Rate, review and subscribe to Equity Mates Investing on Apple Podcasts 

Apple’s Vision 👓 + can Bryce find bargains in the dog kennel?

HOSTS Alec Renehan & Bryce Leske|19 June, 2023

First up – some regrettable news. We have decided to postpone FinFest until 2024.

Last year, we put in a tremendous amount of effort to launch FinFest, and we couldn’t have achieved it without your support and the backing of our partners. The current economic climate and cost of living crisis has seen many businesses reduce marketing budgets. As a result, it has become impossible to deliver FinFest 2023 at the scale and quality we desire. We don’t want to compromise the experience we created for you last year. For more info, check out the link.

In this episode, Bryce and Alec talk about Apple’s latest product launch, and Bryce brings the latest learnings from his session with his Mentor Henry Jennings!

PS. We’ve got a special offer on the Rask + Equity Mates courses! Take a free course or become part of the highly-rated Value Investor Program, and get $100 off with the Promo Code: MATES

Want more Equity Mates? Click here

*****

In the spirit of reconciliation, Equity Mates Media and the hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respects to their elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people today. 

*****

Equity Mates Investing Podcast is a product of Equity Mates Media. 

This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes. Any advice is general advice only, and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, needs or objectives. 

Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement. And if you are unsure, please speak to a financial professional. 

Equity Mates Media operates under Australian Financial Services Licence 540697.

Equity Mates is part of the Acast Creator Network.

Bryce: [00:00:15] All right. Welcome back to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast that follows our journey of investing and whether you're an absolute beginner or approaching Warren Buffett status. Our aim is to help break down your barriers from beginning to dividend. Now, while we are licensed, we're not aware of your financial circumstances. So all information on this show is for education and entertainment purposes only. And any advice is general. And if you're just getting up to speed and you're just starting your investing journey, then we do have a podcast called Get Started Investing that might help you get up to speed with the basics. But with that said, my name is Bryce, and as always, I'm joined by my equity buddy, Ren. How are you? 

Alec: [00:00:50] How are you? I'm very good, Bryce. Very excited for this episode, a big episode. Today we're going to be talking about the big announcement from Apple last week, the Vision Pro and what that might mean for investors. We're going to be picking up the conversation around your mentored conversation and some of the actions that you've been working on. And we're going to be speaking to a member of the Equity Mates community. But first of all, we need to just take a quick minute and talk about FinFest. 

Bryce: [00:01:17] Yes, we do have an update. And Ren, regrettably, we've decided to postpone FinFest until 2024. Last year we put in a huge amount of effort to launch FinFest, and we couldn't have achieved it without firstly, your support, the equity mates community, but also the backing of a lot of our major partners and the current economic climate and cost of living crisis has seen many businesses reduce their marketing budgets and as a result it's become impossible to deliver Fin Fest 2023 at the scale and quality that we really want. So we did explore the option of hosting a smaller event. We did explore the option of increasing ticket prices, but it became clear that it wouldn't live up to the standards that we set for ourselves for FinFest last year. [00:02:03][45.4]

Alec: [00:02:03] Yeah, now there is good news. We do have a date for 2024, 26th of October, marketing the calendars. We're really excited to bring another FinFest and I guess fingers crossed touchwood that the marketing budgets in the finance sector are back where they were. But yeah, for, for now, for this year, for this moment we can't throw it.

Bryce: [00:02:30] Yeah, we don't want to compromise the experience that we created for you guys last year. And as the saying goes, we are only as good as our last event and we want to make sure that the next one surpasses all expectations. So we're pausing 2024. It'll be back on October 26th. There is still a link equitymates.com /finfest where you can leave your details and keep up to date with tickets and information as it comes. But despite the postponement, we still do want to offer in-person events during this year because so many of you have put your name down. So we're going to ensure that later on in this year we get around to some of the cities in Australia to connect with you guys and do some cool stuff as well. So stay tuned for that. We do apologise if it's caused any inconvenience for any of you, but we do thank you for your support as always and look forward to seeing you either later this year or at FinFest next year. 

Alec: [00:03:21] That's it. All right, Bryce, let's get into it and let's start with the news of the moment. And that is we have potentially seen the next step forward in computing or a massive white elephant, and that is Apple's new vision program. 

Bryce: [00:03:39] What did you think? 

Alec: [00:03:40] I was pretty impressed. But Apple always have a really slick launch and then the first users, because the first user tests and reviews have been very positive. But Apple is giving it to big fans of their products and, you know, tech people who are early adopters. So I'm excited to try it I think is my my big takeaway now. 

Bryce: [00:04:07] Same I would love to try it. They do an epic job at making things that call. I think when Apple do ever release anything, it is of such quality. Your comment at the top it is the future or is it a white elephant? That's for me, the unknown, I think, in its current state. 

Alec: [00:04:26] Well, I mean, you came in hot to the office the day after you said it was the future straight what it is. You will. I'll write a check right now, if I could get one.

Bryce: [00:04:34] I think in ten years. So apparently the so you can see the evolution of this being something along the lines of in its current state, it looks like ski goggles and it's got a cord going to a battery that sits in your back pocket and it lasts like 2 hours or something like that. You can obviously see a progression where technology becomes better and the ability for it to projects at higher quality and across smaller lens with better battery life, etc., etc.. Over time you're getting to the point where you're literally wearing what would be a normal pair of glasses, and it doesn't look anywhere near as obtrusive and nerdy and unsocial. And at that point we'll look back on this moment and probably be like, Wow, that was the iPhone of 2008. Look how far we've gone. 

Alec: [00:05:19] Yeah, yeah. So it's probably important to just set the context that we have seen this before from other big tech players. And Google was the first 2013 they launched the Google Glass, which is exactly what you're talking about, the glass, the smaller glasses. 

Bryce: [00:05:36] Yeah, but I don't think the technology from what I've read and listen to isn't there to deliver what Apple has put in to theirs, which is communication via your eyes and hands. You're controlling your glasses. That and what you're seeing and visualising is not there to get it into the glasses like I'm wearing right now. 

Alec: [00:05:58] Yeah, yeah, yeah. So Google 2013 launched the Google Glass by people hate it like people criticise it. The term glass hulls gets termed for people who are wearing Google glasses privacy concerns because people are out in public with the cameras filming and all of that stuff. But January 2015 launched in 2013. By January 2015, Google pulled it off the market. They try and relaunch it, I think a few years later as a B2B product, and this year they've pulled it all together. So Google Glass Failure. Microsoft come along 2016 with the Microsoft HoloLens and they pitch it more as a B2B product and it feels like it's got a little bit of traction, but not a hype. They had a massive order for the US military. The US military bought about 100,000 of them. There's like some surgical applications where if you're a doctor or you're a surgeon, you put the glasses on and I'll show you where to cut. 

Bryce: [00:06:59] That's interesting. 

Alec: [00:07:01] I hope my surgeons know without the glasses, the best application I've heard of the Microsoft HoloLens is in warehouses. So, you know, like when you're working at Woollies and you went to a distribution centre, people had the headsets on and they were told like, go to this, buy you collect this kind of stuff? Yeah. With the HoloLens rather than getting told in your ear it like, like the box that you got to pick with like light up in front of you. Yeah. With the augmented reality. Yeah. That's pretty cool. 

Bryce: [00:07:28] That is. 

Alec: [00:07:29] But Microsoft have had a heap of traction then comes along Meta Facebook, they buy Oculus and then Meta launched the Quest. 

Bryce: [00:07:38] Quest. 

Alec: [00:07:39] 2019. 

Bryce: [00:07:40] Meta Quest. 

Alec: [00:07:41] The big difference between what Apple has got and what Meta have got is that Meta is just virtual reality. You can't say through the glasses Apple is augmented reality. You can see through the glasses men are trying to sell their product. It's about ten straight, ten times cheaper than the the apple glasses, but they haven't really hit. So if you. 

Bryce: [00:08:05] Look at if you look at some videos online of people who have who have got the Vision pro from Apple and met a question there comparing the two worlds apart really in terms of quality. 

Alec: [00:08:16] Yeah well that doesn't surprise me.

Bryce: [00:08:17] Worlds apart. The point was raised that, you know when when matter went hot on Quest and Google and Co and did Apple go we need we're going to need to be in the game here let's sign off on development of our own glasses would Tim cook after the failure of failure in inverted commas of all three of these, would Tim Cook be signing off now on the glasses, knowing what he knows. 

Alec: [00:08:45] Or alternative theory? Apple and Facebook have been explicitly criticising each other. Apple for Facebook's breach of privacy and data protection. Facebook because Apple basically killed that well really damaged their business model when they put some of that privacy stuff in like they've been pretty explicitly warring to. Is this a spite project from Tim Cook? 

Bryce: [00:09:08] Well, that's I think what the suggestion was. Let's just do something to make sure we have a place in the game. Yeah, and they've done it and it's better. But from an investor point of view, a shareholder of Apple and from a meaningful revenue generating idea, I think the math saw that they're projecting to sell 150,000 units of this thing, which is going to be about 500 million bucks. 

Alec: [00:09:29] Those projections just aren't worth the paper they're written on at this point. Like it, you know.

Bryce: [00:09:33] I mean, Apple is projecting that. 

Alec: [00:09:34] Yeah, but like what would they predicting for the iPhone? Back in the day, it's like. 

Bryce: [00:09:38] No, no, this is my first year. Yeah, this year they're saying at the unit price, based on what we know, we're expecting to sell 150,000. So that's 500 million in revenue. They made almost 400 billion. So it's a tiny speck in the grand scheme. 

Alec: [00:09:51] It is the biggest product that Tim Cook has launched. I think outside of this it was AirPods and Apple Watch.

Bryce: [00:09:58] I'm loving the rumours that Apple is on track to be one of the first companies to hit a trillion in revenue. But to do that, it's like, what do they need to do? And my friend, my mate Scott Galloway, he is really bullish on Apple coming out with the car. He reckons that's how they get To A trillion in revenue. An Apple car. Hook up with some. 

Alec: [00:10:22] Tesla.

Bryce: [00:10:23] Wow Yeah or he hook up with some car manufacturer who has the capacity. make it beautiful. 

Alec: [00:10:30] There's an argument though that they have with the car play they've decided we don't need the car. The value is in owning the cars tech ecosystem and being like the point of sale in the app store for the car and stuff like that. And the car plays in like I think over 200 million cars or something stupid these days, you know, who must be peaking snap snap. 

Bryce: [00:10:51] That they were originally. 

Alec: [00:10:53] They Pitch themselves in as an augmented reality play. They tried the glasses a couple of times and they're just going to get blown out of the water by these big companies in their big budget. 

Bryce: [00:11:02] Yeah, I remember we were at uni and they brought out the, the Ray-Bans. With the little lens in it. 

Alec: [00:11:09] When they IPO, they, they were like, we're not a messaging app, we're a hardware company. 

Bryce: [00:11:15] But it's good that they've realised where their talents and core customers lie. And it's not in VR, it's in instant messaging. 

Alec: [00:11:22] Yeah, yeah, yeah. What we saw in the product launch was people wearing the glasses and then creating screens in the glasses. And it's just a reminder that when we launch new technology, we really anchor to old technology. And so it's like we've put these glasses on where we don't need things to be on a screen. Like we use screens because they're the best way for us to see content, whatever, whatever's on our computer. But with these glasses, like, it could be immersive. You know, Al was talking about how you could wear them while playing golf, and you could have like a full you could tell it to project 10,000 people in the crowd watching you and cheering you on as you as you hit your spot. But instead it's like we just create TV screens or computer screens through the glasses. That makes Sense. So for now. 

Alec: [00:12:17] Yeah, well, the thing is, like, that's not how these will be used.

Bryce: [00:12:22] Yeah, but again, like, it's the first iteration. In ten years, the Gulf will be there. Imagine going cycling, You'll have them on. It'll give you all your stats. It'll show you how to take corners. Driving like a little bit there. Yeah. 

Alec: [00:12:33] Yeah. Well, and it's just like, rather than like watching, you know, they showed us like, oh, you'll watch the sport and you'll create a screen in front of you and you can make the screen whatever size you want, but it will be like, no, you're sitting in the game. 

Bryce: [00:12:45] You would think about the future. But for now, like you, I don't think you could, you couldn't do that because of the way that. 

Alec: [00:12:51] Now it's all gets all excited about the way.

Bryce: [00:12:54] It's all fed in. I like the idea of never needing a computer. It'll just be like I threw my glasses on, I can have a screen, I can have Zo anywhere. 

Alec: [00:13:02] You know, who would be shaking in their boots is screen makers. Yeah, like TV makers, computer monitors. 

Bryce: [00:13:08] Making themselves out. 

Alec: [00:13:10] Apple doesn't make TVs. 

Bryce: [00:13:12] They make Screens. 

Alec: [00:13:14] There'll be a third party manufacturer. 

Bryce: [00:13:17] They make computers. 

Alec: [00:13:18] They do make computers, you know. It just reminded me of the early days of the Internet where it was like, now you can have a newspaper on a computer, and then it's like, Oh, no, the the use cases of this were just unimaginable at that time. Yeah. And I think that's the same here. If it hits. 

Bryce: [00:13:37] It'll hit. I'm very I'm very bullish. If you're bullish, let us know. 

Alec: [00:13:40] Do you own an Apple? 

Bryce: [00:13:41] Apple Yeah well I own it in through Fang. 

Alec: [00:13:45] Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm the same, I don't own it directly. 

Bryce: [00:13:47] So if you're bullish or bearish, come and join us in the community. The Facebook discussion group to keep the conversation going. We'd love to hear your thoughts. If you're a shareholder, what do you think it means? If you're not, does this change your mind? So come and join us in the Equity Mates Facebook Discussion Group. But Ren, we're going to take a quick, quick break. And on the other side, we're going to pick up my mentored progression with Henry. I had some work to do. So let's crack in straight after this. So when we are on our journey with our mentors, our coaches, if you've just joined us for the first time, Ren and I have each paired up with an expert investor, runs with Andrew Page. I'm with Henry Jennings from Marcus today, and throughout this year we're sitting down with them to discuss and try and become better investors and find new ways of building an investing universe and making some investments. Now, last week when we spoke about a strategy with Henry around finding what is called the Dog Kenny. 

Alec: [00:14:52] That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

Bryce: [00:14:55] The stocks that have been slammed over the last 12 months and potentially have a catalyst to come in 2024 or in the next financial year. More specifically as people sell their stocks going into the end of the financial year to capture the capital gains book. 

Alec: [00:15:13] To capture the capital loss and capture capital losses. 

Bryce: [00:15:15] Yeah. So I actually gave Henry a buzz yesterday just to touch base with him. He's a very catalyst driven guy. We should know. I didn't actually record it. I was a great convert, so I'm kind of kicking myself. 

Alec: [00:15:28] I feel it's one of those ones where I feel it. That was the explicit rule and I record everything. 

Bryce: [00:15:33] Wasn't intended to be a conversation about this, but it turned into one and I said. 

Alec: [00:15:38] How are you doing? Social catch up? 

Bryce: [00:15:40] Yeah, how's it. Going? And halfway through, like I should be recording this because it would have just made so much better. But overnight the Fed have have paused interest rates and we're in a bull market all of a sudden since the lows of October over in the US, particularly the Nasdaq and the S&P up over 20%.

Alec: [00:16:01] NASDAQ is up more than 30%. 

Bryce: [00:16:04] So technically that means we're from bottom to 20%. You classify self as in a bull market. So we're in a bull market, which is just crazy. And so for Henry, it's it's this is a catalyst for him. He's just thinking where, you know, everyone keeps talking of recession. But unemployment in America is still incredibly low. Inflation, he now thinks, is a rounding error at 4%. And so the only thing and he feels like there's a lot of FOMO now and great starting to come back into the market. So how far that can go, who knows? But it is interesting, since we last spoke, we were talking about the the air bubble and a lot of those stocks have come off up and we were talking about is down 25% within the space of a couple of weeks from its high. So luckily, I didn't get on that trade. I just had it out. But I pulled a list of worst performing stocks Ren. And what I did was pulled every company in Australia that has fallen in the last 12 months, there's 1409 of them. So then I added stocks that are down in the last month. So that brought it down to 1008. And then I added a market cap of 100 million or More. Because you want a bit of liquidity. So that gave 288 and some interesting stocks in that zip, obviously is a big one that has been absolutely smashed. So what I've tried to do here is just pull a list and now I'm going to watch this list over the next 2 to 3 weeks. If increased sales continue, then have a chat with Henry about where we think there's opportunity for Catalyst, because it's interesting as some of them. Yeah, we'll get some. But anyway, zip down 67%. There's a lot of retail there. Beacon lighting down 29, baby bunting down 69. Nick Scali Adairs all getting hammered. The ASX is down 22% now. I called Henry about this. Did you know that the competing exchange now has 20% market share. 

Alec: [00:18:01] There you go. And so like in like what, In what in like commodities or in like options and futures or. I don't know because I don't know. They don't have a lot of direct equities. I mean they have that they've got that tracking thing. Yeah. But like who's buying the tracking.

Bryce: [00:18:17] They are what they are called dresses. Oh.

Alec: [00:18:20] Oh no.

Bryce: [00:18:21] Ideas or whatever. 

Alec: [00:18:22] It is. No. That's like when a Chinese stock is listed in the US through an alternate deposit peseta or whatever it's called. 

Bryce: [00:18:29] Yeah. Don't, don't see BOE do that.

Alec: [00:18:31] Maybe I thought they just did. They just tracked the ASX listed stock somehow. 

Bryce: [00:18:36] Right. Well he was saying a lot of the industry, the fundies really like the sabre guys. 

Alec: [00:18:42] Right. 

Bryce: [00:18:42] And the ASX is really battling with the reputation they had with chess. 

Alec: [00:18:47] Yeah. Stuff up there. Yeah. 

Bryce: [00:18:49] So it's down 22% but he said it's in the dog kennel, don't go, don't go near it. 

Alec: [00:18:53] I mean like some of the companies he said there, like Nick Scali has been a great company for a long time. Um, not a industry that gets me super excited, the furniture industry, but like you're picking a lot of companies that are just like, not great. Yeah. 

Bryce: [00:19:13] Well, this is the point. They're in the dog kennel and I think. 

Alec: [00:19:16] It's such an uninspiring way to go. I know.

Bryce: [00:19:21] I don't think I'll make any investments from this. I think I was clear with that last week. I'm just interested to see how. 

Alec: [00:19:26] This is how the Strategy plays out. 

Bryce: [00:19:28] Yeah, like for me, it's like visiting, for example, down 67%. They just see the capital raise. I think their stock is at about $0.70. That's a bit lower than that $0.49. They just do the capital themselves at $0.47. So that gives you an idea of where they think that valuation is. 

Alec: [00:19:45] That's not what they think their valuation is. That's where the market is willing to. 

Bryce: [00:19:51] That's what I mean. Also, interestingly, they abandoned the Sezzle deal. Remember that? 

Alec: [00:19:57] Yeah, I do remember that. 

Bryce: [00:19:58] Since then, Sezzle has actually performed better than zip. Um, I think Sezzle is actually up something like 1,000% in the last year or something off the back of that. Something crazy. Anyway, Calix is one that we have, we have spoken with Henry about before and was one of those stocks about a year ago that everyone was speaking about. It's down 35%, but nothing has changed a lot there. There's just no new news. Macquarie down, Bailer Doran down 22%. Great opportunity here called Henry about this as well. He thinks this is quite an interesting one. Heaps of cash on the balance sheet questioning whether it's a good opportunity for them to do a buyback. But just like we know after speaking with Paul, obviously their biggest holding is site minder. Interest groups is up for sale. They haven't exited it yet, but that could be a really good boost if it does happen. And obviously trading at a massive discount at the moment, which is how they run things. 

Alec: [00:20:59] I'm a Bailer shareholder.

Bryce: [00:21:02] So there are a couple of names I'm just going to keep an eye on. 

Alec: [00:21:04] Can I, can I just go back to Sezzle? You said it's up 1,000%. It did. It did a stock consolidation, a reverse 38 for one. 

Bryce: [00:21:13] They got 38. 

Alec: [00:21:14] Right. Let's not. So what that means is that for people who owned shares when it said it was in the 20 cent range Sezzle took four every 38 shares you had, they just gave you one and now it's another $25, right? Yeah. 

Bryce: [00:21:32] Yeah. Zip's an interesting one. We actually went and spoke with Larry Diamond, CEO while here in the States. He's obviously very bullish. He's a great guy to chat to.

Alec: [00:21:41] But yeah, like that's the thing with some of these guys like they built incredible businesses but the market got so ahead of its skis that now everyone is like, ah, it's terrible because they've come off so much. Yeah, but it's like if you just hadn't had the bull market of 2020 and 2021, it'd be like, Oh, it's an Aussie payments company expanding to the US, but like expected, share prices has such a signalling mechanism and you've got to keep up with the hype. Yeah, Yeah. 

Bryce: [00:22:13] So that's the list I'm going to keep an eye on. I just want to close out with two pieces of audio from our conversation last time. This is purely for the lithium lovers out there. On what Henry hopes is going to be a ten bagger.

Henry: [00:22:27] And then you look at a company, you know, we've been. I've been looking at a thing called Latin resources, which is another I am hopeful LRS is the stock stockholder which is in Brazil. Yeah. With a project called Salinas. And we've talked about catalysts before and I saw these guys present at a resource conference and a very sharply dressed, mild mannered CFO got up and made the presentation. He's been with the company for a couple of months. He lived in Brazil for three years, so he obviously spoke Portuguese, very mild mannered, very softly spoken, very confident, and he knew his stuff. He knew it inside out, backwards. And not the geology, not the but the funding, the finance, the potential. And he knew which buttons to push. And at the time now we were talking about Latin that eight or $0.09. A while ago, six months ago. So I looked at it for $0.13. You know, this is going to pop. And it went to 18 and it stuck there. So that's good. It's easy in some respects because he was talking about catalysts and timelines. You know, every time something happens with the miner and we've talked about this before, whether it's funding pre-feasibility, definitive or final investment decision, every step along the journey as a business, if it ticks the box, then it should be rerated. So for Latin, the next door neighbour is a company called Sigma, which had a 13 million tonne lithium deposit and then now got 105 million tonne lithium deposits, taking them four years to prove it up to that size. But in that four years the company has gone from worth tens of hundreds of millions to billions. And you can see the journey with Latin, which is to, you know, an upgrade in June. You can see that journey that time because they want to go from 13 to 18. And if they do, then the valuation will follow. Yeah. So it'll turn into a ten bagger from where? At the moment. I mean, it's got to take all the boxes and it's got to find 100 million tonnes and prove it off. But that in theory is the catalyst that you'll see along the long journey. 

Bryce: [00:24:30] So Henry is deep in the lithium scene, knows a lot about it at the time. Recording 15th of June. The rerating hasn't come, but it is coming this month. So if you're a Lithium fan out there, don't take this as investment advice. But there's just a little bit of insight from Henry. I did talk to him about it yesterday. He's super bullish, currently trading at $0.20. This is not investment advice. 

Alec: [00:24:51] No, no. Certainly one to add to the watch list if you are interested in the lithium space. 

Bryce: [00:24:56] Yes. Now, Ren, just to close out. 

Alec: [00:24:58] So just to summarise where you and Henry are at, it's basically like what are the worst companies and where the mining spec is. 

Bryce: [00:25:06] Dog kennels and the mining species?

Alec: [00:25:07] Yes. 

Bryce: [00:25:08] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, as I said at the top, as I said I think last week and I said 80% of my investing strategy here is not changing, it's the core. I have made a couple of other investments outside though, recently. What more Macquarie. I love Macquarie. 

Alec: [00:25:22] Not investment advice.

Bryce: [00:25:23] Not investment advice. I've done one from a stock tip that we've got here from the Equity Mates Community.

Alec: [00:25:28] I don't think you can say that otherwise.

Bryce: [00:25:30] I'm Not going to say what it is, but I mean it as some of the other guys. It's a resources company. I've also gone long on attack the Australian Technology ETF that I have ticking away, put a bit more in that and also a bit more in FAANG plus, which is just a more concentrated technology ETF. No taking away both of those not investment advice of course. So again, to close out here, we just come back from Berkshire and Warren Buffett's number one rule is don't lose money. And his second rule. 

Alec: [00:26:00] Invest in dogs and spec stocks. 

Bryce: [00:26:02] And his second rule is don't forget rule number one. Yeah. And so I just asked Henry what his thoughts on that were and how at our age should we or should we be thinking about capital preservation? Because my current investment strategy is long equities, ultra long, and I don't have like a capital preservation strategy, so to speak. Like I'm not I don't have a huge defensive part of my portfolio and I'm definitely not selling in and out. Like if I see a moment in time where I've got profit, I'm not trying to capture that. 

Alec: [00:26:35] But navies were like, That's not what he means. 

Bryce: [00:26:38] That's exactly what Henry said. 

Alec: [00:26:40] Okay, well. 

Bryce: [00:26:41] So let's just Close it out with Henry's thoughts on how we should be thinking about markets and capital preservation at our age. 

Henry: [00:26:49] I think you're thinking about it exactly right. You've got a long road in front of you. You're a young guy. And even if the worst happens and the market drops 25, 30%, you know, you still have years in front of you to recoup that. Not everything will drop. Buffett may have his rule about not losing money, rule number one and rule number two. But he also talks about buying a business. It doesn't matter if the stock market closes for five years. So he's looking through that short term volatility. So rule number one and rule number two are kind of hard. If the stock market closes for five years and the business is just still the business is a bit sort of contradictory there, I think your age, I think, you know, people starting out their investment journey, time is on their side. You know, as the Stones rightly pointed out, you can afford blips. And when you look back, even, you know, the biggest blip I saw apart from the GFC, which was a pretty big blip, was the 87 crash. It was a very for me that was a I was 25 when the 87 crash came up. And, you know, I didn't luckily I was relatively impoverished at the time, so I didn't actually have a lot of money in the market. But when you look on the big scale of things, you know, the 87 crash is a tiny little thing. We might look back in five years time and go, The Nvidia frenzy was just the biggest thing to hit the market since the GFC, but in the other way. So time is on your side. I think. You know, if you want to do capital preservation, there are ways to do it short term, but ultimately you're looking at the long term, you're looking at building wealth over 20, 30, 40 years rather than retiring in three years time. Yes, you can afford dollar cost averaging or whatever you want to call it, averaging down or just putting in that money over a long period of time, every month or every week or whenever you've got it, it works. Yeah. Why try and protect your capital when you're still in your twenties? 

Bryce: [00:28:55] I'm 32.

Henry: [00:28:59] Right. Yeah. Okay, let's change that. I would protect your capital at all costs because you haven't got that long. But your time should be concentrated on your business paying down the debts if you've got them. Students, whatever. Or mortgages if you can get one. Not that anybody can lose those, apparently. 

Bryce: [00:29:18] Well, I'm currently in the midst of trying to get one. I don't know if it's hellish out there. 

Alec: [00:29:24] Yes. 

Bryce: [00:29:25] Well, there you go again, as you said, by Doug Canales and Becky Suggs. 

Alec: [00:29:33] So I actually had a chat with Andrew, my mentor, this week. And just as a tease for an upcoming episode, we're not taking a different path to Bryce, and we did some work on valuation. He gave us a valuation methodology. Last time we chat, chatted and I actually went away and did some work and tried to do some back of the envelope valuations. I did it for a couple of companies. We only spoke about one on the podcast or we might publish it on our website, the others, but that's coming up in a future episode. 

Bryce: [00:30:04] Awesome. Love it. We'll stick around because next episode we're also bringing in Julian McCormack to get his views on where the market goes from here as we are now entering a bull market. So we'll leave it there. We'll pick it up next week.

Alec: [00:30:17] Sounds good. 

 

More About
Companies Mentioned

Meet your hosts

  • Alec Renehan

    Alec Renehan

    Alec developed an interest in investing after realising he was spending all that he was earning. Investing became his form of 'forced saving'. While his first investment, Slater and Gordon (SGH), was a resounding failure, he learnt a lot from that experience. He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can.
  • Bryce Leske

    Bryce Leske

    Bryce has had an interest in the stock market since his parents encouraged him to save 50c a fortnight from the age of 5. Once he had saved $500 he bought his first stock - BKI - a Listed Investment Company (LIC), and since then hasn't stopped. He hopes that Equity Mates can help make investing understandable and accessible. He loves the Essendon Football Club, and lives in Sydney.

Get the latest

Receive regular updates from our podcast teams, straight to your inbox.

The Equity Mates email keeps you informed and entertained with what's going on in business and markets
The perfect compliment to our Get Started Investing podcast series. Every week we’ll break down one key component of the world of finance to help you get started on your investing journey. This email is perfect for beginner investors or for those that want a refresher on some key investing terms and concepts.
The world of cryptocurrencies is a fascinating part of the investing universe these days. Questions abound about the future of the currencies themselves – Bitcoin, Ethereum etc. – and the use cases of the underlying blockchain technology. For those investing in crypto or interested in learning more about this corner of the market, we’re featuring some of the most interesting content we’ve come across in this weekly email.