Rice production in 2023 will record its largest shortfall in two decades. It feels like we are seeing more and more of these stories these days. Recently we’ve had iceberg lettuce in Australia, cooking oil in the UK, baby formula in the US. All three of these shortages had different causes (weather, war and product safety respectively) but the outcome has been that wherever you are reading this, you’ve likely seen some empty supermarket shelves over the past few years.
Estimates are that the world will be short 8.7 million tonnes of rice in 2023. This shortage has been driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine and challenging weather in China and Pakistan. China, the world’s largest rice producer, has seen heavy rains and floods. Similarly Pakistan, which accounts for 7.6% of the world’s rice, has seen annual production fall by almost one-third due to severe flooding.
Experts expect the major rice importers in Southeast Asia to be most affected by this shortage: Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. They also expect countries that are already feeling food shortages and food price inflation to feel this rice shortage most acutely, chiefly Pakistan, Turkey, and Syria.
But wherever you are in the world, don’t be surprised if one of your food staples gets a bit more expensive.
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