We’re back (& one of us is engaged)! Bold Predictions for 2022

Bryce: [00:00:15] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast that follows our journey of investing, whether you're an absolute beginner or approaching Warren Buffett status. Our aim is to help break down your barriers from beginning to dividends. My name is Bryce and for the first time in 2022, as always, I am joined by my equity buddy Ren. How are you?

Alec: [00:00:34] I'm very good Bryce. We are back and kudos to you in our very first Get Started Investing feed episode back. You thought the year was 2020, so getting better every show? 

Bryce: [00:00:46] That's the of holiday I had. I really took it easy. Had some time to relax, refresh and forget what year we are in. 

Alec: [00:00:55] Yeah, yeah. Well, we'll talk about your holiday in a second. But today, as we always start the year back from our summer series, back from our break, we're making some bold predictions for the year ahead. We've been hunkered down with the Equity Mates data analysts and scientists over the summer, and we've come up with some bold predictions that we think will set the scene for the year ahead. But before then, you've done something over summer that really set the scene for the year ahead. Yeah. 

Bryce: [00:01:26] Held a party and we all got Covid. 

Alec: [00:01:29] Ruined Christmas Bryce and I do everything together, so we thought we'd get Covid together as well. 

Bryce: [00:01:35] Got Covid spent Christmas in isolation away from family and friends, so that wasn't a great start to Christmas. But we got it out of the way early and we're able to enjoy the rest of our holidays. 

Alec: [00:01:47] We got it just on the cusp of what it was. Still, there was still a bit of stigma around getting Covid. Yeah, and our friends didn't want to hang out and then they did. Like the week or two later. Everyone, you got it. 

Bryce: [00:02:00] Yeah, yeah, we led the way, but that's right around. The reason we got Covid was because we were celebrating my engagement. 

Alec: [00:02:06] Yeah, he's off the market. 

Bryce: [00:02:10] Off the market. Got engaged in late December to obviously my partner now fiancee Harriet. Really exciting time. Massive year 2022. Unfortunately, a lot of my cash is not going to be able to be put into the markets again. It's going to be sucked into paying for a wedding. 

Alec: [00:02:25] You're going to do it in the metaverse, right? Though Metaverse wedding, that's not bad. So, yeah,

Bryce: [00:02:32] so if if you're a florist, if you're a photographer, if you're a bad 

Alec: [00:02:36] guy, 

Bryce: [00:02:38] I want to know from you, I want to know all about it.

Alec: [00:02:41] If you got at times or you know anything, any advice for Bryce on his wedding day, his personal Instagram is dams are open. 

Bryce: [00:02:49] Yeah, dms are open. Happy to throw out a sponsorship here and there. You can come to the wedding if you want. 

Alec: [00:02:53] Wow, big call. But yeah, very exciting. And I thought it was very funny that as soon as we got out of our COVID lockdown and Bryce made it down the coast to the beach, I see on his Instagram Stories that he's cracked the spreadsheets out and he's already planning the wedding. You know you love a spreadsheet, lot of spreadsheets. You were like a pig in mud.

Bryce: [00:03:17] Yeah, it's tabs everywhere. 

Alec: [00:03:19] Tabs galore. Yeah, I'm sure hams loving it. 

Bryce: [00:03:22] She is loving it because she doesn't do anything. 

Alec: [00:03:24] You've been very quick on the organising. Like it's been impressive to say compared to some other people that I know who are engaged and taking it easy. You're like, you're getting it done. Well, that's the idea. 

Bryce: [00:03:35] So Ren enough on that. We've had a nice holiday thanks to everyone here. Engaged over summer in the summer series, we had a great time speaking to some of the CEOs and recording those episodes and tape diving on some really interesting companies. So thank you for and congratulations to all of the winners who we gave away $1000 over summer, which was awesome thanks to Super Hero, so we'll continue on that later this year. But bold predictions Ren. We start every year with some bold predictions. Of course, it's silly to really try and predict what is truly going to happen. So I'm coming at this with some reasonably bold predictions. Yeah, and just a bit of fun that we'll be checking in on these over the next 12 months. 

Alec: [00:04:18] Yeah, now we should be very clear that at the end of the year, we look at these predictions and we never but you know, we don't get that close to 100. We don't get close to 50, I think, no. So it's just a bit of a fun to frame the year. I've got some that are not as bold and I've got one that's so bold that it's stupid. 

Bryce: [00:04:39] Love that. We're also going to hear from a couple of our staff members. We've got Darcy coming in with a bold prediction and Alf as well that we'll get to share his bold prediction. 

Alec: [00:04:50] yeah. 

Bryce: [00:04:55] Sasha and Emily as well as on. So stick around for that at the end of the episode. So Ren, do you want to kick it off?

Alec: [00:05:02] I only know one of your bold predictions. We've made notes separately, so hopefully we don't have overlap. But I know where we do have a little bit of overlap. Is we both? A betting on consolidation. Yes. I think we're going to see consolidation in streaming. OK. Yeah, I think there's there's too many and I think that we're going to start seeing some mergers and acquisitions or some companies pull out in the space. So my bold prediction is we will see a merger or an acquisition between US streaming giants. And I'm talking to Netflix, Disney, Hulu, Peacock, Prime Video, Apple TV, HBO Max, Sling, Fubo, those others. But I just couldn't be bothered to list anymore. 

Bryce: [00:05:46] if you had to go really bold, I like it. I like it. If you had to go really bold. Could you pick a merger? 

Alec: [00:05:52] Well, I think the Apple buying a big name is, yeah, they've got the cash to do it. Maybe they see that as a way to just it feels like they're losing the race a little bit. Apple TV that feels like a big place. So, you know, really bold would be they buy Disney. 

Bryce: [00:06:10] What about Alphabet. Will they come into it? 

Alec: [00:06:11] Well, they've got YouTube, which is a streaming giant in its own right. And you could say, like Apple buying Netflix or Disney, it would be like massive Apple buying Disney. Would Apple buying unbelievable like, yeah, yeah. Epic. Well, I mean, what are they? What's their market cap at the moment? Disney 272.. 

Bryce: [00:06:33] Yeah, Netflix is much more achievable.

Alec: [00:06:36] I think Netflix is about the same to try to get us to 28. But you know, like Amazon just bought MGM Studios, the movie studio, partly, probably just to get all of their content on Amazon Prime. So we'll say nice consolidation in the streaming service sector. Well, I'll [00:06:55][18.6]

Bryce: [00:06:56] stick on that theme then in terms of acquisitions, mergers, consolidations. So the last mile is really heating up, we say here in Australia. Milk run, send volley. All these businesses trying to do for those delivery. [00:07:09][14.0]

Alec: [00:07:10] Yeah, for those outside of Australia, ten minute grocery shopping. [00:07:13][2.6]

Bryce: [00:07:13] or even outside of Sydney and Melbourne, to be honest, I know, I know [00:07:16][2.7]

Alec: [00:07:16] Wagga doesn't honestly, probably outside of like the eastern suburbs of Sydney. [00:07:19][3.1]

Bryce: [00:07:19] Yeah, the 35. Yeah, so these are what we're talking about here is start ups that are promising to deliver, you know, your core groceries within 10 minutes. [00:07:28][8.7]

Alec: [00:07:28] Honestly, it's like four minutes sometimes. Yeah, when you order. And it's not just like three things on the app, it's it's actually incredibly impressive. Yeah, but DoorDash over in the US have said they're about to do something similar. It's it's coming everywhere. [00:07:41][12.9]

Bryce: [00:07:42] Yeah, so it's really heating up here. My bold prediction is that this is an acquisition play for a lot of these companies. I imagine I can see that there's going to be consolidation in this space or a lot of the large retail chains who often struggle to fulfil this last mile will buy and acquire some of these companies. For example, you might see a Woolworths or a Coles come in and buy milk run. Just like Woollies bought Jimmy brings in Sydney to provide faster delivery of booze. They might do the same with the last mile start ups here, so watch this space. [00:08:19][36.8]

Alec: [00:08:19] Love that! Alright, do you want my stupid one? Tesla is not the most valuable car maker by the end of the year. [00:08:28][8.6]

Bryce: [00:08:28] OK, who is? [00:08:29][0.7]

Alec: [00:08:29] Well, so Tesla's about a trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, next biggest is Toyota at about 270 billion US Wow.Volkswagen, like 130 billion, which I think, isn't it? [00:08:40][10.5]

Bryce: [00:08:40] So you're really saying Tesla is wiped out or the other companies go gangbusters? [00:08:46][6.0]

Alec: [00:08:48] And I told you it's stupid, but I just like I just want to put something about. Sure. Sure, sure. [00:08:52][4.5]

Bryce: [00:08:53] OK, I will. [00:08:54][1.0]

Alec: [00:08:54] Other bold prediction I was thinking with Tesla was Elon isn't CEO by the end of the year. [00:08:59][4.5]

Bryce: [00:09:00] OK. by choice ? [00:09:03][2.7]

Alec: [00:09:03] probably by choice. I feel like he focuses on spaceX. Yeah, yeah. I'm going to make that a bold prediction as well. [00:09:09][5.9]

Bryce: [00:09:10] Are you going to write that down? Sure. That's a sub prediction to. All right. I'm going to go really silly as well. Then a metaverse avatar will be Time's Person of the year. [00:09:19][9.5]

Alec: [00:09:20] Well, that's pretty good. Oh my God. OK, guys, I feel like it's not far from the Sun, but [00:09:28][7.8]

Bryce: [00:09:30] this is the year. This is the year. Maybe I'm coming to eat a little. Probably. It might be a bit too early, but yeah, a metaverse avatar will be talking. [00:09:38][7.7]

Alec: [00:09:38] That's good. I like that. Yeah, yeah, OK. [00:09:40][1.9]

Bryce: [00:09:40] I don't know who. I don't know how it will play out. But yeah, bold prediction. [00:09:43][3.3]

Alec: [00:09:44] Wow. Yeah, I like that. Good prediction. Yeah. So inflation has been a big story, especially in the US. Seven percent last year, Australia was about three percent, which is a little bit more in the range. But look, it's definitely a story I'm going to say. American inflation will be under three percent in 2022. It will. They'll kill, it will be killed as a story. [00:10:06][21.8]

Bryce: [00:10:07] Wow. Yeah, OK, interesting. That has a lot of flow on effects, too, like everything that people are talking about at the moment. Yeah, yeah. So you think it is transitory still or that? [00:10:17][10.5]

Alec: [00:10:17] No. I think there was like a base effect. So there was big price increases, you know, as everything was reopened, supply chains on unwound, there's still unwinding. There's still a lot of issues, especially in the US with supply chains, with shipping all of that stuff. But I think over the course of the year, that will. [00:10:35][18.0]

Bryce: [00:10:36] So you think it's going to net out two three percent per annum less and less than three per cent per annum? Wow. Which means it's going to have to take a chill pill pretty quickly. [00:10:44][7.6]

Alec: [00:10:46] I mean, it can be hot and then [00:10:47][1.0]

Bryce: [00:10:48] and then fall off. [00:10:49][0.8]

Alec: [00:10:49] I mean, it's it's bold prediction. [00:10:50][1.1]

Bryce: [00:10:51] Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Nice. I'm kicking myself here. I've actually got a Tesla bold prediction, and it is completely contradictory to what you said. [00:10:58][7.1]

Alec: [00:10:59] That's just bad for the upside. Yeah, I know [00:11:01][2.6]

Bryce: [00:11:01] I should have. I should have looked at my notes a bit further. There's no doubt that I think electric cars is going to be a massive theme of 2022. We see governments, you know, putting out pretty hefty targets of how many electric cars they expect to be on the road in the make up of those. So I actually anticipate that Tesla keeps its competitors at bay and adds another 500 B to its market cap. OK, so I'm saying 1.5 trillion by the end of the year for Tesla. [00:11:30][28.9]

Alec: [00:11:31] Well, both of those predictions could be right. Which one yours and mine alone could not be CEO anymore? It could add 500 billion. But Toyota could just say up. True. True, true. True. [00:11:46][15.0]

Bryce: [00:11:47] Bold prediction. They add another 500 bill. So you undermine the dominant. I have not invested. I actually thought about it last year and never got into it. I really like the ETF. That BetaShares have brought out which one which is their electric car ETF. OK. I think that's going to be my play. [00:12:06][18.4]

Alec: [00:12:06] How much is Tesla in that ETF? [00:12:07][1.3]

Bryce: [00:12:08] I haven't had a look at it in that much detail, but I would imagine a fair chunk. [00:12:12][3.8]

Alec: [00:12:12] Yeah, yeah. [00:12:13][0.5]

Bryce: [00:12:14] Cool. What do you got? [00:12:14][0.8]

Alec: [00:12:15] Bold prediction China recovers and the way to measure is China's. But so Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent will outperform al named Ant Mama. OK, so America. Yeah, yeah. Which is Apple, Nvidia, Video, Tesla, Metta, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet. But the new index that we're trying to [00:12:36][20.9]

Bryce: [00:12:37] get off the ground [00:12:37][0.4]

Alec: [00:12:37] yet so that will outperform at mama on a percentage basis. [00:12:42][4.6]

Bryce: [00:12:43] Nice. They're coming off a pretty low base, which [00:12:45][2.7]

Alec: [00:12:45] very low base. Yeah, yeah. [00:12:47][1.2]

Bryce: [00:12:47] Yeah, yeah. We've spoken to Andrew Brown at the end of last year, and we've got him coming up next week for his bold predictions. And he's pretty strong on a China recovery as well. So yes, certainly say that one. Another good ETF he spoke about at the end of last year was the K Webb China Internet Store. [00:13:02][15.1]

Alec: [00:13:02] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Crane CSI China Internet. But yeah, the ticker is K Web, which I had a look. It's down two thirds from its peak in February last year, so hopefully it does better than last year. [00:13:18][15.3]

Bryce: [00:13:19] Well, speaking of recovery stocks a recovery, I've got one bold prediction Robin Hood shakes the hype. It's currently down 74 percent from its high. Late last year, shakes the hype and finishes up, and I'm going to throw in a spicy, bold prediction that it outperforms the S&P 500. [00:13:36][17.0]

Alec: [00:13:37] OK. Why Robinhood? [00:13:38][1.1]

Bryce: [00:13:39] I just feel that there's going to be some a lot of activity, more activity this year in markets, not just going to have a bit of a they've been battered down 74 percent. I can just say it's just one of those stocks that I can see turning around. So, yeah, if it has some good earnings, I don't know. It's a bold [00:13:56][17.5]

Alec: [00:13:57] prediction. And you just are you doing the Robinhood Snacks acquisition play? Like, Are you trying to get us in that good books say they're going to do? If you listen [00:14:05][8.3]

Bryce: [00:14:05] to Robinhood, I've got your back. [00:14:06][1.1]

Alec: [00:14:08] All right. This is what I'm pretty happy with. Alphabet's new pharmaceutical play Isom Morphic Labs. And so for those who haven't heard about it, they are using the Googles AI to discover new drugs. This new company, Isam Office Clubs, will find at least one blockbuster drug in 2022. [00:14:30][21.4]

Bryce: [00:14:31] And how do you define blockbuster drug [00:14:33][2.1]

Alec: [00:14:34] like captures headlines drug so similar? You saw the A.I. that found the MIT researchers that use A.I. to find the new antibiotic. Yeah, that was like groundbreaking. That sort of. [00:14:49][14.8]

Bryce: [00:14:50] Okay. Yeah. What are they? Have they done anything at this stage? [00:14:53][3.1]

Alec: [00:14:54] They've done a whole bunch of like mapping of proteins and stuff like that. But no, they haven't done drug discovery yet or they're about to try. [00:15:02][8.1]

Bryce: [00:15:03] So, you know, the bold prediction is that it's it's just a discovery of one or creation of one, not commercialisation, right? [00:15:11][8.5]

Alec: [00:15:11] No. And then you've got to like test. Yeah, you know, stuff. Yeah, yeah. Like, I'm not saying the FDA will be able to approve it in a year, but I'm saying they discover something that's like a blockbuster. It's like people like A.I. for drug discovery is an amazing use case. [00:15:27][16.3]

Bryce: [00:15:28] Okay, epic. That'd be good for humanity when that happens. [00:15:32][4.0]

Alec: [00:15:32] Be good for Alphabet shareholders as well. [00:15:34][1.5]

Bryce: [00:15:36] Bold prediction on my side, Twitter is acquired [00:15:39][2.3]

Alec: [00:15:40] all well by a crypto platform. Oh wow. [00:15:44][3.9]

Bryce: [00:15:45] Oh, by Square. Dorsey just [00:15:47][2.8]

Alec: [00:15:48] goes, Oh, Joe [00:15:50][1.4]

Bryce: [00:15:50] Dorsey just comes in via advisor. So I think it's multifaceted. I think Twitter Twitter is acquired, but I think it's acquired by the crypto platform. Who wants audience and or Square? Who wants? Who wants audience? [00:16:06][15.1]

Alec: [00:16:06] I don't say it for Square. I see the Twitter being acquired. It's such a valuable asset that's under monetised, but like the amount of people that use it and [00:16:15][8.3]

Bryce: [00:16:15] I can't see what happens. It's pretty Batan at the moment as well. Yeah, a lot of [00:16:20][4.4]

Alec: [00:16:20] stuff is, but it got into the 60s and then it's like back into the 40s, or maybe even the low 30s. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Who could acquire Twitter, Facebook? [00:16:28][7.8]

Bryce: [00:16:29] Yeah, any of those top guys? [00:16:30][1.1]

Alec: [00:16:31] Well, I mean, like the regulators wouldn't know. [00:16:33][2.0]

Bryce: [00:16:33] Yeah, yeah. I think it's someone who a Twitter [00:16:36][3.0]

Alec: [00:16:37] read a merger would be interesting. [00:16:38][1.3]

Bryce: [00:16:39] Yeah. Equity Mates. [00:16:40][1.0]

Alec: [00:16:42] Maybe like a News News Corp. [00:16:44][1.7]

Bryce: [00:16:45] Yeah, yeah, yeah, well, it's interesting, I have a New York Times one here, but it's too expensive for the New York Times. They wouldn't be they wouldn't be buying. Yeah, Twitter. News Corp.. That's interesting. [00:16:55][10.4]

Alec: [00:16:56] I mean, News Corp is the same as New York Times. Yeah, that was. [00:16:59][3.0]

Bryce: [00:17:00] Yeah, yeah. But there you go. Twitter is acquired by a crypto platform. [00:17:03][3.8]

Alec: [00:17:04] OK. This is a this is a two fold Covid prediction. So first prediction is, we'll say, another Covid variant by the year's end. I've labelled that as a not so bold prediction. OK, I think that's almost certain. Yeah, but then the second thing is, at least one Australian state will have another major lockdown [00:17:24][20.0]

Bryce: [00:17:25] Western Australia or [00:17:26][1.3]

Alec: [00:17:27] Victoria, all like if it goes, if it gets out in the Northern Territory, maybe that [00:17:31][4.7]

Bryce: [00:17:32] based off a new variant or these are two kind of separate, just separate [00:17:35][3.2]

Alec: [00:17:36] or separate, but probably linked to a [00:17:39][3.2]

Bryce: [00:17:40] change that would be heavy. Get your boosters. All right. So I've got a I'm just going to tie a couple in here and they're all kind of central bank fed. [00:17:49][9.8]

Alec: [00:17:50] Hold on before you do. Before you do that, should we just take a quick break to hear from? Sure, let's do it. We're back. Nice. All right, you were going to type you in. I'm just [00:18:00][10.1]

Bryce: [00:18:01] going to. So yeah, these are kind of three into one. I think that the Fed will lift rates too early. They'll freak out and then they won't raise rates for the rest of the year. OK, then the US markets, despite what everyone's saying, will finish higher and I'm talking double digits higher. I think not 20 percent like we've seen, but I think in the range of 10 to 20 percent that will be driven by at Mama tale of two is a tale of two halves. [00:18:28][28.0]

Alec: [00:18:29] Is that the right phrase? I know what you're saying. Like you're saying the the tale of the stock market. Yeah, yeah. [00:18:35][6.3]

Bryce: [00:18:35] I think at Mama will continue to just exceed expectation and dry drive the market. And then if I'm to come home here, the RBA have signals signalled that they won't be raising interest rates in 2022, but I reckon there'll be one interest rate rise. Okay. [00:18:51][16.0]

Alec: [00:18:52] I like it. I can see all of that playing out. I mean, the whole raising rates too quickly and freaking out was exactly what happened at the end of 2018. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. And I think, [00:19:02][9.4]

Bryce: [00:19:02] have they learnt from that ordinary? [00:19:03][1.0]

Alec: [00:19:04] Surely. I mean, the fact that we know that it happened, you would hope that senior government policymakers have also realised what happens. Yeah, sure. [00:19:12][8.5]

Bryce: [00:19:13] But I, you know, every time you hear about it, there's it's going from two rates to three rises, two people now saying seven, and that's not the Fed, mind you. That's analysts having that prediction as to how many rate rises we might see next year. Well, I think kind of similar to you that your first prediction was [00:19:30][17.2]

Alec: [00:19:31] inflation will come [00:19:31][0.6]

Bryce: [00:19:32] on. Yeah, inflation comes down to three per cent of to that. OK. So three there, three wrapped into one. But I think I like it might be a similar story as to what we're seeing this year [00:19:41][9.1]

Alec: [00:19:42] staying in the US. There's a lot of noise around antitrust at the moment. So like competition law, Facebook is getting sued. I think we will see a major antitrust win in the US for after about a decade of regulators not doing anything with antitrust. We'll see a major court win. Obviously a major piece of legislation passed nice because there's nothing that Republicans and Democrats can agree on except Big Tech. They hoping that [00:20:15][33.4]

Bryce: [00:20:18] we spoke about this a bit on the Elizabeth show last year. Who's the new woman that's come in to lead this? [00:20:25][6.7]

Alec: [00:20:25] Yeah. Lina Khan, that's it. [00:20:27][1.7]

Bryce: [00:20:27] Lina Khan, she's on a mission. She's on a mission. Have if it's caught, who wins it? I think Court Corp is not what you said. A major corporation will either win. [00:20:37][9.8]

Alec: [00:20:37] No, I said there will be a major antitrust win [00:20:40][2.9]

Bryce: [00:20:41] in the US. Yeah. And didn't you say either side, though, like a [00:20:44][3.2]

Alec: [00:20:45] no, no. I said, Oh, sorry, sorry. I said court. Like, I know they'll have a winning board. [00:20:49][4.0]

Bryce: [00:20:50] Oh, sorry, [00:20:50][0.2]

Alec: [00:20:50] or there will be a big piece of legislation. Okay, got you. Got you, got you. Got you. And like, I don't know what it will be. It might be like the they block this Activision Blizzard acquisition, although that feels unlikely. Maybe they'll say there's some like upstream impacts if Microsoft is just going to keep all their games for Xbox and not share them with PlayStation and Sony. But like, maybe they block that. Maybe they break up Facebook. Maybe they break up Google. Maybe they get a whole bunch of extra powers from a new law. I just feel like there will be something before the midterm. Mm hmm. Yeah. [00:21:28][38.1]

Bryce: [00:21:30] Nice. Okay. Note that down. I'm going to put a forward prediction. This quite sombre one, actually. Forward prediction for 2023. But I've got to note it now that 2022 will be the last time that we see Munga and Buffett at Berkshire AGM, [00:21:45][15.5]

Alec: [00:21:46] really, but not [00:21:47][0.9]

Bryce: [00:21:47] because of a death, perhaps, but just because. Too old to rock ark. [00:21:51][3.8]

Alec: [00:21:51] Yeah, I mean, there one night, I [00:21:54][2.7]

Bryce: [00:21:54] think I think Mongeau will be 99 this year when he's something something crazy. He did. We saw him at the Stone Hearts and Minds conference, and despite being still pretty switched on, was looking very frail. [00:22:05][11.5]

Alec: [00:22:06] I there you guys. Charlie Munger. His birthday is the first of January. So happy birthday, Charlie Obeida Charlie. So he's ninety point eighty eight nineteen twenty four. Buffett is 91. [00:22:16][10.3]

Bryce: [00:22:17] I still got a few a few years left. [00:22:19][1.4]

Alec: [00:22:19] Do you know Buffett's birthday now? 30TH of August 1930? There you go. [00:22:24][4.8]

Bryce: [00:22:25] So yeah, calling it now won't know until 2023. [00:22:28][3.3]

Alec: [00:22:29] Okay. I like that. I mean, I don't like, yeah, I get has to happen. But it's a good prediction. Yeah. Coming home to Australia, I feel this is a bold prediction. Australia will have a carbon price by the end of the year. Oh, really? Yeah. Okay. There is an election that was [00:22:44][14.3]

Bryce: [00:22:44] going to say actually that probably [00:22:45][1.1]

Alec: [00:22:46] in May, but I'm not going to limit it. I'm not going to say we will have a minority government and the independents will force it or that Labour will win. I'm not going. So I'm just going to say we're going to have a carbon price by the end. [00:22:59][13.5]

Bryce: [00:22:59] I like that it's all think it has to be labour [00:23:01][2.0]

Alec: [00:23:01] government, you know? But you say that annoys me so much and don't get me started on this. But the most free market way to deal with climate change is to price the externality and let the market respond. Put a price on carbon and let businesses respond. Was who is no small government free market party? Not on board with that? Yeah, because they enjoy political political donations anyway. I told you not to get me started on that. What do you got? [00:23:35][33.5]

Bryce: [00:23:36] What have I got? I think the New York Times is on a mission for subscribers. We know that they said they want 10 million paid subscribers by 2025. They're not quite there yet. They've got a long way to go. They're now buying their way to get it. They paid five hundred and fifty million to buy The Athletic, which had a million paid subscribers. Still a long way to go. I think that will see them make another reasonable acquisition to the same value or more in 2022. [00:23:59][22.7]

Alec: [00:24:00] Oh yeah, like an Equity Mates. Well, to be fair, they're fine. [00:24:03][3.1]

Bryce: [00:24:03] Exactly, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. For unfortunately, we don't quite have a million paid subscribers, but by the end of 2022, which is another of my bold prediction, see, Equity Mates goes thermonuclear. [00:24:13][10.1]

Alec: [00:24:16] OK. OK. Not that bold. Yeah, sure. All right. I've got a prediction. OK, not AFL, though. OK. Australia will win a gold medal at the Winter Olympics. [00:24:29][12.9]

Bryce: [00:24:31] OK, I'm forgetting the context. [00:24:33][1.7]

Alec: [00:24:34] Yeah. In 2018, we won two silvers and one bronze [00:24:37][3.8]

Bryce: [00:24:38] snowboarding men's snowboarding. [00:24:39][0.9]

Alec: [00:24:40] I'm not making, I'm not saying, you know, was that these two silvers today? And then in 2014, we also won two silvers and one bronze. [00:24:48][7.8]

Bryce: [00:24:49] OK, nice. I like it. If I was to add to that, I'd have to put my money on this. Scotty James, if he is, [00:24:54][5.7]

Alec: [00:24:55] I'm hoping they will. Steven Bradbury moment like alfalfa telling me yesterday that we've got a curling team for the first time. You know, like let's let's say that [00:25:05][10.1]

Bryce: [00:25:08] when other Winter Olympics soon? [00:25:09][1.1]

Alec: [00:25:09] Yeah, they're in China. [00:25:10][0.6]

Bryce: [00:25:10] Yeah, yeah, we so we haven't boycott them. [00:25:13][2.4]

Alec: [00:25:13] No, we've diplomatically. That's right. So we're still sending a team, but I don't know. We don't send officials or something. [00:25:19][6.2]

Bryce: [00:25:20] Does that make much of a difference? [00:25:21][0.8]

Alec: [00:25:21] Well, it does to China, does it? Well, they're annoyed. All. Yeah. [00:25:25][3.3]

Bryce: [00:25:27] But what do you got in terms of sectors and industries that I'm keen on? I think that we'll continue to see the semiconductor industry absolutely smashed this year. I'm going to say double digit growth of 15 percent or more, and we're going to take that as the index. Let's take Sammy as the yardstick. The ATF semi, the [00:25:47][19.3]

Alec: [00:25:47] ATF securities ATF. [00:25:48][1.0]

Bryce: [00:25:48] Yeah, OK. 15 per cent from now until the end of the year. [00:25:51][2.6]

Alec: [00:25:52] I don't feel that's a bold 20. OK, so two not so bold political predictions. Macron will be re-elected in France. Oh yeah, which actually, you know, a couple of years ago, his approval rating was in the 20s. But I studied. I saw he was celebrating yesterday, the 25th French unicorn. Oh, wow, I was like, That's pretty cool. Getting around the Start-Up scene, trying to build it out. [00:26:20][28.4]

Bryce: [00:26:21] Yeah, nice. Twenty five. Yeah, would know any of them. What I think. [00:26:24][2.9]

Alec: [00:26:24] Yeah, maybe you know some of them. A lot of robotics, a lot of industrial stuff, which yeah. Right? And then another one. The Democrats will get swept at the midterm election. In the US, heavy Republicans will control both the House and the Senate. Wow. Yeah. [00:26:39][14.6]

Bryce: [00:26:40] Alright. Well, I'm just going to close out with another silly one. I think one of our team members here at Equity Mates will get rug pulled this year. And if you're not sure what that means, it means you get swept up in a crypto scam. It's either going to be dark or alive. I think particularly could be made. [00:27:01][20.9]

Alec: [00:27:01] It could be someone could be Sasha. That is true. That's a bit of FOMO and is trying to get exciting. Yeah, yeah, yeah. [00:27:07][5.5]

Bryce: [00:27:07] But looking for it, looking for a rug for here? [00:27:10][2.7]

Alec: [00:27:11] Um, I'm pretty confident it won't be me. Yeah, it won't be here. [00:27:15][4.2]

Bryce: [00:27:16] I'm not going to predict anything around corrections or anything this year. We never know. We we talk about it every year. You know, there's Jeremy Grantham, who's shouting from the rooftops at the moment about, we're going to say, the most historic loss of value that we've seen. And it's mean he's been talking about it for three years. We talk about it every year. So I think it would be silly to try and forecast anything like that, but it feels like it could be a buyer beware situation. [00:27:42][26.4]

Alec: [00:27:43] But I think the one thing that I've got a lot better at over the however long we've been investing what like eight years now is that you really just can block out a lot of that noise and you can just consistently put money into the market. And yeah, you really early days, you really read those articles and you took it to heart. Yeah, yeah. Now it's sort of like at some point the market will crash and mentally, I'm ready for that. Yeah, that's [00:28:09][26.3]

Bryce: [00:28:10] I think that's the key thing. It's like, yes, the argument. Yes, it is likely to happen at some point. Prepare yourself for it. Be ready for it. Mentally, prepare yourself that your stock market, your portfolio is going to take a beating. [00:28:23][13.3]

Alec: [00:28:23] Yeah, and have a good process [00:28:24][0.8]

Bryce: [00:28:24] and have a good process. Exactly. [00:28:26][1.0]

Alec: [00:28:26] Put some every paycheque or whatever puts them in the market puts them in cash. And then when the market collapses, get that cash, put it in the market. It's not rocket science, [00:28:36][9.8]

Bryce: [00:28:36] not rocket science. And if you are overly concerned, don't put as much money in the markets as you might have been doing. I've got one more on the AFL front as we always close out, but yeah, any more to close out Ren. [00:28:47][11.0]

Alec: [00:28:48] This is this is not so much a bold prediction as just a hopeful swing in the dark. My three previous stock of the predictions Adam Moss, Costa and Tencent. Yeah, will outperform your three stock your predictions on a percentage basis. Roadblocks city shake. Yeah, I can't remember your third one. [00:29:09][21.5]

Bryce: [00:29:10] I'll have to go back and look it up, but I'm sure it shows a bang on. Bring it on like that. That's actually a good one. Thanks, bro. Well, we've got our Stock of the Year episode coming up next week. So will I like that? All right, deal. I'm going to close out. And say that look, last year, I said that Essendon would get the wooden spoon, I copped a lot of heat from that, saying How can you be so uninspired and negative about your football team? So this year, I'm going to say that Essendon win their first final since 2004, so they haven't. They've played finals, but they haven't won any. The last time they won was 2004. We made the finals last year, backing the boys in to win a final this year. [00:29:49][39.4]

Alec: [00:29:49] Okay, so I was just going to say for my bold predictions, swans make top four, but that's not that bowl like this one's a good looking shot. Yeah. Then I found out the date of your wedding is the October long weekend. [00:30:03][13.3]

Bryce: [00:30:05] It's not it's not the grand final, [00:30:06][1.1]

Alec: [00:30:06] it's but is it the week after the grand final? Yeah. And are you confident on that? Because I'm pretty sure we've been bleeding into October the last few years. [00:30:13][7.0]

Bryce: [00:30:14] No, last year we didn't. It was the end of it was the end of September last year. [00:30:17][3.6]

Alec: [00:30:18] OK. And you checked it? [00:30:18][0.9]

Bryce: [00:30:19] Yeah, it's on the 24th of September. We're back to the O.J. lost sponsor. Yeah, last weekend of September. [00:30:25][6.2]

Alec: [00:30:26] So here's my bold prediction and it has two parts, and it might tie in with my earlier prediction about COVID lockdowns. Okay. The grand final is on your wedding. Wake up [00:30:37][11.3]

Bryce: [00:30:38] every. Really every. [00:30:39][1.0]

Alec: [00:30:40] No. Just set up a TV or something. It's fun to have my mind. So that's part one. And Part two is the Swans and Essendon. Oh wow. [00:30:47][7.3]

Bryce: [00:30:50] I would feel highly conflicted. If that's [00:30:52][2.3]

Alec: [00:30:52] the case. [00:30:52][0.1]

Bryce: [00:30:54] I'd be so devastating if it does fall and that is the case. But anyway, we can't do anything about it. Nice one. Well, nice way to [00:31:01][7.0]

Alec: [00:31:01] claim my parents got married in on the 1989 grand final weekend, but they didn't [00:31:07][5.5]

Bryce: [00:31:07] follow [00:31:07][0.0]

Alec: [00:31:07] AFL. No, but it was a cracking grand final. Geelong Hawthorn. Yeah, they didn't follow us. [00:31:11][3.9]

Bryce: [00:31:13] So before we close out, we did say we'll hear from a couple of our team members with their bold predictions one each. Some of them are pretty bold as well, so we're going to throw it to Darcy Alf and any of the others that want to come on and share. And then, yeah, we'll leave it there. [00:31:29][16.0]

Alec: [00:31:29] Ren Yeah, sounds good. [00:31:30][0.8]

Bryce: [00:31:35] So now we've got Darcy, our content manager here at Equity Mates,back in the office. Darcy, welcome. It's our very first bold predictions with you. You know, obviously how this all works. We are after something bold. You've got something bold. What's your bold prediction for 2022? [00:31:54][19.4]

Darcy: [00:31:56] My bold prediction is that Nvidia will become one of the top three companies in the world by market cap. So currently at six hundred and seventy three billion dollar market cap, it's got a long way to go. that's my bold prediction for 2022 [00:32:11][15.7]

Bryce: [00:32:12] I have a lot of respect for that. Very bold to put this into context, as you said, six hundred and whatever $60 billion market cap. So it's got to knock off Berkshire Hathaway 700 billion TSMC matter, otherwise known as Facebook, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet. Then we hit Saudi Aramco, just shy of two trillion and then Microsoft and Apple. OK. So you reckon it's going to go from six hundred and fifty billion to over $2 trillion if everything stays similar to it is now? Love it. Very bold. And that's why we're here confident on that. So we've got Alf our head of growth of Happy New Year. 

Alf: [00:32:55] Thanks, Brick. How's it going?

Bryce: [00:32:56] Good, good. So bold prediction 2022 to your first year at Equity Mates Media. Yeah. What do we 

Alf: [00:33:03] got? OK, so my bold prediction is for 2022, we're going to see the magma stocks continue to rally well, despite the recent dip, they're going to rally in 2020. Okay. 

Bryce: [00:33:16] Two. So firstly, magma. 

Alf: [00:33:18] Yeah, so magma. That's Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Apple. 

Bryce: [00:33:25] OK, yeah. What? What's so bold about that?

Alf: [00:33:28] Okay, so let me tell you how bad it is. So first, the rationale behind it these massive tech companies, huge customer base, some of the best business leaders in the world at the helm, they're diversifying. We just saw Microsoft buy Activision Blizzard this week repositioning themselves for younger audiences. Metta announced just today they're integrating NFTs onto Facebook and Instagram. So, yeah, all these different moves and just the amount of cash they have have, and I think the big dogs are going to continue to run. Okay. Yeah. If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch. 

Bryce: [00:34:07] So how are we measuring this? 

Alf: [00:34:10] Okay, so the current combined market cap of the magma stocks know 9.1. Four trillion, I'm going to say by the end of 2022, they're going to hit 11 trillion, a twenty point three percent increase 

Bryce: [00:34:26] to only 20. 

Alf: [00:34:28] That's still board. That is 20. Is this in one year 

Bryce: [00:34:31] they pumped out like twenty eight last year or something, something similar? Yeah, yeah. 

Alf: [00:34:35] But that's unsustainable. I think 20 percent is still volatile. 11, 11 trillion. Yeah, yeah, it's huge. 

Bryce: [00:34:42] OK. And all right, and who's going to be the winner of those five? 

Alf: [00:34:48] I think Satya Nadella is an excellent business leader. Microsoft? Yes. And just the recent moves they've made with their acquisitions. I think Microsoft's going to carry the others to an extent, but I think it will be a joint effort. 

Bryce: [00:35:03] Nice. All right. Well, how did he first Magnus stocks to rise? 20 percent. Microsoft, Apple, Google Matter and Amazon got it $11 trillion by the end of 2020 to let's do it. Nice. Well, they go a couple of bold predictions from our team members now before we wrap up. A reminder that our talk of money to me goes Candace and Felicity have spoken about the 22 stocks for 2022. So go over and check that out. If you're interested in hearing their view on some of the stocks on their watch list in order pads for the year to come. Don't forget there's plenty of other content in the Equity Mates media network. Well, we've got seven shows. There's something there for everyone. So go and have a listen. Best place to find it all Equity Mates dot com. It's all on the website, so I hope you all had a great summer. We're really looking forward to this year as as always, and we'll pick it up next week. Ren. Sounds good.