Don’t Look Up: Just how many satellites are in space right now?

Sascha: [00:00:03] From Equity Mates media. This is The Dive. I'm your host, Sascha Kelly. Last year, a record 180 rockets were successfully launched into orbit, many of them carrying satellites. So this meant at the end of 2022, there were 8261 satellites orbiting the Earth, 3 to 1. And increasingly more satellites are being launched by private companies rather than governments. In 2021, private sector funding in space related companies topped $10 billion, an all time high and a tenfold increase over the past decade. And the percentage of global space R&D funding coming from the US government decreased from about 70% to 50% over the same period. It's Friday, the 17th of February, and today I want to know why are private companies launching so many satellites into space? And what possibilities does this open up for us to talk about this today? It's a bit of a terrifying topic. I'm going to put that on the table. I'm joined by Darcy Cordell, my colleague here at Equity Mates Media. And I'm going to jump in the deep end. Darcy, I'd say you are our resident UFO watcher. You're always updating us on the stories about spy villains or whenever a UFO has been spotted around the world. 

Darcy: [00:01:30] Sascha We do joke that my Twitter is really turning into conspiracy to attach a bit of a light, but this is a fascinating space. Pardon the pun. 

Sascha: [00:01:41] Full of fans today. So many opportunities. But Darcy, I've had my head in the sand, but satellites have become an integral part of our lives. They provide us with communications offices, GPS services, weather monitoring. I was just saying that it's going to be 39 degrees in Melbourne today. All of that information that I wouldn't be able to get unless the satellites were up there. But who actually controls most of the satellites orbiting Earth at the moment? 

Darcy: [00:02:08] They're controlled by a whole range of entities. We've got governments, private companies and then also international organisations. The country that actually launches the satellite, they're then responsible for its control and eventual decommissioning. So of the 4852 active satellites orbiting the Earth as of last year, almost 3000 of them belong to the US and that's by far the largest number of any country with China coming in at second, accounting for only 499. 

Sascha: [00:02:36] Wow. 

Darcy: [00:02:37] But Sascha, there are increasingly more satellites being launched by private companies like Elon Musk's SpaceX X 61 of those 180 rocket launches last year were carried out by SpaceX. That's in comparison with 62 coming from the Chinese government and businesses.

Sascha: [00:02:53] I want to jump in here and just ask if there's 8000 satellites orbiting the Earth, but less than 5000 are currently active. What happens to satellites when they come to the end of their lives? Is that what we mean by space junk? 

Darcy: [00:03:07] Yeah, that's right. So two things can happen to old satellites. For the ones that are closer to earth, the ones in low earth orbit. Engineers usually use their last bit of fuel to slow it down so much that it falls out of orbit and then eventually burns up in the atmosphere. But for the ones further away, they're usually just sent even further away from Earth to get them out of the way, get them out of the traffic. 

Sascha: [00:03:29] What is the actual breakdown of all the different applications? What are the majority of satellites used for? Because I can understand when they're being used for GPS, that's for me to get to the shops and understand where I'm going. But obviously we don't need 8000 satellites just for that. I'm currently doing small trips and there's got to be a whole lot of other things that come underneath communications and observations. 

Darcy: [00:03:54] Yeah, of the active satellites. Last year, over 3000 were for communications, so the vast majority, about 1030 for Earth observation, 385 for technology development, 150 or so for navigation, GPS, as you said, 22 for Earth Science and 18 for other purposes.

Sascha: [00:04:14] Darcey 18 for other purposes sounds super ominous, but let's put a pin in that for now.

Darcy: [00:04:20] Maybe tracking this five balloons over the US. 

Sascha: [00:04:22] Yeah, yeah. As you said, Elon Musk's SpaceX X is a big contributor to the number of satellites being launched. It's growing exponentially. Give me a sense of just how many satellites are being launched in recent times. 

Darcy: [00:04:38] I'll go back to the beginning. Sascha. The first ever satellite was launched by the Russians in 1957, but really since 2019 in particular, space is starting to get really crowded. Since its first launch in 2019, Space X has now launched more than 3000 StarLink satellites into orbit, and they're only just getting started. Last year, the Federal Communications Commission approved their request to send seven and a half thousand more StarLink satellites into low-Earth orbit this year. So by the end of this year, there could be four times as many StarLink satellites orbiting Earth than all other satellites combined. 

Sascha: [00:05:14] And over the next few decades, Elon Musk is hoping to send 42,000 of these satellites to space, 15 times the number of operational satellites in orbit today. DORSEY That's a huge uptick. From just 8000 at the moment. So we'll talk more about the specific uses of StarLink satellites later in this episode. But ease my nerves first, Darcy. That's a lot of satellites with so many of them going up into space. Isn't there a danger of them colliding? And doesn't that just become greater the more that there are up there? Do I have anything to worry about? 

Darcy: [00:05:48] Basically, there is a real threat, but it's a pretty big space up there. Sascha. 

Sascha: [00:05:53] Again, pun intended. 

Darcy: [00:05:54] There are more than four and a half thousand large objects in space weighing 100 kilograms or more that are already up there. And granted the recent rapid increase in their numbers, it does add to concerns about the risk of collisions, which could then create more space debris, and that could potentially trigger a phenomenon known as the Kessler syndrome. 

Sascha: [00:06:13] Okay. Obviously, follow up question is what is the Kessler syndrome? 

Speaker 3: [00:06:16] And that debris can then disable or cause other satellites to crash into each other, creating even more debris. And this problem spirals out of control and in fact, called the Kessler syndrome. And if we reach that, then essentially space is to unsafe to access. 

Darcy: [00:06:29] Eventually it becomes so bad and prevalent that it disrupts a lot of satellites and a lot of space flights. So we might not be moving to Mars.

Sascha: [00:06:37] So essentially dominoes in space, That's what the Kessler syndrome is, right? Okay. That is a little bit terrifying. But there are also exciting things happening with more satellites being launched. So let's take a quick break and then when we get back, I'd love to talk about the future possibilities and the more positive opportunities that these satellites are opening up for us. Welcome back to the Dive. I'm your host, Sascha Kelly. A quick favour to ask you. Equity Mates community survey is still open. I promise I'll stop bugging you about it soon, but it is open for a couple more weeks. It really, really helps us. It helps us direct where our resources go, what type of content we make. Basically, you help direct where Equity Mates is going to go, and if you fill it out, you could win $500 or tickets to invest, which is happening on the 11th of November. So it'll take you less time than it takes for me to finish the rest of this episode. With Darcy. The link is in the show notes. Please do it. It's a small job for you, but it's a massive help for us. Anyway, back into the topic at hand. Satellites, things in space. It seems to be what all the headlines are talking about at the moment, because more and more satellites are being launched into the skies above us. Last year there was a record 180 rockets which carry the satellites up there. And this year there's going to be a whole lot more. The communications satellites in particular are the ones having an impact on our everyday lives and where a lot of these technological advancements are coming from, it's simply just becoming much easier to launch these satellites. Isn't that right?

Darcy: [00:08:24] Darcy Yeah, and that's mainly thanks to the rise of the commercial space industry, the cost of space launches. It has just seen a massive decline over the past few years, and satellites themselves are also getting cheaper, such as still launching a single satellite into space can cost anywhere between 10 million to $400 million, depending on the rocket or vehicle used. 

Sascha: [00:08:45] That is still a huge gap. Like 390 million is your range. Then I'd like something to be more specific than that.

Darcy: [00:08:54] Okay, Well, I'll give you a more specific stat. According to McKinsey, the cost for heavy launches into low-Earth orbit have fallen from $65,000 per kilogram to one and a half thousand dollars per kilogram. That's more than a 95% decrease.

Sascha: [00:09:10] Well, I guess it's no surprise that those costs have decreased as the volume has just increased at such an exponential value. So the affordability must be controlling how many satellites are going up there. I know the growth in the number of satellites over the last decade has been helped by the development of the smaller CubeSat, which allows a large number of small size satellites to launch. At the same time previously and our earlier rockets, they could only launch one or two satellites at a time. 

Darcy: [00:09:41] That's right. This is a big development. SpaceX actually launched a rocket last month that had 51 StarLink satellites on board. And one of the biggest advances in satellite technology is the introduction of small satellites, also known as Nanosatellites. And these are just much smaller than the traditional ones, which makes them cheaper to build and cheaper to launch. But there are some other factors that have contributed to the 95% decrease in costs. We've got advancements in computer aided design and 3D printing which streamline the manufacturing process and improve supply chains. There's this rise of the commercial launch providers that prioritise efficiency. So Space X, Oneweb, Amazon all bringing down costs. And then the engineers at these companies have developed reusable components for launch vehicles, which lowers the costs and promotes sustainability. They don't need to remake all the equipment to launch another rocket. 

Sascha: [00:10:35] SpaceX used to be the domain of just governments, and their military is essentially. But now private companies are in on this action just as much. An example of the use case of these satellites is starlink's importance in the Ukraine. When war broke out, it helped provide the Internet to so many Ukrainians who are without it. And that's what I understand is called a space to earth application. Nearly half of the world's population does not have access to the Internet because most Internet options require an extensive track of costly underground cables, leaving many rural locations offline. 

Darcy: [00:11:11] They satellites launched by mostly private companies. They work in low earth orbit and they can help with a few specific things. So they satellites can provide Internet connection to remote or isolated areas. StarLink has already made its Internet available on private jets and some cruise ships, although that's probably not a very common man application. The more common application will be on remote farms and land, which isn't really connected to the grid. 

Sascha: [00:11:36] I really think that people want to live in nature. They want to be out in the mountains, they want to be where they play. I don't want to detract from the great work that they're doing, and I know I just gave some context then, but it's you've got to have a comment about priorities when they when they're sending it to private jets and cruise ships. Right. 

Audio Clip: [00:11:55] People across the planet, they're travelling from miles and miles away just so they can access Internet. So then you pull back and you say, how do we get these for? Disconnected. And the right technology to do that is satellite. 

Darcy: [00:12:05] We've also got farmers who can use satellite images to identify areas of their land that require replanting early in the season rather than spending hours and days. Conducting manual inspections might mean they just miss some areas of the field energy companies. They can use satellite data to monitor vegetation that might be interfering with their infrastructure, including power lines. So by addressing the problems before they escalate, we can avoid power outages. Insurance companies, their big one that can use satellites to assess the risks and damages at remote locations and better imaging from satellites eliminates the need for them to go to sites in person. Basically, satellites are ideal for all these applications because they can cover large areas and they're not affected by physical barriers like mountains or oceans.

Sascha: [00:12:52] I need to do a video call. Perhaps your mid-ocean or midair. Wherever you are, you'll have a signal before it sounds like we've got the promised land. It still is really expensive to be a StarLink customer. You need to spend $600 for the terminal and then a further $110 every month, which is way more expensive than the broadband services I can access here in the middle of inner city Melbourne. 

Darcy: [00:13:20] There's no denying that. Sacha But it's not just space and StarLink, there's Oneweb, there's Amazon Virgin orbit. Even the European Union is sending up communications satellites, which is great for competition and bringing prices down. 

Sascha: [00:13:33] Project Kuiper is setting out to extend high quality broadband internet access by implementing a constellation of said license low-Earth orbit, because competition means that those prices will start to, you know, be competitive. 

Darcy: [00:13:48] Yeah, exactly. So London based company ONEWEB, they're launching a 648 satellite, low Earth orbit constellation, and their goal is to provide global broadband Internet services by the end of this year. But we're not quite sure how much it'll cost yet. Amazon plans to launch satellites this year for its project Kuiper Satellite, Internet Constellation. And once that launches, it's designed to bolster Verizon's 4G, LTE and 5G mobile networks. And the European Union has said its proposed satellite network, Iris, could include up to 170 satellites, which is scheduled to enter orbit between 2025 and 2027. 

Sascha: [00:14:28] It sounds like it's a really exciting space odyssey, pardon the pun. 

Darcy: [00:14:32] Of course it is, Sascha. And there's no doubt, as you said, it's all a little bit scary having thousands and thousands of satellites going out. Of course, there's some risk, but I'm going to be back in scientists and engineers to create more positives, the negatives, and hopefully work out a steering system to keep them away from each other.

Sascha: [00:14:50] I know. I just I know that it's space and so it's literal name is describing, you know, what it is. I still can't feel like it's going to get too crowded at some point. But, you know, I'm not a scientist and that's probably why I'm family here on Earth behind a microphone instead of making decisions about satellites. 

Darcy: [00:15:10] Well, Sascha, I think we can be enthusiastic because the financial industry agrees they are so optimistic about space. Some believe it will become a $1 trillion industry in the coming years. So a lot to look forward to. 

Sascha: [00:15:23] Well, one thing's for certain, there's going to be many, many developments. And especially if Elon's involved in space X, I imagine we'll be talking about this again as the year progresses. Let's leave it there for today, Darcy. But a final reminder, FinFest is back for 2023. It's on November 11th, so make sure you get that date in your diaries. It is in Sydney. It is a fantastic day. I went last year. Absolutely loved it. If you want to be the first to know about FinFest, then make sure you register your interest and then you'll be the first who's kept up to date and get access to Earlybird ticket prices, find out about schedules, get all those kind of interesting things before anyone else does the links in the show notes. But also if you forget equitymates.com simplest place to go, only information is on our website. If you want to keep the conversation going with us here at the dive, remember you can contact us by email where thedive@equitymates.com or hit follow and subscribe wherever you're listening right now and then you'll just never miss an episode again. Darcy Thanks for informing me all about satellites today. I'm sure you'll keep me up to date because as we know, your Twitter feed is right on the money with all that UFO content. 

Darcy: [00:16:34] My pleasure, Sascha. I look forward to it. 

Sascha: [00:16:36] Until next time.