Buy or Sell with Adam Keily and Adam Dawes

Adam: [00:00:58] Hello and welcome. This is Buy or Sell coming to you from the no holds bar here at Equity Mates HQ. I am your host, Adam Kiely. Regarded by many as one of the simplest minds in finance. Luckily for us, though, I'm joined by an expert. Educate me and hopefully you on how they're thinking about stocks and the stocks they're thinking about. It's rapid fire, though. Buy or Sell, we're going to rip through as many stocks as we can in the time that we have. And don't forget, you can keep, you can keep an eye on each stock on the Buy or Sell tracker, very fancy tracker on the equity mate's website. And today I'm very pleased to be joined once again welcoming back to the no holds bar Adam Dawes. Welcome, Adam. 

Adam Dawes: [00:01:39] Thank you. It's great to be here.

Adam: [00:01:41] Fantastic to have you, senior investment advisor and all around good guy at Shaw and Partners. 

Adam Dawes: [00:01:46] I'll take that. I'll take it any time. 

Adam: [00:01:49] Now, we do like to offer our guests. We're very hospitable here in the no holds bar, and would like to offer our guests a drink. Adam, I think last time you went with a tequila. Old fashioned. Before you order, I'll let you know that the signature cocktail this week, in honour of stocks doing well again, is the pina colada. What can I get? What can I get for you is that I. 

Adam Dawes: [00:02:13] Don't want a good old pina colada. Here we go. Something a little bit different. I'm going to go to Midori Splice. 

Adam: [00:02:18] Just for a splash.

Adam Dawes: [00:02:19] Just for all the ladies out there. 

Adam: [00:02:21] Oh, lovely. That Midori takes me back to drinking my parents' alcohol when I was 17. 

Adam Dawes: [00:02:27] Definitely. 

Adam: [00:02:30] We got a bit of a mixed show today. Adam, we're going to look at, I think five of your stocks that you had that you picked last time you're on the show, we're going to, we're going to pick out some highlights. We're going to ignore all the ones that didn't do well.

Adam Dawes: [00:02:42] No, don't do that. 

Adam: [00:02:42] We're going to pick out some highlights, as well as get some, some fresh, hot new takes from you, which I'm very much looking forward to. But overall, after you were last on the show, you're up 22%. According to the Equity Minds Tracker. Happy with 22%. 

Adam Dawes: [00:02:58] I'll take it. Absolutely, absolutely. 

Adam: [00:03:01] All right, let's get stuck straight in. And first of all, we're looking at Amaero International ASX 3DA, you called it a buy at $0.23. 

Adam Dawes: [00:03:12] And what price is it today? 

Adam: [00:03:14] Currently trading at $0.42. We're up 82.61%. Now, I was reading the Australian Manufacturing Forum the other day. So I do I saw they've cut ties with Australia to focus on the US. It doesn't get much more in-australian than that. Yeah, but 82% profit. I'm happy to turn my back on Australia as well.

Adam Dawes: [00:03:36] Yeah, absolutely. Well, we're going to start the show with a little bit of a speculative one. Potentially we can finish the show with speculative ones as well. So it's really a great business. But the reason why they got rid of the Australian manufacturing and now we're looking at the Middle East as well. But they've decided to go with the United States, because the United States is looking for a critical minerals list. Now, that critical minerals list is basically the way where, America can actually then source ingredients from local companies or companies that are within America or that have very good ties. So, in other words, not China. 

Adam: [00:04:11] Yeah, right. 

Adam Dawes: [00:04:12] Okay. So basically getting rid of. 

Adam: [00:04:14] I love all of the myriad ways we can come up with saying not China. 

Adam Dawes: [00:04:18] Not China. 

Adam: [00:04:18] Exactly. Yeah. 

Adam Dawes: [00:04:19] Or China. But anyway, so yeah. So 3DA going to the, they're going to be producing or manufacturing special parts that go into very large defence businesses or rockets or, you know, those kinds of things. So it's a 3D printing business. And it's a business that has has some fantastic long term growth opportunities. So we're expecting that to continue hoping that it does get over $0.50 and even higher. We are expecting the new management that's come in Hank. He's very, very good at what he's done. And he's taken this business from a ten cent, five cent stock now to a 40 cent stock. And then we'll continue to rally that, and continue to grow. So 3da I'm still going to stick with a buy. 

Adam: [00:05:00] Still a buy even now. 

Adam Dawes: [00:05:01] Absolutely. There's still some more headroom to go on that one. We're really comfortable with it. And in those small cap stocks you need to know management. We know Hank very, very well. And we understand his business and what he's doing. And I think that is the key to success in small cap land is understanding one sector but then two management. So stick with a buy on 3DA. 

Adam: [00:05:22] To buy for Amaero. All right. Next up we're looking at Sandfire Resources ASX SFR, you quoted a buy at $5.78 last time. Yeah. $8.97, up 55%, if you don't mind. Sandfire Resources has been literally on fire. For, when I say literally, of course, I mean figuratively.

Adam Dawes: [00:05:42] Of course. Yeah. 

Adam: [00:05:43] Correct. Still a buy.

Adam Dawes: [00:05:46] Yeah. Look, this is one ongoing. I know it's a Buy or Sell section, but we're going to say hold. Or if I can say switch. 

Adam: [00:05:53] Switch. 

Adam Dawes: [00:05:54] Okay, okay. So I like Sandfire has run its course. The real reason why we like Sandfire is copper. Copper is one of those metals that has been underinvested in the last five years. There's no new mines coming on, and we need tons and tons and tons for the energy transition that is about to happen within our world. It's already happening, but it needs a lot more. And copper is one of those metals. That is one it's a focus on growth as well as that. We need it for that energy transition because it is a metal that conducts electricity at lower temperatures. So it's very, very much needed in solar farms, wind farms, batteries, everything else in the world. So Sandfire has had a really good run, started to plateau a little bit out here. And what I'm going to say is a switch into Wire. WIRE and this is the bonus one. 

Adam: [00:06:41] It's an ETF. Yeah. 

Adam Dawes: [00:06:42] And it concentrates on copper producers globally. Okay. So it's got BHP in it. You know it's got to forget for gas to in it. It's got many of the major copper producers in there. And this is one way you can diversify your portfolio by de-risk your portfolio from one stock to many stocks. The stock code is WIRE, Wire and it's an ETF on the Australian Stock Exchange. 

Adam: [00:07:05] Brilliant WIRE is a buy. Excellent.

Adam: [00:07:09] Next up we're looking at Goodman Group ASX GM. You really the all the guys. GMG you called it a buy at $21.11 $32.32 at the moment, 53%. Goodman Group, better Call Saul, obviously. 

Adam Dawes: [00:07:28] It's right. Yeah. 

Adam: [00:07:30] Because it's on fire. 

Adam Dawes: [00:07:31] It is on fire. Going, okay, so why has this one run this boring industrial rate raise in a real estate investment in trust? And it's basically a very boring stock. But why the market has got so excited about this is that they're turning a lot of their industrial parks. You would have seen them as you drive past. It's like a good green Goodman Group sign on this side. And it doesn't look like much from the outside. But if you drive in this is massive expansion of industrial areas. What they're doing is they're converting a lot of those industrial parks to data centres. Yeah, right. And those data centres are very much needed by Amazon, Google, all of the large companies where we need to store all of our data. So you're gonna press me on this one. Is it to a buy hold or sell? 

Adam: [00:08:13] Yeah, absolutely. 

Adam Dawes: [00:08:14] The reason why Goodman Group is run is because obviously the data centres. But it has been put into a couple of Asian mandates. For property trusts. And that is what's led it to move higher. I really like this business. 

Adam: [00:08:26] So it's on like a preferred suppliers list on hand. 

Adam Dawes: [00:08:30] So mandates is for fund managers that need to get access to property trust across Asia. And Goodman Group has been put into one of those logic, like approved lists that fundies can buy. And that's why it's really started to rally. And it's a fantastic business. And you wouldn't want to sell it any day, because I think it's going to keep continuing to go further. But for a trader I would be selling it. Because I think it's had a really good run. And can it keep this $30 plus sticker. Maybe it can, but for long term buying holds I would be continuing to keep holding it. And I wouldn't put fresh money into it here. So it's not a nut. 

Adam: [00:09:09] Company has historically gotten smaller. So yeah. Theory maybe we need less place to keep.

Adam Dawes: [00:09:15] Well where does all the data go for this podcast? Where's all the data go for your emails? How many videos are uploaded to YouTube on a day to day basis? Yeah, all that data has got to go somewhere and it can't be just stored on your computer. Or my data has to be stored on servers. And that's where the growth is happening through those servers. 

Adam: [00:09:32] Yeah. And I would hate to lose all those DIY file videos I don't know. Well I don't know what all we do okay. Videos one or the other okay. All right. So Goodman Group is. 

Adam Dawes: [00:09:41] So no fresh money. Fresh money traders would sell you 50% tax. Yeah, absolutely. Take it, for a long term buy and hold strategy. It's it's a major part of any one of my portfolios for my clients. And I'm going to continue to hold it. But no fresh new money.

Adam: [00:09:58] next up we're looking at BHP Group, ASX, BHP unsurprisingly, you quoted a buy at $43.36, $43.90 currently. Yeah, up 1.25%. 

Adam Dawes: [00:10:10] It's a horrible return is it? 

Adam: [00:10:12] I've lost any money just yet. 

Adam Dawes: [00:10:14] Just yet. 

Adam: [00:10:15] It's not nothing. Yeah, it's close to nothing. But it's not nothing. Starting off a pretty large base though, right, with BHP, so. 

Adam Dawes: [00:10:21] Very much so. It's 11% of our index. So whatever happens with BHP, basically we'll Amaero is our index. Or if BHP is having a down day, our index definitely drags in various ways. Having a good day. Our index will move higher. Yeah. So I think it's a portfolio staple I think you need to have it in there. One of the things that it does have is about 60% of its revenue comes from iron ore. And so we've got to be a little bit careful with iron ore. It has been floating around the $100 level. Without any fresh stimulus in China, you won't get a lot of iron ore rallying. And we're going to talk about at the end of the show, so wait to see. But there's more and more mines coming on that is going to basically hurt BHP's overall iron ore side of things. However, BHP has copper, one of the biggest copper mines in the world. Yep, they've got iron ore and they've got some couple of other commodities. So it's for me it's a buy because it's a portfolio stock. Everybody should have some BHP in their portfolio that pays good dividends. But just be careful with that iron ore price. So I think you could probably pick it up a little bit cheaper. Anything around the $38 mark is always good. Buying and selling at $50. You've got a good chart over 10 to 20 years, right. And it basically sits in a range of 38 to $50. 

Adam: [00:11:37] So that's Interesting. So we're not buying it looking for big gains over the next 1020 years. It's kind of more of a trader. 

Adam Dawes: [00:11:43] Yeah as well. Instead it's a staple of any portfolio. So it pays good dividends. It's a good quality business. And I think you need to have quality businesses because we've got the spiky ones on the other side of it, but we need to have good quality businesses there. and BHP does tick all of those boxes. So it's a buy. But maybe just wait a little bit. If it gets down to close to that $40 mark or even $38, that's when you'd be looking to pick it up. 

Adam: [00:12:10] Alright excellent. Woolworths Group ASX w o w you call it a hold. Well it's $36.95. Yeah. 

Adam Dawes: [00:12:19] What is it today? 

Adam: [00:12:20] It's $32.41. So we're down 12.29%. Good news if you didn't already own any, I suppose, I see Woollies is actually under fire at the moment for not selling RSL Anzac biscuits across the store.

Adam Dawes: [00:12:35] Yes, yes. 

Adam: [00:12:37] But on the other hand, Pauline Hanson has come out and promised that she's not going to shop there anymore. So I don't know, I'm a bit torn because I like Anzac biscuits, but the promise of never, ever bumping into Pauline Hanson at Woolworths is also pretty alluring as well. So, where are we at with Woollies? Do they Buy or Sell? 

Adam Dawes: [00:12:55] So with the fall, it's definitely a buy. It's one that I've been picking up for clients. We've been selling, Wesfarmers to buy Woollies. We've been, picking up, and it's a good quality, stable business. Now, the reason why it's down here at the moment is, is that the government is looking at price fixing or price gouging. Yeah. You remember when we had Covid, everybody remembers when we had Covid, but then we had the supply chain issues where there was $10 heads of lettuce. Where it costs that much from debt to the farm to the supermarket. Now what happens is, is woollies then obviously as well as Coles as well as Metcash, which is IGA as well as Aldi, all kept their prices a little bit higher. Right? As those prices led, the heads of lettuce came down to now where it is at $1.50 or two bucks for a lettuce, right? They've all kept their prices up a little bit. And so the government's looking into whether they've been price gouging or they've been keeping or cost of living issues going forward. Yeah. So the reason why I like this is, is that that the government's talking about breaking the businesses up. They're never going to do that. They can't do that. There's only 2 or 3 operators in Australia Coles and yeah, yeah, IGA and Woollies and then Aldi. Aldi has about 20% market share at the moment. And Woolies and Coles pretty much of the the dominant forces in this. So they won't break it up the like for like sales on Woollies. Coles in most supermarkets is around 2 to 3% throughout Covid and it went up to 7 to 12%. But most margins are around 2 to 3%. So if it makes $100 or it you know it makes a yeah makes $100, they make $2 in profit. Right. So it's not a massively, massive business with massive margins going forward. However, they do hold and control a lot of what we buy and sell. So lamb goes higher, all these kinds of things. And that's hurting the people that are there with cost of living. So people are looking at different ways. So the reason why I like it is because I don't think the government is going to be able to do too much with it. There's all this talk about breaking it up that won't happen.

Adam: [00:14:53] It's good that we talk about it though, like it's good that the government's talking about it. 

Adam Dawes: [00:14:56] They do a lot of talking. 

Adam: [00:14:58] I always feel a little better if we're talking about even if we know it's a foregone conclusion, nothing will happen. That's right. I think it's important we talk about the headlines. 

Adam Dawes: [00:15:06] Yes. So yeah. So for me, I think this has been overdone on the downside. That's why, where it was comfortable to pick woollies up at these levels. And in fact, you could probably sell Coles to switch into Woollies. I think it's a better business. 

Adam: [00:15:19] Yep. All right. So it is a buy for Woolworths. 

Adam: [00:15:23] All right before we take a break. Pilbara minerals ASX place. You called it a buy at $3.58. Currently $3.77. Up 5.31%. You gave me this, as a new one for this time round. We did cover it last time. Adam, is it true that you're so talented that you make money without even remembering that you've made it? 

Adam Dawes: [00:15:45] It's like a double. Do you just throw something on it? And then this market's been really good to us over the last four, 4 or 5 months. In six months, it's been really, really good to us. And so you know you can't get. Yeah. And I think that's where a lot of people get worried. Or when you get complacent, then things happen or there's issues. So PLS is a lithium producer. They've got a lot of cash around $2.5 billion sitting on their, on their, on their cash side of things. But it's a fantastic business all the way around. The reason why I'm still happy to stay with Abi is because 20% of its stock is shorted. Now, shorting means that they sure does make money when stocks go down. Okay. But what happens is if the lithium price starts to level out, which it has, it's gone down about 85% in the last 12 months. So it's fallen all the way down. A lot of producers in the lithium space to stop producing at the moment. So in other words they're allowing the supply side to catch up. The demand is still there, but the supply side is starting to catch up. Once that supply side starts to catch up, the lithium price will start to move higher. Like with any business, any commodity, copper, iron ore, those kinds of things. If the commodity moves, the stock will follow. But the thing is with this one is with 20% of its market cap shorted in short, as hands, they want the stock to go down and they make money. However, if the lithium price starts to tick up and if if everything starts to happen, those shoulders have to cover. And that means they have to buy more stock to, to get rid of their short, which means there's going to be this artificial stimulus or push up in the share price as a short as cover. So that's the reason why it's still a buy. Because there's so it's a it's the most short of stock on the Australian Stock Exchange. And it's sitting there that's throwing everything at it. And they can't make it go down $3.80 where it is today somewhere around there. That is the reason why it's a buy. And you should do very, very well. And next year or so on the back of that, if those shorter start to cover, which they will have to sooner or later. 

Adam: [00:17:47] All right, I like it. It's a good one. That's a good one to finish on. We're going to take a break. Then we'll grab another S&pina colada. Hey, if you've got a stock that you want to hear about on the show, let me know. Use the contact form at Equitymates.com. Or you can leave a voice message and you might even hear yourself on the show. Yeah. Or flick me an email contact at Equitymates.com. We'll be back with more Buy or Sell right after this. Welcome back. You're listening to Buy or Sell. Coming to you from the no holds bar. My expert today is Adam Dawes, senior investment advisor at Shaw and Partners. We've covered your picks from last time. Now we're going to look at a few new ones, a few new hot takes, starting with Hello World Travel ASX HLO, currently trading at $2.89. These guys are got a few brands, including Magellan Travel and nothing inspires investor confidence like the Magellan name. So Dawsy Hello World Travel. Is it a Buy or Sell? 

Adam Dawes: [00:18:53] Where do I go from here? Yes, you're right. Magellan does inspire confidence. And, for something like Hello World. It's an interesting business because we talk a lot about post-Covid and travelling stocks. So travel stocks were definitely a benefactor of that post-Covid world. Hello World is one of those stocks that is doing quite well. It's a smaller mid-cap stock. Yeah. If you want to go into the big space, it's Flight centre that is already rallied or running. I don't think you need to be there, but Hello World does have that. We all talk about transactional value or total transactional value. And these guys are on the right side of that total transactional value. Because what's happening in the world at the moment, we've got the third, the third or third, you got third renters, you got a third the mortgage payers, and you got third, which is the baby boomers. And guess how much cash they've got at the moment. Truckload. And they're going, they're spending that and they're going overseas and they're really travelling. So they're going. 

Adam: [00:19:47] They don't know how to use the internet, so they have to go and travel. 

Adam Dawes: [00:19:51] Agent. Exactly right. So we really like that spice for that travel, that side of things with package holidays, those kinds of things. And I think Hello World is a very good buy. And so at Shaw and Partners we cover that stock and we're going to stay with the analysts on this one. So it's a buy 

Adam: [00:20:05] It is a buy. All right. Next up we're looking at Domino's Pizza Enterprises ASX DMP currently trading at $41.80. And a lot of people a lot of people might like to copy trade you Dawsy. But there's only one place I get my tips. The state of Alaska Revenue Department. And they've just sold 165 shares of Domino's Pizza. So is this a sell 165.

Adam Dawes: [00:20:29] So 165,000. Okay. Well yeah. Maybe you should follow what they do. So look, for me I think this is one there's some deep value in Domino's. And when we talk about value that means this is a joke. I can't find my cheese cross. 

Adam: [00:20:47] Yeah. Oh there we go. 

Adam Dawes: [00:20:48] Go that way. So there is a lot of value there. Domino's for many years has been a darling of the stock exchange and has done very, very well. I came on stock a while back because they used to have regions where in say in Sydney or Melbourne, you'd have a Domino's Pizza region where one pizza shop would sit there. What they did then is they divided that into two and put another Domino's Pizza in there. Right. And so it really cut back on overall profit, profitability for individual stores. They've branched out and into Japan, into Europe. They're doing lots to sort of make this thing work. I just think that there's value there. It resonates with a lot of people. They understand it. Maybe you don't like Domino's pizza, but I can tell you there's a lot of people out there. Cost of living crisis. $5. Get the kids fed, that kind of thing. Yeah. Works quite well. So I think there's a deep value there. I'm a bit scared when you come back to me in, eight months or eight years time and you go, well, that one wasn't a great call, but. 

Adam: [00:21:44] I think that this is why I mentioned it, why we, like we have done today, we'll just pick out the good ones and leave the others behind. 

Adam Dawes: [00:21:49] Done. So yeah, just be careful with Domino's. But I think it's got value there. I think you can't do two wrong down at this share price. I and some of my super fund are hoping for it to turn around. And I just think that cost of living crisis certainly will, allow it to, you know, do quite well. So. Yeah, it's a buy. It's a buy.

Adam: [00:22:10] All right. Now we're gonna look at South32 Limited ASX S32 currently trading at $3.19. And I've got a joke for you, Adam. What does a South 32 manganese bulk carrier ship and Prince Harry have in common? 

Adam Dawes: [00:22:29] Prince Harry? Redhead? No, I don't know. 

Adam: [00:22:33] No. They've both been ruined by Cyclone Meghan. 

Adam Dawes: [00:22:37] I love it. Did you pick that from Google? Did you? 

Adam: [00:22:39] Do you know I read that? Well, well done. I did my research on South32. I found out that they had a dock in Groot Island. Yes. Got ruined by a cyclone. Cyclone's name was Megan. I paste it all together, and I came up with that solid gold. 

Adam Dawes: [00:22:54] I'm gonna follow my investing tips from your jokes. It's gonna be fantastic. So South32 again. He's one of those ones that it's a resource company now. It was hived off from BHP. And the reason why it was called South32. There was 32 companies below the seven equator which turned into what is called now South32 from BHP. The reason why they got rid of it, they were looking to make sure that they had big core assets instead of lots of little assets. And that's what they did with this one manganese, nickel, this coal, all of those kinds of things within South32. We've been scratching our head for a good 8 to 12 months now. Why this stock hasn't started to rally, and only now is it starting to rally as we sort of go to where this thing is actually now, starting to rally a little bit on the back of potentially turning around for a lot of its commodities. It pays a decent dividend. Management are okay. There's some there's some issues there. But I'm really comfortable with it. And it is a good quality business for, for people. So some of the commodities like coal on the nose of it, not many people like them. But nickel and manganese are certainly for the energy transition side of things. And so I think South32 there's a lot of value there. It should do well over a medium term. And I think it's a buy. 

Adam: [00:24:15] It is a buy. All right. It's time for the last call here in the no holds bar. And we've got a two for one deal going. Which I love. It's happy hour here with a couple of speccys. We're going to start off with Cooper Metals Limited. ASX, CPM currently trading at $0.12. Cooper Metals off to a bad start. They spelt copper wrong. Where are we at with Cooper Metals? 

Adam Dawes: [00:24:42] All right, so this is a speculative one. This is the last call. So it's a two for one. So yeah. Another one coming. But this is a speculative side of things. And the whole idea of this is that it's trans. It's a copper play. So we like copper. We talked about it already. We like copper. The reason why I like this one it's in Mount Isar. So it's in Australia. So there's no geopolitical issues which is a lot of time with copper. There's those issues there. But the reason why we like it is that they found a hole or drilled a hole which was around 71m at 2.8% copper. Now 71m is massive. That's a long, long haul. And are you looking for copper exploration, guys? Anything over 1% copper is good. This is come in at 2.8% right. All right. Stock rallied from sort of $0.03 up to $0.30. They raised some more capital at $0.25 which was fine. But what happened from there is then they put in a couple more holes, directional holes in a scissor hole. So in other words, it goes across from where they found the 71m at a 2.8% copper and they found nothing. So the stock now at $0.12 is on its knees as far as that. They've got to find something. And the problem is the reason why is is still at $0.12. There's been lots of rain up in Mount Isar and I can't get across the river to gate drilling. So they had to suspend things. I own some stock in this one. So this is, we need to be careful. And this is not advice. Please seek professional advice. Absolutely do anything. But this one is going to be a company maker just on one whole. And if they can continue to drill out that copper plate in Mount Isar, it's going to be fantastic going forward. So Cooper Metals is a buy, speculative buy from me only because of that original hole. Now it's very concerning that they couldn't find anything on those last fall. 

Adam: [00:26:33] So very scientific. But it sounds a lot like they're just out in the desert just digging holes. Got, nothing here, nothing here. 

Adam Dawes: [00:26:40] Right. And not just digging holes. It's like down to the Raiders down hole kind of thing, you know? Little bit careful. Yeah, yeah. I and buyer beware on this one because it is a very very the management I really like I've got a lot of time for them. They are very good at what they are doing. They missed something in this last set of drill results. We've got more drill results coming out soon as I find or find where that vein is or find how that works. This thing is going to continue to keep going. It's a buy from a speculative beware though. All right. Careful on that one. 

Adam: [00:27:12] We'll do. All right. Let's wrap up with your second of the two for one deal. Arrow Minerals Limited, ASX AMD currently trading at $0.01 per my spreadsheet, but I think that's actually rounded up. What is it about half percent? 

Adam Dawes: [00:27:28] It's trading at 0.5 of a cent. 

Adam: [00:27:31] Point five of a cent. 

Adam Dawes: [00:27:31] Right. You wanted something speculative. 

Adam: [00:27:34] I love it, asx AMD if I bought AMD the chip maker at $0.01. I would probably not be here to be.

Adam Dawes: [00:27:43] You'll be sitting on a beach somewhere. So this is AMD asx. So this is Arrow Minerals. Okay. So just go with me on this one because it is, it is, it is a little bit long and drawn out, but it sort of makes sense. Sort of makes sense. The issue is. 

Adam: [00:27:59] It sounds speculative. 

Adam Dawes: [00:28:00] Yes. Definitely sound speculative. So first of all it's in West Africa in Guinea. Again. Right. If you type in Guinea and cuz they just finished a coup in September last year. Right. 

Adam: [00:28:10] So just write one up, just get a fresh one. Starting in June. 

Adam Dawes: [00:28:14] Be careful with that one. So West Africa, remember we talked about metals beating out Eiza and being in Australia. Yeah yeah that's geopolitically that's a tick. Where we are we don't really have any geo a lot of tension. The second thing is, is that they are an iron ore business. So they are looking for iron ore. But what they've done is, is that they're in the northern end of Simandou, which is basically a region in Guinea that Rio has got the bottom half. Simfu, which is a Chinese business, has got the top half and then AMD is just sitting right above it. Okay. Now, Rio Tinto has said that they're going to put $6.2 billion into the railroad network and into the iron ore that's going their Simfu, which is a Chinese consortium, is also going to be putting money towards it. And it's going to be a public rail network, public, not people, but for iron ore that will go 30km past AMD's allotment. Okay. So the first thing is when you're in the middle of nowhere, like in West Africa or in the middle of Australia, you might have the best amount of gold, copper or whatever. But if you can't get it out to the port to get it sold, yep, you're in a lot of trouble. So all of a sudden, again, we tick off that there's infrastructure going through there. The second thing is, is that Rio Tinto wouldn't spend $6.2 billion on this if they didn't think that there was, quite good. Now Rio as well as Thimphu, that's a Chinese consortium, have been pulling out iron ore grades of over 61 or 62%. Now BHP got iron ore grades of 60, 61%. So in other words, it's the highest iron ore grade in the world. But that would be pulling out 80 million tonnes by 2027. So we're two years away from production. That's for the two bottom guys. Arrow is just drilling out things at the moment. Market cap of arrow is about $50 million. 

Adam: [00:30:05] What is BHP pulling out in terms of tonnes? 

Adam Dawes: [00:30:08] Just about 220 million tonnes. For skew we'll do about 188 million tonnes and Rio probably do around about 200 million tonnes a year. Okay. So 60 million tonnes isn't a lot. Yeah, yeah. But it does crimp on because China is in the middle of all of this will be getting their iron ore from there but not from Australia. Hence why I said you got to be a little bit cautious on iron ore going forward because there some other projects around the world, they're going to be taking some of that Ion Ore away. So from there, you've got a location, which is good. We've got rail access network was good. The market caps about $50 million now compared to that to BHP or Rio's. Billions of dollars mark. It's a small minnow. But the issue is that, there's a lot of shares on issue. There's a lot of paper on the issue. There's around about 9 billion shares on issue.

Adam: [00:30:56] 9 billion. 

Adam Dawes: [00:30:58] Again big where this is very speculative. All right. So there's 9 billion shares. So there's a lot of stuff that has to go through for it to continue to go higher. So it's not about the the amount of shares that are an issue because there's a lot they'll do a consolidation for every 100 shares you get and get one share. So they'll consolidate that over time. But that's going to happen. The next thing is, is it.

Adam: [00:31:19] Sounds like a cryptocurrency airdrop. 

Adam Dawes: [00:31:21] That's what it does doesn't it? The next thing is, is that it comes from David Flanagan. David Flanagan has just started with them. He was the ex director of Atlas Iron. And again, Atlas Iron was going from a minnow sold out to Gina Rinehart about ten years ago in iron ore IV and five years ago and iron ore. And he's done it very well. So management again is very, very good. Now, I'm a long winded way of saying this is a speculative one. They'll start drilling up until 2027 hopefully. Then somebody like cement in Simfu or Rio might come in and say, okay, you've approved this ground, we're going to take you out.That's the whole idea. But be careful with this one, people, because there's a lot of shares on issue management. It's in a geopolitical issue area that is not that great. And it's a very speculative iron ore investment.

Adam: [00:32:09] All right I love it I love hearing about this. Well it's one of the most fascinating parts about this. This gig is hearing these kinds of these kinds of picks. I love it. And that does it for today. Dawsy, thank you so much for coming in. Where can people find you if they like to follow your work? 

Adam Dawes: [00:32:24] Yeah. So, you can just search my, Adam Dawes, search my name. Work for Shaw and Partners. Typing my name into Google, you'll find my address as well as phone number. Give me a call on mobile and be happy to have a chat with anybody.

Adam: [00:32:37] Excellent. All right, and you can continue the journey on the Equity Mates website. There's plenty of resources there. You will find the Buy or Sell tracker, along with the Find a Company page where you can get more info on each of the companies we've talked about today. Thank you so much for joining us out there. Don't forget you can find us on YouTube as well now. I hope you'll join me next time when we jump back into the no Holds barred, for more Buy or Sell. Until then, it's bye for now.