Could the UK Petrol Crisis Happen Here?

HOSTS Adam & Thomas|29 September, 2021

Meet your hosts

  • Adam

    Adam is the funniest and most successful comedian in his family. He broke onto the comedy scene as a RAW comedy national finalist before selling out solo shows at two Adelaide Fringe festivals. He’s performed stand-up to crowds all over Australia as well as enjoying stints on radio with SAFM and most recently as a host of the Ice Bath on Triple M. Father of two and owner of pets, he may finally be an adult… almost.
  • Thomas

    Thomas, the economist, is the brains of the outfit. He studied economics and game-theory at the University of Queensland and cut his teeth as an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He now runs his own economics consultancy, with a particular focus on the property market. He lives with his wife and two kids in the hills outside Byron Bay.

Half the bowsers in the UK were empty on the weekend, what’s the trend to worry about here? New data shows that household incomes have actually gone up in lockdown, which is weird. The CEO of CBA wants to head APRA off at the pass, and is there money to be made copy-trading politicians in the US? All this and more on this week’s Comedian v Economist.

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Adam: [00:00:25] Hello and welcome to comedian versus economist, we demystify the world of money and help you get a handle on the bigger picture. My name's Adam and we're joined, as always by my little older brother and real life economist, Thomas.

Thomas: [00:00:38] Yeah, get out. How? I am doing pretty well, thank you. 

Adam: [00:00:41] Big welcome to you out there if you're tuning in for the first time or indeed, welcome back. If you're a regular listener of our our little podcast that we like to do, thank you very much for joining us, Thomas. Big, big show coming out this week. Big, big show to big Great Britain is in the midst of a petrol crisis and not the good kind. We'll find out what's going on there. What if your if your wallet or your purse feels a little heavy right now? Don't worry. You're not alone because apparently Aussies are flush with cash. We'll find out why a bit later. And Daddy Mac P ain't raising the roof. He's raising the floor. Writes or sorry, I was I was trying to get people hyped about talking about macro prudential regulation. So we're going to be. So it is important. It is important. I'm hot. I'm pumped. We're going to find out why the CBA chief thinks that we need action. And if you could copy the trades of any investor in the world, who would it be? Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, that guy from Tik-tok. What about politicians? We'll look at how it might work out if you could indeed copy the trades of politicians. But, Thomas, before we get started, I thought we better just check in with our favourite Chinese property developer, Evergreen. We spoke about it last week, and you said the whole world was going to cave in on itself. I couldn't help but notice we're still here. What happened? 

Thomas: [00:02:09] Nobody knows the short answer to that question. So just to quickly recap, Evergreen had some interest payments due on Wednesday or Thursday at time, and that didn't make them. Or maybe they did so thought they thought they were going to go. They were going to default. And that's going to spark a whole bit of financial contagion is a potential threat. So that day came and went. There were some reports that they had made their payment and everything was OK. There were also reports that they had missed their payment. So we're not sure about that. It's not totally clear. And then there were reports that the Chinese government was going to come in and bail them out. And then there were other reports is that the Chinese government was actually not going to come in and bail them out. And then markets responded positively, 

Adam: [00:02:57] either because they did, either because

Thomas: [00:03:02] they had made their payments and everything looked OK or they were so broke now that the government had to step in and bail them out. Right. So one of those narratives might be true either way. Markets were solid. They got the jitters midweek and then sort of by Friday and today they're back on track, it seems. But it still is still who knows? Like I said before, once they miss that interest payment, they're in default for 30 days before they're like insolvent, I think, or whatever the technical definition is. Right. So there's still that there's still a window where this stuff can sort of it's still got to figure itself out. 

Adam: [00:03:39] Then I'll be off talking to it like a loan shark, just like it is conceptually discussing terms of like 40 percent interest with a guy who works out of a shed down by the docks. Right. Oh, well, we'll keep an eye on it, that's for sure. I mean, it did I mean, people were saying it had the potential to be massive.

Thomas: [00:04:00] So, yeah, everyone everyone's eyes are still on it. But it's not it's not clear how it's playing out as yet. 

Adam: [00:04:06] And unusual not to get that real crystal clarity out of state sponsored and Chinese corporations, isn't it? They're known

Thomas: [00:04:13] for their transparency and integrity 

Adam: [00:04:17] of data, one of these things. So this is really this is really something is really odd here. All right. Well, why don't we move on to an actual crisis that's unfolding and that is in Great Britain, people are queued up for miles and miles around to get petrol. What's going on there? 

Thomas: [00:04:37] We are almost half of all the petrol stations ran dry on the weekend in the UK. Yeah, massive. Huge. Yes. So there's queues it turned into. Seemed like a bit of a petrol run. And then the UK media is saying that Boris Johnson's looking into getting the soldiers involved, getting the army to deliver the petrol. The business secretary Quassey quoting here. And now that city suspended oil industry competition laws to enable the petrol companies to talk to each other. So normally they're not allowed to talk about what's going on and they collude on the price. But he's saying that you're allowed to talk to each other now because it's going on a bit wobbly, 

Adam: [00:05:13] not just a not just a misprint on a shopper docket or something like that where they're like like 90 cents a litre off you. What people are like when when there's like eight cents a litre off. It was like there you read here. People clamouring over themselves to get 10 cents a litre of their petrol was there for the other shopper docket anymore where there was like a woollies card or something. But yeah, so they had they had the

Thomas: [00:05:40] petrol association in the UK came out and said it was just panic buying like it was there was some seeds of truth that there was a bit of a shortage of truckers. And so they weren't able to distribute the fuel as smoothly as they normally would. That led into some panic buying and a bit of a run on the petrol stations and that sort 

Adam: [00:05:58] of allowed toilet paper. March twenty twenty. 

Thomas: [00:06:01] Yes, yes. The great toilet paper rush of 2020. That's right. So apparently it all comes down to the truckers. So there's 100000 vacancies for the trucking industry right now. And there's a shortage of truckies because the Covid pandemic meant that 40000 driving tests were meant to happen and never happened. So there's that sort of block the flow of new drivers coming in. Right. 20000 European drivers left Britain because of Brexit and other business. Hmm. And then in the past 18 months, 50000 have retired or just quit. Wow. Yes. A huge shortage of truckies. 

Adam: [00:06:36] That's that's massive. Yeah, massive. So they so they can't survive. These big petrol tankers can't get around the country and distribute the fuel. 

Thomas: [00:06:43] So but that's not that must not be just a few story like like everything's not you know, truckies are in everything. So I think that's where it gets interesting because you're now looking at sort of it's not just an isolated supply shock kind of thing, like if there's a genuine shortage of truckies and that's going to get into the price of everything because, you know, so much is distributed by road, the price of all goods are going to go up and that's going to give us inflation. So, I mean, we know we're getting the UK's is getting inflation anyway. And so the question is whether it's temporary or permanent. But once you get like a broad based supply shock, like an increase in petrol prices alone because it's bessen so much, but then, you know, truckie wages, that gets into everything as well. And you're looking at a pretty broad based increase in prices and probably the one thing we're sort of looking at. So the big question in markets right now, so we're seeing inflation pick up across the developed world. The big question is whether it's temporary or permanent. The Fed in the US is still holding the line that it's temporary inflation and then it's not going to become permanent inflation. But one of the one of the key mechanisms for a temporary shock becoming a permanent shock is that it gets her into a wage price spiral. So people see prices go up. And they said, well, I need higher wages because prices, everything's going up. And so their wages go up. Then that pushes the cost of inputs into all, you know, goods go up. So that creates more inflation, which then creates more wage pressures, which creates more inflation. You go round and round, you get that kind of wage price spiral, and then you then you get a permanent increase in inflation. And that's when the central bank step in and have to hike rates in order to bring prices back down.

Adam: [00:08:18] I imagine with 100000 job vacancies in the in the trucking industry, they're obviously going to be, you know, the wages of truckers you could you could argue is going to go up. Right, because we'd have to think so. Going to say, well, well, you know, you can't hire anyone else. I wouldn't want a pay rise. You don't? 

Thomas: [00:08:35] Yeah, you'd have to think so. You'd have to think so. And then that, 

Adam: [00:08:37] as you say, that then pushes the price of getting all the goods everywhere. So then the trucking companies have to wear that. And then that's like at the heart of the economy, isn't it. Yeah. 

Thomas: [00:08:46] Yeah, yeah. Exactly, exactly. Exactly. And not only that, you've got an energy crisis in the UK as well. So not just the petrol prices, but gas prices have gone up sixfold in the past few months. Right. And as nuclear power plants are running suboptimally and electricity supply cable from France is out of order, 

Adam: [00:09:04] is France still having a tantrum? And I think they are yet to do Macron just cut the cable. It's like, oh, forests suck my subs. Yeah, yeah, I think so. Yeah. Maybe the submarine went through. Remember, as you work it out,

Thomas: [00:09:25] we'll be it's an interesting case because we'll see with the UK is a bit of a bellwether for the rest of the developed world. We had Norway raised interest rates this week, so they're the first major economy to do that, deciding to normalise rates from the record lows we saw post Covid. So UK might not be far behind them. I have to have to see.

Adam: [00:09:43] All right. Very good. Well, CBA this week, they had to put some data out there now that said that Aussies are saving more now during Covid than they ever have, or at least in a long time. Yeah. Yeah. 

Thomas: [00:09:56] So one of the things has come out of Covid is CBA started releasing this data from their internal accounts so they start they can track money coming into the savings accounts of their customers and money going out. And they're using that to report on some of these aggregate trends. But it's really timely data. This it's up to the minute, which is something that the ABS struggles to do because I've got the survey legs and all of that sort of business. So it's quite interesting data. Does it do to clock? Yeah, but they're saying that. Wages have fallen, as you'd expect, with lock down 50 percent of the economy is in lock down with New South Wales and Victoria. Their data shows that wages in New South Wales are down eight per cent Victoria and wages down five per cent. But they expect that to get get get close to that eight per cent in New South Wales. A big falls in wages in those two states. Yet that's been more than offset by government support payments. And government support payments are booming. And and as a result, total income, which is wages plus government support payments, total income is actually up in New South Wales and Victoria and across the country. Right. 

Adam: [00:10:59] So people are getting paid less, but they're they're bringing in more money.

Thomas: [00:11:03] Yeah. Yeah. Less wages work, but they're up overall. It seems to be what it's saying. Yeah. At least in the aggregate. 

Adam: [00:11:11] That's true because I'm sure there'll be people listening now going I'm not definitely not getting more money right now, you know, like. Oh yeah. People doing it tough so. Right. That's interesting. 

Thomas: [00:11:22] Yeah. Yeah. And and the other thing that because they've also got they're tracking spending as well. And so basically income has gone, has stayed on trend. So income has been trending up over the past 10, 20 years. And we haven't seen that break in that trend because government support payments have offset the fall in wages so that trends hold. But spending since covid is pretty much flatlined and hasn't hasn't increased. And because the economy's locked down, so it's hard to get out and spend stuff like, I know, I know for myself, like we're still in lockdown here. You know, there's the Coffey's that I would normally get lunches, all that sort of stuff, which is just not we're not spending it. So our spending is way down.

Adam: [00:12:02] We're not where you haven't discovered online shopping like she's we've got boxes arriving. The truckies, we go on strike here. I will be directly affected. 

Thomas: [00:12:15] Yeah. But in aggregate, that's that's true. And so savings is up. And so savings is saying that CBSA now accumulated savings to reach 230 billion. That's an average of eleven thousand two hundred dollars per person over the age of 16. Right. And they're calling it an almighty war chest of savings. 

Adam: [00:12:35] Feel happy to be a part of it. So what's going to happen with all this money that we've got? Oh, this

Thomas: [00:12:40] is the 230 billion dollar question. Yeah. I mean, a lot of people think it's going to go back into the economy, get some sort of rebound in retail spending because they've got all this money that the households are sitting on might go into financial assets quite, you know, becomes a deposit on a house or goes into the share market crypto, you know. So, yeah, I don't know. It's a it's a really interesting question. Or they might just households might just go out. We're just going to happy hanging onto the savings because it's such an uncertain economy and environment right now. 

Adam: [00:13:13] Yeah, but I mean but the the interest rates are very low. So that was always my understanding was cash at the moment was a bad thing to have. Not bad. You know, it's never bad if anyone almost to give me more cash I will gladly accept. But in a low interest environment, cash is not really working for you. So the thinking was you should try and invest it in something. Obviously, you take that risk if you do. But but at least then it's kind of it's not just sitting around, it's working for you. 

Thomas: [00:13:40] So, yeah, maybe. I mean, I expect so. But I guess you like if you're going to go into the share market, you need to be pretty confident if you think that's your emergency fund, like, you know, if that's what's going on in households or just need two hundred and thirty billion as an emergency fund just in case the economy actually does collapse. If that's the reason you're holding it, you're not going to stick your emergency fund in the share market because your emergency probably involves the share market collapse.

Adam: [00:14:05] I'm guessing best keep it safely in crypto. Yeah, this is all that bitcoin, right? I mean, I reckon, like, surely a lot of people travel is going to be the big winner for me.

Thomas: [00:14:19] We're seeing we're seeing that in the US, like when the US started opening up, travel was travel came back very quickly. 

Adam: [00:14:24] Yeah, I'd have to pay Ren locked up, you know, like for ages. And if you've got if you've been locked up for ages and then you come out of lock up with tons of cash, then you're going to spend it on getting out of the you know, if you've been locked in a box, getting out of the box as far away as you're probably the best analogy. We like fly in, fly out workers, you know, like they're stuck in the mines for weeks at a time, racking up cash and they get let loose. And it's just it's off limits. FIFO workers and just what they get out, it's on like those. So just I wouldn't say investing, but certainly spend. Yeah, that's for sure. 

Thomas: [00:15:02] Good chance of that, I reckon. Hmm.

Adam: [00:15:04] All right. Very good. Why don't we take a quick break here. We'll get a word from this week sponsor and be back with more comedian versus economist after this. So. Welcome back here on comedian versus economists, don't forget, you can send us an email, we'd love to hear from your CV at Equity Mates dot com or head over to the website, Equity Mates, dot com forward slash c.v. And of course, you can find us on Facebook and Instagram at KVI podcast. Thomas Macro Prudential. Two words that I'm sure stir the loins of every listener out there. What is it? Why do we care?

Thomas: [00:15:43] Yes, it's a macro prudential is trying to control the the banking system with sort of the big macro level regulation rather than not rather than interest rates. And yes, at this in 2016, APRA came out and said I well, looking a little risky. We're not happy with how much money is going to property investors. We're not happy with how much is going to people with interest only loans. We think those sectors are growing too quickly and that's creating a stability risk. And so we're going to introduce a bunch of restrictions on the banks, the metrics that they have to hit to try and cool those markets. Right. And those measures knocked about 10 percent of house prices at the time in 2013, 2016 and 18. And so there's talk, this talk that it sort of could be on the cards. Again, house prices are obviously like on a tear away. Yes. So there's rumours that there might be might might be on the cards. But then McCommon, the head of CBA, he went he was at the House of Representatives Economics Committee on the hearing on the big four. That's a committee I know you follow very closely. 

Adam: [00:16:48] Oh, I love it. Well, tune in every week.

Thomas: [00:16:53] Yeah. He came out and sort of surprised. People are saying he thinks that we should the banks should take modest steps sooner rather than later to take some heat out of the housing market, saying if we look at the simple numbers and the relative growth rates of housing over the last 12 months, I'm not concerned about the period just gone. But in terms of increasing housing debt and increasing house prices, we are increasingly concerned. 

Adam: [00:17:15] So is he talking to the other banks then when he's saying that, or is he suggesting the RBA needs to do well? 

Thomas: [00:17:21] Yeah, no, he's saying he's saying that to the other banks. So he's saying that he has upped his the Sheba's floor rate. You mentioned in the intro the benchmark floor rate to five point twenty five per cent, none of that up from five point one per cent. So if you go for a mortgage and they and they assess your serviceability, you know, can you afford to pay this loan back? Can you afford to meet the interest payments? They don't use the interest payments you're going to get. They use five point twenty five per cent because I think low interest rates could increase to that over the next few years. And you still need to be able to afford that. So but between five point twenty five per cent and the current interest rate, which is somewhere in the twos, you've got a buffer which protects borrowers.

Adam: [00:17:59] It protects everyone, presumably borrowers and the banks, you know. Yeah.

Thomas: [00:18:03] Yeah, that's right. That's right.

Adam: [00:18:04] I don't want people defaulting on their loans. Presumably it's not good for them. 

Thomas: [00:18:07] Yeah, that's right. That's right. So he's saying he's saying CBA have increased their floor. Right. He's saying the other banks should do that too. But the reason he's saying that is, is that they prefer an increase in the floor rate to some of the other measures that came in with that, like with macro prudential. So like one of them was loan to valuation ratios. So putting limits on the banks of how many loans they could dish out at certain areas. So like loans with lower deposits. So making sure borrowers effectively making sure borrowers had higher deposits. Right. So you have a few and different measures like that. And I think he's saying, like, it's much easier for us to still do our business and do our thing with a higher floor rate than it is to have restrictions on the other stuff. So he's trying to get ahead of the curve there. 

Adam: [00:18:51] Is that what New Zealand did? Did they did they increase the area? 

Thomas: [00:18:55] Yeah. Yep, yep. They had a few a few limits like that. Yeah. They went down the macro Prudential Road a few few months ago. 

Adam: [00:19:01] Is it too early to learn any lessons from New Zealand? 

Thomas: [00:19:06] It didn't seem to work. Funnily enough, it didn't like it sort of it did seem to stabilise house prices but didn't take to it, maybe took some of the heat out, but not as much as I think most people were expecting. So that was kind of interesting. And maybe because because interest rates are so low. And I think like us, you're like Aussies are probably sitting on a fair bit of cash that those things all just kept house prices going higher. The other interesting thing out there out this week, which we saw was UBS investment bank UBS have an evidence lab and they go they regularly go and survey. Nine hundred Australians who took out a mortgage in the last year to see what they did and what they found, like they actually asked people. Was your mortgage application factually accurate, yes or no? Want to have a guess at how many were not factually accurate? 

Adam: [00:19:55] Well, there's a lot there's a lot to unpack here, because if they answered no, often the survey. Oh, yes. Well, how would you like if they're lying, if they lied on their application, what's to say that I lying on the survey? Well, I think we can trust anything that comes out of a survey of. I'm going to say it was quite high to say that the people, for some reason, the people that lied on their application for some reason had this epiphany and decided they were going to answer honestly on the survey from UBS. I don't know what, like 50 percent, 41 percent. 

Thomas: [00:20:31] Wow. It's very high. Very high. I mean, even even if that affects in place, they still signal in the direction of the change as long as the survey hasn't changed. So it's up from 27 percent in 2015.

Adam: [00:20:42] So what are they saying? People people like they gave false information about your financial position or what?

Thomas: [00:20:49] Yeah. So the overstatement of income. So 30 percent of people overstated their income by 25 to 34 percent in that bracket. It's 30 percent. 

Adam: [00:20:59] This reminds me of the time that we met with a mortgage broker. Yeah. And my wife and I was was wearing a puffer jacket in the spring because because we didn't want the mortgage broker to know that she was pregnant because we wanted to include her income in all calculations. And we don't want anyone to have any reason to think that we wouldn't both be fully employed. So it was about six months later that she stopped working for about four years. All right. So so if UBS have asked you, would you or what would you have said? Oh, I think well, it was a point in time thing. So at the time they said and this is the thing they always want. I want to check your employment history. And they get a statement from your you can get a statement from your employer saying that up until now I do work at this place and I'm employed and I have this salary. But as we know, it was past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. So, yeah, no, we didn't we didn't lie. We just we just didn't mention that. And I was pregnant at the time and that was about to take a fairly significant amount of time off to pursue a Hip-Hop career. 

Thomas: [00:22:25] So if I mean, if that's true and I don't know how closely Apple is watching this data, but that seems to be, you know, fairly material decline in lending standards that might be enough to worry APRA, that might be enough to sort of get them thinking they need to introduce a macro prudential. So I think Matt Coleman's ahead of the curve here. He's trying to stay ahead of the curve and saying, oh, look, look, it's all right. Don't don't pull the trigger on macro prudential. We've got we're increasing our rates. We're trying to keep a steady hand on at all. And that's what I think is going on. 

Adam: [00:22:54] I guess that way he and the banks, they they can they can stay in charge of it, so to speak. You know, they say they're controlling. Yeah. Yeah. What happens? Whereas if if the RBA take it on or APRA, then that's out of their hands, then it's like, well you just get what you give in sort of thing. 

Thomas: [00:23:11] Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Exactly.

Adam: [00:23:13] All right. Look, a lot of people would be familiar with the concept of kopi trading. So some platforms in Australia offer the ability to take an investor, someone who presumably you think is doing better than you are or you think we will do better than you will and then just kind of copy their trades. But in America, there's a new platform that allows you to copy politicians trades, is that right? 

Thomas: [00:23:36] Yeah, yeah. That's what we learnt this week. Or, you know, there's a few things actually it's CEO watch list or like. Yeah, Iris's company this guy's founded. So basically what happened is there's this law in the US called the STOCK Act that requires lawmakers to disclose stock trades that they've made or their spouses made within 45 days. Right. So this guy set up a company called Eiris that tracks that and then sends you a note of push notification. Every time there's one of those lawmakers that you follow has disclosed a stock trade and then you can decide if you want to follow them into that trade or not. Yeah, and apparently is a bit of a there's a burgeoning community of people following it. They're following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, right? Yes. And she's a treasure trove. She says it's shares of Nancy Pelosi, the stock market's biggest whale. I think I think they meant that as a compliment.

Adam: [00:24:35] What's the implication here that she's got the inside scoop? 

Thomas: [00:24:38] That's that's what they're saying. Yeah, that's what they're saying, is it's the smart money that that that. Yeah. That the politicians have the inside running on some information that's that's potentially useful. And and they're using that information to kind of a form of insider trading. So it's quite a cynical kind of philosophy. I mean, it's interesting. There were some studies in 2013 and 14 that followed the trades of lawmakers in the US and found that I didn't they didn't outperform the market.

Adam: [00:25:07] Right.

Thomas: [00:25:07] So on average, it doesn't seem to do that. But then there was a case, NPR reported a case last year. The Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, Richard Burr, he this is in February. So this is before covid really broke. He privately warned a small group of his constituents that the pandemic was coming. This is the 

Adam: [00:25:29] chairman group of his mates, private, small group of his constituents. Yeah, sure. 

Thomas: [00:25:38] So he told them the pen name was coming and then went and sold one hundred one point two million dollars of his own personal stocks on a single day in February. Wow. Yes. So this is the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman. Right. So he's obviously got a sense of what's coming. And it's like this is about to hit the fan and he's bailed on it. So I'm guessing as a as a as a long run strategy, it's probably you're not going to outperform the market. Just buy a copy trading Nancy Pelosi. But there might be a signal in in in particular circumstances like a pandemic or something like that. We're following the Intelligence Committee chairman's trades could be very useful, though, 45 days would have put you well into the crash. So probably too late. 

Adam: [00:26:23] Mm hmm. But and then one point seven million dollars to sell or you need to be already invested. But no, I could say that Nancy Pelosi should be all over. She seems to pop up. I don't really understand what she actually does. And I don't pay enough attention to the US probably either. But she seems to pop up all the time, like regardless of what story and what side of politics there's a story about. Yeah, Nancy Pelosi is always there. She's always 

Thomas: [00:26:55] yeah. I mean, she's the House speaker. So I think she's the head of the Democrats effectively. And, you know, apart from the president, she's the top Democrat. Right. Okay. So that's why you hear a lot from her. 

Adam: [00:27:06] And she's a she's a bit of a traitor. 

Thomas: [00:27:08] Well, no, she's not. So it's her partner is her partners like a I don't know what he does, but but it's his trades that they're watching. She's she doesn't trade in anything at all. 

Adam: [00:27:20] There's a red flag already. Nancy is not trading herself. It's just her partner is is trading. That's just like not following the anticolonial is. But because he can't just follow his corrupt Indian bookie and say sounds pretty dodgy. 

Thomas: [00:27:40] Yeah. So I don't know, maybe you want to follow that. The other thing with Kopi trading and did a little bit like it's sort of a new phenomenon. There's not a lot of data on it, but the Harvard Business Review did a study and what they found is sort of like you can either be like a total solo trader or you can run with the herd over the course with social trading and just do whatever the herd is doing. But the best performing strategy they found was a mix of both. So running running your own show, but then also learning from the signals in the social social hive mind effectively.

Adam: [00:28:13] Yeah, that's ridiculous. I get what you're saying 

Thomas: [00:28:17] and take it up with take it up with the Harvard Business Review

Adam: [00:28:19] as well. That also just happened today that I read a reference to a study that was you did 

Thomas: [00:28:25] your own research, did you? 

Adam: [00:28:26] Yeah, well, was very well read. I read an article today that referenced the study, the talked about someone who threw darts at the board that contained stocks and they outperformed the market. And where I read that reference was an article that talked about a hamster that was that was picking stocks and up to 11 percent. So I just don't want to leave people astray here. Like, I think, yeah, you can say once you start saying, well, you can go your own way or you can go with the herd or you can do like a hybrid approach, it all just sounds a lot like you're just having a village way and taking a punt and having a guess at what might what might do well, without really any understanding and you might do well. You might do well. 

Thomas: [00:29:16] What you really need to do is listen to a macro podcast.

Adam: [00:29:20] I think that

Thomas: [00:29:22] the share market and trading, that's 

Adam: [00:29:25] everything that's going to 

Thomas: [00:29:26] that's going to put you ahead of the herd. 

Adam: [00:29:29] Yeah, absolutely. All right. Thank you very much for tuning in. I hope you've enjoyed the show. Don't forget, you can leave us a review on iTunes. We'd really love it if you did that. That helps us out. And of course, there's lots of other great podcast from Equity Mates media to get your ears around Equity Mates investing podcast, Get Started Investing feed. You're in good company. Talk money to me. Lots going on, Thomas. That does us for this week. Thank you for your company. Thank you. And we'll talk to you again next week. See you then. 

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