest indexes in the world. [00:29:25][35.6]

Alec: [00:29:26] Keeping in mind that 13 FS, you only have to report on American holdings. Yes. So there's you know, it's not a complete list of everything that Bridgewater owns. We could do the maths. I don't know if you got it in front of you, but we know they've got about 160 billion assets under management. [00:29:41][15.0]

Bryce: [00:29:42] It's definitely not a reflected in the 13 that. [00:29:43][1.7]

Alec: [00:29:44] Okay. Yeah. Yeah. But in saying that. Yeah. What we do say paints an interesting picture still. [00:29:51][7.0]

Bryce: [00:29:51] Yeah. Well that the dynamic has changed. He still does hold just a couple of the S&P five hundreds and whatnot, but three out of the four top holdings disclosed roughly 10% of the portfolio and now is now emerging market exposure. Which is firstly a bit of a what the. Yeah, but secondly the more surprising thing was that it's done in three indexes Vanguard, Emerging Markets Stock Index, the iShares core, MSCI Emerging Markets and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets eighth, both of which feel like they should just be the same ETFs. I'm not really sure what's going on there, but I guess the what the moment is, is has this guy ever heard of ETF overlap and why why doesn't he just buy the one ETF? [00:30:37][46.3]

Bryce: [00:30:38] Yeah. [00:30:38][0.0]

Bryce: [00:30:39] But pretty surprising that we're not I don't know if it's surprising, but I was interested to say that he's going to Jod on emerging markets. [00:30:46][7.3]

Alec: [00:30:47] Yeah. I wonder what the difference is between the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets and iShares core MSCI Emerging Markets. [00:30:54][7.0]

Bryce: [00:30:54] Yeah, probably just the exposure to. [00:30:57][2.3]

Alec: [00:30:58] Maybe like country. Yeah. Or the concentration of it. [00:31:00][2.5]

Bryce: [00:31:00] But also just like, hey, have a look under the hood. Just buy buy one. [00:31:05][4.3]

Alec: [00:31:05] Oh, well, here's the question. So three emerging market ETFs, the Vanguard one and then two iShares ones. Do they have the same top holding? No, no. You say. [00:31:15][10.1]

Bryce: [00:31:16] No, I say. [00:31:16][0.5]

Alec: [00:31:17] Well, they do. They all have the same doing just what it is. Emerging Market Company. It's one that we've definitely spoken about on the show before. [00:31:26][9.2]

Bryce: [00:31:27] Is it China stock? [00:31:28][0.8]

Alec: [00:31:29] It's not. [00:31:29][0.2]

Bryce: [00:31:30] Is that an emerging market? [00:31:31][0.7]

Alec: [00:31:32] It is for the purposes of these ETFs. [00:31:34][1.9]

Bryce: [00:31:35] It's a south, it's an Indonesian stock. [00:31:37][1.4]

Bryce: [00:31:37] It's not an Asian stock. [00:31:39][2.0]

Bryce: [00:31:41] Not an I tell me. [00:31:42][0.5]

Alec: [00:31:42] I'll give you the country. You'll guess that straight away. [00:31:44][1.8]

Bryce: [00:31:44] Taiwan Semiconductor. [00:31:45][0.8]

Alec: [00:31:46] Yeah, yeah. TSMC number one in all three, about 5% of each portfolio or 6% of one next to the same, but in different orders on know so in the same order and each of them trying to guess them now. Okay so top Taiwan Semiconductor second and all of them Tencent. Yeah third on all of them Alibaba and I'm to and then it moves a little bit then Samsung is up there also Reliance Industries that massive Indian conglomerate May Taiwan the Chinese Ubereats is also up there. They're sort of the top six. [00:32:28][41.8]

Bryce: [00:32:29] Okay. This kind of is starting to make sense because he's very bullish on China. [00:32:32][3.6]

Bryce: [00:32:33] Yeah. [00:32:33][0.0]

Bryce: [00:32:34] Yeah. And I guess so. He's a macro investor for those who are unsure. Macro investors released a lot of commentary over the last couple of years on the changing evolution of geopolitics at the moment and the change of the guard between us and China. And and I now it's sort of starts to make sense why he's going so hard on at least the top 10% of his portfolio, his exposure to those big companies. So that that makes sense. [00:32:57][22.9]

Alec: [00:32:57] The really interesting thing so I'm just flicking through those lists now, really interesting thing and this is a good reminder to always look under the hood. South Korea, the question of does should South Korea be in the emerging markets index? Will Vanguard have obviously answered that to the negative because Samsung just isn't in this holding, but BlackRock or iShares have. Decided that South Korea should be in the emerging market classification because Samsung is in both of the ETFs that we're looking at. So even if something says it's got the same label, emerging markets, it's it always pays to look under the hood. There's some fascinating companies in here. We could go down a deep rabbit hole. So let's not but like talking about volatility in Brazil and um. Yeah anyway so interesting but yeah I agree. ETF. [00:33:44][47.0]

Bryce: [00:33:45] Yeah. [00:33:45][0.0]

Bryce: [00:33:46] Honestly. Right. Come on. I guess the thing or to. [00:33:49][2.9]

Alec: [00:33:49] I guess the thing is you pay more brokerage because you've got to trade multiple positions, but. Right. [00:33:54][5.0]

Bryce: [00:33:54] Pay brokerage. [00:33:55][0.2]

Bryce: [00:33:56] Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. [00:33:57][1.4]

Alec: [00:33:58] Bridgewater will probably keep a few brokerage houses in business for sure. You know, the complexity of managing multiple positions. Bridgewater can probably manage it. [00:34:07][9.3]

Bryce: [00:34:07] Yeah. Yeah. [00:34:08][0.5]

Alec: [00:34:09] All right. Mindful of. [00:34:10][1.2]

Bryce: [00:34:10] Time. [00:34:10][0.0]

Alec: [00:34:11] Let's get on to the Widowmaker trade, a term that is used to talk about Japan. Okay. And I think it's worth talking about Japan because we're talking about inflation, we're talking about interest rates. But there's one country bucking the trend around the world, and that is Japan. So the Widowmaker trade is a trade that has broken a number of big investors over the time. They get enticed by the idea that Japan is going to default on its debt or that Japan and that because of that bond, Japanese bond prices will fall. They look at debt to GDP, they look at the demographics of Japan, they look at the economic growth. They just look at Japan and they say, it's got to happen. It's got to happen. Yeah, bond prices can't stay high. So I'm going to go short bonds, short Japanese bonds. But what has always happened is that even as Japanese debt grows and grows, bond prices don't fall. And that's largely because the Japanese central bank is very active, and we'll get to that in a second. But some of the best investors of our time have lost their shirt on the Japan trade, the Widowmaker trade. David Einhorn, who also lost his shirt shorting Tesla. Yes, in 2009, said Japan's debt burden would lead to a government default short of Japanese bonds was unsuccessful. [00:35:37][85.4]

Bryce: [00:35:37] Yes. [00:35:37][0.0]

Alec: [00:35:39] Kyle Bass, who's another big investor, predicted that the Japanese government bond market would collapse. It was wrong. David Roche Someone I haven't heard of, but he predicted a surge in Japanese yields and if yields are going up, bond prices are going down. Never came to pass. Yeah, because so many investors kept making the same trade and kept losing money on it. It got labelled the Widowmaker trade. [00:36:08][28.8]

Bryce: [00:36:09] All around it. Yeah, it's pretty. [00:36:10][1.4]

Alec: [00:36:11] It's pretty funny. Um, and now with inflation high around the world, a number of investors are getting back into that trade. 2022 is a year for this short Japanese bond trade. So around the world, we spoke about it earlier. Central banks are raising interest rates except the Bank of Japan. They have a view that cost push inflation is temporary, but also that higher interest rates aren't going to really break the back of inflation because its cost push it's food prices, it's energy prices from events around the world rather than demand pull. [00:36:48][37.3]

Bryce: [00:36:48] I have time for the Central Bank of Japan. [00:36:51][2.4]

Bryce: [00:36:51] Yeah, yeah. [00:36:52][0.6]

Alec: [00:36:52] Same. I tend to agree the idea. The counterargument though is that if you raise interest rates, you can still break the back of cost push inflation by demand destruction. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But inflation right now is two and a half percent in Japan and similar to the rest of the world, you know, the 20 tens, they were desperate to get inflation in the system and they just couldn't. But yeah, two and a half percent in Japan, but they're still keeping rates near zero. And the Bank of Japan, however, they control the yield curve on their bonds and they cut their ten year government bond at 0.25%. And so people, investors are piling into this trade thinking that they can't keep that cut, that that's not going to last, and they're going to be forced to raise rates and take that cap off at some point, which will see bond yields increase and bond prices fall as a result. So that's the situation. That's the trade, the Widowmaker trade. The set up is the fascinating. The variable is the Bank of Japan. And this is the fascinating thing, I reckon, because they will do anything and I mean anything to protect their market. [00:37:59][67.0]

Bryce: [00:38:00] Yeah. [00:38:00][0.0]

Alec: [00:38:00] So the Bank of Japan has bought so many Japanese government bonds that they now own 50% of all Japanese government debt. [00:38:08][7.6]

Bryce: [00:38:08] Wow. [00:38:08][0.0]

Alec: [00:38:09] Yeah. Which is a little bit of like left hand. [00:38:11][1.9]

Bryce: [00:38:12] Yeah. [00:38:12][0.0]

Alec: [00:38:12] Like taking from left hand to pay. Right. And I don't know what the analogy is, but like what? What's that like? Could a central bankers Kate printing money and own 100% of government debt like surely not. [00:38:22][10.1]

Bryce: [00:38:23] Yet showing on? Maybe in theory. [00:38:25][1.9]

Alec: [00:38:25] I don't know. Are we going to see that in Japan? Because the other thing is the yen is dumping like no one wants to own yen, because if an American government bond will pay you 2%, why would you own a Japanese government bond that pays you 0.2%? So everyone's getting out of Japan and into these other currencies, other government bonds and stuff like that. So the currency is also collapsing. I don't know. It's strange. [00:38:50][25.0]

Bryce: [00:38:51] Yeah, but I think history shows itself. So how about how far back. David? David Einhorn, 2009. [00:38:57][5.3]

Alec: [00:38:58] Yeah, yeah, we'll put it. [00:39:00][2.4]

Bryce: [00:39:01] Dwight said 13 years ago. This is this the story in the story probably go the. [00:39:04][3.8]

Alec: [00:39:04] Story goes. [00:39:05][0.3]

Bryce: [00:39:05] For his. [00:39:05][0.2]

Alec: [00:39:06] Yeah, yeah, yeah. So they buy government bonds. [00:39:09][2.8]

Bryce: [00:39:09] The Japanese are they'll just stick to it. [00:39:12][3.0]

Alec: [00:39:12] Yeah. Well so there's so 50% of all government bonds are owned by the central bank. Also, between 2010 and 2021, the Japanese government spent about half 1,000,000,000,000 USD buying stockmarket ETFs. [00:39:25][13.1]

Bryce: [00:39:26] Yeah, I remember saying a couple of years ago the stat about how much of the of a stock market. [00:39:31][4.6]

Bryce: [00:39:31] Japanese stock on the. [00:39:32][1.3]

Bryce: [00:39:32] Japanese stock market they have on their on their balance sheet and it was an extraordinary. [00:39:36][3.8]

Bryce: [00:39:37] Amount. Yeah. [00:39:37][0.3]

Bryce: [00:39:38] Just propping up, propping up, propping up. [00:39:40][2.2]

Alec: [00:39:41] Oh no. It's crazy. Is unbelievable. Now, they they apparently pivoted that policy a little bit last year or they're not buying one index, they're buying another index or they're buying less or something like that. But yeah, they're they're still buying a lot of bonds. [00:39:54][13.2]

Bryce: [00:39:55] I mean, they're consistent. Then they're sticking to their message and they're staying true to their strategy. [00:39:59][4.2]

Bryce: [00:40:00] Yeah. Yeah. So it's just like this. [00:40:02][1.7]

Alec: [00:40:02] Is probably not super relevant for us. Like I'm not long or short Japan, but I am fascinated to watch this play out that a trade that hasn't worked for over a decade is the set up, is there again, and investors are moving into it. Yeah, and I think it's just one to watch and one to be aware of. And it will be interesting because if the Bank of Japan are right, that probably says something to other central banks around the world. Yeah. [00:40:25][23.6]

Bryce: [00:40:26] Have a look at yourselves on a sec. [00:40:27][1.4]

Alec: [00:40:28] But I wanted to I. [00:40:30][1.6]

Bryce: [00:40:30] Just the other. [00:40:31][0.4]

Bryce: [00:40:31] Thing as well is just two and a half percent inflation in Japan is pretty incredible. [00:40:35][3.6]

Alec: [00:40:35] Yeah. You mean low? [00:40:36][0.8]

Bryce: [00:40:37] Yeah. Like, yeah. [00:40:37][0.8]

Bryce: [00:40:38] So even though they're experiencing cost push inflation. Yeah. Obviously not as reliant on a lot of external nice. [00:40:45][7.1]

Alec: [00:40:46] I think it might be an indicator of how things are going. You know, even with price rises like consumption probably going down and stuff like that, as the population gets older and there's less people working and stuff like that, maybe, maybe people save a lot more. So rather like the much quick demand destruction might happen a lot quicker in Japan. I actually haven't looked into it. You're right. [00:41:09][23.0]

Bryce: [00:41:09] I wonder what their target rate is then. [00:41:11][1.6]

Alec: [00:41:11] 2%. [00:41:11][0.0]

Bryce: [00:41:12] Oh, it is. Yeah. That's cruising. [00:41:13][1.2]

Alec: [00:41:16] No, but the thing is, there's different ways to get to 2%. And I think the way that they want to get to 2% is from like increased consumption which fuels economic growth, whereas getting to 2% this way is not fuelling economic growth. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But we've got a bit of a gripe with some financial media as we've made clear in this episode. In previous episodes, I Googled the Widowmaker trade is back because that was the IFR article that sparked this segment they published, I think earlier this week. When you listening to this last week, I just just Googling just looking at first page or to have results in 2010 a CNBC article widowmaker traders back 2012 Business Insider same thing. 2013 Investment Week Same Thing. 2015 Sydney Morning Herald Same thing. 2019 Financial Times Same thing. 2020 Bloomberg would make a trade is back and then 2022 AFR. [00:42:11][55.6]

Bryce: [00:42:12] It is almost as if the editors are. [00:42:13][1.4]

Bryce: [00:42:13] Like, Well, it's that time of year. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. [00:42:16][2.3]

Alec: [00:42:16] It obviously gets some good clicks, but it's an interesting it's a fascinating trade. Yeah, but. [00:42:21][5.3]

Bryce: [00:42:22] Will the Bank of Japan have made the right decision in the right call? [00:42:25][3.1]

Alec: [00:42:26] I think well, I think the point is people have called this this shot before. Media expert investors. [00:42:32][6.2]

Bryce: [00:42:33] Yeah. [00:42:33][0.0]

Alec: [00:42:34] And no one's been right. [00:42:34][0.7]

Bryce: [00:42:35] No, but. [00:42:35][0.5]

Bryce: [00:42:35] Maybe this time we do. [00:42:36][1.0]

Alec: [00:42:37] Maybe this time instead. [00:42:37][0.8]

Bryce: [00:42:38] I mean, this is different. [00:42:39][0.6]

Alec: [00:42:39] The broader macro environment feels a bit different. [00:42:42][2.5]

Bryce: [00:42:43] Yeah, but I mean, they've called it a. [00:42:45][1.6]

Bryce: [00:42:45] Lot of times. [00:42:45][0.5]

Bryce: [00:42:47] In a lot of times. Nice one to finish on Ren. A quick reminder that if you haven't jumped in and bought your tickets to Finn Fest, Australia's largest finance festival that we are launching in October here in Sydney, 15th of October, make sure you head to Equity Mates dot com slash fin fest to grab your tickets. They are only $47 half less than half the price of your average summer music festival. But it's going to have the same vibe, the same atmosphere. Plenty of experts being flown in from around the country to help you on your investing journey along with entertainment food. Bitter, bitter, bitter booze. It's going to be a great day. [00:43:28][41.2]

Alec: [00:43:28] Less than half the price of your average summer festival, and I guarantee at least double the amount of investing chop. [00:43:36][7.6]

Bryce: [00:43:37] At least. [00:43:37][0.2]

Bryce: [00:43:37] At least depending on what you and your friends talk. [00:43:40][2.0]

Bryce: [00:43:40] About in festivals. [00:43:40][0.6]

Bryce: [00:43:43] But it's been great to chat. Plenty of stuff going on in markets. We we cover a lot across the Equity Mates media network as well. Make sure you go and check out all of our other shows. We've got the dive, which we've spoken about, which is our daily news show. We are relaunching Get Started investing as well. It's taking a hiatus this week as we come back with a new format. So stay tuned for that if you're listening to get started investing but we've got crypto curious talk money to me you're in good company and savvy comedian v economist all covering everything that's going on in markets at the moment. But Ren always great to chat with. Pick it up next week. [00:44:20][37.4]

Alec: [00:44:20] Sounds good. [00:44:21][0.3]