WTF is a NFT and can I make money off them?

Adam Keily: [00:00:52] Hello and welcome to comedian versus economist. We demystify the world of money and help you get a handle on the bigger picture. My name is Adam and I'm joined, as always by my little older brother and real life economist. Thomas, How's it going? [00:01:05][13.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:01:06] Yeah, G'day Adam, how are we doing? [00:01:07][1.0]

Adam Keily: [00:01:08] Very well, thank you. Uh, big show today. Big show. We're talking job keepa and the end of job kaper. It's all coming to an end. Do you and your sound effects? I we've got equity markets behind us now. We've got this big podcast going on and you still insist on doing your own podcast. [00:01:26][18.4]

Thomas Keily: [00:01:27] So LowFi as a new HighFi [00:01:28][1.1]

Speaker 3: [00:01:29] life [00:01:29][0.0]

Adam Keily: [00:01:30] LowFi not the new HighFi. It might be, but that's not lo fi. That's just you making noises with your mouth. [00:01:35][4.9]

Adam Keily: [00:01:37] Don't forget, of course it did last night. You can go and find a link to the equity markets listener survey that we're running at the moment. And you can go into the draw for your chance to win 500 dollars of cold, hard cash. [00:01:51][13.9]

Thomas Keily: [00:01:53] Oh, now you're all about the sound effects. [00:01:54][1.3]

Adam Keily: [00:01:55] Oh, that was a good one, though. [00:01:55][0.9]

Adam Keily: [00:01:57] So go there, check it out. We'd love to hear your feedback. We'd love to hear what you're enjoying, what you're not enjoying. Find the link in the show notes or the description wherever you're listening to this podcast. So make sure you go check that out. But we are talking the end of job keeper Thomas. And oh, before we get started, I should point out I had some more listener emails coming this week, which we love. And don't forget, you can always email us CVA at equity markets, dot com or head over to the website. Equity markets, dot com forward slash CVT and ironer. Send us an email. And he's asking about the US government at the moment, printing crazy amounts of cash, as are most central banks all over the world. Fair to say crazy amounts of cash. And I just handed out fourteen hundred dollar stimulus checks to people, which seems like seems like a good idea. Everyone's pretty happy about that. But he's asking why if they can't just hand out fourteen hundred dollar stimulus checks, why can't they just print as much money as they like and give everyone a one million dollar check for the entire US population at a cost of around about 330 million sorry? Three hundred and thirty billion to cover the 330 million people? Surely the economy would be on a much stronger target than it currently is and they would have saved a couple of trillion dollars. So, look, as we like to do here on comedian versus economist, I'm going to take first crack at this. Tom, I know you're itching to answer this, but I'm no economist. But even I can say that if we give everyone a million dollars, then the next house on your street that goes up for sale is going to list at like a billion dollars plus or maybe like a hundred billion dollars. Inflation's just going to go through the roof. Is that is that the answer here? [00:03:45][107.3]

Thomas Keily: [00:03:45] Yes. That's a pretty good, pretty good step. I think it's largely a logistical question, just sending out massive checks for million checks. [00:03:55][9.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:03:57] I don't think the US postal system can handle that. [00:04:00][2.4]

Adam Keily: [00:04:00] No, Amazon could deliver them with drones. That would be cool. I'd love to see million dollar novelty checks being delivered [00:04:07][6.4]

Adam Keily: [00:04:07] by drones from Amazon. That would be amazing. Just flying out of the Pentagon. Uh, yeah. So, yeah. I mean, [00:04:16][8.5]

Thomas Keily: [00:04:16] yeah, it is a good part of the checks that are there. Not out yet. There are. I think they're on the way soon. That's getting signed into legislation pretty soon. [00:04:24][7.5]

Adam Keily: [00:04:24] I think Biden just approved it. [00:04:25][1.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:04:25] Proved it. Yeah. [00:04:26][0.4]

Adam Keily: [00:04:26] But over the weekend, any Friday maybe it really doesn't work weekends or that was Trump. [00:04:31][4.7]

Thomas Keily: [00:04:36] Yeah. Yeah. But I don't think it's as simple as Biden just approving and I think it still needs to get through. It's a bit of a complex process the way it gets through Congress. And I think some of the measures need like ten Republicans to come on board to get it through unless they tack it into a bill that's about the budget, in which case they just need 50 Democrats to approve it in the Senate or something. That is a little bit complex. [00:04:57][21.7]

Adam Keily: [00:04:58] How many people do you need to get something scientists to give everyone in the country? [00:05:01][2.9]

Adam Keily: [00:05:01] Fourteen hundred. Oh, no Red Cross talk. But yeah. [00:05:09][7.3]

Thomas Keily: [00:05:09] So this is I think it's it's in the trillion dollars like maybe one forget the at one point two one point nine dollars billion package that Biden signed into make. Is that on the way? And a centerpiece of that is sending out these checks to to to the American people. Yeah, and this is a big question about what people are going to do with this this money. So some people a lot of people think he might end up in the stock market. A lot of people, a lot of buy stocks, buy stocks here. A lot of people I know in the crypto community think that's a very bullish time for Bitcoin. They expect people to go all in. [00:05:44][35.0]

Adam Keily: [00:05:44] Course they do. That's what they do in the black community. They think it's a very bullish time for the crypto. Yeah, well, you say the. The same things are true about this stock investing community. [00:05:54][10.4]

Thomas Keily: [00:05:56] Yeah, and it is interesting, but it's the same story as the first stimulus checks that went out in 2020, like they seem to be largely banked. So people expand their savings, cash it bank and didn't really set a lot of people did spend a lot of it got saved rather than spent. So this is the same question we've got here in Australia. So savings have ballooned. Um, the cash it bank has skyrocketed since the covid stimulus started. The question is, what are people going to do with it? Are they going to go out and spend it on consumer goods? Are they going to invest it in stocks or is it going to become a deposit for a house or go into Krypto or whatever? So at the moment, households are sitting on the money and we're not sure. We don't have a signal about a clear signal about where it's going. And so this next round of stimulus checks, the same question like what's it going to do? [00:06:44][48.6]

Adam Keily: [00:06:45] So have we given out too much money then? Is that the case? Like, if so, we're talking now and you've said this a couple of times already, previous weeks. We're talking about people that have been given a lot of money through stimulus. But now we've got this massive savings deposit sitting in in people's hands that and people are talking about what are they going to do with all this money that I've got? [00:07:05][20.1]

Adam Keily: [00:07:05] Like, why don't we give them the money in the first place if everyone's going to save it and then and then maybe maybe buy stuff, maybe not that I know no one knows what they going to do with it, but now we've got all this savings. [00:07:18][12.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:07:19] Yeah. I mean, I think it was a very blunt policy instrument. So it wasn't like you think about like the job seeker, you know, it's a targeted measure. It's for people who are unemployed with certain asset thresholds. So it's a targeted measure. We're not trying to give away money to people who don't need it. Um, job keeper and some of these other things. There wasn't that eligibility test, too, on the receiving side, same as the US stimulus checks. There are no eligibility criteria. You just got to have a heartbeat and you get a check. And so to that necessarily means you're going to be giving money to people who don't actually need it. Yeah, same story. Like I like we get a hundred dollar voucher to go out to dinner somewhere and then one hundred dollar. [00:08:07][47.9]

Adam Keily: [00:08:07] Yeah, we got that in South Australia as well. The great state vouchers. Yeah, it was amazing. We stayed in a hotel for a dollar [00:08:13][5.7]

Thomas Keily: [00:08:13] year but [00:08:14][0.4]

Adam Keily: [00:08:14] Yeah. Which is about what I normally pay. But the hotel was much nicer this time the whole night last night Ali than I was. I'm a married man. My wife doesn't like staying hourly, uh, with life with kids. She's going to do it. Yeah. Yeah true. We digress. [00:08:40][25.9]

Thomas Keily: [00:08:41] Yeah but so yeah. So I received that check but I like as an economist I've never been busier like it's it's twenty twenty was the biggest, you know, year for me that I've had. So I didn't need those measures. But it's logistically very difficult to set up some kind of mechanism that that sniffs the people who do need it from the people who don't [00:09:04][23.1]

Adam Keily: [00:09:05] write is off often talk about you hear the term means tested when it comes to to, you know, child rebates or childcare rebates or anything. Like people often want to talk about things being means tested and you just end up in this quagmire of kind of haves and have nots. And who should get this? And if you do this, then you don't get any of this. And if you do this kind of work, then you don't get any of this benefit. And so is that just kind of is that part of that then the rush to get this out that they just go, look, let's just give it to everyone. We're going to kind of, you know, we'll give it to some people that don't need it, but we'll give it to the people that do need it. And everyone's happy. [00:09:41][36.5]

Thomas Keily: [00:09:42] Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I think it is a bit like that. I mean, it's also the popularity of a universal check mailed out the vote winner. So different vote winner. Not many people are against that scheme. But it's also like also like [00:09:58][15.6]

Thomas Keily: [00:09:58] the key thing you're trying to do is not necessarily support individuals through a tough time, but stimulate the economy. And so giving people money goes into the economy and therefore stimulates the entire economy. People get the checks they spend, that the businesses have money they play that pay their suppliers and it energizes the whole economic system. So that's really the key intention. Rather than supporting individuals, it's about energizing the economy. [00:10:26][27.8]

Adam Keily: [00:10:27] Yeah. Which in turn supports individuals and supports the community. So we're kind of splitting hairs there, are we? [00:10:34][6.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:10:34] Yeah, but it's sort of the argument, why are you giving money to people who don't really need it? It's like, well, it's okay because they're going to spend it and now it. Yeah. And it's like the entertainment vouchers or whatever like it's we get a benefit because I get a night out. But the venue that I go spend the money, the voucher at, they benefit. From it, so [00:10:52][17.8]

Adam Keily: [00:10:53] I saw a post the other day on social media somewhere talking about was it the velocity of money, talking about how quickly it passes through the community like if you if I spend ten dollars at the hairdresser and then the hairdresser then goes to a bar and spends that ten dollars there and that's a is that actually a true economic? Because it had the word I don't know, I had some little blurb underneath on Instagram somewhere saying this is a real economic term. And I was like, ah, well, find out about that. I'll ask my brother, The Economist. [00:11:22][29.4]

Thomas Keily: [00:11:24] That's a true thing. That's legit. [00:11:25][1.7]

Adam Keily: [00:11:26] That's not just clickbait. [00:11:27][1.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:11:28] Uh, yeah. No, that's true. That's true. That's a real thing we talk about in economics. It's not really widely studied like it doesn't seem to you can't really influence it and it doesn't seem to react to the cycle. I think from memory, it's kind of like it's just the thing [00:11:43][15.2]

Adam Keily: [00:11:45] that's so much of economics is it's just some things that we like to read about. Yeah. [00:11:50][5.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:11:50] Like I mean, I was at the RBA for six years and I don't remember anyone once talking about the velocity of money. I studied it. [00:11:57][6.9]

Adam Keily: [00:11:57] It says all of them. I mean, no one was buying anything. The first one proposed the idea said, well, look, when I go to the shops and I buy coffees for everyone and I was like, well, buying coffees and apologies to anyone who works at the abbey, I don't know if that's what it's really like, but that's what I that's the little visual that I have in my head of places like, [00:12:23][25.7]

Thomas Keily: [00:12:24] Yeah, but now with the question which is interesting, what is your point about inflation. It's true. So one of the other ideas about. So rather than giving it to individuals directly and then putting it into programs like infrastructure spending or upgrading highways or something like that, you're still putting the same money into the economy. But what you're trying to do is sort of diffuse the spread of it rather than concentrating it in individual sectors or individual hands. So if you give it to consumers and to households, there's a kind of quite a small segment of things that they can spend it on because that's what the household spend stuff on. They might buy consumer goods or that might invest it or save it like there's a limited number of options. They're not going to get together and pool their resources and build a highway. Mhm. And because there's a limited number of things that it's going on, if all the money went there, as you're saying, it would just jack up the prices of those, those set things, that, that's a number of things. And so you would see massive house price inflation, you'd see the cost of used cars going through the roof, all those sorts of things. Yeah, because you're concentrating the flow of money too tightly. And so so part of the stimulus package and you see it in where the Biden administration sending this money, it's spread right out. Some of its targeted specific sectors like the art sector that has been hit really hard by covid, but then otherwise it's just trying to sort of broadly spread it out through the economy. And I think the idea is, if you can do that broadly, diffuse the money, you still get the broad overall economic uplift, but you don't create you don't overheat specific sectors. [00:14:05][101.4]

Thomas Keily: [00:14:06] Right. [00:14:06][0.0]

Adam Keily: [00:14:06] I'm just rereading Aaron's question here. I hope we haven't mis misunderstood it. I'll just read it word for word. So more than with the US government printing crazy amounts of cash to cover nineteen more than three trillion dollars, why did they not just send a one million dollar check for the entire population instead of the 4500 dollars only certain people receive with the US population? Ren Ren 30 million. That would have come to three hundred and thirty billion. But so where's the three trillion dollar figure come from it? He's he's saying [00:14:36][29.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:14:37] that's. Yeah, that's not the checks. That's the total spending package. Right. That's supporting the economy. So some of that you're upgrading roads and grants for the arts sector. [00:14:48][10.4]

Adam Keily: [00:14:48] So he's not actually suggesting to send a million-dollar check to each person in the country? [00:14:55][6.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:14:55] I think that's what he's saying. So I think what he's saying is rather than the government spending money on programs like roads or schools or hospitals or. Right, right. Why not just and spend three trillion dollars, why not just send everyone a million dollars and it comes to three hundred billion, which is, you know, a tenth of the price. You save money. [00:15:13][17.7]

Adam Keily: [00:15:14] But and as you say, then people aren't going to go out and buy a highway. So then those things will lose that infrastructure or lose out. That being said, if everyone if cars started costing our houses, started costing the same price as a highway, I'd be seriously tempted to buy a highway and rename it the Adam Highway. OK, if you could pick up a highway for the same price as a used car, something that up. [00:15:51][37.1]

Adam Keily: [00:16:28] Thomas, we're talking the end of job keeper on comedian versus economist, and I think the question on everyone's lips is when job keepr ends at the end of March, is the whole world going to explode? [00:16:39][10.9]

Thomas Keily: [00:16:41] Whoo! [00:16:41][0.0]

Thomas Keily: [00:16:41] Yeah, well, uh, no, I think is the short answer probability. I can give you a 95 percent confidence interval around that 95 percent. Uh. No, I mean, we didn't see COVID coming. [00:16:54][13.0]

Adam Keily: [00:16:55] So, you know, chances there is I'm giving anything a five percent chance at the moment. [00:16:59][4.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:16:59] But, yeah, it's a real concern. There's at last count, I think there's over nine hundred thousand people on job keepa. Yeah. Um, so yes, a lot. That's a lot. [00:17:09][9.3]

Adam Keily: [00:17:09] That's a let's call it. Let's let's rally on economists like to round up, let's call it a million million people on job paper at the moment and we're going to just pull the rug out from underneath that million people knowing that that's what. [00:17:20][10.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:17:20] That's the plan. That's the plan. That's the plan. Going to let them fend for themselves is the idea. [00:17:25][5.3]

Adam Keily: [00:17:26] It doesn't seem like the most correct thing to do. [00:17:28][1.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:17:33] Well, I think I think the idea here is that the economy has been tracking pretty well, has been bouncing back pretty quickly. And I think the hope is that the majority of those will that their employers will just keep them on and that they'll give up the job, keep a subsidy, which the job gives you. As we remember, Blake will pay it pays employers to pay their employees. Mm-hmm. And so they're going to the government's going to take that away from the employer employers. They still have that employment relationship in place. And the hope is that employers will look into the future and think, yep, it's worth keeping the staff on. Uh, things are coming, getting back to normal. I'll keep paying my staff and keep them in the job. And of that nine hundred thousand, most of them will hang onto they hang onto their jobs. [00:18:25][51.7]

Adam Keily: [00:18:26] When you say most, how many are we talking of that million, by the way, we rounded up, remember. [00:18:29][3.5]

Thomas Keily: [00:18:30] Oh, okay. Yeah. [00:18:31][1.0]

Thomas Keily: [00:18:32] Um, well it's probably more like nine hundred thousand. Uh, okay. Let's call that because it was nine hundred and sixty thousand in January and it's probably is probably come down because it's been on the way down. So in the third quarter of twenty twenty that was the peak we had a million businesses were on the job keeper program and three point six million employees. Wow. We're receiving shopkeepers a lot. Yeah. Yeah. It's a lot like a labor force of sixteen million or something. So it's a decent whack of the labor force was on job keepa at the peak. Right. [00:19:06][33.9]

Adam Keily: [00:19:06] And that was always the thing, the deal with job Kaper wasn't it was that it wasn't wasn't that people lost their jobs, the government just stepped in to essentially to the as you said, they kept the relationship with the employer. They kept the job, in a sense, kind of been like on hold almost. And the government stepped in to pay them job keeper while the employer couldn't afford to pay them their normal, their normal salary or their normal job. [00:19:34][27.2]

Thomas Keily: [00:19:34] Yeah, that's right. [00:19:35][0.6]

Adam Keily: [00:19:35] That's right. There's a fair [00:19:36][0.9]

Thomas Keily: [00:19:36] summary. Yeah, yeah. Yep. And the idea is that the Cobra was a temporary shock. But if people lose that employment relationship, if that gets severed, it takes a long time to repair because work cost businesses because they've got to let go staff, pay redundancies, all of that story. Um, but then on the other side, then they've got to go through a hiring process and that takes time and money and is slow to get going again. So the idea is, is it covered is a temporary shock. So just to get us over the hump, the government will take on the payroll and will keep people employed, keep people in their jobs. [00:20:11][34.9]

Adam Keily: [00:20:12] It was a big call, wasn't it? Like at the time. [00:20:14][1.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:20:15] Big call. [00:20:15][0.3]

Adam Keily: [00:20:16] Big call to kind of go. This is this is the plan. We're going to step in here and and fund essentially people's wages and some in some cases for a period of time for a kind of for at the time it was. Like, when did they initially say it was going to end, it wasn't March this year, was it was kind of they kept reviewing it, didn't they? [00:20:36][20.4]

Thomas Keily: [00:20:36] Yeah, October, I think. Who initially was the mayor in October 2010. Who was when initially it was six months after. Yeah. Initially it didn't [00:20:45][8.7]

Adam Keily: [00:20:45] work. If it didn't work, that was a lot of money down the drain. [00:20:49][3.9]

Thomas Keily: [00:20:50] Yeah. They had they had to, they had to take a shot. And I don't think I think they'd have to say they're pretty happy with how it turned out, like cos a lot of money but it did what it meant to do. It kept people in their jobs and it sort of naturally been winding up much more quickly than expected as well. Like, like most things in the economy is recovering much more quickly than expected. So at the end of twenty, there were five hundred thousand businesses, half as many businesses on job keepa as they were at the peak and one point six million employees. So that was well down as well from three points six at the peak, down to one point six by the end of the year, down to nine hundred thousand now, more or less. [00:21:29][38.7]

Adam Keily: [00:21:29] So it's naturally kind of winding back. It's not going to be the shock that it would have been in October last year if they'd if that ended it, then it would have been there. I say catastrophic, really, because the roles weren't there to go back to. You know, there's still a lot of lockdowns happening. There was border closures. There was all that sort of stuff. Yeah. And we're not out of the woods by any stretch. You know, um, there's been a few flare-ups just the last couple of days. So is that a concern? I mean, is a concern there that the Kovel sort of kicks off again, we get a third wave or fourth wave or whatever it is, and and we have to bring them back. [00:22:05][36.7]

Thomas Keily: [00:22:06] I mean, I guess it's always a possibility. I mean, it seems it seems now that the states are able to manage these outbreaks reasonably well. They don't they don't seem to be able to get away from us. Not not since the first sort of Melbourne outbreak since then. Since then, there've been a few little flare-ups. But have we seem to have get on top of them pretty quickly now? Yeah. So we're always looming. I hope it's not. Yeah. We're not out of the woods just yet. No. [00:22:32][26.1]

Adam Keily: [00:22:33] So we talk about jobs that are that are coming back. Are they are they all jobs that existed pre covid that they're all coming back. Are we seeing new jobs being created in the market. [00:22:44][11.5]

Thomas Keily: [00:22:45] Yeah. Which I think we are seeing new jobs. Yeah, definitely. We're definitely seeing job creation. So there were job losses. We did lose a lot of jobs during covid. There were people even with the job keepa offer on the table, a lot of businesses decided to let staff go. And so full-time employment is still lower than when it was at pre-covid. So the economy hasn't regained all the full time jobs than it lost. So but we're where most of the way back now, we're probably not far off equal pegging, right? Um, yeah. But those were jobs that were lost and the jobs that have come back then. New jobs. [00:23:23][37.8]

Adam Keily: [00:23:24] Right. So what kind of number are we talking then? If we if we lost count we in January, what do you say. Nine hundred and sixty thousand by the end of March when we switch off job keeper. How many how many jobs are still kind of left unaccounted for? [00:23:40][15.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:23:40] There's an interesting there's an interesting data point in the labor force survey which asked people, are you working zero hours for economic reasons. Mm. [00:23:49][9.2]

Thomas Keily: [00:23:50] And that I'm certainly never going to be working zero hours for any economic reason. [00:23:55][5.2]

Adam Keily: [00:23:59] what does that mean? What does that mean. Working zero hours. [00:24:00][1.5]

Thomas Keily: [00:24:02] Not working. [00:24:02][0.3]

Adam Keily: [00:24:03] Right. Yeah. For the economists I'm working zero hours. [00:24:07][4.5]

Adam Keily: [00:24:08] It's not working. I've got a job, I'm between jobs. I even have done between jobs as some kind of weird way of saying that I don't have a job at the moment. Like, what are we saying? Zero, I'm not doing dry July. I'm just going to drink zero because I'm just. [00:24:23][15.2]

Thomas Keily: [00:24:26] Now, what that measure aims to capture is people who had a job, but in the survey week, so the labor force data comes from a survey that goes out to a bunch of households and ask them questions. Did you work this week? How many hours did you work? What industry were you working in? That sort of thing? Um, were you actively if you weren't working, were you actively looking for work? But we're taking a snapshot of a particular week in time. The zero hours for economic reasons aims to capture people who weren't working, but they weren't out looking for another job because they had a job. They just weren't working that week because maybe that was they were rostered off. So maybe they would fly in fly out worker that had two weeks on, one week off, that one week off, like I'm not working. But it was for economic reasons as part is that there's a sort of it's part of my job arrangement to [00:25:19][52.8]

Adam Keily: [00:25:19] be if I wasn't if I was on leave, would that would I can it if I had a sick day? [00:25:24][5.0]

Thomas Keily: [00:25:26] I think I think I'm not sure exactly about the details. I think I think holidays is a separate story, but I'm not sure. But yeah. And I don't I don't think so. No, I don't think leaving holidays counts. [00:25:38][11.8]

Adam Keily: [00:25:39] Right. Fair enough. [00:25:40][0.6]

Thomas Keily: [00:25:40] Mhm. Um but so, so there's this measure of zero economic, zero hours for economic reasons and the idea that, that gives us an indication of the job keeping numbers because that spiked when job keeper came in and has since come back down, but that's currently around 100000 right now. [00:25:59][18.6]

Adam Keily: [00:26:00] So if you're on job, keepa right now you would be considered working zero hours for economic reasons. [00:26:06][6.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:26:07] Is that is that if you're not working, this is where it gets a bit tricky. This is a lot of people on job keepa. Well, this is this is a lot of people on job keepa who are still working or showing up and doing something. And the idea is if the weather on job keep it and they're still got useful things to do, then it's likely that their employers will go on. They're doing useful stuff. I'm going to keep them on. Right. Um, but there's some there's many people who were on job keeper and the bosses said, look, no one's in the cafe. Don't even bother coming in. Yeah. [00:26:35][28.0]

Adam Keily: [00:26:36] What about what about my mates who are on job paper and just out doing cash jobs. [00:26:41][4.8]

Adam Keily: [00:26:48] Where do they where do they fit in. [00:26:50][1.7]

Thomas Keily: [00:26:50] Uh, it's always a gray area. [00:26:53][2.8]

Thomas Keily: [00:26:57] I think there are a lot of people who, uh. Yeah. Part apartment if they're working part-time for the employer. And then they picked up a job keeper and then didn't have any they had flexibility to then go and pick up a second job. Mhm. Um, and I think, you know, some people definitely would have done that. Yeah. Definitely did. Mhm. But yeah. But anyway that one hundred thousand points to the idea that there are some people out there who are on job, keepa who don't really have anything to do that their employer doesn't have anything to, for them to do. And the idea is that once job keeper winds up, the employers is going to go, look, it's not working. I've got nothing for you. I can't keep you going. You'll have to let you go. [00:27:34][36.2]

Adam Keily: [00:27:34] So is that when we talk about 100000 there, that's talking sort of 100000 on top of the base kind of unemployment that we would normally have like. So I'm thinking like pre covered. For example, if we had a million people unemployed, then now we've got like a million, um, and one hundred thousand people unemployed because covid has had an impact on some industries and businesses and it's taken away those jobs. [00:28:01][26.4]

Thomas Keily: [00:28:02] Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, yeah. I mean in terms of the end of job, can we say that when it winds up at the end of the month, it's probably going to put 100000 people into unemployment? Right. That that's probably the best guess at the moment. That sounds like a lot. And it is for a tough story for those people. But at the national level, it's not a huge number. So you think about like in the February labor market report, we added 30000 jobs full and part time jobs. So and that's probably that's pretty standard. So if we're adding 30000 jobs a month, we're going to chew up that 100000. We've got to find jobs for them in three to six months, you'd think. So it's going to be a bit of a bump. But we sort of we're creating jobs at a pretty decent clip. And the labor market has come back pretty strongly because the economy has come back strongly. So they didn't like in the labor force quarterly survey, there's like two hundred and fifty four thousand vacancies open right now [00:29:01][59.1]

Adam Keily: [00:29:01] because I think that's the thing. Like we don't want to I think we don't we don't want to make sure that we don't trivialize the 100000 people who are going to be left without work at the end of the job paper. Like that's significant. And, you know, like I haven't spent a lot of time out of work, but when I first moved to Adelaide, for example, you know, I was out of work and I was looking for jobs and I was getting knocked back from. Job after job, and that can be pretty tough and I can you know, that's pretty tough on anyone who's in that situation, who's lost work, especially if you've got things like dependencies and, you know, dependents and mortgages and all those kinds of things. And I think, you know, we want to be making sure that we're not trivializing that. But, yeah, because it can be you know, it can be kind of. Yeah, can be hard, I think, for people, so, you know, we certainly don't want to make light of that, but that's good. I guess if there are more jobs being created and hopefully, hopefully that number will keep coming down or maybe even unemployment would drop even a bit further. But because I think isn't the risk here then that we talk about people with all with lots of savings, like we're saving as a nation more than ever at the moment, we got all this money pent up and we joked about spending it on investing in stocks and whatever. But is the risk here that the people with all the savings from Job Kaper or whatever? They're not the sort of vulnerable ones, right, like there is still, you know, the risk here is that most of the 100000 or whatever, you know, they're the people that were depending on job keeper. And, you know, is there a risk that we're leaving the most vulnerable, kind of unsupported? [00:30:30][89.1]

Thomas Keily: [00:30:31] Yeah, I mean, that's kind of the feature of capitalism more than a bug, right? I mean, it's just that that's just sort of how wealth works, the way we design things and the industries where we're job is sort of most active and that is probably going to find the toughest are sort of like arts and recreation, hospitality, the transport sector like they're typically the places where wages aren't particularly high or employment relationships aren't super stable, says more casual work, part time work, that sort of thing. And so those people going losing job keep and who aren't going to stick around are probably in industries that, you know, they're probably not people with large savings pools or, you know, asset bases to draw on. [00:31:25][53.3]

Adam Keily: [00:31:25] Yeah. So I think. Yeah. So are we likely then to see an uptick in job seeker like is job seeker still staying around? I mean, that's that that's the government's what are they used to call it, the dole or whatever you want to call it. Yeah, that's that's the new that's that's what it is. If you're out of work and looking for work is job seeker. So are we going to see an uptick in job seeker as a result of the end of job keeper. [00:31:46][21.0]

Thomas Keily: [00:31:48] There's a decent chance. It's a decent chance, yeah. I mean, interesting stat on job seeker. We have the with the job seeker supplement ending, we now have the lowest unemployment benefits in the OECD relative to the median wage. [00:32:02][13.6]

Adam Keily: [00:32:03] That doesn't sound like a good thing. [00:32:04][0.9]

Thomas Keily: [00:32:05] It's not. It's not that's not something to be super proud of. I don't think that interesting fact. [00:32:10][5.2]

Adam Keily: [00:32:11] We bumped that up a bit. If you listenings Gomo tip from comedian. [00:32:15][4.1]

Adam Keily: [00:32:17] Yeah. [00:32:17][0.0]

Adam Keily: [00:32:18] Given the form of the minimum wage, not a minimum wage. Minimum welfare payment. Mhm. Yeah. And pension as well. We're there to [00:32:26][8.5]

Adam Keily: [00:32:28] give everyone a leg up. Oh. Why would we stop a job. The million dollars for everybody. Everyone and make it so. All right. [00:32:40][11.9]

Adam Keily: [00:32:40] Good solving all solving the world's problems on Corellian versus Economist. That does, that does bring us to the end though for this week. We hope you've enjoyed listening to the show. Don't forget you can email us cve@equitymates.com Or head over to the website at equitymates.com/cve. We are brought to you by equity mates media. And don't forget that equity mates media have a ton of podcasts. Now, Bryce and Alec, of course, have got their two great podcast Get Started Investing as well as Equity Mates Investing podcast. Make sure you check out. There's still a pretty new podcast meet pay love with Carmel and Zoe as they aim to break down gender roles and stereotypes around money and kind of get the conversation going around relationships and money. So, yeah, but once again, thanks for listening to comedian versus economist and we'll catch you next time. [00:32:40][0.0]

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