Bold predictions wrapped for 2023

Bryce: [00:00:15] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast that follows our journey of investing, whether you're an absolute beginner or approaching Warren Buffett status. Our aim is to help break down your barriers from beginning to dividend. My name is Bryce and as always, I'm joined by my equity buddy, Ren. How are you going?. 

Alec: [00:00:29] I'm very good. Bryce good to be here for our final week of 2022. We say that as if there's like some break in content we are doing this week. There's going to be one week when nothing is released and then we're straight into the summer series. 

Bryce: [00:00:49] That's the way we do things at Equity Mates. The content train keeps rolling, but I can't wait for this summer series. It's been an awesome deep dive on 12 stocks, both here in Australia and from the US, so I can't wait to crack into that but don't want to wish away the current moment because we are here to do our bold predictions. Wrap of 2023. And boy, did we have some bold predictions.

Alec: [00:01:09] We did some not great. Some are okay. 

Bryce: [00:01:15] Some okay. 

Alec: [00:01:16] I haven't actually tallied them up to say who won. 

Bryce: [00:01:19] Me either, so we may as well do it on the fly. So we've made 24 predictions at the start of the year. Some we're going to have a chat about, some we're just going to have a listen to and make a call. But yes, as you said, Ren, this is the last Monday chat episode. We've got Andrew Brown with his bold predictions this Thursday and a crypto wrap on Friday. And boy, Andrew is very excited for his Friend for his wrap. He said it's his favourite episode of the year because he actually loves reflecting on 12 months when things can often seem so chaotic. Make sure you tune in on Thursday, but Ren, we might as well get stuck into it. 

Alec: [00:01:54] The build for this year, I don't think we've done before for a bold predictions episode is Sascha, our producer, has actually clipped out what we've said from 12 months ago. Now I haven't listened to them. You have. Which gives you a level of control over which ones you play, which I'm a little bit nervous about. But I guess, up to you when you want to play a clip or do we want to listen to them all? 

Bryce: [00:02:21] Yeah, let's just go through them and see how we go. Alright. So your first off the bat Ren, bold prediction number one. 

Alec: [00:02:27] I only know one of your bold predictions. We've made notes separately, so hopefully we don't have overlap. But I know where we do have a little bit of overlap is we both are betting on consolidation. Yes. So my bold prediction is we will see a merger or an acquisition between US streaming giants and I'm talking there Netflix, Disney, Hulu, Peacock, Prime Video, Apple TV, HBO, Max Sling, Fubo there's others, but I just couldn't be bothered to list it.

Bryce: [00:02:57] So there you go Ren a massive Merger. 

Alec: [00:03:00] Well, I'm glad I said there were others, but I couldn't be bothered to list them because there were others, two of which did merge. Warner Brothers and Discovery. 

Bryce: [00:03:10] So there you go. In 2022, we did have a merger. So bold prediction is correct.

Alec: [00:03:15] Hell, yeah.

Bryce: [00:03:16] Now, I'm pretty sure we. Both of us took bets on all of this. I don't think I think for the sake of it, we just said I. 

Alec: [00:03:23] I don't I don't think we really do the Whole.

Bryce: [00:03:25] Yeah. Who's the bets on.

Alec: [00:03:27] We used to put bills on them but you never bought me any. 

Bryce: [00:03:30] I'm not shrinking anymore. 

Alec: [00:03:33] What are you talking about?

Bryce: [00:03:34] All right. Number two, Ren, speaking of consolidation, this was my first one. My bold prediction is that this is an acquisition play for a lot of these companies. I can see that there's going to be consolidation in this space Or A lot of the large retail chains who often struggle to fulfil this last mile will buy and acquire some of these companies. So I think the answer to this around is no. 

Alec: [00:04:01] What do you mean you think?

Bryce: [00:04:03] The answer is no? We've actually seen a reverse in this space rather than acquisitions. We've seen companies go out of business. [00:04:09][6.5]

Alec: [00:04:10] Yeah. So we've seen volley and send go out of business. We've seen overseas, we've seen gopuff and gorillas and carrier all massively cut costs. Milk run milk, honey. Still standing, but changing their business model. Now what, $20 minimum delivery? Yeah. No longer. 10 minutes. [00:04:30][20.0]

Bryce: [00:04:30] 30 minutes. [00:04:31][0.3]

Alec: [00:04:31] Now, did you also say they're now doing overnight. Orders. Marketplace. [00:04:34][3.2]

Bryce: [00:04:35] So you know so they're now just going straight back to what Woollies and CO and now offer, which is their metro for 30 to 60 minute offerings. So the last man standing milk run. Interesting to see where it'll be in 12 months time. But Ren, let's keep moving. You've come in hot with a Tesla. 

Alec: [00:04:56] Tesla is not the most valuable car maker by the end of the year. 

Bryce: [00:04:59] Yeah, okay. Who is? 

Alec: [00:05:01] Well, so Tesla is about $1,000,000,000,000 market cap. Yeah. Next biggest is Toyota at about 270 billion US. Volkswagen like 130 billion, which I think is it. 

Bryce: [00:05:11] So you're really saying. Tesla is wiped out or the other Companies are cutting prices. Okay, I Will. 

Alec: [00:05:20] The other bold prediction I was thinking with Tesla was Elon isn't CEO by the end of the year. 

Bryce: [00:05:24] Lucky he didn't get it. But if. 

Alec: [00:05:29] I could carry that. Over, I would.

Bryce: [00:05:32] All right. So Tesla is not the most valuable car company. [00:05:34][2.2]

Alec: [00:05:35] So Tesla still is the most valuable car company. When are we recording that? I said it was $1,000,000,000,000 market cap. It's now about half of that. So I was right directionally. 

Bryce: [00:05:46] Yes, you are right directionally. So I'm going to just jump ahead here because I also feel so sorry. 

Alec: [00:05:52] Can I just also say we said VW 130 billion USD. Now it just shows how much the euro has been whacked and how strong the US dollar has been this year. 

Bryce: [00:06:04] What is it now? 

Alec: [00:06:05] Well, Volkswagen is like an €80 billion car company, but that's just the exchange rate. 

Bryce: [00:06:11] Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Anyway, wow. Well, I'm going to just quickly jump ahead here because I also had a Tesla bold prediction. So here it is. I actually anticipate that Tesla keeps its competitors at bay and adds another 500B to its market share. That's it. That's kind of embarrassing. It has. It has kept. Its competitors are at bay. 

Alec: [00:06:31] Well, has it? Well. 

Bryce: [00:06:34] Well, still number one. 

Alec: [00:06:34] Toyota is only down 11% for the year. Tesla is down 50% from. 

Bryce: [00:06:38] At the time, Tesla had a market cap of about a trillion plus. It's now. And its share price was 400 USD at the start of the year. It's now 167 US at time of recording with a market cap of about 500 billion. 

Alec: [00:06:53] Tesla's share price is a hundred. And what did you say? 

Bryce: [00:06:55] 167? 

Alec: [00:06:56] It's 157. 

Bryce: [00:06:58] Oh, it's dropped since. Since I'm writing This. All right. So number four for you, Ren. 

Alec: [00:07:07] I'm going to say American inflation will be under 3% in 2022. They'll kill it as a story. 

Bryce: [00:07:14] Wow. Yes. Oh, it will be killed, this story. 

Alec: [00:07:22] Look, I think I was just a little early on that. But have you noticed that American inflation has really plateaued? 

Bryce: [00:07:30] It's certainly not killed as a story. That's a hard no. But let's. All right. Let's keep moving. Next from me, a metaverse avatar will be Time's Person of the Year. Oh, okay. Unfortunately, that didn't play out for a lot of me. Zelensky, president of Ukraine, was rightly Time's Person of the Year. All right, Ren. 

Alec: [00:07:55] Can we get a yes going here? 

Bryce: [00:07:57] Let's go on. So we've got number four for you. 

Alec: [00:08:01] Bold prediction. China recovers and the way to measure it is China's Bat Baidu: Alibaba, Tencent will outperform owl named Ant mama. 

Bryce: [00:08:14] All right. So Ant mama for those listening is Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon Matter Alphabet. 

Alec: [00:08:21] The new Fang. 

Bryce: [00:08:22] The new Fang. How did this one go run? 

Alec: [00:08:24] Well, I'm glad that I put a way to measure it, because by no measure could we say that China recovered? No, but I'm giving myself a yes for this. Because China's Bat Baidu: Alibaba and Tencent outperforms. 

Bryce: [00:08:40] So I mean, the numbers. 

Alec: [00:08:41] Spider down 18, Alibaba down 22, Tencent down 28, an average of down 23%. Okay, Apple down 20, Nvidia down 40, Tesla down 60, Microsoft down 23. Amazon down 46. Meta down 65. Alphabet down 34. The long and the short of it, those seven companies rolled up their average, down 41%. China's tech index outperformed America's Today. 

Bryce: [00:09:08] Gonna have to give that Tesla and metta really sucking down the rest of them. Tesla down 60 and met down 65. That is a ball breaker for those other companies. But well, well done. I mean, first, yes On the board,. 

Alec: [00:09:21] No one covered themselves in glory. 

Bryce: [00:09:23] Yes, that's true. All right. Here we go. Next one for me bold prediction. Robinhood shakes the hype. It's currently down 74% from its high late last year, shakes the hype and finishes up. And I'm going to throw in a spicy, bold prediction that it outperforms the S&P 500. That was spicy. That was a slice. 

Alec: [00:09:43] I like the spice. Give me the numbers. 

Bryce: [00:09:46] So Robinhood is down 48%. The S&P is down 16%. So massive fail on two parts if it didn't shake the hate and finish up and B it didn't outperform the S&P 500 so sorry price that is a no.

Alec: [00:10:03] Have you got one on the border. 

Bryce: [00:10:04] No, I haven't got one. Yeah. Oh, no. Let's keep moving. So when yours is coming in here. 

Alec: [00:10:12] Alphabet's new pharmaceutical play Isomorphic Labs. And so for those who haven't heard about it, they are using Google's AI to discover new drugs. This new company, Isomorphic Labs, will find at least one blockbuster drug in 2022. 

Bryce: [00:10:31] Now, of all of the ones that I would have wanted to come true, this would have been one of them. How did we go? Ren.

Alec: [00:10:36] So Google's DeepMind AI. They did not develop a blockbuster drug. The Alpha Fold system that they've got is getting a lot of applause from the industry. So that's something. But no.

Bryce: [00:10:54] But no. Okay. Oh, good. You've still got at least one. 

Alec: [00:10:57] AI this year. Decided to focus on art and language processing rather than drug discovery. 

Bryce: [00:11:03] Still pretty amazing what they've done. 

Alec: [00:11:06] Yes. Perhaps not as impactful as now. Anyway, 2023. 

Bryce: [00:11:12] All right. Let's keep going. I've got one here about Twitter. Bold prediction on my side. Twitter is acquired. By a crypto platform. Okay, so I'm going to give myself this one. 

Alec: [00:11:31] Yeah, I'll give it to you. 

Bryce: [00:11:32] Despite it being acquired by Elon Musk, I think the fact that it was acquired is worthy of a yes. So we're going to have to give that. 

Alec: [00:11:42] When did Elon first speak about acquiring Twitter? Was it was all the. 

Bryce: [00:11:46] Mid-Year. 

Alec: [00:11:47] This year? 

Bryce: [00:11:47] I think so, yeah. 

Alec: [00:11:50] good full credit. 

Bryce: [00:11:50] Thank you. Yeah. All right. 

Alec: [00:11:52] You've written no in the doc. 

Bryce: [00:11:55] Sorry. I should write Yes. All right. Let's keep going. So you have one here about where we would be at with COVID. 

Alec: [00:12:01] This is a two fold COVID prediction. So first prediction is we'll say another COVID variant by the year's end and I've labelled that as a not so bold prediction. That's almost certain. But then the second thing is at least one Australian state will have another major lockdown. Western Australia or Victoria all like if it goes, it gets out in the Northern Territory maybe. 

Bryce: [00:12:27] So where are we going with that?

Alec: [00:12:29] So we didn't have another lockdown? No. Although the year's not over yet. But we do have new variants. Yes, we've got XBB and BQ1. 

Bryce: [00:12:37] Yes. So that's 5050 twofold. Yes and no. 

Alec: [00:12:41] Well, again, the year hasn't played out. Yeah. Look, we've had two Christmases in a row ruined by COVID like we personally have. We were caught up in Strawberry Hills in 2020, and then we were both caught up in the aftermath of your engagement party in 2021. So I'm not counting my chickens until I'm eating at Christmas at 2:00 with a beer in my charcoal vehicle. 

Bryce: [00:13:08] Alright Ren, well, I've got a bold prediction here. 

Alec: [00:13:11] How long am I getting it? Yes.

Bryce: [00:13:12] You got it. Yes. Feels like I've tried to crunch about three predictions into this. So let's have a listen. I think that the Fed will lift rates too early. They'll freak out and then they won't raise rates for the rest of the year. Then the US markets, despite what everyone's saying, will finish higher and I'm talking double digits higher, I think not 20% like we've seen, but I think in the range Of. 10 to 20%. And that will be driven by Ant-Man Mana Tale of Two. It's a tale of two halves. Is that the right phrase? 

Alec: [00:13:45] I know what you're saying. Like you're saying the tale of two stock markets.

Bryce: [00:13:49] Yeah. Yeah, I think And Mama will continue to just exceed expectations and dry drive the market. And then if I'm to come home here, the RBA have signalled that they won't be raising interest rates in 2022, but I reckon there'll be one interest rate rise. That is cringeworthy to listen to. I look, let's break it down. The US will raise rates too early and then we'll freak out. 

Alec: [00:14:18] Well, they raised rates too late. 

Bryce: [00:14:20] They raised rates too late. 

Alec: [00:14:21] They have not freaked out. 

Bryce: [00:14:22] They haven't, they've been quite aggressive. 0 to 3.75%. 

Alec: [00:14:27] The US market will finish higher. 

Bryce: [00:14:29] That was an absolute bomb. 

Alec: [00:14:30] Double digits higher you. No. Driven by ant mama. 

Bryce: [00:14:35] No. 

Alec: [00:14:36] Well are you. Really it's been driven down by those stocks. 

Bryce: [00:14:38] Arguably.

Alec: [00:14:40] Now this next one, I want to give you some credit for you. Philip Lowe came out and said the RBA wouldn't raise rates until 2024, but Bryce Leske came out and said they would.

Bryce: [00:14:55] This is why you don't listen. Take investing advice from a podcast. 

Alec: [00:14:58] This is why you don't listen to predictions in any way, shape or form. 

Bryce: [00:15:01] Yes. So what are we doing here? I'm saying RBA we're going to get it. 

Alec: [00:15:06] Oh, you're going to. Well, okay, but, but. 

Bryce: [00:15:07] Overall that's a no it's a hard no. 

Alec: [00:15:09] On you also said the RBA would only rise once. 

Bryce: [00:15:12] Okay. So. Fine. All over? No.

Alec: [00:15:14] I'm happy for you to have it. 

Bryce: [00:15:16] All right, Ren. So you've come in with an antitrust bold prediction.

Alec: [00:15:20] I think we will see a major antitrust win in the US for after about a decade of regulators not doing anything with antitrust. We'll see either a major court win or we'll see a major piece of legislation passed. Nice, because there's nothing that Republicans and Democrats can agree on except big tech. They hate big tech. 

Bryce: [00:15:45] All right. So what were the results with this? I remember we did talk about this and obviously last year it was a thing we were discussing. 

Alec: [00:15:50] Yeah. So I think directionally, it's definitely become more and more of a thing that was Meta have been blocked in court from a couple of VR company acquisitions. The FTC is suing to block Microsoft acquiring Activision Blizzard. That's a big one, but I don't know if there has been a major win so far. 

Bryce: [00:16:14] Yeah, I would agree, but it's directionally right. So we're going to have to give that a no, Ren. I'm sorry. 

Alec: [00:16:22] Yeah, but I think it's pretty clear where the world is going. It's even more clear where Europe is going. But I did say in the US. 

Bryce: [00:16:31] Will we see one in 2023. 

Alec: [00:16:33] Definitely. Well, I don't know. Like they've got high priced lawyers and. 

Bryce: [00:16:38] Interesting. 

Alec: [00:16:39] I don't know. I don't know what it is. Depends. I don't think. I don't think Activision Blizzard will get blocked, but maybe it will. I mean, you can say how good our predictions are so far. 

Bryce: [00:16:51] All right. I had a bit of a sombre one here, Ren. Forward prediction for 2023, but I've got to note it now. That 2022 will be the last time that we see Munger and Buffett at Berkshire again. 

Alec: [00:17:03] That's Really sad, but. 

Bryce: [00:17:04] Not because of a death, perhaps. But just because I'm too old to rock up. 

Alec: [00:17:08] Yeah. I mean, that would be nice.

Bryce: [00:17:11] I think Munger will be 99 this year. I need something. Something crazy. Hey, we saw him at the Sony Hearts and Minds Conference, and despite being still pretty switched on, was looking very frail. So Ren, this is a terrible day, obviously, because we're not going to know, but we are endeavouring to get over ourselves in 2023. So if you are out in the community and also heading to Omaha next year, do let us know. But let's keep going, Ren. This was another from you. 

Alec: [00:17:42] Hold on. Sidenote, you know, Charlie Munger's birthday is the 1st of January. 

Bryce: [00:17:45] Oh, there you go. Yeah. 

Alec: [00:17:47] 1st of January, 1924. 

Bryce: [00:17:49] I think I got his name wrong there. He's going to be 99 next year.

Alec: [00:17:53] He turns 99 on the 1st of January.

Bryce: [00:17:55] Yeah. 99 on the 1st of January. 2023, yeah. Just Imagine if he gets to 100. 

Alec: [00:18:02] 100. Wow. 

Bryce: [00:18:03] Love to say that, Alright Ren,one from you. 

Alec: [00:18:06] Coming home to Australia. I feel this is a bold prediction. Australia will have a carbon price by the end of the year. Not the end of the year. Yeah. No, that's a no. But we should.

Bryce: [00:18:19] Wishful thinking. All right, let's keep moving, then. That's a no. What have I got? I think the New York Times is on a mission for subscribers. We know that they said they want 10 million paid subscribers by 2025. They're not quite there yet. They've got a long way to go. They're now buying their way to get it. They paid 550 million to buy the athletics, which had a million paid subscribers. Still a long way to go. I think that will see them make another reasonable acquisition to the same value or more in 2022. Arrow So directionally, right, they did make another acquisition. So it's worth noting the Athletic was in January 2022 that they made that and we did the bold predictions just short of that. They have said that they remain focussed on becoming the essential subscription for every English speaking person seeking to understand and engage the world. And they did acquire a word all, but it wasn't to the tune of $500 million or more. So directionally right or wrong, but it is interesting, they did make another acquisition and they have paid for it. 

Alec: [00:19:26] All right. Well, Bryce, The New York Times might be on a mission for paid subscribers way, a free service ad supported. So let's take a quick break and hear one of those ads. Alright Bryce. We haven't covered ourselves in glory so far, but hey, that seems to be a trend in 2022 in the stock market. Let's keep rolling. What have you got next? 

Bryce: [00:19:48] So in our starting to move into some of the non finance predictions, Ren and you've thrown one out here with the Winter Olympics. 

Alec: [00:19:55] Australia will win a gold medal at the Winter Olympics. 

Bryce: [00:19:59] So yeah. And what's the result? 

Alec: [00:20:02] Australia won its sixth gold medal ever at a Winter Olympics in history. We won gold in the women's moguls Jakara Anthony take about Bryce not covering ourselves in glory, but you certainly did. 

Bryce: [00:20:19] Well played to you and to Jakara, Ren and as you said, well done. All right, I've got one coming in that is also going to be very cringeworthy. Let's go. In terms of sectors and industries that I'm keen on, I think that we'll continue to see the semiconductor industry absolutely smash it this year. I'm going to say double digit growth of 15% or more. And we're going to take that as the index. Let's take semi as the yardstick, the ETF semi. 

Alec: [00:20:46] The ETF Securities ETF. Yeah.

Bryce: [00:20:49] Now the Global X ETF, semi SEMI full disclosure, I do own it, but I seem to have a trend here of liking double digit growth really, really going for it. Semi is actually down 26% for the year. We know there were some issues in the semiconductor industry, but yes, definitely a no on that front. All right, Ren, here we go. You've gone to politics. Let's hear what you said. 

Alec: [00:21:13] To not so bold political predictions. Macron will be re-elected in France. Which actually, you know, a couple of years ago, his approval rating was in the twenties. But I studied. And then another one, the Democrats will get swept at the midterm election in the US. Republicans will control both the House and the Senate.

Bryce: [00:21:33] So a bit to unpack there. How do we go? 

Alec: [00:21:36] Macron got re-elected. The Democrats lost the House. But they held the Senate. 

Bryce: [00:21:43] Nice. So. Yes. Yes. No.

Alec: [00:21:47] Yes.

Bryce: [00:21:50] Okay. So you've got some got a few yeses on the board. Can I get a yes here with a prediction for our Equity Mates team? I think one of our team members here at Equity Mates will get rug pulled this year. Did anyone get rug pulled ? 

Alec: [00:22:07] We got rugged with

Bryce: [00:22:21] But was that this year? 

Alec: [00:22:23] I think so. I'll ask the boys. All right.

Bryce: [00:22:25] Well, I'm going to just put that one down as a yes. Now, we don't have we don't have many to go. And then we've got a couple of predictions for some of our team members as well, Darcy and Alf, both of which were which were interesting but Ren here goes for a stock of the year bold prediction. 

Alec: [00:22:41] My three previous stocks of the predictions Atomos, Costa and Tencent yeah. Will outperform your three year predictions on a percentage basis. 

Bryce: [00:22:54] So and just to confirm you had Atomos, Costa Group and Tencent and I had Baby Bunting, City Chic and Roblox as my stocks of the year over the last three. So how are we going here? This would be interesting, actually. 

Alec: [00:23:08] Well, look, it's been a tough year, we should say. But do you Feel on face value those three names? Against those three names. 

Bryce: [00:23:16] I mean, on face value, I would have to say yours is probably just going to lose out to mine. But you've got some solid names in there. I know, the Roblox from mine is likely to have been absolutely hammered. 

Alec: [00:23:31] And what if I give you one more piece of information, which is I think Atomos was the second worst performing stock on the ASX this year. 

Bryce: [00:23:39] It was definitely top ten. Yeah, for sure. 

Alec: [00:23:41] Like bottom ten. Sorry. 

Bryce: [00:23:42] Bottom ten. Yeah. Worst performing. Yeah. I mean, I think that's a red herring.

Alec: [00:23:48] You're right. Atomos also is the worst performing of the six, but overall, my three averaged out two down 45% year averaged out to down 68. 

Bryce: [00:23:59] What this year. Yeah. Who is that. What? Who who drags it down? 

Alec: [00:24:03] So all three of yours were down more than 50%. Roblox was down 66% year to date. City chic down 88% year to date. 

Bryce: [00:24:14] What a bargain. 

Alec: [00:24:17] And baby bunting down 52%. 

Bryce: [00:24:20] Wow. There you go. Well I've I've just I've lost I haven't really checked on those stocks in a while as you can tell. How about yours Atomos. So obviously it's been pumped. 

Alec: [00:24:31] Atomos down 93% Tencent down 28%, Costa best of the six. Not much to celebrate, though, down 15%.

Bryce: [00:24:42] Wow. There you go. So as well as with everything, your stocks of the year tend to come out two or three years later. 

Alec: [00:24:51] Sort of as with everything this year, we all would have just been better off investing in the ASX 200.

Bryce: [00:24:58] Very true. All right, well, let's close out. We've only got a couple to go and then we'll get our Darcy and Alf to join us. So Ren, I have one that is all things related to AFL. I'm going to close out and say that look, last year I said that Essendon would get the wooden spoon, copped a lot of hate from that saying how can you be so uninspired and negative about your football team? So this year I'm going to say that Essendon won their first finals since 2004. Unbelievable. Saints from May should have stuck with my god, we finished 15th, brutally sacked our coach and it was a bit of a disaster for Essendon, really just couldn't get off the starting blocks. 

Alec: [00:25:40] But you got a good coach for this. 

Bryce: [00:25:44] Really good coach this year. But as with all things Essendon, it's always just yeah, it's a rollercoaster. But then you also had an AFL one to close out your bold predictions. Here we go.

Alec: [00:25:55] Here's my bold prediction and it has two parts and it might tie in with my earlier prediction about COVID lockdowns. The grand final is on your wedding weekends.No, just set off two veils on my mind. So that's part one. And part two is the Swans of Essendon. 

Bryce: [00:26:22] Bombers in the grand phase. 

Alec: [00:26:24] Could you imagine if the swans and bombers were playing on your wedding weekend? Would we postpone the wedding? So I was right about the swans. I'm a very clear minded and rational analyst when it comes to my own time. 

Bryce: [00:26:40] No. You're not watching the game with you. It's unbearable. Oh, my goodness. 

Alec: [00:26:48] Swans by the grand final. Essendon. Not so much. 

Bryce: [00:26:51] Yeah, Swans didn't make the grand final. Essendon not so much unfortunately, but 2023. I'm feeling we will be on the rise, but I'm not going to be so bold as to say hard to.

Alec: [00:27:01] Fall much Further. 

Bryce: [00:27:02] It is very Well it is that you can fall a lot further and wooden spoon is not a place that you want to be. We did have a funny one here to close out by the end of 2022, which is another of my bold predictions here. Equity Mates goes Thermonuclear. Has that played out?We haven't put a measure in there, but it has been a great year here at Equity Mates made it so a massive thank you to everyone that has supported us. For those that came to FinFest past the launch of our new shows earlier this year, it has been huge. We cannot wait for 2023, but Ren, we did get two of our team members, very new team members at the start of the year, Darcy and Alf to come on and provide one of their bold predictions for the year. So let's get up, Darcy. 

Alec: [00:27:47] All right. Darcy is joining us. Darcy, Welcome. 

Darcy: [00:27:49] Thanks, guys. 

Alec: [00:27:50] Now, people who listen to The Dive are probably familiar with Darcy's voice or very keen. Equity Mates may remember him from the start of the year where he predicted something about Nvidia. 

Darcy: [00:28:02] My bold prediction Is that Nvidia will become one of the top three companies in the world by market Cap. So currently at $673 Billion Market cap. It's got a long way to go. But that's my bold prediction for 2022. 

Bryce: [00:28:23] Seriously bold, now I do want to caveat that I don't feel so bad. We've just come off the back of reviewing our bold predictions and I'm pretty sure I didn't get one right except Equity Mates colleagues would be rug pulled.

Alec: [00:28:36] No, Early climb Dow was actually in 2021. 

Bryce: [00:28:39] Oh no I didn't even get that right. 

Darcy: [00:28:41] Climbing down was my fault. So I think no, no. 

Alec: [00:28:44] No, it was that venture capitalist we won't name checked them, but don't take stock tips from mates. 

Bryce: [00:28:53] Darcy, give us the lowdown. Did you get this right? Where are we at with Nvidia?

Darcy: [00:28:57] I certainly didn't get it. Right, but I know Nvidia, its market cap is now worth $434 billion, so shaved off a little bit. Over 200. Bill. But the good thing about it is this was one of the most. Traded stocks by Nancy Pelosi's. Husband. So I guess I'm going to claim that as a tick. 

Alec: [00:29:21] That is bullish. If he's still. Holding, that's a bullish signal. 

Bryce: [00:29:25] Well, okay. So you've. Just completely redone it and giving yourself something to be delighted.

Alec: [00:29:31] So Darcy said it was going to be the top three by market cap that didn't necessarily require it to grow. It just required other things to fall further. 

Bryce: [00:29:40] Well, where does it sit? 

Alec: [00:29:41] So Nvidia, it globally is the 11th biggest company. [00:29:45][3.9]

Bryce: [00:29:46] Do we know where it was at the start?

Alec: [00:29:47] We don't. I reckon it was probably about the seller. Yeah, because you know,. 

Darcy: [00:29:51] I think it was nine or ten. 

Alec: [00:29:53] We were including it in Ant Mama. And so it was one of the it was in that world it's down 40% this year, but it's still the 11th biggest listed company. 

Bryce: [00:30:06] Wow. Well, there you go. 

Darcy: [00:30:07] Okay. I'm pretty bullish on it. I'm pretty bullish 

Alec: [00:30:14] Don't take stock tips from a Darcy. 

Bryce: [00:30:17] You've now got the summer to think about another bold prediction or two for 2024, 2023 And we'll be back next year to get you in the studio to Hear some better. Darcy, thanks for joining us. 

Alec: [00:30:32] And and if you want to hear more from Darcy, check him out on The Dive.

Bryce: [00:30:36] Yes, but we'll we'll leave it there. Thanks, Darcy. 

Darcy: [00:30:39] thanks, guys.

Bryce: [00:30:39] All righty. So that was from Darcy. Now we've got Alf coming in with another bold prediction around the magma stocks. 

Alec: [00:30:47] Yeah, I actually don't remember what magma was. 

Bryce: [00:30:50] Microsoft, Apple, Google. 

Alec: [00:30:52] Oh, he's not using amongst. 

Bryce: [00:30:53] Made his own. 

Bryce: [00:31:02] All right. Well, we've tried to call out. He hasn't picked up three times now. So I think he's trying to shy away from his bold predictions. But let's give it a listen anyway and we can respond. 

Alf: [00:31:10] My bold prediction is For 2022, we're going to see the magma stocks continue to rally. Oh, well, despite the recent dip, they're going to rally in 2020. 

Bryce: [00:31:20] Okay. 22. So firstly, magma. 

Alf: [00:31:23] Yeah. So Magma, that's Microsoft, Amazon, Google Meta and Apple. 

Alec: [00:31:29] Well, first of all, I've got to say very similar prediction to what you make.And luckily we've already pulled that data so magma Microsoft down 20. 3%, Amazon down 46%. Meta down 65%. Alphabet down 34%. What am I missing? Apple down 20%. 

Bryce: [00:31:47] So no good. Sorry, Alfie. Your prediction was wrong. It drove the market the other way. 

Alec: [00:31:53] Also, he's not here to defend himself. But Magma is a shocking acronym because we're either updating all the company names or updating none of them. Why does Google get its old name? But Meta gets new name and mama is clearly superior to magma. 

Bryce: [00:32:11] Was, yes. True. All right. Well, Alf sorry, bro, but no good. 

Alec: [00:32:16] You've got to figure out your final exercise hard next time. 

Bryce: [00:32:19] But Ren, that does bring us to the end of our bold predictions for 2022. An excellent reminder as to why you should never listen to predictions about the future direction of markets of business news stories. But it isn't always a fun excess to exercise, and it is great to always look back on the year and and to think about what we were even thinking at that time. You know, that was before the idea that inflation was persistent and rates were being lifted and it was still it. 

Alec: [00:32:53] You were super bullish? 

Bryce: [00:32:54] I was super bullish. It was. Yeah. A lot can happen very quickly. 

Alec: [00:33:00] Yeah. Forecasters make predictions because they're asked, not because they know. And media companies publish predictions because they'll get clicks, not because it'll help. 

Bryce: [00:33:10] That's it. So that's the market we're in now. 

Alec: [00:33:15] And we're going to publish it again next year. 

Speake: [00:33:18] We will be back in. 

Bryce: [00:33:19] February with our bold predictions for 2023. But it's been an awesome year. We've covered a lot of ground. We've covered a lot of content. I think you did the maths and we've interviewed 73 experts this year. The awards for our Community Equity Mates Awards will be released on Wednesday. 

Alec: [00:33:38] Actually, voting will still be open when this is released. 

Bryce: [00:33:40] Voting still open. Results will be published on Wednesday. 

Alec: [00:33:44] We'll include a link to vote in our show notes. Yep. 

Bryce: [00:33:47] And don't forget to keep your eye on our website and socials over summer as we release information about FinFest for 2023 to get your hands on some Early Bird tickets. But it's been an absolute pleasure. Thank you so much to the Equity Mates community for the support this year. We know it's been a tough year. We hope we've been able to deliver you some value. Stick around, though, because we have Andrew Brown on Thursday and then a wrap with what happened in crypto on Friday.

Alec: [00:34:16] And then we've got a week off. Yes. And then we've got our best summer series to date. 

Bryce: [00:34:21] Absolute. 

Alec: [00:34:21] We're joined, we're doing a company breakdown and then we're joined by an expert, an analyst, a fund manager to help us unpack the company. It's going to be some good content over summer. 

Bryce: [00:34:30] I absolutely loved it. And if you're also looking for a bit of a refresher on some basic money tips to get you started for 2013. Don't forget, we have Get Started Investing in six episodes. 

Alec: [00:34:43] 2013. Just invest in Apple. Wow. So let's just invest in bitcoin. 

Bryce: [00:34:48] Hasn't been 2023. I'm all over the shot but Ren it's been an absolute pleasure, a lot of fun and well we'll pick it up next year.

Alec: [00:34:54] Sounds good.