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Trading Talk: Is this a bull trap?

HOSTS Alec Renehan & Bryce Leske|20 April, 2020

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2020 has been a volatile year. Using the American S&P 500, the market reached a high on 19 Feb, fell 34% (1,149 points) and then has risen 28% (637 points). While the market has not fully recovered, there is a sentiment amongst some commentators that ‘the worst is over’.

With the economy still in lockdown and the news on coronavirus still concerning, it got us thinking – can the worst really be over? That led us to research some previous market crashes, and introduced us to the idea of a ‘bull trap’.

We unpack what we learned in this episode. By going through some lessons from history, we see that previous market crashes have followed a similar pattern – an initial fall, a partial recovery (50% retracement) and then a further fall where the market tests (and often breaks) the previous low.

It is important to note that this doesn’t always happen in market falls. So this is not a foregone conclusion. However, it is in the range of possible outcomes.

With this information in mind, we then talk about how we’re positioning our portfolios. Including one thing that Ren has done that surprised Bryce.

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Equity Mates Investing Podcast is a product of Equity Mates Media. 

All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only. Equity Mates gives listeners access to information and educational content provided by a range of financial services professionals. It is not intended as a substitute for professional finance, legal or tax advice. 

The hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast are not financial professionals and are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Equity Mates Media does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given.

Before making any financial decisions you should read the Product Disclosure Statement and, if necessary, consult a licensed financial professional. 

Do not take financial advice from a podcast. 

For more information head to the disclaimer page on the Equity Mates website where you can find ASIC resources and find a registered financial professional near you. 

In the spirit of reconciliation, Equity Mates Media and the hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respects to their elders past and present and expend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people today. 

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Meet your hosts

  • Alec Renehan

    Alec Renehan

    Equity Mates Co-Founder

    Alec developed an interest in investing after realising he was spending all that he was earning. Investing became his form of 'forced saving'. While his first investment, Slater and Gordon (SGH), was a resounding failure, he learnt a lot from that experience. He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can.
  • Bryce Leske

    Bryce Leske

    Equity Mates Co-Founder

    Bryce has had an interest in the stock market since his parents encouraged him to save 50c a fortnight from the age of 5. Once he had saved $500 he bought his first stock - BKI - a Listed Investment Company (LIC), and since then hasn't stopped. He hopes that Equity Mates can help make investing understandable and accessible. He loves the Essendon Football Club, and lives in Sydney.
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