Expert Investor: Matt Leibowitz – What’s Hot, What’s Not In The US Markets

Bryce: [00:00:57] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast where we help you learn to invest in 45 minutes or less. We break down the world of investing from beginning to dividend so that you can hopefully make some returns. My is Bryce. And as always, I'm joined by my equity buddy Ren. How's it going, bro? [00:01:12][15.0]

Alec: [00:01:12] I'm very good. Bryce glad to be back here, excited to be back in the studio and excited to have probably our most returned guest back with us. [00:01:21][9.3]

Bryce: [00:01:22] Yes. Matt Liebowitz, founder and CEO of Stake, a platform that gives access to the US stock market, is joining us in the studio. [00:01:30][8.6]

Matt: [00:01:31] Cheers, guys. Good to see you in person. [00:01:32][1.3]

Bryce: [00:01:33] Yes, yes. To Ren point is probably the tenth time on the show [00:01:37][4.3]

Bryce: [00:01:39] and you still keep coming back. [00:01:40][0.9]

Matt: [00:01:41] I'm a sucker for punishment. [00:01:42][0.7]

Bryce: [00:01:44] So we've got Matt on today to take our attention over to the US market. Firstly, we'll jump into all things Covid. We haven't sort of chatted to you about about what's been going on for you during that period of time. And then have a look at some of the hot stocks that have been trading by Australians over in the US, as well as some of the cool and crazy stories that we're seeing in terms of day trading and hurts and all sorts of things. [00:02:07][23.5]

Alec: [00:02:08] So much, so much going on. [00:02:09][1.5]

Matt: [00:02:10] There's a lot to report. [00:02:10][0.6]

Bryce: [00:02:11] And then we'll close out with a couple of new interesting listings that have come on to the platform. And also an interesting ETF that I've just noticed that's worth calling out. So there [00:02:20][9.8]

Alec: [00:02:21] you go. Stay tuned to watch that space. [00:02:22][1.2]

Bryce: [00:02:22] Yeah, we don't usually do a cliff-hanger, so [00:02:24][1.8]

Alec: [00:02:26] let's start with steak and then we'll get into it. You know, everything that's going on in the US more broadly. So it's been a couple of months since we last spoke to you. And, you know, obviously, every man and his dog now, everyone's had a lot of time while they're locked away at home to think about making some more money. So how's it been at stake over the last couple of months? Been like, [00:02:46][20.0]

Matt: [00:02:47] yeah, very busy. You know, I don't think I've ever seen a period like this in terms of steak. You know, we've been around for around three years now. And this is just it's pretty insane, actually. The level of participation in the market is probably higher than it's ever been. You know, you don't need a you know, you can read the newspapers of, you know, just jump online. You can there's always an article about the stock markets, obviously, in terms of engagement with the market and with steak. You know, we're a beneficiary of that. But it's you know, for us, it's you know, we always want people to participate in the share market and give them an ability to to get what they can out of the market. So we're excited by that, you know, helps us with our mission to go and deliver to the world. But he has kept our team busy. And, you know, a lot of businesses out there are really suffering. So we've got to be cognisant of that. But there are some other stories. And, you know, we're lucky enough to be one of those. But also keep in mind the fact that there's others out there that haven't been as lucky. [00:03:33][46.5]

Bryce: [00:03:34] Now, Matt, you were a partner at Octavo, [00:03:36][2.2]

Matt: [00:03:36] so I was. I was. [00:03:37][0.7]

Bryce: [00:03:38] Which is a high frequency trading. [00:03:39][1.4]

Matt: [00:03:40] My wife keeps reminding me [00:03:41][1.1]

Bryce: [00:03:43] after leaving [00:03:43][0.4]

Bryce: [00:03:45] high frequency trading firm over in the States. So I'm interested to know what it would have been like on the floor in the rooms at the time when covid really kicked off and the market essentially went into the fastest drop that we've ever seen in history. What happens in a high frequency trading floor like that [00:04:03][18.7]

Alec: [00:04:04] during that time? It's all just computers, isn't it? [00:04:06][2.1]

Matt: [00:04:07] Yeah, it's like one man looking at it. And it's I mean, I've seen some stuff before that I would actually say is probably more phenomenal than what I've seen now. In 2010, it was there's pretty much a flash crash where the market has disappeared. And that was the fastest one day thing I've ever seen. There was rumblings that this was happening towards the end of the year. I don't know if you guys can recall, but in December, there was talk about what's happening in Wuhan and then in January and then it really only hit the markets February. So if you're in China or you had access to the Chinese market or you just you probably could see something happening and then it hit Italy and then it really just roiled the markets from a trading point of view. It doesn't really come as a major shock when it actually happens because you're seeing so much stuff happen in the market that there's always little bits that are phenomenal, like why did that trade go through? That's a really big downside trade. Like when someone puts for the market to fall and you start to see things that a retail investor wouldn't see. But then when the market really does go, it's like, whoa, what's going on here? Like everyone bucklin in front of your screens, no one's allowed out in terms of like, you know, you're not allowed out like a lockdown, but you don't take your eyes off the screen. And, you know, the whole role of a market makers to provide liquidity to the market. And their role is really important in times like this so people can manage their risk. So if you're, you know, mum and dad investor, you can get out or get into a position or if you're an institution where you need to do something like, you know, you need to have someone on the other side of the role of the market because this is where you actually provided your role to the marketplace. So in a way, it was your time to shine as a you know, as a participant in the market. So it's exciting for from some respects. But you're also realising it's not really reality. You know, you're sitting behind a computer screen and lots of things are moving up and down. But that's a by-product of what's actually happening in the real world. So there was always a bit of a gap between what was happening and what was happening in front of you. [00:05:52][105.1]

Bryce: [00:05:52] So then taking that, knowing that you've got all that information in front of you. And Whiz-Bang computers, and you're seeing more than the average retail investor and then putting yourself in the position that you would have been in now here in Australia, more of a retail investor. How did you personally approach the Covid crash? We did. Of stocks in Sock's session with you guys. Chat about it. So head to YouTube if you want to check it out. But, yeah, how did you kind of approach it? [00:06:16][23.4]

Matt: [00:06:16] Yeah, I mean, I was pretty lucky because I thought things are a little bit frothy before. I think we met at the beginning of the year and back in this studio and I said I'm a little bit nervous. So I was lucky enough to get a bit off the table. I took a little bit down with me and then I actually got when it rallied the first time afterwards, I'm like, this just isn't real. So I got a little bit short, but I got out of that pretty quick. I actually wrote a few shorts out, which wasn't ideal, but some of the songs I had Covid it so actually was personally OK. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. I mean, but when I think about it, they've just lowered rates so quickly. Where else are people putting their cash on? Yeah, and I've got I've got a few like I speculate on why it is. And it's you know, you look at the indices and they've changed a lot. You know, the digital companies are now the biggest weighted stocks in the indices and they're the ones that have been recipients of this crisis. There's been a, you know, digital adoption has been out of control. And, you know, there's the death of paper money. So it sort of does make sense. At the same time, it doesn't make sense. So sometimes it's better to sit on the sidelines and shake your head. [00:07:13][57.1]

Bryce: [00:07:13] Yeah, yeah. That's that's sort of been my [00:07:16][2.3]

Alec: [00:07:17] my approach as this thing kept running up. I just I don't understand. I mean, like I understand in countries where we've got it under control. But, you know, we always say the stock market isn't the economy. But that has never been more clear to me. When the US is still shut down, they've still got like 25000 cases of coronavirus a day. And their stock market is the Nasdaq's like up 13 percent for the year or something. [00:07:38][21.7]

Matt: [00:07:39] And it is insane. I mean, there's always opportunities. You know, you look at peloton and it made perfect sense. Right? [00:07:44][5.2]

Bryce: [00:07:44] Look at what's peloton just for new listeners. [00:07:47][2.5]

Matt: [00:07:47] Peloton is a US. Well, it's really a cycle slash software company that puts in home bikes like it provides bikes for your home. And then you plug it in in the morning and you go do a cycle in your living room. My sister born in London. [00:07:59][12.0]

Bryce: [00:08:01] It's like R.P.M. from home. [00:08:02][1.1]

Alec: [00:08:02] It's an exercise bike masquerading as a tech company. [00:08:04][2.1]

Bryce: [00:08:05] Yeah, yeah. [00:08:05][0.3]

Matt: [00:08:06] But you think about it, it's got like tremendous brand value right now. You know, you get sent photos of people on them, you know, like they share it. There's a community. So that made sense that there's one thing I was watching pretty closely. And then people, if you think about what's happened, I think I, I think I paid a mate in cash the other day and I'm like, you don't have to hold onto this for twenty years. They said, like, companies like PayPal went all time high beta in Australia with Afterpay really just. Yeah, really. Just you know, there are certain, you know, stocks and securities are just massive beneficiaries, whereas others obviously travel companies and, you know, shipping companies and whatever really suffered. So I guess [00:08:44][37.4]

Bryce: [00:08:44] peloton up one hundred and fifty nine per cent since the bottom, which was for them the thirteenth of March. So pretty decent. But I mean, it's no, it's not like that. [00:08:54][10.0]

Bryce: [00:08:54] You know, those [00:08:55][0.8]

Alec: [00:08:55] numbers, those numbers are just becoming less and less meaningful, though. Like I was looking at a stock and it was up forty percent from the March 23 bottom. And I was like, [00:09:05][9.1]

Bryce: [00:09:05] that's that's yeah. That's that's that's that. You know, [00:09:08][3.1]

Bryce: [00:09:09] it might be having less meaning, but it doesn't help my feeling when I look at them and just go down [00:09:14][4.4]

Bryce: [00:09:14] the list it all they [00:09:15][1.5]

Alec: [00:09:16] all did it. But it's a real money issue again. [00:09:17][1.5]

Matt: [00:09:18] Absolutely. [00:09:18][0.0]

Alec: [00:09:19] We want to get into some individual stocks because the headlines have been filled with some American stocks that have done very well and some American stocks that have done not so well. But before we do, sticking with the broader markets and macro themes, I'm interested to get your thoughts on this whole infinite support from the Fed. Unlimited printing of money. Last week, the Fed also announced that they would not just buy US government bonds or bond ETFs, but they would go and buy individual corporate bonds, their balance sheets at what, like seven point one, seven point two trillion, which is just an absurd amount of money. What do you think about that? And I guess the second question is, is the size of the recovery we've seen in the US, mainly because of the Fed? [00:10:03][43.6]

Matt: [00:10:04] I can answer the first, but I can answer the second without speculating. [00:10:06][2.8]

Alec: [00:10:07] Yeah, well, I feel like no one can. [00:10:09][1.4]

Bryce: [00:10:09] Yeah, no. [00:10:10][1.2]

Matt: [00:10:10] I mean, you know, rates have gone nowhere, sort of. I think the down one and a half per cent, you know, since maybe six months ago, maybe a little bit longer than that, really push rates down through this programme. Then the biggest owner of the equity market in a sense, and it really just you're in an election year as well. So there's, you know, differing incentives. I mean, you can get orchestra. It's your theory. But ultimately, there's just so much money being pumped into the system, whether it be if you're a Netflix where you've got a model that makes money, you're borrowing at zero, like your cost of capital is zero and you can turn it into cash. So those sort of cash generating businesses that can turn an X into X plus something, they're going to see accretive growth. So that's playing on the system. There's been the Bernanke put. There's been the Greens. And putting out there's the power output and people just jump in, they just know that the government can save you like they've crossed the Rubicon, you know, in a way, they've just they just saying we're here to help you. Yeah. I just don't know when, you know what happens when it gets unwound or does it you know this why this happened. [00:11:10][59.7]

Bryce: [00:11:11] Yeah, I don't know. [00:11:11][0.6]

Matt: [00:11:12] This happened in, you know, 97 with the Asian crisis. I think Singapore or even Hong Kong bought a lot of securities during the currency crisis of the mid to late 90s. So we'll look [00:11:22][10.5]

Bryce: [00:11:22] at Japan as well. Yeah, the government owns, what, 90 something? [00:11:25][2.8]

Alec: [00:11:26] I think 70 per [00:11:26][0.8]

Bryce: [00:11:26] 70 percent of the ETF market, which is ridiculous [00:11:29][2.8]

Matt: [00:11:30] night and unwind is going to be very interesting. The question is, will they wait until there's confidence and then slowly like it? [00:11:36][6.1]

Alec: [00:11:36] And they the story of Boeing, I think, is really instructive of just how powerful the even just from a psychological point of view the Fed was, they went to the government asking for a bailout because, you know, Boeing had a terrible twenty nineteen and then coronavirus happened and no one was flying. And then a couple of weeks later, they withdrew their request for a bailout, not because the Fed had given them any money, but just the Fed had promised infinite support. And it gave the market so much confidence that they could just raise capital [00:12:07][30.2]

Bryce: [00:12:07] and [00:12:07][0.0]

Bryce: [00:12:09] not before we jump to stocks. Ren, I think while we're talking about big themes, we should address what is going on with retail trading over in the States and Robin Hood. Yes, there's been a lot of chit chat and Matt being the [00:12:21][12.8]

Alec: [00:12:22] not as the as the man that brought commission free trading to Australia can talk about one of his peers over in the U.S. and whatever they're doing to the market over there. [00:12:32][10.6]

Matt: [00:12:34] Well, I don't think it's fair that Robin Hood gets targeted. I'll be perfectly frank. I'm going to defend my fellow brothers. But, yeah, I mean, retail, it's you know, it's so easy to write a story about retail investors and day traders. It's just like, you know, you're not going to read a story about, you know, God goes and buys or, you know, 35 year old mother of two goes and buys Berkshire Hathaway. [00:12:54][19.9]

Bryce: [00:12:55] Class-Based, this is not this is not a story. [00:12:57][2.3]

Alec: [00:12:57] Bryce has been pitching that as [00:12:59][1.3]

Bryce: [00:12:59] an episode last year. It's got legs. [00:13:03][4.2]

Matt: [00:13:05] So what you're hearing is a small subset of what's really happening. You know, and we see it on stage. You know, there are people [00:13:11][6.0]

Alec: [00:13:11] that [00:13:11][0.0]

Matt: [00:13:12] have different trading strategy and you can't judge how someone wants to invest their money. It's their money. And I think that's really important. But retail investing is, you know, people are at home is digital adoption, obviously, as we've spoken about, and people have been waiting for an opportunity to get into the market. You know, a lot of people we speak to as I to high or an opportunity to get in. And, you know, the old adage, when be greedy, when others are fearful, that kicks in. So, look, it's just an opportunity for people to participate. And, you know, in a sense that that's that's a good thing. [00:13:37][25.1]

Bryce: [00:13:37] I agree. I'm somewhat torn about how they're thinking about it, though. I'm interested to know what you think about Dave Portnoy, who for those listening to the show who unaware he is the media guy, owns barstool sports or did own started. Yeah, and during this coronavirus period, he decided to start day trading by putting three million into into his day trading account. And he would live stream himself on Twitter talking about stocks and doing trades. I think somewhat it's like game of hide the idea of day trading in some way. He's got a big following. I'm interested to think understand what you guys sort of think about this approach and how he's talking about it. [00:14:19][41.9]

Matt: [00:14:20] Would you get upset if someone livestream the exercise routine in the morning? [00:14:23][3.3]

Alec: [00:14:24] What Bryce does that on Instagram [00:14:25][1.0]

Bryce: [00:14:26] was looking very well. Well, I think, you know, you're the one with the guns out and [00:14:31][5.7]

Matt: [00:14:33] it's hot in here right now. [00:14:33][1.0]

Bryce: [00:14:34] Yeah, but [00:14:35][0.3]

Bryce: [00:14:35] you can't lose half a million dollars doing an exercise routine in the morning, right? [00:14:39][4.3]

Matt: [00:14:40] Yeah, but it's a progress thing. You know, people want to if you want to be in the share market, why should there be barriers to entry? Why shouldn't everyone be allowed to make their mark on it? And for me, it's you know, if that's the way that a person wants to invest their money and learn and who knows what three million dollars is to him versus or someone else. [00:14:54][14.1]

Bryce: [00:14:55] Yeah, I just think it's an understanding of risk thing that I'm that I'm kind of getting at is I feel like there's a lot of people that are in at the moment that that don't necessarily really understand what risks they're taking you. [00:15:05][10.4]

Matt: [00:15:05] I mean, the first thing you need to do is, you know, risk management is actually what investing is about. Yeah. You know, you you're here to invest or trade or whatever your strategy is. As long as you have a risk management tool, you'll be OK or risk management process. I didn't really follow what I thought I was doing. I assume that half a million dollars is probably a good investment for me in terms of just his profile. [00:15:23][17.4]

Bryce: [00:15:23] And they've always gone up and down. I think he's actually OK. [00:15:26][2.6]

Alec: [00:15:26] But so he was it was three million dollars in at the bottom. He had lost one point eight. Yeah. And then I think at the max he's been up is one. And I think right now he's up like half a million. Yeah. Yeah. I think for me though is it is shown me how little sense of humour the financial media industry has. Like half of the stuff he's doing is taking the piss and like having fun with it. He's calling out Warren Buffett, criticising him for selling airlines at the bottom, all this stuff and like CNBC and stuff. Take him. So seriously, and he's obviously day trading and he's made money and all of that, but he's taking the piss a lot of the time and they just don't have a sense of humour. [00:16:04][38.0]

Matt: [00:16:05] No, I think there's also movement away from traditional media, in a sense. And when it comes to investing, you know, there's the whole subculture around investing. You're seeing even on, you know, Wolf, of Wall Street in the movies, the big short billions obviously here on CNN in Australia. You know, people want to be in the game. They want to you know, they I think investing is what your grandfather did in a way. And trading is a lifestyle choice. And, you know, I've I've always personally loved the markets because it's so dynamic. And you get to be in that coliseum every day and you get to test yourself. And a lot of other people want that experience. And obviously your goal is to make money and to build long term wealth. And that's been the case of the share market for hundreds of years. And if your first entry point is through Dave partner, and then you over time develop your craft, that's a great thing. [00:16:50][45.2]

Bryce: [00:16:51] It's more entertaining to watch Portnoy live than it would be. Buffett live eight hours a day [00:16:55][4.4]

Bryce: [00:16:57] reading his news for 500 pages. That's three hundred thirty three pages. [00:17:02][5.1]

Matt: [00:17:04] And you see him giving high fives. Yeah. [00:17:06][1.7]

Alec: [00:17:07] And the interesting thing for me or one, Dave, Portnoy's Bread and Butter was barstool sports and other stuff now like culture and all of that as well. But he's done very well to pivot his focus away from sports as sports stopped into the market. So from a business perspective, he's done very well and full credit to him. And it feels like he's either led or he's you know, he's a symbol of everyone who loves sports gambling. And when sport stopped, moved very quickly to the market, it's going to be interesting to see if they stick around with stocks or they they go back to gambling again. [00:17:43][35.7]

Matt: [00:17:44] Have you guys been following points bit here in Australia from a stock price, you know? Yeah. So traded it for maybe sometime last year. I remember it listed and then it went up to like nine bucks or something. You probably got in front of you there. Yeah. Then it dropped during this period, I think into like even into the ones maybe low twos and it's back up at seven bucks and it's literally aggressive, high growth Aussie listed sports betting company that's going. And now the US is sort of opening up. So I don't have an opinion on what's going to happen. But I think the market suggests that what you're saying is right, because they've put their the share price of points better, has come back very aggressively. So and you can't argue with the market. So. [00:18:25][41.0]

Alec: [00:18:25] No, no. And when you try, you normally lose money. [00:18:28][2.9]

Bryce: [00:18:30] So speaking of stocks, let's jump into what has been traded by Aussies over in the U.S. [00:18:35][5.6]

Alec: [00:18:36] I'm interested to kick off this individual stock discussion. I'm interested to ask Matt, what stock has most caught your attention or most surprised you during this period? And that's a question without notice. So I'll I'll do some Filho, I think, you know. [00:18:51][15.3]

Matt: [00:18:52] Oh, jeez. I mean, [00:18:53][1.2]

Bryce: [00:18:54] I feel like could I'd [00:18:58][3.8]

Matt: [00:18:58] have to say Hertz because I like it's just out of control. But it seems like such a cliched answer. No, it's a little disappointing to [00:19:04][6.1]

Bryce: [00:19:05] give you that one [00:19:05][0.4]

Bryce: [00:19:06] for context. [00:19:06][0.2]

Alec: [00:19:07] Yeah. Can you tell us the story of what happened? [00:19:09][1.7]

Matt: [00:19:09] Yes. Hertz's I wouldn't say Hurts has been the most high performing stock for the last few years, but, you know, obviously hit a point where it filed for bankruptcy and it was essentially a penny stock. It was trading well below a dollar. And then I think it's Chapter 11 in the US bankruptcy. And then it ended up raising a billion dollars of equity. [00:19:26][17.1]

Alec: [00:19:27] Right or not, the S.E.C. blocked them. [00:19:29][2.2]

Matt: [00:19:30] OK, all but you probably know more. I follow the share price and the craziness and [00:19:33][3.5]

Bryce: [00:19:34] I'll defer to you for the. [00:19:35][1.2]

Alec: [00:19:36] No, you're right. They wanted to because at one stage their share price was up eight hundred and something percent from their low and it dropped a little bit. But they were like, well, if you guys are going to beat our stock up so much, we're going to try and raise capital amongst this and save the business. And I don't know if that's been done before. Like company has found its way out of bankruptcy by raising capital from investors. But yeah, I think the SSA blocked them. [00:19:58][22.2]

Matt: [00:19:59] We'll speak before I can understand the investor or trader mindset towards buying a stock like that, you know, essentially rock bottom. And, you know, if this thing does recover, then hurts is a known brand and you may get multiple, you know, so it's it nearly represents an option where you're getting exponential asymmetric payoffs for a basically for pennies, literally. [00:20:19][20.5]

Bryce: [00:20:20] So it dropped from twenty dollars and 25 cents on the 21st of and fell to about sixteen dollars. Then it went rock bottom down to eighty cents. And then Ren to your point had a rally of just under 600 per cent and now it's back down to a dollar eighty. So it's been absolutely hammered and it's been bought out hasn't it. [00:20:45][24.8]

Alec: [00:20:45] I don't know if it's been bought out not to do it. It's rally was 890 percent. Wow. From the 26th of May to the 8th of June. Wow. Yeah, crazy. And that was all. Robin Hood investors with less than a thousand dollars in their account, according to the media. [00:20:59][13.9]

Matt: [00:21:00] Yeah, somehow, yeah, it's got to be some institutional flown. You know, ultimately Hertz's you know, it's a company that's been around well beyond our time. Massive. [00:21:08][7.9]

Alec: [00:21:08] Yeah. I think 130 years old or something like that. [00:21:11][2.7]

Matt: [00:21:11] Yeah. There's still got to be a use case for their position in the market, their brand, you know, as we're speaking, whether it be like a Tesla wants to put it there or there's been a big movement towards like high level rentals. You know, in the U.K., there's a company that rents out Mercedes for like weekends or month. So you have to buy one instead of even leasing it, you just rent it. So I think someone saying something that, you know, maybe the market wasn't at the time. [00:21:32][20.5]

Bryce: [00:21:33] Speaking of Tesla, it has been the most bought stock sold since the bottom and sold since the bottom of of the market. And that's not surprising. Seems to be a stock that is always on the trade or watch list. But it has had incredible performance, a low of 430 points in March and is now just trading above 1000 bucks. And I think because of that, the valuation of the company is such that Ailene now gets to trigger one of his many, I guess, performance options. And I think, you know, he's entitled to a few hundred million dollars because of it. So it's been an incredible journey for a Tesla investor. [00:22:13][40.7]

Matt: [00:22:14] It's crazy. It is that radical that everything about it's radical. And, you know, from what they're doing is radical to the sentiment between the longs and the bears, the shorts, you know, that's radical. The treatment of Musk in the media is radical. And then the trading on is pretty radical. It's you know, this is what's amazing about the market. [00:22:35][20.5]

Bryce: [00:22:35] It's one of those stocks that we constantly for the last four years have been talking about and how, you know, not that we think it's going to fall, but continuously argue that there's reasons that it should be much lower than it is in reckon. In a year's time. We'll be here talking. It will be 2500 bucks like this. [00:22:54][18.3]

Bryce: [00:22:54] It's just going to kick [00:22:54][0.6]

Alec: [00:22:55] the range of outcomes is larger than any other stock. Elon Musk is in jail [00:22:59][4.0]

Bryce: [00:22:59] in a year. [00:23:00][0.2]

Alec: [00:23:01] He's the first trillion [00:23:01][0.5]

Matt: [00:23:03] I run a like a once a week chat on video. And, you know, we had a guest on who really understood and actually told, you know, spoke about the story of actual Tesla as a business that you don't actually get to hear, you know, where the economics are going to come from, where the growth is going to come from, what their computer systems, what their data sets are going to be worth. It was really interesting to uncover and it really was a Deep Dive. And, you know, you only hear really like you only hear why people hate musk. Yeah. You know, they they're like bullish on Mars because he's like, you know, amazing. And these things change in the world, which is obviously it's doing an amazing job. Then there's the haters are like, this guy's a fraud. And like, the numbers don't make sense. The economics don't make sense. But no one actually tells the story of Tesla. And it's really interesting to hear that, you know, the way it was described to me is this is this business has got moats everywhere from a data point of view, from trying to replicate it in the market for the speed at which, you know, existing car companies can move, you know, Porsches released like a premium, you know, prestige electric vehicle, 50000 Aussie dollars. It's house has every man going to, you know, being able to buy where they were. Just no, Tesla is a trustworthy electric brand. It's really interesting to hear that. [00:24:07][64.1]

Alec: [00:24:07] So after that conversation, are you a buy, hold or sell on? [00:24:12][4.2]

Matt: [00:24:12] Well, I moved it from 400 to no. You know, it's the momentum's on up, so I'm more bullish and bearish, you know, ultimately didn't change it. I'm not going to go jump in and just buy the stock. But look, this thing was beating everything away. So it's pretty impressive. [00:24:30][17.6]

Alec: [00:24:31] I feel like aliens. One of those guys where every moment of controversy is then punctuated by like an unbelievable historical success, like, you know, he does it for twenty funding, secured it and then, you know, like Tesla goes really well or, you know, he calls his child a name that I can't even pronounce something. Yeah. And then they send that SpaceX send people to space. He's just he's such a dichotomy of a person. He's an enigma. I love it. I don't invest in Tesla. I would like to invest in SpaceX, but I'm pretty confident that won't go public, at least for a while. But yeah, he's important to the human race, I guess big time. [00:25:08][37.7]

Matt: [00:25:09] Or you can go buy Virgin Galactic, the space company. Yes. [00:25:12][3.4]

Alec: [00:25:13] Doesn't excite me as well. [00:25:14][0.9]

Matt: [00:25:14] So Richard Branson's not you [00:25:16][1.7]

Alec: [00:25:16] know, I just think the things that Musk has done, you know, like reusable rockets, is something that we sort of brushed over as a society. But it's man that is so transformational and, you know, no one else did it. And I was actually having this discussion with my housemate, like, if Alan wasn't around, would we have reusable rockets in twenty twenty? And I think the answer is a resounding no. And that alone is, you know, like it's incredible for what what it will mean for space travel. [00:25:43][26.8]

Matt: [00:25:44] Yeah. And I think that's what's you know, I think people get lost about the share market and they look at it as like a place to make money. But it's actually a place for companies to go get capital to move the world forward. And that's why it's so vital that it keeps on. Writing in times like this, you know, I heard about exchanges in Europe wanted to close down and stop trading and and then buy short selling, if you do that, you're actually creating more issues down the line. You need liquidity in the market. You need places to go get capital. And shit is bad to be able to go and raise money, to go keep people working, to keep innovation happening. You know, the market needs to be there to look after the economy and drive it forward. Where the markets are most robust is in first world countries. And as you see development globally, you're going to see more access to capital in these third world countries will start to flourish as well as we can get capital there. So, you know, the Tesla story is as part and parcel of that as well. And that's a good point. [00:26:33][48.8]

Alec: [00:26:33] The Europeans shouldn't ban short selling. They should just do what the Americans do, punch multiple trillions of dollars into the [00:26:39][5.8]

Bryce: [00:26:39] market and just don't have a shot. So I don't have a [00:26:42][2.7]

Matt: [00:26:43] I mean, you say Greece has opened its borders. So, I mean, like, they're trying to get things going and they don't have the you know, they've done it. They've had rates below zero for years now. It's just a real tough situation. [00:26:54][11.0]

Alec: [00:26:55] While we're talking electric cars, there was another electric truck company that got a lot of headlines. Yeah, Niccola, I think they've doubled in price, more than doubled in price from there when they listed. Have you seen much action on that stock in state buying? Selling, you know, like what's the sentiment been around that? [00:27:12][17.2]

Matt: [00:27:13] Yeah, really, really. Positive sentiment is one that our community really push for as soon as it listed. It's amazing. It's like four in three months. It's up five hundred and thirty per cent. It's an amazing story. And it's you know, it's just, you know, if you can if you can be one of the leaders, there's even nations within electric cars now. Yeah. So they've done a great job as Neo in China as well. That sort of sits in the same sort of space in the car space like the Chinese Tesla. This is a buy for me, but this is no investment advice. But no, no, like you think about where Tesla has gone is this can replicate that like this is at its infancy. [00:27:46][33.2]

Bryce: [00:27:46] That's interesting. And so I don't really know much about nuclear. Do they specialise in trucks? [00:27:51][4.9]

Alec: [00:27:52] Yeah. Electric trucks. [00:27:53][0.7]

Bryce: [00:27:53] Yeah, right. Isn't Tesla about to release their semi automated semi-trailer or automated system? [00:27:58][5.4]

Alec: [00:27:59] They've got one in the works, but I don't know if it's in the works, like the cyber truck's in the works like they do promotion around it and who knows when [00:28:05][6.3]

Bryce: [00:28:05] it will actually come into the cymotrichous. I do think [00:28:07][1.8]

Matt: [00:28:08] it's also, you know, you think about automotives and you've got cars and you've got vans and then you've got, know, big machinery. There's so many different categories to it. And Tesla may own them all. I doubt that you haven't seen that. You know, Mercedes in does trucks and buses and then you've got millions of car companies. You got Caterpillar, what does machinery. So, you know, Nickel is probably looking at that niche outside of, you know, household and consumer cars and more in the sort of commercial trucking space. So, you know, I think they're doing the right way. They like we're going to own a nation in this space and we're going to be the first mover and there's going to be no one else who can take that. So that's that's for me. What's so interesting, it's [00:28:46][37.5]

Alec: [00:28:46] funny because, look, I don't know much about electric trucks. It would be a strange nature if I really did. But what I've heard is that the amount of power and stuff that's needed, it doesn't really make sense to create electric trucks. I think like the size of the batteries and the amount of power it needs, it doesn't really work. And hydrogen fuel cells work a lot better for long haul large trucks. But obviously the market is saying something in Niccola that is disproven and they're saying something they like. [00:29:13][27.3]

Bryce: [00:29:14] Speaking of truck technology, so, so self driving, you've read the Uber book Super Pumps. So there's a guy and called Anthony Lewandowsky. He was a former Google engineer and he was one of the big, I guess, pioneers of the self-driving tech for Google for way. Yeah. Yeah. And he left and then went and started his own self-driving truck company, which was suspiciously quickly bought by Uber for about 700 million. But he's just been ordered to pay Google 180 million dollars. [00:29:46][32.5]

Matt: [00:29:47] Personal super payout. Five twenty. Yes. Net. Yeah, I [00:29:53][5.2]

Bryce: [00:29:53] mean at all. Sure. [00:29:53][0.6]

Bryce: [00:29:54] Yeah, huge. So he's filed for bankruptcy, but anyway, [00:29:56][1.9]

Bryce: [00:29:58] he's in that one hundred ninety five. [00:29:59][1.5]

Bryce: [00:30:00] So what else drew your attention Matt. Or is not surprising. I'm looking at some of them here from from the bottom of the market. The most bought stocks are things like Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, you know, stocks that are pretty standard in the big hitters. Then you've got Disney. [00:30:16][16.0]

Matt: [00:30:17] Bayou's interesting. [00:30:17][0.6]

Bryce: [00:30:19] Boing boing. Yeah. [00:30:20][1.1]

Matt: [00:30:20] So look, it's just a household name that got destroyed literally during the during the the move. And it's not a partner, but a bit of a flight to safety. [00:30:28][8.2]

Bryce: [00:30:29] No pun intended. [00:30:30][0.4]

Matt: [00:30:30] No pun intended. So that one, that one surprised me because you know, you saw, you know, as I said, Warren Buffett selling out, you know, and obviously airlines is taking an absolute battering. So, yeah, I don't know. That was really interesting. I mean, the flight to safety of the Teslas, the Microsoft stock, it's amazing to consider those safe stocks. [00:30:47][17.2]

Alec: [00:30:48] But it's crazy to me that Tesla is considered a safe stock at this point. [00:30:52][4.0]

Matt: [00:30:52] It's just a growth stock. [00:30:54][1.5]

Bryce: [00:30:55] It's a growth large cap stock, [00:30:57][1.9]

Bryce: [00:30:59] if that's even possible. [00:30:59][0.6]

Alec: [00:31:00] It's the 20 blue chip stocks. [00:31:02][1.7]

Bryce: [00:31:02] Yes, well, look, [00:31:03][1.0]

Matt: [00:31:03] they weren't wrong. So who are we? You know, so but it was also the most sold. So it's a heavily traded stock. What was sad to see on that number was GoPro been the most sold give and we give it away when you open an account. Yeah, it was one of the reasons [00:31:15][11.6]

Alec: [00:31:16] why you're giving it away, because so many people on stake are selling it. You're just trying to get it out the door. [00:31:19][3.9]

Matt: [00:31:22] I'm just amazed that it's up 40 per cent. I think, you know, like over that period, I remember someone said I got my friend to sign up and now they're over 40 per cent on GoPro and like, they didn't pay for it. They're up more than 40 per cent. [00:31:31][9.3]

Bryce: [00:31:32] Got a limited. Yeah, yeah. [00:31:34][1.2]

Matt: [00:31:34] Infonet. So now that's interesting that the ETF space is really intriguing to us to talk about. So I'll leave it to you [00:31:40][6.2]

Bryce: [00:31:40] that I know far [00:31:41][0.7]

Alec: [00:31:41] away now I know we're here to hear from you. We are not from Bryce every other. [00:31:46][4.4]

Bryce: [00:31:46] I think the big one is the. Yeah, sorry. [00:31:51][4.8]

Bryce: [00:31:52] The big one is the VIX right now. It's a stock that you I'd love to be able to get the message up and show everyone. But you messaged message, Alison. I think early in the piece when Covid was hitting and you said, are you trading the VIX? And we're like now. And I'm not saying the VIX. And then and then it just went not on. [00:32:09][17.5]

Alec: [00:32:10] Do you want to explain what the VIX is? I was just [00:32:12][1.4]

Bryce: [00:32:12] going to get Matt to do exactly [00:32:14][1.7]

Matt: [00:32:14] that. So the VIX is actually the CBOE, the Chicago Options, the Board of Options Options Board Exchange, Volatility Index and measures. It's quite complex, but it's essentially the fear index. It measures volatility in the market and the perceived fear or the movement in the market. And it's actually technically it measures a strip of options over the S&P complex, the S&P options. It gets like it's very, very, very derivative. [00:32:37][23.5]

Alec: [00:32:38] You might need to explain your explanation. [00:32:39][1.0]

Bryce: [00:32:39] Yeah, no, exactly. [00:32:40][0.6]

Matt: [00:32:41] It's let's just call it the keep calling it the VIX, the fear index. So does measures people's perception of future market movement. So when the shit hits the fan, the VIX generally goes up. And so what happened was that the pandemic started new start and you start to see the VIX climb. And then as soon as I think it's actually when the US lowered rates, when the Fed lowered rates, people will be like, this is actually serious. And then it just went. So it had the reverse impact. And then as soon as the market started falling, people rush to buy, you know, exposure over the volatility. So things start to go down. They get an exponential payoff. So the VIX normally trades between a level of like 10 and 20, historically 20 being on the high. If it's a band, ten being you know, it's piece [00:33:24][42.5]

Bryce: [00:33:24] you're talking Dollars. [00:33:25][0.6]

Matt: [00:33:25] You're talking at a level. It's it's an index level. So the and I think it got somewhere, you know, I don't want to get eighty maybe or something. [00:33:33][7.6]

Bryce: [00:33:33] Well, I'm looking at the stock price and say from the start of March, the the VIX was great. TV is the stock ticker TV, IEX. It was trading on the Nasdaq at 119 Dollars and then over the period of the market crash, it went up about 560 percent to just shy of 700 bucks. [00:33:53][19.9]

Matt: [00:33:53] Yeah. So, no, it's [00:33:55][1.0]

Bryce: [00:33:55] it's one of those stocks that you've really got to pay attention to because it hit the high and then equally fell just as fast and is now back to kind of where we are. So I guess from your point of view, when you're trading something like this, how do you think about it? [00:34:10][14.6]

Matt: [00:34:10] Put your seatbelt on [00:34:11][0.7]

Bryce: [00:34:13] like it's not a buy and hold. [00:34:14][0.8]

Bryce: [00:34:15] That's yeah, that's what I was going to say. Yeah. [00:34:16][1.4]

Matt: [00:34:17] There's a very firm warning on these instruments to make sure you realise they're not for long term investing. We actually put a warning on on stake just to make sure you're aware of. That's good. Yeah. No, it's [00:34:27][10.8]

Alec: [00:34:28] you should put that on Tesla. [00:34:28][0.6]

Bryce: [00:34:29] Yeah. Don't sell this stock. [00:34:31][1.4]

Bryce: [00:34:32] And workshy warning could be boring. [00:34:34][1.5]

Matt: [00:34:36] So, yeah. I mean, I don't look at the TV expert, so I think it's probably wrong to look at the VIX is derivative enough and t VIX is another derivative of that. The VIX index is what you want to be looking at. VIX is, you know, it's like a leveraged version of the VIX and it resets on a daily basis. So it measures the daily returns. So yeah, I'm just looking at the VIX, the actual index in it. Yeah, it was, it hit eighty three or just under eighty three on March 16. Like that is just I think that's higher than anything in the GFC. Wow. From memory so that you know it's a rule of thumb of around sixteen. So sixteen represents a one day perceived move. Right. So at eighty it's assuming at least five per cent a day of volatility for the entire period of those futures. It's really complicated. But if you measure the VIX at sixteen, it means that the implied the market will generally move on average around one per cent. [00:35:24][48.1]

Alec: [00:35:25] I'm not going to pretend I understand that. I'm just going to assume that if it's high, it's hitting there. [00:35:30][4.8]

Matt: [00:35:31] Yeah, I mean, look, it's it's gone from eighty to thirty now, [00:35:34][2.6]

Alec: [00:35:35] so we're all good. [00:35:35][0.4]

Bryce: [00:35:36] It's still elevated, but it's still still elevated. [00:35:37][1.9]

Matt: [00:35:38] It feels like people don't follow it out of the woods. But it's like, well, the federal come to our rescue. So it's not a lady. [00:35:44][5.3]

Alec: [00:35:44] Yeah. Not to go back to the Fed, but that I think is the biggest risk in the market. Forget coronavirus, forget Trump, the moral hazard that has been created for businesses to just. Are dumb things and think the feds got out like Boeing, terribly run business for the last year, needed support. You know, the feds stepped in and they got what they needed. And if, you know, they would have thrown money at them, like, it just feels like that's the biggest thing. Like why would you be irresponsible, say, oh, these guys [00:36:14][29.3]

Bryce: [00:36:14] just buy back your shares, get as much debt as possible when times are five much back, get [00:36:20][5.3]

Alec: [00:36:20] a massive bonus. If things go wrong, the Fed will step in. [00:36:23][3.4]

Bryce: [00:36:24] I think you're in the wrong job. You got a plan. [00:36:26][2.3]

Alec: [00:36:28] S&P 500 companies, if you're [00:36:29][1.8]

Bryce: [00:36:31] available to run the gauntlet [00:36:33][2.0]

Alec: [00:36:34] at some point, is going to break at some point, you know, there will be someone who isn't as forgiving or the US will be embroiled in a trade war with China and the need to protect their currency. And they can't just print it can't go on forever or Bryce will finally win the argument. And Bitcoin will be the currency of choice and they won't have the ability to print like, you know, something will something's going to give at some point. [00:36:55][20.2]

Bryce: [00:36:55] Speaking of currency, a couple of currency ETFs to hit stake platform anyway. So there's the Ayuda ETF if you want to track the price of the ad. The Great Britain pound, obviously the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and the yen out of all of those currencies. Question for both of you, which one would you be backing in [00:37:13][17.7]

Alec: [00:37:13] Holland side again? Are you they [00:37:14][1.2]

Bryce: [00:37:15] are the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc or the yen. And what are you backing in? If you're going long, long a currency? [00:37:22][7.3]

Alec: [00:37:23] I'm going to go out of coronavirus. There's going to be massive infrastructure bills in a lot of countries, in particular in China like that. There's no better way to stimulate the. [00:37:34][10.9]

Bryce: [00:37:35] Yeah, same with America. One trillion infrastructure. [00:37:37][2.0]

Alec: [00:37:37] Yeah. And I think Australia, you know, like with our exports to China are commodity exports to China. There might be a spike in demand potentially. Oil does a massive turnaround in Canada as well, but probably not. There's enough in storage to last a lifetime. It sounds [00:37:52][14.3]

Bryce: [00:37:52] like. I need an answer. [00:37:53][0.7]

Bryce: [00:37:53] I'm going to say I'm going to I'm going to stay true blue. I'm going to say Australia. Do you have an answer? Right. [00:37:59][5.6]

Matt: [00:38:00] Can I plead the fifth? [00:38:01][1.2]

Bryce: [00:38:03] Sure. Yeah. I don't I don't I don't get the currency, but the [00:38:08][4.7]

Matt: [00:38:08] world has just been turned upside down in more ways than one. [00:38:11][2.5]

Bryce: [00:38:11] So, I mean, if there's anything we're going to go short. It would be the US dollar. You would think [00:38:15][3.4]

Matt: [00:38:15] they're not at this level now. They do need a weaker dollar. Right. If they're going to start, you know, pushing. [00:38:20][4.7]

Alec: [00:38:21] Oh, they're doing the right thing to get one. [00:38:22][1.7]

Matt: [00:38:24] Yeah. Yeah. As I said, I'm going with my constitutional right [00:38:28][4.1]

Bryce: [00:38:28] if I call [00:38:29][0.3]

Alec: [00:38:29] federal Trump on Twitter this morning, threatened a complete decoupling with China. And if they actually just cut ties completely, who's going to be buying all of the US's debt other than the Fed? And then it's like, well, then the US is in real trouble. [00:38:44][15.0]

Matt: [00:38:45] You know, obviously, the news in Australia today as well. There's a lot of stuff on the horizon that the world's been. Just as I said, it's been turned upside down. So, you know, if you can sit, you'll see massive swings in currency. Still, you'll see I don't know if there's a trend that's been there. The Aussie dollar has obviously gone a touch 55, I think. Yeah. And that's just touch seventy. And now it's a little bit below seven. It's like sixty nine. Yeah. I just yeah. This is, this is beyond my pay going around Australia. [00:39:09][24.9]

Alec: [00:39:10] I mean my approach with currencies and I'm interested to hear yours, obviously you trade and so you're a little bit more short term. So potentially currency fluctuations are more important. But I'm sort of like it'll even out over time as long as I'm not buying in a massive hire, a massive lawyer, I don't think about it too much. [00:39:27][16.8]

Matt: [00:39:27] Yeah, I'm the same as you. I definitely think that there are certain times you need to be careful with currencies like with the dollar and the Aussie dollar, where parity was a really, I think, an amazing opportunity. You're seeing newspapers, right, that it's going to Dollars fifteen years now. It's going the other way. And I was in the US in 2001 for university and it hit forty eight. You know, that was around September eleven. I don't know if that was a factor. Was always in the like in the fifties at the time, but there are certain levels in which, you know, you can get very comfortable to get long the Aussie and to get short the Aussie as an Australian. But I'm much the same as you are stuck in between. It's just I want to have a little bit of broad exposure, so I'll keep some USD and a lot of obviously earnings and net worth in Aussie dollars. I just got to try to find that balance. But there are certain levels in which you want to participate, I think. Yeah. [00:40:12][44.6]

Bryce: [00:40:13] So just to kind of round out this conversation, we've [00:40:15][2.5]

Bryce: [00:40:16] I've got two more questions. That's fine. [00:40:17][1.3]

Bryce: [00:40:18] That's fine. Ren. We'll leave them for next week or so to start rounding out the conversation. There are a few new ETFs, but format one caught my attention and I'm not sure if it's just unfortunately timed, but it's called the US Global Jetzt ETF. It's access to the global airline industry. Now, you could say that as an opportunity to sell high. Yeah, a lot of people, a lot of listeners in the community, you know, have been looking at Qantas and the like Webjet Webjet flights. Obviously, though, on the flip side, Buffett's come out and sold all of his stake in airlines, so. [00:40:54][35.9]

Alec: [00:40:54] But David Portnoy borders [00:40:55][1.0]

Bryce: [00:40:56] so cool, [00:40:57][1.4]

Bryce: [00:40:58] so an interesting ATFP, but if you are looking to get exposure to the global airline industry, this is a new one that sort of piqued my interest. [00:41:07][9.1]

Matt: [00:41:08] I can talk about that one. Yeah. Your thoughts. I mean, this is actually a request from our community. Oh, really? Yeah. So we we often get requests for stocks or thematic investments through ETFs and we're really supportive. You know, the whole thing is accessing the opportunities that you believe in or you want to invest in. So I love the fact that people are reaching out and asking for. Yes. This one is really interesting. Obviously, it's it's a broad way to get exposure to the airline industry. And obviously with things as bad as they are, could they get any worse? Who knows? And I think the play here from, you know, those people that wanted to invest in it was, wow, with one ETF, we can get full coverage over the whole industry. So, you know, it's a little sort of, you know, buy when others are fearful sort of situation again. And, you know, from a thesis point of view that what they were thinking [00:41:49][41.3]

Alec: [00:41:50] that faces was exactly Buffett's thesis. He took the four biggest airlines in the states that had all been consolidating over the last however many decades and said, I don't want to make a bet on any airline. I think the number of people flying is going to increase and the industry as a whole will do well. But I guess the amount of money he's playing with, he can't just put it in and he has to buy 10 percent of all the big four airlines. But for us plebs, we don't have 130 billion dollars in cash. We can just do that with one trade through an ETF like this. [00:42:21][31.6]

Matt: [00:42:22] Yeah, absolutely. And and that's what's amazing about the US. I think we've got 700 odd ETFs on stake. [00:42:26][4.5]

Bryce: [00:42:27] I was just going to say it surprises me every day. Well, not every day. That's a lie. [00:42:31][4.5]

Bryce: [00:42:32] I'm not saying he wakes up [00:42:35][3.0]

Bryce: [00:42:35] just how many ETFs are becoming available at the moment. And, you know, I did some digging around just what is available in Australia alone. And it blew my mind. How many ETFs are out there trading on the market? So I think it's a great thing. And yeah, on the platform, there's so much opportunity you can almost just think of an industry and you could get access to it in an easy sort of sort of trade. [00:42:56][20.5]

Matt: [00:42:57] Yeah, the whole space is, you know, really shifted from a financial adviser managing your money and putting it into ten stocks, because now you don't you could literally deal with that. And that, to me, is what's so exciting about what's happened with, you know, obviously the stake. But there's so many other digital brokers and there's even historical online trading platforms that just allow you to manage your own money. And just I think your listeners I'm guessing I'm hoping I'm probably smarter than their advisor. So they would probably want to do it themselves. And these are the sort of products that allow you to do it. So, yeah, I believe airlines are too cheap and they're always going to be always going to be flying around the world. So this is a really quick, easy way for me to do it. I don't need someone else to go and pay five or six times brokerage in and out and work out which stocks. I can just do it in one fell swoop. [00:43:40][43.4]

Alec: [00:43:41] Speaking of, there'll always be more people flying. I've got a bet with a mate. He doesn't think that the number of people flying will ever reach pré Covid high. I'm interested to get your thoughts on that. [00:43:53][12.1]

Bryce: [00:43:53] I don't. [00:43:54][0.2]

Matt: [00:43:54] I disagree. [00:43:54][0.1]

Alec: [00:43:55] You think it will top it? [00:43:56][1.4]

Bryce: [00:43:57] Yeah, of course. Yeah, I just. Population growth. Yeah. Well yeah. [00:44:00][3.0]

Matt: [00:44:01] I mean if we do find a vaccine or you know, like a treatment, like the sentiment shift significantly and people probably want to travel, they want to see the world, they will obviously be that local element of travelling and seeing, you know, where you are and spending more time closer to home. But, you know, that will only last for so I [00:44:17][16.2]

Bryce: [00:44:18] can understand the argument around perhaps business businesses not necessarily wanting to send as many people on travel trips right now and maybe over the next three, five years as they've realised that you can probably do a lot more virtually. But at the end of the day, it's eventually going to turn around. When things are good, people like I'm going to go [00:44:35][17.9]

Alec: [00:44:36] I think I think we have like humanity has a massive, like, habit of mine reverting and like we forget, you know, this period and we just go back to normal and it'll happen. Like people want to travel, businesses want to do it face to face meetings. It'll just [00:44:52][15.9]

Matt: [00:44:52] happen. And you think with the airlines, if one or two, you know, obviously within in Australia, the virgin in trouble, if you're a strong airline, you're in such a strong position in terms of, you know, picking up, you know, safety, even, you know, I got Virgin frequent flyer points and I was like, what's the story with Ayesha? You know, trust is, you know, they're essentially a currency and you need to trust the back up behind. And so, you know, strong brand and airlines, it's, you know, enduring will always be in a strong position. [00:45:18][25.8]

Alec: [00:45:18] I think the whole Virgin Australia conversation is interesting because what they're buying is one of the potential buyers and then there's another one. But either way, it sounds like we're going to keep our frequent flyer points, which is [00:45:29][10.8]

Matt: [00:45:30] the [00:45:30][0.0]

Bryce: [00:45:30] question is what what do we get for the. [00:45:31][1.4]

Matt: [00:45:32] Yes, like one flight may have cost you twenty five thousand points and now it costs you fifty five thousand point. So I think they've been devalued. We just haven't been able to use them. Yes, yeah. Yeah. [00:45:41][9.4]

Alec: [00:45:42] So I said I've got two more questions. I'm noting the time. Did you have anything else. [00:45:47][4.2]

Bryce: [00:45:47] Bryce no. I'm happy for you to [00:45:48][1.5]

Bryce: [00:45:48] round it at Ren. All right. [00:45:49][0.9]

Alec: [00:45:49] So the first one is looking at this state data since the march. Twenty three, bottom three of the top four most bought companies are big U.S. tech stocks. We got Microsoft, the second most bought Apple is third most bought and Amazon as fourth most bought. And at the start of the year, I made a bold prediction, which I was not so confident about. But despite covid, it feels like it could be coming into fruition in 2019. We saw the first one trillion dollar company and I made the prediction that would say a two trillion dollar company by the end of 2020. The scorecard as of today is Apple is one point five two trillion, Amazon at one point three two trillion, Microsoft at one point four nine trillion, and then alphabet rounding out the four nine hundred ninety billion soft. So here's my question for both of you. If you had to put money on one of those for hitting two trillion, who do you reckon would get their first Apple? [00:46:49][59.1]

Bryce: [00:46:49] Apple? [00:46:49][0.0]

Matt: [00:46:50] Yeah, you know, the closest to it [00:46:51][1.4]

Bryce: [00:46:52] is the safest bet. [00:46:53][0.6]

Alec: [00:46:53] Microsoft is one point for nine nodes. It's pretty close behind. [00:46:56][3.2]

Matt: [00:46:57] It just doesn't have that growth in it. I don't think, you know, Apple's has got a brand and a sexiness and it could do something unique and it could go into a different sphere that could really you know, that's still a 33 percent move you need in in 2020 to get there. [00:47:09][12.3]

Bryce: [00:47:09] Anything's possible. Anything is possible. It's going to happen by August. [00:47:13][3.8]

Matt: [00:47:15] Yeah, Apple as well. [00:47:16][0.8]

Bryce: [00:47:16] I think Apple I just I think they were the first and Amazon was the Apple was the first trillion and backing them in the second. All right. [00:47:25][8.6]

Alec: [00:47:25] Well, do you want to put a beer on it? You take Apple, I'll take the field. Sure done. [00:47:29][3.6]

Matt: [00:47:29] Does that include Apple, the field or just the others? The Altec, [00:47:33][3.3]

Bryce: [00:47:33] everyone else, Apple. Yeah, but if I [00:47:36][2.3]

Bryce: [00:47:36] get it, you get you give me a case. [00:47:37][1.1]

Bryce: [00:47:37] No, no, not one bit. All right, [00:47:40][2.8]

Alec: [00:47:41] then my last question. Remember in 2019, how we're talking about the yield curve inverting. It feels like a long time ago. But for people unfamiliar, when the three year bond and the 10 year bond that the US Treasury bonds inverts, the yield on the three year is higher than the 10 year. That's. That's right. Yeah. Yeah. Historically, that's been recession indicator. And normally what happens is in the next one or two years, a recession happens. My last question is, do you think the yield curve inversion caused the coronavirus recession? [00:48:12][30.9]

Bryce: [00:48:14] No. [00:48:14][0.0]

Alec: [00:48:16] What do you think? It just got very lucky that this came out of nowhere and we saw a recession. [00:48:21][5.0]

Bryce: [00:48:21] What I want to know is statistically, does this count towards the argument? Yeah. Yeah. Do you know what I mean? Like. It inverted and we've now subsequently had a recession, but when you look at the numbers, do they put an asterisk next to it to go? The recession was [00:48:36][14.8]

Bryce: [00:48:36] coronaviruses like the AFL premiership? Yeah, I'm not talking about this whole other comment. [00:48:42][6.0]

Bryce: [00:48:43] Yeah, yeah. And we can finish on this because it's not a football podcast. But my feeling is that whoever wins this year is going to be hard done by it's not it's not real. It needs an asterisk next to it. Same with the Brownlow, unfortunately. And I pray to God it's not going to be Essendon. [00:48:59][16.5]

Bryce: [00:49:01] I'm pretty confident that what [00:49:03][1.5]

Alec: [00:49:04] we didn't always have a 23 round season. It always changes. We didn't always have twenty five minute quarters. A premier as a premier. [00:49:10][6.2]

Bryce: [00:49:11] Yeah. What are your thoughts about big fan [00:49:13][2.0]

Matt: [00:49:13] who is going to come back this week every week, one week at a time, right? Yeah. So we'll say, [00:49:18][4.9]

Bryce: [00:49:19] well, thanks for joining us today, as always. It's a pleasure to chat to get an understanding of what's going on over in the States now. We do. Are you a bit of a plug? You do have a new offer going for guys signing up to stake, which is you kind of mentioned it there, which is the three stocks. So to close it out. You want to give us a bit of a wrap on on that and then we can leave it there. [00:49:40][21.5]

Matt: [00:49:40] Yeah. So obviously, you know, it strikes you us brokerage and we're about giving people access to the opportunities in the US market. So when you sign up to stake and fund your account within 24 hours of being ready, we give you a free stock of GoPro, Dropbox or NOK. Really straightforward sign up. You take five minutes, you know, fund your account if you like what we're doing, get into the market and we help you along the way. [00:50:02][21.5]

Bryce: [00:50:02] And I use Equity Mates as your referral code to do so. But it's a pretty good offer if you're just starting out and get thrown Nike, GoPro or Dropbox as a nice welcome gift. Pretty rare for something like that to happen. So sign [00:50:17][14.4]

Alec: [00:50:17] up for sort of a throwaway account [00:50:18][1.3]

Bryce: [00:50:19] for your parents. [00:50:21][1.9]

Bryce: [00:50:23] You know as well as I said. Matt, appreciate your time. Always good to chat. And we look forward to catching up again. [00:50:29][5.8]

Matt: [00:50:29] Cheers. Thanks for having me. Thanks for that. [00:50:30][1.4]

Speaker 5: [00:50:31] Thanks for listening to Equity Mates investing podcast production of Equity Mates Media. Please remember that everything here in Equity Mates investment podcast was general advice. Only the content has been prepared without knowing your personal objectives, specific financial circumstances or goals. The host of Equity Mates Investment Podcast may maintain positions in the companies discussed before considering any investment. Please read the product disclosure statement and consider speaking to a licenced financial professional. [00:50:31][0.0]

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