Bonus: Ed Kavalee on the business of the Qatar World Cup (and his conspiracy on what will happen next)

Bryce: [00:00:14] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast that follows our journey of investing, whether you're an absolute beginner or approaching Warren Buffett status. Our aim is to help break down your barriers from beginning to end. My name is Bryce and as always, I'm joined by the equity buddy Ren. How are you? 

Alec: [00:00:29] I'm very good, Bryce. I am excited for this episode. Always excited, but particularly excited today. We may not be the biggest football fans, but every four years the World Cup comes along for those two weeks. We certainly are.

Bryce: [00:00:43] That's how an Aussie World Cup kicked off at 3 a.m. this morning. 

Alec: [00:00:47] Yes, we're recording it beforehand. But you're releasing it almost alongside the World Cup. Yes. 

Bryce: [00:00:53] Yeah. So plenty of content. But releasing this bonus episode because we have been working on a side project with our could mate editor cavalry. 

Alec: [00:01:01] And I think we can call in now. Good mate. 

Bryce: [00:01:04] Yes, we are. He is a soccer fanatic. Football fanatic? 

Alec: [00:01:08] Yeah. For people who aren't familiar with Ed Cavalry, he is probably one of the most recognised football commentators who didn't play the game. Yes, well, play the game professionally. Yes. Santo, Sam and Ed, people have probably heard about or watched or listened to. And then he is also one third of the Today FM breakfast show. He's at an Aaron where with radio royalty. Yeah, we started out our podcasting roots. 

Bryce: [00:01:34] Very fortunate, too, to be able to have sat down with Ed. Now there's a lot of content coming out around the Guitar World Cup and Netflix have just released a doco on FIFA and all the politics around that. And so we wanted to do an episode on the business of the World Cup. Overnight, business news showed the dive. However, when sitting down with Ed to get his thoughts on what's happened, it turned out to be a fully fledged 40 minute episode. 

Alec: [00:02:00] Yeah, we try to stick to 15 minutes with the dive. 20 is like the hard cut off, but this interview was about 40 minutes. But we wanted to release it because it was really interesting, number one. And a lot of fun. Number two, yeah. Ed has a lot of thoughts. I think we start there, but I think the really interesting thing is you go down rabbit holes and you Google as you listen to this, you'll be Googling some things and there is a lot there is a lot there. And Ed obviously has kept his finger on the pulse big time, keeps his eye on what's happening with FIFA big time. And then he has, shall we say, some theories about what will happen next. 

Bryce: [00:02:38] Yes, a few predictions to close out the episode. I found it incredibly fascinating, a lot of ground covered. And he may not agree with it all, but very, very interesting nonetheless. And as you said, Ren, when you do go down the rabbit holes online and start Googling and watching associated tacos, hey, that's a pretty compelling picture. 

Alec: [00:02:58] So and just one note, something that he said to me after we finished recording, but it's worth just putting front of mind for people when he starts talking about his theories about what could happen in this World Cup, he talks about VR, which is like the video referees and how they review plays. And he mentions in the interview the New Zealand v Costa Rica video. Now you can watch that on YouTube and see how New Zealand got a goal overturned that would have had them qualifying for this World Cup by a questionable, controversial VAR decision. But it also mentioned that if you want to see perhaps a little bit of home country bias in refereeing. He mentioned the 2002 refereeing at the South Korea World Cup and apparently there's a montage on YouTube. I haven't watched it yet, but I just wanted to get that on. Mike So when people are listening to the VR section, they can go and look that up as well. I don't know if people agree or not. I am not a football fan. That is for you to make your own decisions. But Ed, thank you for jumping on and and sharing your view with us. 

Bryce: [00:04:05] Yes, massive. Thanks. Well, let's leave it there. A bit of a cliff-hanger to leave. People wondering what is going to come. So without further ado, here is Ed and Ren discussing the Qatar, FIFA World Cup. 

Alec: [00:04:15] The. Business of Qatar. Ed Kavalee, thanks for joining me. 

Ed: [00:04:19] Yeah, great to be here, bro. But listen, man, this 15 minute limit is just nothing. It's just nothing like that, which is it's just not going to happen. We need extra time. We need injury time. This is the biggest business slash sporting event in the world. It needs it because there's a lot of take. You send me questions. Yeah. And oh, man, we got two answers we got to answer. 

Alec: [00:04:43] Okay. All right. Well, look, if you can give us answers, we'll give you extra time. That's that's the deal. But let's start here and we'll see where it goes. Qatar is reportedly spending 220 billion USD on this World Cup compared to 16 billion from Russia in 2018, 20 billion from Brazil in 2014. We want to start here. We are a business podcast and we couldn't really get our heads around the business rationale for a ten X increase in spending, so why spend so much? 

Ed: [00:05:17] So that's probably conservative as well. So that's probably a conservative estimate. So for them, it's about and I've said this a number of times, it's about nation building. We're going to probably get on to sports watching later. I am less concerned about that. So the key moment, one of the key moments is to go back to 2005 when they opened the Inspire Academy, which quote from their website. So I'm sure I'm being tracked and have an ambitious target by 2020. Two years ago I needed to update the website to be recognised as the world's leading sports academy. Development of youth athletes opened in 2005, and guess who they had at the opening? It wasn't like two people from Love Islands. They had Pele and Maradona. Those were the two people who opened this thing. So the eyebrows that you're raising, those are the eyebrows that they want to keep raised up. Now we're going to get to this and why it's important because it's a quiz question. Who is the current global head of the Inspire Academy Sports Division? Because there's other divisions. But who is the sports head? 

Alec: [00:06:15] Well, and you're not the only one that's done their research. And by research, I mean spoken to you beforehand. I believe it's Tim Cahill. Oh. 

Ed: [00:06:22] Isn't that interesting? So that plays a part to what we're going to get to when it's tinfoil at that time. But there he is, Mr. Tim Cahill, and God bless him, as he said himself, a kid who left school at 16 from Western Sydney now running this multi-billion dollar Sports Inspire Academy. So that's partly why they're spending that money. But another part of why they're spending that money, as we know, is that it's all these Gulf countries not wanting to have to rely on fossil fuels when the Guardian finally cancels them. And then secondly, but they also need, quite literally other things to do, which they've said they want this to be the place. So they've got this, quote, global scouting network that they keep speaking about. So, you know, Tim Cahill mentioned in interviews that now that the Qatari javelin showers have never been better, well, who gives a shit? But the point is, it's just to be able to continuously bombard the world with press releases about progress and positivity coming out of guitar and sports. The easiest way to do it because it's the easiest thing to quantify. Yeah. 

Alec: [00:07:23] And I think that that gets into this idea of sports washing. I guess we are hearing it in the sense of like covering up the human rights atrocities potentially, but also I guess sports washing. Yeah, as you said, it can be used as a proxy for progress in nation building. So help us out, get our heads around sports washing. And is it worth $220 Billion? 

Ed: [00:07:46] Well, it depends who you ask, because this is not new at all. And it's certainly not new for the World Cup. Mussolini did this in 1934 when he did not like football Mussolini, but he liked the idea that he could look good with football. So in 1934 for that World Cup, he printed tickets on the finest of paper, the best pipe you've ever seen in your life. So the people had something to go and say to the rest of the world in the right place. Are you sure about that? A bit much known. I looked at these tickets, I went to the World Cup and they also paid people to go, so they paid for fans to go to this World Cup. And what did we see three days before the World Cup? What did we just find out that they had been caught, Qatar using, we think, expats or foreign workers to pay them as being fake fans for teams that were lining up. So they did Brazil, right? They did a video on TikTok and Brazil of all these Brazilian fans that had rocked up early. Okay, fine. And then they wanted to say, okay, now look at all these English fans that have rocked up and are also having a parade. The problem that they had was that they're using the same instruments. So that was the same. And the last time I checked, Brazilian fans and English fans weren't in an instrument exchange programme. And the other reason they got caught is no one's going to ever believe that there are other English fans. Everyone hates England. That's why they would never pick the one country that basically everyone in the world hates and wants to lose at the World Cup. So any other place they could have picked Iran and people would be like, Yeah, that kind of makes it into England. Forget it. And they also were paying. So the Dutch have been really critical and they still are. The coach is like, this is stupid. Why are we here? We'll get to that later. So that's one of the first things Qatar did, is they made an approach that Dutch influences to go to Qatar and be paid and be paid to do positive posts about Qatar. So they go to whoever's criticising them and they find a way to go. What they don't like is what this part of them does. So that sort of evens it out somehow. And the irony of that is, of course, you find influences to do stories about the World Cup, influences who will then be arrested for taking a photo in a bikini in public and therefore undoing all of your good work. 

Alec: [00:09:55] Yeah, it is confusing, and I guess it's also confusing because for every Dutch influencer that you fly over, the world's media is turning their attention to Qatar. And we're speaking about it here on a business podcast. If you didn't have the World Cup, the focus wouldn't be on all of the issues. But instead that now got the world's attention on them and they're having to pay these influencers. It feels like they're not so much sports washing as sports spotlighting. And then you add to that, the players themselves are revolting. And you know, Denmark is wearing a protest kit. Australia's players released a critical video. Has this backfired? 

Ed: [00:10:35] Look, it depends. Once again, it depends on who you are and who you're answering to. So one thing that we've got to make very, very clear at this point, and we will get to the results on the pitch in a moment, because that's where all these chickens are going to come home to roost. And I've got very strong conspiracy theories about these. But the other thing that's happened is Qatar's attitude has changed. They have finished apologising. So that has been a big, you know, with the World Cups for everybody. It's this, it's that. And they just now, you know what? We paid for this. And you can actually excuse my language. You can cross because the other day you ride the World Cups right around the World Cups for everyone, you know. Okay. Well, it's for everyone except the following groups of people. And there was a former Atari national player on German TV the other day who forgot the script. He was on TV and he was asked about the LGBTQ plus, you know, people who want to go and want to support it. And he just had it and he called being gay a damage in the mind. And that was every now and again it just dropped a little the perfect sports horse, whatever you want to call it. And yes. And two days ago, the Danish of course, the Danish were filming and just blokes tried to stop me for no reason. And then they say we don't need a permit. Yes, we've got one. It was like Ned Flanders, you know, when Homer starts the lynch mob in Springfield and no burning leaves without a permit, I go one too late. And by then his house was already on fire because they keep the Leafs. It was that exact moment. And so they just now the rubber is hitting the road and you can feel them actually now going, why are we getting why are we apologising? What are we doing? We pay for this shit. We got it through the, you know, the FIFA process, which I'd love to cover at some point how they got this bid and why that and how that plays into where we are now and how that's going to play out on the pitch. Because this is not some people aren't an outlier. It's a disgrace. You know, I'm going to say that I always like to use how do you know something? It's not. 

Alec: [00:12:32] True how. 

Ed: [00:12:33] I saw it in the Netflix documentary. Right. They are over a million when it comes to facts in documentaries. Right. They're always the main opinion. They always have Netflix, always have a reason to suddenly come up with some documentary. They've made up half the quotes or it's basically all mostly bullshit. So they've got this faithful one where they say they go back through the bidding process. Now, this is true when Qatar got the World Cup during that time, 22 of the 22 that voted 16 of those ExCo members in FIFA, it's only 22 people who decide it have either been banned, accused or convicted for criminal corruptions, involved in FBI cases or accused of ethical violations, but not been convicted. Two of them were already off the voting panel because they'd be done in a newspaper sting trying to sell their votes. So as recently as 2020, the FBI is still coming after them. It is absolutely ridiculous. I mean, this is what the traitors on Channel ten thought it was going to be. Just film FIFA. You want to try this, just film the thing for that. But it's not a shock. It was the logical extension of a process that they had designed. So when the former FIFA president of the demonic Swiss know, Joseph Blatter, he's now trying to blame Michel Platini and he's saying it's all Platini is at fault. He was the head of UEFA Europe at the time. He switched. I wanted it to be for America. Nothing to do with me, says the bloke that ran it for 30 years. And whatever we can get, that's a topic for another day. But I've got a little grab which I want to play because the legend is Tarik Panja, the journalist. He was on Pod Save the World, which has done a good job recently, but followed it to pay and then put his name into search. The guys. Slapstick genius, and he literally is the only human being that wilfully goes to all of these Congresses as a journalist and sits there and listens to their bullshit. The man deserves a Nobel prise just for that. So this is him talking about a dinner that took place in Paris where Michel Platini, who controls basically five votes on that panel, five out of 22 blokes are being kicked out. Now it's five out of 20. We're looking good here. Let's get them. So. So this is him. Sarkozy. The president invites him over for dinner. No, no. You know, it's probably normally a Swedish party, but he goes over and he says, righto and. Oh, hello. Have you met my friend, the crown prince of Qatar? And have you met this bloke who's part of this bid that they've got for the World Cup? It's just so weird that you two are both here right now. Just to give us an idea of the stakes that are involved when it comes to the World Cup. This has to be put into context. This is what took place at the dinner, according to Tarik. Have a listen to the states that are being used for the World Cup. 

Alec: [00:15:20] There was a famous dinner at the Elysee Palace, the home of the French president at the time, Nicolas Sarkozy. The other dinner was the then crown prince and current emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim. Michel Platini, another French great footballer, the head of European football, Nicolas Sarkozy. And I believe the French sports minister was there. That dinner had huge implications for the world of football and for the 2022 World Cup. Here is why. Afterwards, Qatar places in order for French jets worth billions of dollars and Platini has his head turned. Nicolas Sarkozy says for France, the World Cup, your vote should go to Qatar. And Michel Platini, to his credit, is one of these few.

Ed: [00:16:10] Voters who at least. 

Alec: [00:16:11] Tells everyone publicly who he voted for in that secret vote. He says he voted for Qatar, though he says he would have done it anyway. Hmm. I'm not so sure about that. Right. Okay. 

Ed: [00:16:27] Okay. So this is why it's upsetting. Australia bought French submarines that they didn't even have to build. We didn't get any votes. We welcome the menu into our hearts. We didn't get any votes. 

Alec: [00:16:42] I guess my question just keeps going back to why. So, you know, Qatar is spending billions on French jets. You know, the bidding process are to cope with Russia, isn't it? Russia bid for 2018, Qatar bid for 2022. And there was a lot going on there. Like it is a lot of effort, it is a lot of alleged corruption. And then it's a lot of. 

Ed: [00:17:01] Oh, no, I don't go with corruption. So that's the other thing I'm tired of. That being said, this is the logical extension of a process that had already been started. So Australia paid $40 million or $25 million to remember how much it was public money to bid for this same World Cup. Let's not forget that the big issue that England had when they lost to Qatar was that they didn't do the right bribes. So I spoke to a former executive of the Australian bid who told me something incredible. She said they were at Sydney Airport when they had the FIFA Congress here and one of the big bosses who's in this Netflix documentary. But he's not a bad guy because he's in a t- shirt, so he's cool now. So they're at the airport with all of the Aussies, the bid. Right. And this bloke walks past like, Hey, you guys had someone tell you your presentation was amazing? They're like, Really? Thank you so much. I think it's a shame you can't have it. Sorry. What? Here's what you know. You've got two Sydney airports, got a2am curfew and the FIFA members and the bigwigs and all of the obviously the VIPs, the VIPs are on a different time zone. So they won't be able to fly in and out. But anyway, for them and I walk off and everyone ignores it. And this woman, this Bonita is and she goes. Sorry, did anyone else see that? Like what? No. That just tells us that there's no way we're getting this because of this. So we should stop spending money, and they'll just look at it and they go, What are you talking about? We can still win. And of course, we got one, but even then, that was a stretch. So it's very important to understand that this is not corruption. It is corruption. But corrupt implies an honest system being corrupted. This has never been an honest system bankrupted, and it never will be. And that is why I don't. I hate it when people bang on about corruption. 

Alec: [00:18:55] Well, let's say billions of dollars of jets are a lot of bribes, alleged bribes, and then hundreds of billions of dollars worth of spending on infrastructure. I saw a post on Instagram today that was equating Qatar to the Fyre Festival based on some of the accommodation and stuff like that. It feels like a lot for a moment where the whole world will be looking at Qatar, many with critical eyes. So how do you explain such an effort and such a spend from Qatar? 

Ed: [00:19:25] See, they're playing on levels that you and I don't understand. So the Jets, all of it. The short answer is don't know. Long answer is we'll find out, but it's going to take a while. So we actually don't know why they are. I can listen to Tim Cahill forever and not hear why they've done it. I can listen to the emir forever and not hear why they'd actually done it. We don't know why they've done it. It's not a Bond film. They don't stroke a cat and tell us at the one hour, 45 minute mark, we give a short answer. Don't know, but we know what they're telling us. But why would we believe that one? I don't believe anything else that's been said. So no one knows yet. But here's something I want to throw in the mix. Did you know that Saudi Arabia has a beating for 2030? 

Alec: [00:20:07] It doesn't doesn't surprise me. I just bought an English Premier League football team.

Ed: [00:20:11] Well, they bought Newcastle. And why did the other team go? I know we're getting off topic, but why don't the other English teams like the fact that the Saudi Arabians have bought in and now even the Americans, the Liverpool owners are starting to sell out? Because what do they know that we don't? 

Alec: [00:20:26] I'm sure plenty. But what in particular? 

Ed: [00:20:30] Exactly. But they also know that these blokes and their old blokes will not stop until they get what it is that they think they want. And it's not javelin results and it's not. Is in Qatar a nice place. They could already have that. They've got the airline that sponsors everything under the sun. They've got all of that already. So we're not going to know. And that's why I'm keen for the financial people of the world. That's the pages I need to read because that's where you'll find out. 

Alec: [00:20:54] Well, and while we wait and say, I want to turn to some of the other stakeholders involved in the World Cup, in particular, the companies that are sponsoring the sport. And then I want to talk to you about what happens on the pitch. But before then, a quick break to hear from our sponsors. All right, Ed, well, before the break, we spoke about doing. 

Ed: [00:21:12] I get free? Do I get free things from those sponsors? 

Alec: [00:21:15] From our sponsors? We barely get free things from those sponsors. I'll send you some equity notes merch. That's the best. 

Ed: [00:21:29] The worst of this. Yes. 

Alec: [00:21:31] Something like this isn't commercial radio. You know. 

Ed: [00:21:35] You're right. I haven't mentioned it here in once. 

Alec: [00:21:38] Nothing. But speaking of our sponsors, football in general has some big companies that seem to sponsor everything. And, you know, like Nike and Adidas top the list. But there's a number. There's the makers of the world, the Coke of the world. They seem to always throw money at sports and football in particular. How have they responded to everything that's going on in Qatar and especially, you know, the recent player revolts?

Ed: [00:22:03] Great question. Here is the point. We find ourselves. FIFA for the first time is facing a future where it's not guaranteed that their revenue increases. 95% of FIFA's revenue comes from the World Cup. In the four year cycle it generates 95% of their revenue. They basically live on tuna and beans for three years and they have to put all these tournaments they don't want to put on in order to pretend that they care about football so that they can get to this point. So the Russia one in Russia generated $4.8 billion. Now, I don't know about you, and I know that that's enough for a one bedroom apartment in Sydney, but I think before even finding it hard to live on $4.8 Billion for four years since 1950, the revenue has just gone up and up and up. And here is one of the great ironies of this. Sepp Blatter is a huge part of how that happened. He came from marketing. He was instrumental in helping them get to this point where they are now but just released and this was a little pills in the food. You guys are experts at this digging through the information to find a beat that means something. I read this the other day. Shares in ITV fell recently the British Broadcasting and the large broadcasting entity on a lukewarm revenue boost from airing the World Cup. That is a phrase no one would ever have thought that they would be uttering. This has been a rocket to the moon since the dawn of sponsorship in the World Cup with Coca-Cola and Adidas. And so that's why this World Cup is so important to the sponsors. But also it honestly feels as though they're saying to them, just get through this one. The next one's in America, the next one's in Mexico, the next one is in Canada. And that is where they're trying to get to this Netflix documentary. I believe we show that they can put a line under FIFA so that they can come back with the new FIFA bid on some of the rights to have games for the next one. And they can say we were part of putting that old awful mob to bed. Look how bad they were. Thank goodness we've got this new crew in charge and they're doing a great job, by the way. We've actually got some games that's weird. So that to me seems as though that's exactly what's going on here. Now, one in particular, Qatar committed a FIFA rights atrocity, which is much more serious than a human rights atrocity. Two days before the tournament, my homeboy Tarik Panja put on the Internet a video of the official beer sponsor, Budweiser, who paid $112 million to sponsor the World Cup. There'll be a tent being moved because it was too visible. 

Alec: [00:24:40] By Qatari authorities. 

Ed: [00:24:42] Yes, that, my friend, is the biggest crime that they have in this world that I know that sounds ridiculous. 

Alec: [00:24:50] But yes. 

Ed: [00:24:52] That is the biggest crime that Qatar has committed. That is when Qatar said, you know what, we still run this joint. We've had enough of you telling us what to do. And that is the moment where FIFA goes, okay, great, no problem. Let's get out of here and never speak of this joint again. And also then they released the prices, £12 for a beer, £12 for a beer. And then they announced they're going to have drunk tanks where if you seem to be intoxicated or if they think you're intoxicated, they're going to throw you in these drunk tanks. The only thing is that'll be the funnest place to be for the World Cup and B, it might be the only way to get you accommodation. You just have to sleep on the ground. So that's going to be the place to be. 

Alec: [00:25:39] Yeah. I don't know if Qatari drunk tanks are going to be my number one preference for places to be. But I might. I'll let you go ahead and tell me how it is. 

Ed: [00:25:48] But you see what I mean? That's you know, that is just a big no no. When that train was getting carried, I was like, there it is. That is going to be the image that is going to keep these people up at night. 

Alec: [00:26:01] So if the sponsors just sort of, you know, I guess not holding their nose, but they're just getting through it. They say the United States, 2026 on the horizon and now FIFA are starting to feel that way. I mean, surely that doesn't bode well for Saudi Arabia 2030. But let's put a pin in that. Let's focus on Qatar, because we haven't even spoken about what's going to happen on the pitch yet. 

Ed: [00:26:25] I'm so excited about this. 

Alec: [00:26:27] I get that sense. I get that sense. I'm not even going to ask you a question. I'm just going to let you go. What? Well, what happens? 

Ed: [00:26:33] Okay. I have a question for you. Who is going to win the World Cup? 

Alec: [00:26:38] Well, Brazil are the favourites. We saw. 

Ed: [00:26:41] Oh, we could do this for 32 teams, but that is not what I asked. 

Alec: [00:26:45] Who's going to win the World Cup?

Ed: [00:26:46] Yes. 

Alec: [00:26:47] Well, I'm going to say Brazil. 

Ed: [00:26:48] The answer, my friend. The answer, my friend. Has to be FIFA. So FIFA has to play two games here. They have to be seen to say thank you very much to Qatar in case they need to begin in the future. And they also have to be seen to say, but we promise we'll never do that again. And Qatar needs an image that they can sell on their Aspire Academy. They've got the quote from Pele. Now they need something to go forever until the end of time. So let me put it to you this. Do you honestly think that FIFA in Qatar wants Harry Kane from England holding up the World Cup with his rainbow armband on? 

Alec: [00:27:27] I imagine Qatar doesn't. 

Ed: [00:27:28] That ain't going to happen, my friend. That is simply not going to happen. And here's where I'll step through exactly what's going to happen. 

Alec: [00:27:35] Please, sir. 

Ed: [00:27:36] You've got to go to club football quickly. Paris Saint-Germain is owned by Guitar Messi, Mbappe and Neymar play there. Now I subscribe to be in sports, so I want to know what the official broadcaster in Qatar is trying to sell to me. And then it's like there's only three people playing. It's Messi versus Imbaba. Is. That is the only thing that they care about. So Messi standing on the pitch in Paris, holding that World Cup trophy aloft to the adoring PSG, smashed Atari fans as he finished his last World Cup. He has stated this, his last World Cup. He also said last summer he wanted to go back to Barcelona and then for the weirdest reason, he changed his mind and says he's never been happier than he is at PSG. Neymar put in a transfer request. Neymar said this project is not going anywhere. This is a joke. Then no moment. Quiet. And now Neymar can't do anything except talk about how much he loves PSG and how much he loves the project. The best one though is Mbappé. So in size, this giant new contract to keep him away from Real Madrid until that's just after the World Cup, they pay him €90 million a year. Then a story comes out that he didn't believe in the coach, he didn't believe in the project and that he wanted to leave. The whole thing blows up. It blows right up. You know what his excuse was? That wasn't me who said that? That was my entourage. Now, I love the use of the word entourage, actually, in French, he said. That was my entourage. They did it while I was having a nap, while I was having a nap. So in order for that to be true, while Mbappé is having a nap, his entourage, who like you like the whatever, the French version of Turtle and A and Johnny Drama. Their big plan is to go out and lose €90 million a year for their best friend. That's their plan. While he's asleep, might sit down and play FIFA boys and shut the hell up. So we need to move on quickly right now. Let's get to what's being said now. This is the key bit. So we've got three countries. France, Brazil, Argentina. We also have to throw into the mix Ronaldo blowing it up at Manchester United, the symbol of American ownership, the symbol of uncaring ownership, the Glazers. My theory is that he may well rock up in a PSG uniform now if he rocks up in a PSG uniform and has already agreed to that in some way, that you can put Portugal down for a semi and you can possibly put Portugal down for a Messi versus right now in the final. 

Alec: [00:30:06] JS That would be big. 

Ed: [00:30:08] See, see what you did there. Now you're doing what Qatar wants you to do. Thinking big. You're starting to think the way that they want you to think. Go back to what they did when they opened their academy. Who was there? Maradona. Pele. That is the business that they're in the biggest names of all time. 

Alec: [00:30:25] So I'm almost scared to ask this question, but we have to ask it. There is a key assumption in all of that, which is that the Qataris can control what happens on the pitch. 

Ed: [00:30:35] No, FIFA has already told us that they're going to control what's happening on the pitch because they're going to use VAR. And if you say that I'm crazy, did you watch I forced you to watch New Zealand get knocked out by Costa Rica. Did you watch that video? 

Alec: [00:30:49] I did watch it. Tough to explain. Well, tough to show on a podcast. But so maybe just quickly explain what we saw.

Ed: [00:30:56] The way that they're going to fix the goals and the way that they're going to make sure that Denmark get zero goals and Australia get zero goals is by using this thing called phases of play video assistant referee, which is how they rule out goals with replays, what they're going to do. And it's what happened to New Zealand in their qualifier against Costa Rica because the next World Cup is going to North America and Canada. But just in revenue on television alone for the Americas is a little bit over $1,000,000,000, almost one and a half billion dollars. And they couldn't have Australia. And New Zealand in the World Cup because SBS just doesn't have that type of money and neither does TVNZ. So I'm afraid it's going to be a sheepdog trial for them. However, what they do is go in. They decide whether or not they want it to be a goal. And if they don't like the goal, they keep rolling the tape back in phases of play until they find something they don't like. And they put that on the screen and they cut out the rest. And then that's how they disallow the goal. And the second part of it is that the board has these ads that says been in this up to their next since the start. Right. Don't even Google them, you think. But do you think working with Khanya, it's bad. That is the tip of the iceberg. So they have said they put technology in the ball so that the ball can tell when they're offside. The reason that they're doing that is so they don't even have to use footage of players. They can just use avatars that they've built. So when you look at them, the two players are animated. They're not even the actual players, and they can move that animation wherever they want. Sometimes they'll put the two players, the two male players, like crossing each other, which is as close as two men are allowed to getting to top. And that is how they're going to do it. That is exactly it. So again, it's phases of play and it's VR and that is how they can get any goal they want and they can rule out any goal they want and offside. If I think it's getting too soft with phases of play, they can use offside any way they want. 

Alec: [00:32:49] Right? I mean I mean, look, I've got to have questions for you. You could just compare it to the original footage, the cartoon to the original footage. 

Ed: [00:32:59] Which angle? 

Alec: [00:33:00] I don't know. You've obviously thought about this more than I think. All right, so.

Ed: [00:33:04] Well, I don't need to think about it because it happens in New Zealand, so I don't need to think about it because I've seen it happen. They've already started doing it. So once they start doing it and that's why they use these typical test events and these little bits and pieces. You've got to watch those. You've got to watch the friendlies, you've got to watch the things. And what was the first announcement they made for no reason about three months ago? No reason for no reason. They made the announcement. 

Alec: [00:33:26] No English VR officials allowed in Qatar. 

Ed: [00:33:31] Isn't that the funniest? Isn't that the funniest thing? So the biggest league in the world where they use VR probably now more than any other league for some reason. FIFA comes out and says, The one thing we don't need is your help. Why do that? Why would you need to do that? 

Alec: [00:33:52] Yeah, well. 

Ed: [00:33:53] You have. You have a basketball World Cup. And, you know, the one thing we don't want is NBA referees, because they don't know. They don't know what basketball is. It's not suspicious. It's true to form. And that's why I said let's get to the Socceroos. 

Alec: [00:34:06] Okay?

Ed: [00:34:07] I love the Socceroos. That video that they did about workers rights. They are principled human beings. I like these guys and I applaud them. But they may as well not be there. 

Alec: [00:34:19] Because of the video that you're in now. 

Ed: [00:34:22] We were on thin ice. Denmark with their protest kids. How funny. A demo. I'm going to wear a protest kit. FIFA said you're not allowed. Okay, well, then we're going to wear it on our training shirt. Oh, pretty big statement. Denmark. Who? See who? Who's going to see the Denmark training shirt? Sorry, no one is the answer there so they can get lost. Tunisia hasn't said a word. And now this is the bit where you've got to understand that when FIFA tells you something, it's about who listens. So FIFA came out just before the tournament and they said, quote, It was time to focus on football. This is not the place for politics and for anything else along that of that nature. So then you wait. Who is the first group to come out and say we couldn't agree more? Brazil. They have got the memo. Who is the second group to come out and say we couldn't agree more? 

Alec: [00:35:14] Well, based on your theory about who makes it, I'm going to say Argentina.

Ed: [00:35:17] They don't need to because they got messy. France. Not only did they come out and say, I couldn't agree more, but in the same press conference Captain Hugo Lloris just says as an aside. And by the way, I don't think the rainbow armbands for me. I'm just. I think that's for me. You go. Brilliant. If your goal is to win the tournament, you give yourself every chance.

Alec: [00:35:37] Okay, so you're predicting if I. If I can just compile what you think. You think France and Tunisia make it out of Australia's group because Australia and Denmark protest. 

Ed: [00:35:48] Unless it gets to SAS, unless it gets to SAS and they let the Danes through and then they get worked in the round of 16. If every if the other games are really SAS, then they might let them have a little go. But yeah, for the most part. 

Alec: [00:36:01] And then Brazil and Argentina most likely to mate in a final. They are on the same side of the draw. I think so. One of them. No. 

Ed: [00:36:09] No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Argentina, Brazil, Neymar. Danny Stache. It's either Argentina. And then on the other side of France or Portugal, depending on what Mackay's attitude to Qatar is when he gets there. 

Alec: [00:36:24] Right. 

Ed: [00:36:24] Well, now, would you want to know one thing? 

Alec: [00:36:27] I was just going to say, if people are pulling out their Sportsbet app, I'm putting on the Ed Kavli multi gamble responsibly. But what's the one thing that could change it? 

Ed: [00:36:36] Messi signed a deal at the end of last year to be a tourism ambassador for Saudi Arabia. Okay. So the mortal enemy of Qatar until recently. Depends on how they take that. If they take that to be too much of an insult there? Mr. MURPHY I'm afraid it's not going to happen this time. But if not. 

Alec: [00:36:56] He's got a lot of lies in this ad. What is this ? I know. 

Ed: [00:37:04] That. I know. I know it's annoying, but it is really painfully simple. Ready? 

Alec: [00:37:08] Yep. 

Ed: [00:37:08] He's what you're looking for. Everybody who's talking shit about guitar. Pack your bags. Who's talking shit about FIFA? You can pack your bags, too. You ain't seen nothing. You're looking good. Who ain't saying nothing and has a huge global star that looks good holding the trophy in the top. You got a chance? 

Alec: [00:37:27] Great. I can't wait for Canada to win the World Cup. 

Ed: [00:37:30] But I'm glad that you're going to do it. Just like me to win. I'm going to do it. Let's do it properly. Get out of the group and get out of the group. 

Alec: [00:37:37] Look, if Qatar wins the World Cup, I will say I 100% believe everything you've just told me. We normally go for 15 minutes. We've almost gone for 40. I'll just. Any other thoughts on the World Cup in Qatar? Any other teams we should be watching or anything else you think might happen over the next couple of weeks?

Ed: [00:37:58] Their attitude to Africa will be very interesting because part of this whole thing is that they need to say that they're trying to help Africa expand and that they're going to get more teams next time. Their attitude to where Africa ends up is very, very interesting. They'll either take a very dim view or they'll take the view that, No, let's give these guys a little bit of help because that helps them look good. And then that's the last thing I'll say and I can't wait for this is when England gets knocked out on some very, very dodgy decisions. 

Alec: [00:38:29] Oh, well, on that note, I think we're going to say thank you for joining us on the dive. We look forward to having you back in two weeks when Messi is holding up the trophy after a questionable decision. And you can have the floor to come and say, I told you so. So put that in your calendar. 

Ed: [00:38:45] I look forward to it. Thank you for having me.