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Summer Series: Booktopia Group Ltd (ASX: BKG)

HOSTS Alec Renehan & Bryce Leske|4 January, 2021

Welcome to the Equity Mates Summer Series of 2020 brought to you by Superhero.

Over 12 episodes we dive into some of Australia’s largest and most well-known companies, as selected by you, the Equity Mates community.

In this episode, we unpack Booktopia Group. Booktopia is Australia’s largest online book retailer (by market share approx. 6% by value of all book sales and 15% online book sales). In addition to books, they also sell eBooks, DVD’s, audiobooks, magazines, maps, calendars, puzzles, stationery, and cards. 

In each episode we look at:

  • A company summary
  • The industry
  • Their competition
  • The outlook and future plans
  • Key financials
  • Valuation

For some of the companies, we’ve been lucky enough to get access to the CEO, where we take some of the tough questions straight to them.

Superhero offers unlimited $5 trades on ASX-listed shares. For more information or to sign-up, head to their website here

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Bryce Leske: [00:01:28] Welcome to the Equity Mates Summer Series of 2020, brought to you by Super Hero, the newest broker in town offering five dollar flat fees and also zero dollar brokerage on all ETFs over the next 12 episodes. We're going to be diving into some of Australia's largest and most well-known companies as selected by the Equity Mates community. We'll be unpacking the company, its industry, the outlooks, and key financials. And in some instances, we'll also be taking the tough questions straight to the CEO to do this. As always, I'm joined by my equity buddy, Ren. How are you, bro? [00:02:00][31.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:02:00] I'm very good Bryce. I am both excited and a little nervous. [00:02:05][5.1]

Bryce Leske: [00:02:08] This one's got you all wobbly. [00:02:09][1.0]

Alec Renehan: [00:02:10] Why's that? Well, this is a company that on the date of recording is not actually listed on the date it's released. It will be listed. And so everything we say in the next twenty to twenty-five minutes may become outdated very quickly, depending on how the company lists and how it runs in December. [00:02:30][19.9]

Bryce Leske: [00:02:30] Yes, yes. Well, look, we are lucky enough to be able to be speaking about this prelaunch and also getting access to the CEO of Book Topia as well. So keep your eyes and ears peeled for that interview. [00:02:44][13.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:02:45] What we really mean is it will be in your face when you're listening to this, hopefully, next to it in your face. Yes. So don't you don't have to keep your eyes straying too far from where you are right now. [00:02:55][9.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:02:56] Yes. We're talking about booktopia. As you would know, it is a book retailer. So the way that we're going to be doing this episode is, as always, we're going to be doing a bit of a company summary. We're then going to look at the industry more broadly and some of its major competitors will have a look at the outlook and future plans. But as I said, we're going to be speaking with the CEO. So we will be taking some of the questions directly to him, having a look at the financials and potentially a valuation, depending on how this episode plays out. As always, again, a massive thank you to Will. He has helped us and has done an incredible job with the analysis and research for this. He is an Equity Mates community member. So Will, thank you very much for your help on this one. So, Rhen book TOPIA. Yes. Australia's largest online book retailer by market share, approximately six percent of all book sales and 15 percent online book sales. So in Australia. In Australia, yeah. In addition to books, they also sell e-books, DVDs, audio books, magazines and interestingly, Puzzle's stationery and cards as well. They dabble in a few, I guess, supplementary products to the books. It was established in 2004 by CEO Tony Nush on a marketing budget of just ten dollars a day. That's pretty impressive and has since grown very rapidly to 310 full time employees and ships over six and a half million items. So, look, it's a company that we have been aligned with for some time with Equity Mates. In 2015, they acquired Angus and Robertson bookstores and in 2020, the university co-op bookstores, which we're very familiar with back in our DIREN did [00:04:34][98.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:04:35] it never went for the university call bookshop. [00:04:37][2.1]

Bryce Leske: [00:04:38] That is not true. [00:04:39][0.7]

Alec Renehan: [00:04:41] I will take the title now and now. [00:04:43][2.5]

Bryce Leske: [00:04:43] They are known for their technology and they boast a state of the art automated distribution center in Lidcombe, Sydney, so very much that Amazon style with capacity to stock three times their current facility and the capacity to ship 60000 items per day. So it's good to see that they're placing themselves pretty well against the likes of Amazon. And I guess those other large specialist online retailers. If you're not positioning yourselves to compete with them, then you may as well walk away. [00:05:10][27.0]

Alec Renehan: [00:05:11] Yeah, yeah. Last thing about the company summary. They launched an in-house publishing division in twenty nineteen. So I think from that company summary there's a few key takeaways for me. First of all, the market share the fact that they have six percent of all book sales and fifteen percent of online book sales, and they're the largest online book retailer in Australia. One just tells me how fragmented the industry is that there's no really dominant players if six percent makes it the largest and then to the in-house publishing division is an interesting one. It indicates that they're looking to vertically integrate. And, you know, the traditional book market is there's an author that writes a publisher that editors and publishers that a bookseller that then sells it and each of them capture some of the value along the way. And it feels like Book Topia have realized that they want to try and get some of the value the publishers are traditionally getting. And so they're going to vertically integrate and move up that value chain a little bit, which makes a lot of sense. And it'll be interesting to see how that plays out and how they compete against the Simon and Schuster and the Penguins and the Alan and islands of this world. [00:06:20][69.4]

Bryce Leske: [00:06:21] I chose to publish and only. [00:06:22][1.2]

Alec Renehan: [00:06:25] It's going to be an interesting one, I've got a lot of thoughts on this company, but let's keep rolling. So covid has been a bit of a book bonanza. I think you could say as people were lock down, the online book retailers in particular enjoyed the combination of people buying stuff online rather than in-store and people having a lot of free time on their hands. [00:06:47][21.8]

Bryce Leske: [00:06:47] Yeah, yeah. So when the impact of covid on overall book sales, we saw a surge leading into March prior to Lockdown's an overall decline in April as bookstores closed, which you would obviously expect. But I think overall the first quarter of FCI 21 sales for books have grown four per cent compared to the previous quarter. So nothing too surprising. [00:07:09][22.4]

Alec Renehan: [00:07:10] Yeah, yeah, yeah. The decline was their stores, their store sales. Yeah, yeah. Because their stores were closed like everyone else. Yeah. The four percent doesn't feel like a huge number the first quarter of twenty one. So July, August and September of this year. But four percent is more than the overall book market is growing. And so I think that's a pretty natural segway into the industry context and some of its competitors. Yeah. So the overall Australian book market has remained pretty flat between 2015 and 2020. It's grown at an average annual rate of one point four percent. And so in that context, the four percent big is bigger. But the interesting thing and the thing that anyone who's looking at book topia as a potential investment really needs to pay attention to is while the overall market is relatively flat and basically growing at probably not even at the rate of population growth, but it's growing at one point four percent within that overall market. There are some significant shifts underway. And in particular, that's the online book industry and it's eating the physical book stores lunch. It grew at 15 percent between F.I. 19 in NY 20. So whilst the overall pie isn't growing, the respective shares of the pie between physical retailers and online retailers is really changing. And I mean, this is a story as old as time, really. You know, Amazon started as a book retailer and just was able to offer such a bigger range than the physical booksellers who are just constrained by the size of their store and the amount of shelf space they have. Are you familiar with Book Depository? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So when I was researching this company, Book Depository is owned by Amazon JS. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So not only did Amazon sell enough books through their own channels, but they also owned probably the next best well known bookseller. And the Book Depository was UK based, actually founded by an ex Amazon employee in 2004 and then was acquired by Amazon in 2011. And then Book Topia is obviously an online seller as well. And so they're taking market share from the physical retailers. But at the same time, Book Topia also owns Angus and Robertson, which used to be this is just me guessing, but I would I would have guessed the second biggest retailer after [00:09:29][139.3]

Bryce Leske: [00:09:30] had a lot of presence when we were younger. Yeah, I think they've shot a lot of stores. But anyway, rent to put some numbers to those sort of growth rates. And I found this surprising. In NY, 20 Australians spent approximately two and a half billion dollars on books, both physical and e-book. You're an e-book man on your Kindle. [00:09:48][18.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:09:49] This is the other trend that I want to get to. Yeah, yeah. Let's let's talk about this. [00:09:52][3.0]

Bryce Leske: [00:09:52] For 36 percent of those purchases being online, which translate to an online book market of just shy of a billion dollars in FY 20, much higher than I thought. Really? Yeah. The average household spends the average Australian household spends one hundred seventy seven dollars on books annually. Yeah. And I'm sure if you're a law student or an economics student that's due to law textbooks, go on because they're damn expensive. [00:10:16][24.4]

Alec Renehan: [00:10:18] Written by a lecturer at [00:10:19][1.2]

Bryce Leske: [00:10:20] the world's biggest stitch up, honestly. And you have to buy the newest edition every single year. [00:10:24][3.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:10:24] The average Australian household spends approximately one hundred and seventy seven dollars on books annually as a percentage. How much of that hundred and seventy seven jerrycan is read or how much of it is aspirational purchases that sit on a shelf and never actually get out [00:10:38][13.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:10:39] of the hundred and seventy seven? One hundred and fifty would be spent on the 3rd of January as a whole. [00:10:44][5.4]

Speaker 1: [00:10:45] I'm going to write a book about [00:10:45][0.7]

Alec Renehan: [00:10:47] the 3rd of January as a New Year's resolution or the 20th of December as an emergency Christmas present. [00:10:52][5.3]

Bryce Leske: [00:10:52] Yeah, definitely. Definitely. So you want to speak more about the preferences and trends that we're seeing here. And I'm certainly noticing the uptake in the Kindle and the e-book. So perhaps, you know, you want to touch on that a little. [00:11:05][12.8]

Alec Renehan: [00:11:06] Yeah, sure. So approximately 92 per cent of Australians are classified as readers. Only eight percent are classified as nonreaders. So you're in the vast minority and compare that to the US and the UK. The US, 27 percent of the population are. A nonreaders in the UK, 24 percent wow, in that 92 percent of readers in Australia, 90 per cent of Australians write physical books, 53 percent rate e-books and 12 percent rate audio books. Now, you may realize that those three those three numbers don't add up to 100 percent. It's just because it's not mutually exclusive. Yeah. I mean, speaking from personal experience, I read a Kindle and I'm a big fan of a Kindle, which will touch on the SEC. But I also buy the occasional physical book. The distribution of how many physical books, very how many e-books has changed a lot over the past decade. And it's very much weighted in the e-book favor at the moment. [00:12:02][56.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:12:03] Yeah, cost wise as well, it makes sense to go the Kindle route, but [00:12:06][2.7]

Alec Renehan: [00:12:06] why is convenience? It's Amazon make it so easy. Yeah. You just carry one little tablet around. Yeah. Yeah. [00:12:13][7.4]

Bryce Leske: [00:12:14] That's something I haven't gotten around to yet. For some reason I still like buying the solid book. [00:12:18][4.2]

Alec Renehan: [00:12:18] Really. Yeah. It's even just little things like the fact that it's backlit means that like you don't need a lamp or a light and stuff like that. [00:12:25][6.9]

Bryce Leske: [00:12:26] I mean there's many advantages and I'm sure I'll get around to it at some stage. But I just like having the book there as a reminder that I read it. [00:12:32][5.8]

Alec Renehan: [00:12:32] It's also like so I just bought Obama's book and it's like 720 pages. The fact that it's in a Kindle, you're not daunted by the size of it as much. You just read it half faster. You know, there is a percentage sometimes. But yeah, for me it's a better writing experience. But, you know, whatever floats your boat in terms of that distribution, though, in NY, 20, 86 percent of books purchased were physical books and 14 percent were digital books. So the market share for Kindles and other readers is still small in comparison to the overall ebook market. But you know that 14 percent was zero percent when one was Kindle launched in the mid 2000s. Yeah. So 20 years ago that number has grown. If my experience is anything to go by, will continue to grow. [00:13:18][46.0]

Bryce Leske: [00:13:18] Yeah. So in terms of the competitive landscape, when obviously it goes without saying the big global competitiveness, Amazon, who you said owns the Book Depository, you can also buy books through iTunes and Google Play. So no surprises that on a global scale, the big tech companies are playing in this space. But if we look more locally here in Australia, you've got the likes of DMX, which has very comprehensive book selection, some great stores to go into. I really love the one down on George Street in Sydney, cubed bookshops and a couple of others Burkle's, which I've never heard of. So a few competitors. But I think in an industry like this where everything is going online and that's where all the growth is coming from, to think about it, both domestic, just try and separate domestic. The international competitors is the wrong way to go about it. You're competing with Amazon? [00:14:07][49.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:14:08] Yeah, yeah. And this whole Australia's largest online book retailer is a little bit misleading when we think about it in that context, because it is true that it is Australia's largest online book retailer, but it is not the largest online book retailer in Australia. And that is an important distinction because Amazon has 70 percent market share. Yeah, it's just not Australia's. It is just in Australia. Yeah, yeah. Amazon is the I don't know what do they call it, a thousand pound gorilla. It is the it is the monster that is both dominating the sale of physical books and then also owns the market for e-books. There are other readers, but Kindle is, you know, Amazon Kindle and the dominant player for good reason. Yeah, yeah. So Equity Mates, before we talk about book topiaries, future plans, how they plan to grow and a few of their financials, we're going to take a quick break and hear from our sponsors. So we've covered off on what book topia does and where they sit in the industry of booksellers, both online and physical, as a newly listed company, they've obviously got big plans for their growth. So let's talk about what the future holds for book topia. And I think off the top, the main things to talk about are the industry's growth and where book topia fits into that. Because let's be honest, bookselling is a pretty old industry. What the printing press was invented in the fourteen hundreds and there's only so much innovation that can come. Like obviously e-books have been a big innovation book. Topia will get more efficient with the distribution channels and you know, they're warehousing and stuff like that. But really it feels like this is one of the companies that is pegged to the overall industry growth. And so the industry is forecast to be worth two point six billion in FY twenty one. So that'll be four percent growth, which is a little bit faster than it has grown over the last few years. I think a lot of that will be because of covid, according to some industry experts. One of the main things I look at in terms of the overall market for books and the growth of that is actually population growth, but specifically, population growth aged over 65 categories have more time to read? I guess so. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so they expect that population as a proportion of Australia's population to increase from about 15 percent to about 17 or 18 percent over the next few years. And so that should drive some more growth in the industry. And then the other, I guess, age group or category that they look at is students. And, you know, we touched on the fact that textbook sales are an absolute rule, but people have to buy it. The number of secondary and tertiary students is growing. Well, I guess barring what happens, we covered in international students, it's expected to continue to grow. And so that, again, should just drive not massive growth, but some growth in the overall market for books. So it feels like this is an industry that is slowly growing. And so if we think about some of the experts that we've spoken to this year, you know, I think about Nick Griffin from Munro Partners and how he looks for companies that are on the cutting edge of an industry that's undergoing massive disruption and has massive growth potential. This doesn't feel like an industry that is poised to 10x in size over the next 10 years or something. So the question then becomes in an industry that is not stagnant but is growing at a slow rate, for a company to be a really successful company, they need to take market share from other players. And so the question then becomes, how does Topia intend to do that? How do they compete with the physical retailers, but more importantly, the Amazons and the book depositories of the world. [00:17:50][222.0]

Bryce Leske: [00:17:50] And then it comes down to, I guess, how do you run your business? So if you think about, all right, well, we need to increase traffic to our website. We need to become more efficient with how we fulfill orders and get them out to customers so we can improve the, I guess, the underlying costs of running that part of the business. How can we sell more to people once they come to the website, improve conversion rates? How can we use technology to, I guess, provide recommendations for books to people that come to our website? So how can we leverage partnerships? I guess, of course they'd be looking at how they can build their publishing side of the business as well. So those, I guess, are the key things that you probably need to be thinking about when I guess analyzing book type strategy and how they're going to be taking market share away from Amazon, because there is no doubt Amazon equally going to be improving the way that they distribute books, utilizing the amount of data and AI that they've got to be recommending books to their customers. So bookshop, you're now playing with the big boys in that space. And it'll be interesting to hear from the CEO on how they intend to, I guess, capture more market share, particularly in the digital space. [00:18:57][66.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:18:58] Yeah, yeah. I think you touched on the main things that the company is talking about, their increasing website traffic, then improving the conversion rate on that website, traffic expanding further into the educational and corporate book sectors, investing in their distribution centers to increase efficiencies and improve their margins, drive partnerships such as the great partnership they've got with Equity Mates. Yes, further acquisitions will be an interesting one, building out their customer loyalty program and then expanding their publishing business as well. So they've got a few key tenants that they're chasing, you know, increased top line growth, reduce their costs, and then find ways to acquire or vertically integrate to find different revenue opportunities. But I think that leads neatly into the financials. And the story of their financials for me is a story of great top line growth. So over the last three years, their revenue has gone from 111 million to 130 million to one hundred and sixty six million. So that's good numbers. They are projecting a scratch, over two hundred million for twenty one. So if that if twenty one number comes off over the last four years. They've almost doubled their revenue, which is impressive for a retailer in a slow growing field. So I think, you know, when we were talking about the strategy being, if you're in an industry that is slowly growing, you have to take market share from other players and they're doing that. The problem becomes in how you turn that revenue into profit and the profit numbers haven't improved at the same rate or their net profit after tax is basically zero. So in NY 18, I did one point six million. EF1 19, they did zero. Exactly, FCI 20, they did 200 grand. NY twenty one. They expect to lose money, but I imagine a lot of that has to do with listing costs and stuff like that. So that might be a bit of an aberration. But if we look at ebada, which is their profit, but with interest, tax depreciation and amortization stripped out, it's gone from about four to five to seven and they expect it to go back to five and f twenty one. So the incredible top line growth and incredible revenue growth that they've seen isn't really reflected in the profit numbers as well. And this probably comes to my key reservation about the bookselling industry. And it's a question of unit economics. And I think I've said unit economics in every company taped Dove we've done so far. If you think about the unit economics of a book for every book that you want to sell as book topia, or if you're a physical book retailer like demarks or something like that, you incur the costs of bringing it into your warehouse and then distributing it to a customer or distributing it to a store and then selling that to a customer. And for every incremental sale you make, you incur an incremental cost with that. And so as your revenue scales, your cost scale and the most important thing becomes your profit margin on each unit and books, because it's such a highly competitive industry, because they're competing with the likes of Amazon physical books. The unit economics aren't spectacular digital books. It's another story. If you think about how Amazon distributes the Kindle books, they don't incur any of those costs of driving it to a warehouse ranging in their warehouse and then delivering it to a customer. They create the digital copy. Or I would expect that Amazon tell the publishers to pay to create a digital copy they hoisted on their website. And when I want to buy it, I click it and they deliver it digitally to my Kindle. And so the unit economics Amazon of selling digital books is just so much better because there's next to no incremental costs for every digital book they sell. And so for me, that is the key financial thing that the hurdle that book Tobii has to overcome is that they're faced with difficult unit economics compared to digital books. [00:22:51][232.9]

Bryce Leske: [00:22:52] Fascinating industry. And you're right, you can see why it's going to be important that they try and capture that digital market as quickly as possible and try and turn this profit story around. But look very much looking forward to speaking to Wayne Basken, who is the deputy CEO and chief technical officer or technology officer at Brooke TOPIA. So that episode should be available in your feed now, where we're going to ask him a lot more about this transition to the digital space. It is very hard to do a valuation on this one because it is not listed at the time of recording. However, the IPO is seeking to raise forty three point one dollars million at two point thirty per share. So once this episode's released, it would be interesting to see how it's trading. [00:23:36][44.1]

Alec Renehan: [00:23:36] Well, yeah, I mean, if you do a basic discounted cash flow, this is where the key problem with this kind of cash flows come in. The range of outcomes just differ so much based on your range of what assumptions you build in. So I'd like to give you an example. I've used eight million dollars as there a bidder number rounded up a little bit. Let's say they can reflect that revenue growth right into their bottom line, into their profit. Let's say they can grow at 20 percent annually for the next ten years like that feels highly, super optimistic. Let's say, let's say 20 percent for the next five years and then three percent after that discount rate of 10 percent, you get two hundred and thirty five million valuation. That feels high. But if you say they're going to grow at the rate of the overall market, they're going to grow their profit at three percent annually. It is kind of 10 percent. You get one hundred and eighteen million. So there's a pretty broad range of outcomes there. Yeah, for me, it's just that that profit nominates to grow. [00:24:31][54.5]

Bryce Leske: [00:24:31] Yeah, definitely. Again, a company that is not as profitable as we were hoping for the series. [00:24:37][5.4]

Alec Renehan: [00:24:38] it's, it gives us a basis to do a valuation. Yeah. But I mean like if you think about the two ways you make money as an investor, it's either from capital growth or from dividend yield basically. And if you can't find a way to turn that profit number into something that's growing, it becomes difficult to expect a lot of capital growth. And if they're not making much profit or they're not making any profit, they can't really pay much in terms of dividends. So that's my reservation. But I think it will be an interesting one to watch. Yeah, absolutely. Who knows, maybe Amazon will acquire it as they continue to, you know, acquiring everything. [00:25:11][32.5]

Bryce Leske: [00:25:12] Have a listen to our interview with Wayne, where we dig a little bit deeper on Buckcherry. But again, as always, good to chat. Stork's, thank you to the sponsor for this episode, which is superhero, Australia's newest and cheapest Parker in town offering five dollar brokerage flat fee and then also zero dollars for brokerage on all ETFs. So it's a pretty amazing offer. Head over there, superhero.com.au, you to sign up and check out the pretty amazing platform. To be honest, we're pretty impressed with it. Also, a big thank you to our Equity Mates community member, Will Bennets, who helped us with the research on this show. Very much appreciated. But until then, we'll chat next episode. [00:25:50][38.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:25:50] Sounds good. [00:25:50][0.0]

[1431.0]

More About

Meet your hosts

  • Alec Renehan

    Alec Renehan

    Alec developed an interest in investing after realising he was spending all that he was earning. Investing became his form of 'forced saving'. While his first investment, Slater and Gordon (SGH), was a resounding failure, he learnt a lot from that experience. He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can.
  • Bryce Leske

    Bryce Leske

    Bryce has had an interest in the stock market since his parents encouraged him to save 50c a fortnight from the age of 5. Once he had saved $500 he bought his first stock - BKI - a Listed Investment Company (LIC), and since then hasn't stopped. He hopes that Equity Mates can help make investing understandable and accessible. He loves the Essendon Football Club, and lives in Sydney.

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