In this episode we sit down with the former Australian Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister, Wayne Swan. As Treasurer from 2007 to 2013, Wayne witnessed first-hand the devastation of the Global Financial Crisis and testament to his management, Australia was one of the only developed countries to avoid falling into recession. We sat down with Wayne to discuss what he is seeing in the global economy at the moment and to get his thoughts on some of the big financial topics of 2018. In this episode you will learn: • The two biggest themes Wayne is watching in 2018 • How Wayne thinks about money in politics and what can be done to limit its effect • Wayne’s outlook on China • The reforms Wayne wants to see for the Australian housing market • Wayne’s thoughts on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies Stocks and Resources Discussed: • The 0.01 Per Cent: The Rising Influence of Vested Interests in Australia – Wayne Swan • John Curtain’s War: The coming of war in the Pacific and reinventing Australia – John Edwards • Democracy in Chains: The deep history of the radical right’s stealth plan for America – Nancy MacLean • Shane Oliver’s Insights – AMP Capital • Bill Evan’s Author Page – Westpac
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Bryce: [00:01:29] Equity Mates, Episode 31, great to be back, as always, very excited to be here. It's been another good weekend here up in Sydney. As always, I'm joined with my equity buddy Ren. How are you going? [00:01:42][12.9]
Alec: [00:01:42] I'm very good. Bryce. It's been pretty chilly weekend down here in Melbourne, but what better way than to settle down inside with a cracking podcast? [00:01:51][9.5]
Bryce: [00:01:52] Exactly. And don't we have that episode for you? [00:01:54][2.4]
Alec: [00:01:55] I'm very excited about this one. [00:01:57][1.4]
Bryce: [00:01:57] Yes. This one we've had in the pipeline for a while. And we were lucky to sit down with Wayne Swan last week and discuss about what themes and predictions are coming in 2013. From his point of view, he's just about to write or he's probably finished an essay about what is to come in 2019 from an economic point of view. So we were lucky enough to go through a few of the things that he discussed. So for those that are unaware, Wayne Swan is an Australian politician. He was actually the deputy prime minister of Australia and the deputy deputy leader of the Labour Party from 2010 to 2013. And he was also the treasurer of Australia from 2007 to 2013. So he has a wealth of experience. And we were able to pick his brains about everything from the GFC in 2009 and how he handled that as the treasurer of Australia through to what we think what he thinks he's going to tell me in 2018. So it was a very enjoyable conversation. Would you agree, Ren? [00:03:07][69.9]
Alec: [00:03:08] Yeah, definitely. We should note that we tried to bite him into making a big prediction with our first question, and he shot it down straightaway. So we out for that, but not listen to his take on some really interesting topics from China to Bitcoin, from Australian housing to income inequality. And right at the end, I know a little bit too late for this, but he makes a prediction about Barnaby Joyce. So we should have realised that earlier this week. I'm thinking. [00:03:43][35.1]
Bryce: [00:03:43] I know. Anyway, so we're excited to bring this one to you guys is before we get stuck in, do you want to mention anything else? Ren. [00:03:53][9.5]
Alec: [00:03:53] Yeah, definitely. So the annual Warren Buffett letter to shareholders was released overnight. Huge. Yeah. And it's obviously a big deal for investors to read what the great man himself is thinking. So you don't have to find it yourselves. We're going to be including it as the first link in thought starters tomorrow morning. So, yeah, what if you listen to this, make sure you sign up to thought starters. If you're listening to this and it's past Monday, you can check out old editions of thought starters at Equity Mates dot com slash thought starters, where you can read Warren Buffett's twenty seventeen letter and a lot of other interesting articles. [00:04:34][41.2]
Bryce: [00:04:35] And for those that are new to the show, Ren, welcome. And also, can you just give a brief rundown on what tostadas is? [00:04:41][6.3]
Alec: [00:04:42] Yes, I thought status is a weekly email to your inbox of five interesting and thought provoking articles that are loosely based on investing. So, yeah, they're not always going to be finance heavy. They're just going to be things that have taken our interest and things that we hope will get you thinking nice. [00:05:01][18.9]
Bryce: [00:05:02] And that comes out every Monday. Yeah. And you can still get on it. [00:05:05][2.7]
Alec: [00:05:05] You can sign up on our website, on our social media. Just Equity Mates dot com slash thought started saison old additions. If you like what you're writing, you can sign up on that page as well. [00:05:15][10.0]
Bryce: [00:05:15] Done. All right. Well, without any further ado, here is our interview with former deputy prime minister of Australia and the Australian Treasurer, Wayne Swan. [00:05:25][10.0]
Alec: [00:05:32] So when there's a lot of talk as we come into twenty eighteen about an overheated market and we're hearing comparisons to a number of historic bubbles, notably the 2008 bubble and the lead up to the GFC, given you the treasurer of Australia during the GFC, are you seeing any similarities between then and now? And do you think we're likely to see a correction or a crash this year? [00:05:56][24.3]
Wayne: [00:05:57] Well, I think those sort of predictions are all irresponsible. Global growth has been anaemic for years and years. This year, it's forecast to get back to an average that we would have expected prior to the Great Recession. What you're seeing in the global economy now for the first time since two thousand seven is two of the very big engines of the global economy that have been misfiring for the last six or seven years, notably the United States and Europe now firing. So we've got much more balanced growth in the global economy, more balance. And we've seen at any time since the Great Recession or what we call the global financial crisis, because through the crisis and coming out of that crisis, global growth was largely driven by the developing world, plus little all of Australia. So it's good to see global growth more broadly based than it has been really any time since the global financial crisis. Now, whilst it's true that you've got, you know, a lot of frenzied activity in the stock markets, which doesn't necessarily reflect the underlying fundamentals, but, you know, that happens pretty frequently, as you will be aware. But the underlying fundamentals here are that global growth is getting back to what you call around trend levels or might be a bit about. My own view is that the threats to that are not as much economic as geopolitical. But there is, I think, one big policy threat, and this is this is the the issue which is driving the US dollar down at the same time as exuberance is driving stock prices up. And that is the adverse market reaction to to Trump's tax cuts, which many in the financial markets see that as being akin to throwing petrol on a fire. So you've got the US not at full employment, but approaching. There's still a degree of slack in the labour market, but they've done pretty well and they ought to because they've been on their knees for so long. But many people fear the impact of those tax cuts blowing out the US budget deficit. So responsible investors around the world, policy makers and central banks are looking a bit aghast that the United States, when it finally gets close to full employment, the of two thousand and after what occurred at the end of two thousand seven, throws a bit of petrol on the fire and gives a massive unfunded tax cut with all of the ramifications that could flow from that in the future. So that, I think, is a warning signal, which you're saying, and the decline in the US dollar, that that markets are pretty apprehensive about what they see as as a large unfunded tax cut, which is the last thing which is a stimulus in the last thing that the US economy needs at the moment, given the state of its budget. [00:09:19][202.7]
Alec: [00:09:20] Yeah, definitely. And look, we want to we want to touch on tax cuts a little bit more and especially tax cuts in an Australian context a little bit later. But picking up on something you said in your answer there when you talked about how it took 10 years for global growth to pick up after the financial crisis, what do you think were the drivers of that? And why do you think it took so long for growth to come back to the developed world? [00:09:45][24.7]
Wayne: [00:09:46] Well, the reluctance of policymakers to use fiscal policy to to revive growth in a world which had been scared and uncertain about the future. So what you witnessed around the world through much of that period is what Larry Summers, I suppose, called secular stagnation. That is a huge part of private savings, which is simply been sitting there and it hasn't been invested. And what that record was, active steps by responsible authorities across the developed world to. Have a stronger fiscal policy in the absence of that stronger fiscal policy, growth remains anaemic unemployment around the world. Raymont remained high and we saw our necessary capital and skilled destruction, particularly the United States, but also across many other countries. And had governments moved, then Reserve Bank governors would not have had to take such extraordinary steps as they have in monetary policy. So essentially, they were backed into a corner by the reluctance of governments, driven largely by futile survival of the fittest Tea Party ideology to not make the necessary investments they needed in their economies to kick start, if you like, investment. So I think one of the great tragedies of all of the global economy has been the reluctance of responsible authorities to borrow money very cheaply to invest in the future of their economies and in particular in the future, the productive capacity through investment, particularly in physical infrastructure, but also human infrastructure. [00:11:29][102.9]
Alec: [00:11:30] So you mentioned there what the reserve banks around the world did in response to the crisis. And in many cases, they filled the void of government spending, as you said, with with quantitative easing, where they pumped money into markets and into assets and then also with record low interest rates were only just coming out of that period, 10 years after the GFC. Do you worry that the reserve banks don't have a lot of power to dry if something was to happen again? [00:11:59][28.6]
Wayne: [00:12:00] Well, I think it is a legitimate concern. Of course it is, you know, and you got to pick up any piece of economic commentary, commentary to say that that's just that's not the fault of the central banks. So we've got to keep our fingers crossed that that all as well. So, you see, the other concerning issue is also related to the United States, because the unregulated market that led to the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, which was reregulated during this period, is about to be or is not currently in the process of being unregulated yet again. So you say Dodd-Frank under the gun in the US and a lot of rhetoric about loosening regulations across all areas of the financial sector. I was very much associated with what I was treasurer with all of the actions taken to the Financial Stability Board and others over time to put in place a whole new regulatory framework, which has only just been completed largely in the last 12 months to see now Donald Trump trying to pull it apart. And that's very concerning as well. [00:13:09][69.0]
Bryce: [00:13:10] When we understand you're in the process or potentially have finished writing an essay about what's to come in. Twenty eighteen, Alec and I did an episode a couple of weeks ago about this and we had a punt on a few things and sort of predictions of our own. Alex being that Amazon will be all huff and puff. And I put on a case of I put on a case of beer with him that 15th of September, we'll see 20 percent drop in the US stock market. Now, I don't know if you've included them in your essay or not, but [00:13:40][29.3]
Wayne: [00:13:41] what's got to be that I would hope that on the 15th of September, which is the 10th anniversary of the of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, that we say a lot of studious reflection on what went wrong in Onestop, but wanting to repeat the mistakes that actually caused. I would agree. [00:14:01][20.2]
Bryce: [00:14:03] So what are some of the main predictions or themes that you see playing out over twenty eighteen from a political and economic point of view? [00:14:10][7.8]
Wayne: [00:14:11] Oh, I think it's now much more greatly appreciated around the world amongst policymakers and increasingly so, whether you're dealing with the governor of the Bank of England, Christine Lagarde, from the IMF, or whether you're dealing increasingly with senior business leaders like Jeff Immelt from GE or Larry Fink, who spoke out the other day, that unless we're serious with structural reforms that do something about the growing levels of concentration of income and wealth in the hands of a few, that it's hard to see how the global economy is going to get a head of steam. The issue in terms of global growth that most people focus on is what's going to happen in China. And I think one thing that is different about China now than we've seen in recent years, and that is they are now, I think, quite serious about doing something in their financial system and at the same time attending to excessive credit, bad loans and so on. They're doing something much more serious about environmental pollution. The two things combined, combined, and the Reserve Bank pointed to this in this type of monetary policy, two things combined mean that growth in China isn't going to collapse, but will certainly probably be a little lower than it has been for some time. So that might the engine of China, which is grim and still drags, I think up to about a third of global growth, will be attending to its long term challenges much more seriously. Someone said to me who I was talking to, and I spent a lot of time in China. I spent a lot of time with the with the current governor has been there for a while, a very, very good public servant that this time it appears they're not going to kick the can down the road. And they are much more serious about dealing with their issues of bad debt, bad loans and washing that out of the system. So that's one thing. The other thing is that the pattern that we've seen of an increasing concentration of wealth in the developed world and the hollowing out of the middle classes and the creation of vast armies of the working poor is now a pattern which is beginning to replicate itself in those that have been the beneficiaries of global growth over the last 30 years, namely the developing world where millions of people at the bottom have been lifted out of poverty. The and middle classes have been created. But we're now starting to see in those countries the beginnings of a replication of the inequality that we've seen across the developed world. The economics of inequality are well known to everyone. I mean, if you provide a shrinking. Say to each of GDP, to the people who actually do most of the consumption. Well, the economics of that are pretty horrible for economic growth into the future. So I think two things stand out in dealing with those challenges, which is good for everybody, and hopefully doing it in a way which is not disruptive to the enormous contribution they make for the global economy. But secondly, recognising the time has come. For the developed world to, you know, to deal with the poison of trickle down economics and put in place a more balanced set of structural reforms which will drive growth sustainably into the future [00:17:43][211.8]
Alec: [00:19:38] They're both big topics and we definitely want to unpack both of them in a bit more detail. But to start with economic inequality. So you talked about the developed world needing to put in place structural reforms. Do you have any particular reforms in mind? And are there any countries that are doing particularly well that you think Australia and the rest of the developed world can model themselves on? [00:20:01][23.8]
Wayne: [00:20:03] Well, the rest of the world used to model themselves, used to look to Australia as having a good recipe for that, but we started to type there their policies, which deliberately quality. But look, there's two things that stand out amongst a whole series of structural reforms that are required to deal with growing inequality of income and wealth. First one is a return to progressive taxation and a rejection of the of regressive taxation, which has taken hold across the developed world and putting putting some real progressive tax measures into the system so that you can drive the investment that's required in the public goods that make the economy go round. Secondly, doing something about the voice of labour and making sure that that that working people have got a degree of bargaining power. They're the two big ones that stand out, both of which won't work unless something unless you have accompanying political reforms and the political reforms that are needed to accompany that is doing something about the power of big money in democratic politics. Because if you don't do anything about the power of big money in Democratic politics, that you will continue to get labour being squashed and in tax systems made more regressive. [00:21:17][73.5]
Alec: [00:21:18] It's a really interesting question and it's an argument that a lot of people make. And it's something that I'm very receptive to about the power of money in politics. But what I haven't heard is a model of what would work in terms of publicly funded elections or limiting spending, but then finding a way to not have the super PACs that seem to emerge in America. What would you. Yeah, what would your model look like? [00:21:46][27.6]
Wayne: [00:21:47] Well, there are very obvious things about it, some of which we already have. First of all, one vote, one value, which doesn't exist in the United States. Secondly, compulsory voting, which doesn't exist in the United States. Thirdly, some some real laws with teeth that that control the power of big money and how to spend in elections. I mean, and we've got to do a lot more here. Now, that system work for a law and constrains it doesn't do it to the extent it should. We've had public disclosure, but people are working their way around. Britain's got some pretty effective laws about them, about donations and spending in in elections. But at the core of what's going wrong in the United States is the rampant gerrymanders that might make the notion of one vote one value laughable. That's a big deal in that country. Compulsory voting, I'm sure, is not going to be everybody's cup of tea, but it certainly draws your political system to the centre, whereas a voluntary system of voting pulls it to its edges, both left and right and then campaign reform. But there are other big, big areas that are just an increasingly important media reform. They used to call the media the fourth estate for a very good reason. It was very powerful and it was seen as independent and it was an effective transmission mechanism to tell fact from fiction and increasingly the way in which technology has disrupted traditional media, the ownership of traditional media itself, the emergence of social media and the wild applause that transmission mechanism in modern democracies is broken and has to be a lot of discussion about how that is how that is intended to do. [00:23:38][111.0]
Alec: [00:23:38] Do you think that's the case of government reform and government regulation being able to solve that problem, or do you think that. [00:23:43][5.6]
Wayne: [00:23:46] It's not all a question of the government, just as the economy is not a question just about government spending. But I happen to think in this country, much of the challenges we've got in the economic system isn't necessarily the size of government. It's a question of the ethics, morality and operation of the private sector. [00:24:04][17.9]
Alec: [00:24:05] Yeah, OK, so turning to the second second big thing that you raised, which was China, so obviously since prior to 2008, we you know, China bought a lot of our minerals and that has seen Australia's mining boom take us through a pretty turbulent period in global economics. Do you worry that this internal reform that China is going through and the economic slowdown that might result? Do you worry about the second order effects that that will have on the Australian economy? [00:24:39][33.7]
Wayne: [00:24:41] Not especially. And by the way, China didn't take us through the global financial crisis, the what the mining boom that came along didn't really surface. We ended two thousand, not two thousand. Take it certainly along with our stimulus and its TYL buttressed us from the the real shakiness and and tremors that were going through the global economy right through 2010, 2011. Twenty, twelve, twenty thirteen. So that was certainly valuable from that point of view. But the Australian economy is much bigger than mine. You wouldn't think the way in which people talk about the economy, but we're a very big services economy. The 12th or 13th largest economy in the world. And it is true that China is a very big, big now in our economy, but China is very big in everyone's economy. So, yes, it's important for us. And yes, we're very lucky. We've got many of the hard right commodities that they need and that that puts the icing on the top for Australia. But it's not the be all and end all of our economy. They realise, like we realise that the future of their economy lies in going up. The value added scale lies investing, investing in their people and in technology. And it's how we manage that transition and how China manages that transition that's critical for all of the economies in that region. And I'm talking in Indonesia next Monday. And the real the real question is, as China goes up, the value added style and where many of those lower skilled manufacturing operations go, how other countries in the region tap into an expanding services sector, all of those things are quite complex, not just on the question of Australia, China, the question of China and the rest of the world, which Australia is part one. [00:26:42][120.9]
Bryce: [00:26:42] Another theme of twenty nineteen that we have been discussing on the show is obviously the Australian housing market and more specifically Sydney and Melbourne, and how there's a lot of commentary at the moment about the fact that it's quite overheated and we're starting to see a bit of reversal in prices. And with the potential for interest rate rises over the next 12 months and revelations about mortgage fraud and liar loans and those sorts of things, do you have a view on where the Australian market might be heading over the next 12 or twenty four months? [00:27:10][27.8]
Wayne: [00:27:11] That desperately needs some of the reforms that we have argued for in the last election. It's been pumped up too much by by leveraged investment. It has. But negative gearing, and that's not healthy for the sector or really for the Australian economy in the long run. So, you know, but many, many of these price increases and have been a feature of an economy that's had a steady growth. I think our economy should have grown much more strongly in the last two or three years than it has given how low the dollar was buying and given our relatively low interest rates compared to just about anywhere in the world, that there are two very big stimuluses allow a lower dollar and low interest rates, both of which weren't available to me without the Treasurer, even at the height of the global financial crisis. So there's been there's been stimulus, which we've got, I think, effectively managed. And we needed we needed much more investment in that critical economic infrastructure and less and less in parts of the housing sector. But the incentives have been all wrong and they still need to be fixed. [00:28:23][72.0]
Bryce: [00:28:25] So one of the hot topics of twenty seventeen was obviously Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. So going into twenty eighteen, it seems that a number of governments are starting to step in and regulate it a bit more. What's your view on on Bitcoin in the crypto market and where where does the role of government come into play with these sorts of things. [00:28:44][19.4]
Wayne: [00:28:45] Well, I mean the government is going to set up a framework to protect investors from themselves. And I don't know why anyone would particularly want to go and invest in Bitcoin now. And, you know, but if people want to throw their money washing down the Duni, we'll let them let them do so when they're actually making money at the bottom. So but somewhere along the line, I don't know. It'll it'll it'll all even out. But yes. I mean, if there's a market out that. That people are engaging in, it's worth a look at for from a regulatory point of view, but. I don't see it as a mass market, right? I mean, there are far more important discussions to be had about what the fintech revolution is going to do to to, you know, to traditional banking and how that plays out and what role of regulators in all of that. And one of the frameworks for the future that take punters who don't have the luxury of playing with Bitcoin. But just what about to protect their family finances, got a roof over their head and then look after their kids. And the fintech revolution is going to bring some pretty substantial change to traditional banking. And I know that's where our regulators have been looking. [00:30:04][79.4]
Alec: [00:30:05] So when we know we're almost out of time and we are about to ask our final three questions that we ask every interview, but before I do, you sadly announce that you're not going to be recontesting the next election. [00:30:19][13.6]
Wayne: [00:30:20] What some people thought [00:30:20][0.9]
Alec: [00:30:23] given given that you don't have to worry about re-election anymore, are there any how are you going to use your last year and a bit in in politics? Are there any particular issues you're going to push that you may not have been able to push as hard because you had to worry about re-election or anything like that? [00:30:40][17.3]
Wayne: [00:30:41] Now, some people have described this unplugged and largely if you look at what sort of things I've been doing and saying that the inconsistencies basically was re-elected handily in twenty thirteen and didn't get back on the front page. So I've been out there articulating my views based on my experiences as treasurer and my view about what we need to do for the future of the country to lift living standards and share that, lifting living standards more fairly across our people. And I think it'd be fair to say I'll take it on a few topics and a few individuals or a few institutions that aren't very happy with me. And not the bad news for them is I might be getting out of politics, but I'm not getting out of politics. And I'm going to continue to articulate those views because I think they're important to the future of the country. In twenty twelve. I wrote an essay called 0.01 percent The Power Vested Interests in Australia. I'm updating that now and I'm going to update it because I think part of our economic challenges is we can't get the essential structural reforms we need in this economy because of powerful vested interests who don't see it in their immediate economic interest to support them. And by that I particularly mean organisations like our biggest banks and our biggest mining companies. [00:31:58][76.4]
Bryce: [00:31:59] Look forward to reading your essay when it's published. It sounds pretty interesting. So we'll finish with a quick five three questions that, as Alex said, we ask all of our guests at the end of each interview. So to begin with, Wayne, what is a book or books that you consider a must read? [00:32:17][17.6]
Wayne: [00:32:19] Well, there's two books I read recently, John Edwards book on John Curtin, a must read for any Australian Patriot. And the other one. Is a book by Nancy MacLaine called Democracy in chains, which explains how the radical trickle down right took control of politics and power in the United States over a 50 year period. [00:32:44][25.6]
Bryce: [00:32:45] All right. So flowing into that next question is, what is your go to source for information now? This is usually framed around economics and investing. Do you have a particular source that you would encourage our listeners to start getting around or what's your sort of source of information these days? [00:33:05][19.8]
Wayne: [00:33:07] I always read the Financial Times. That's why I go to what's really happening in economics and one or two columns in the Financial Review in Australia, but not its editorial. And so but more broadly on economics, I. I read pretty widely I I get most of the reports. All of, for example, I think is consistently good. There are many others are coming out of the come back come in. Just about all the bank stuff that I read is is pretty good. And I generally haven't I had when I was treasurer, I haven't given it up on a fraud or whatever that they're putting in their weekly thing. And I'll have a right Westpac Bill Evans. I mean, I read all that or glance at the detail I used to, but I got a lot of that stuff outside of the post on one source. Yeah, I have a bit of a look around and most that stuff's readily available and easily accessible and and but basically they've done it bite sized bits now where you can pick it up and get a handle on it. And that's what I did. [00:34:14][67.1]
Bryce: [00:34:14] Yeah, I agree and read widely. So to finish the fun three is the what's one piece of advice you would give to your younger self and it could be anything. [00:34:23][8.3]
Wayne: [00:34:24] Yeah, I gave it, I said the other day I, I'm not running and that was that. I do regret that during the intense period of my treasurership because basically it was consumed for this cup. So it's three years by the crisis and then by internal challenges in our party while we try to do carbon pricing and a whole lot of huge reforms that I didn't take more time out of that sort of fraught schedule just to exercise and to think more clearly about where we were. It was just such an intense period. So I think for anyone who is involved in very difficult challenges and very long work hours, which are absolutely unavoidable when you're in jobs like mine and many others just might carve out a bit more time for personal exercise and reflection then than necessarily your diary might give you. [00:35:19][55.0]
Bryce: [00:35:20] I like that one. That's good. [00:35:21][1.0]
Wayne: [00:35:22] And that includes family time. [00:35:23][1.0]
Alec: [00:35:24] So when that brings us to the end of the interview now, just before you go, this interview has been about our predictions for twenty eighteen. And I think it would be remiss if we didn't finish by asking, what do you think twenty eighteen holds for Barnaby Joyce? Well that's not if you don't want [00:35:45][20.9]
Wayne: [00:35:47] to answer it. Not much. [00:35:50][2.7]
Alec: [00:35:51] Yeah right. You stay as Nationals leader not. [00:35:55][3.8]
Bryce: [00:35:56] Wow. Yeah, looking forward to seeing how it all plays out, but Wayne, thank you very much for coming on Equity Mates we really appreciated your time and some of the wisdom that you've given us today about sort of what's to come night. And we're looking forward to the release of your next essay and all the best with life after politics. [00:36:19][23.0]
Wayne: [00:36:21] I'm told there is one. [00:36:21][0.8]
Bryce: [00:36:22] No, it's not. But yeah, once I really appreciate it. Good to talk. [00:36:28][6.2]
Speaker 7: [00:36:30] Equity Mates and the people appearing in this programme may have positions in the company's pension. This is general advice for me. Please speak to a financial professional to understand how they pertain to your individual situation. [00:36:30][0.0]