EM Talk: We’re Back For 2018 – Why Amazon Struggles & More Bold Predictions

HOSTS Alec Renehan & Bryce Leske|21 January, 2018

Meet your hosts

  • Alec Renehan

    Alec developed an interest in investing after realising he was spending all that he was earning. Investing became his form of 'forced saving'. While his first investment, Slater and Gordon (SGH), was a resounding failure, he learnt a lot from that experience. He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can.
  • Bryce Leske

    Bryce has had an interest in the stock market since his parents encouraged him to save 50c a fortnight from the age of 5. Once he had saved $500 he bought his first stock - BKI - a Listed Investment Company (LIC), and since then hasn't stopped. He hopes that Equity Mates can help make investing understandable and accessible. He loves the Essendon Football Club, and lives in Sydney.

We’re back from our break and ready for a big 2018! What better way to start the year than to make some bold predictions about the year ahead and put some friendly bets on. We also put our stock picking abilities on the line as we each pick one stock to go head-to-head in 2018. In this episode you’ll learn: • When Bryce expects the US market to crash (specifically to the day!) • Why Alec thinks Amazon in Australia will be “all huff but no puff” in 2018 • Why Bryce thinks 2018 could be a year of reckoning for Donald Trump • Alec’s bold prediction for self-driving cars • An Australian self-driving car company taking the fight to Google, Uber, Tesla and the rest • Stocks on our radar for 2018 and the stock picks for our ‘mega bet’ Stocks and Resources Discussed: Stocks • iSelect (ASX: ISU) • Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) • Saracen Mineral (ASX: SAR) • Freelancer.com (ASX: FLN) • ResMed (ASX: RMD) • US Equities Strong Bear ETF (ASX: BBUS) Resources • Link to previous Equity Mates Thought Starters (website URL: http://equitymates.com/thoughtstarters/) • Jeremy Grantham – Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up(Also we’re sorry for the poor audio in places – the recording cut in and out at different times. Thanks for bearing with us for this episode. We’re doing all we can to make sure it doesn’t happen again)


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Bryce: [00:01:27] Equity Mates episode number 20, I eye popping, everybody is 12 and 18, and we are back from our holiday. As always, I'm joined by Equity Mate Ren. How are you going? [00:01:39][12.8]

Alec: [00:01:40] Bryce I am very excited to be back for 2018. [00:01:43][3.0]

Bryce: [00:01:44] Likewise. We've had a nice break a few weeks off, four weeks, thereabouts. Christmas, New Year's and now we're back bigger than ever with some exciting things planned for 2013. We've had to think about how we've gone over the last 12 months. We've chatted to some of our diehard fans. They've given us some great feedback. We're ready to smash the investing world of 2013. So here we are. How was your break? [00:02:09][25.0]

Alec: [00:02:10] It was good. It was good. Didn't think about investing at all, to be honest with you. Yeah, but, you know, sometimes you need a agreed. Any highlights went out to Port macquarie for the week for our very few international listeners. That's on the mid-north coast of New South Wales by the beach. Good to hear. [00:02:29][19.4]

Bryce: [00:02:29] And New Year's [00:02:30][0.4]

Alec: [00:02:30] news, pretty standard. Just lined up for something that we didn't get into another bar so well. [00:02:37][6.7]

Bryce: [00:02:38] The good news is that we're now 17 weeks away from the start of the AFL season, I'm pretty sure. So maybe even less. [00:02:44][6.8]

Alec: [00:02:45] Maybe early life? I think so, yeah. [00:02:48][3.5]

Bryce: [00:02:49] And then counting down the days my holiday involved was a few days with the family back to Sydney for Christmas, sorry for New Year's Eve and then straight back to work. So like you, nothing to think about. [00:03:02][12.6]

Alec: [00:03:02] We've gone from three months of holidays during uni to a week, so making that adjustment meant fun. [00:03:08][6.4]

Bryce: [00:03:09] All right. So as we said, 2018 New Year, new things. I just want to quickly kick off with that. We've changed Equity Mates thoughts, Dollars a.m.. So if you haven't signed up to that already, definitely jump on and sign up. You can sign up at our website, Equity Mates dot com. It will give you a new insight of five insights each week into your mailbox, plus some stuff to help you along your journey of investing so that get stuck in [00:03:36][27.1]

Bryce: [00:04:31] So moving on, we done our holiday caps. So 2018, I mean, what's going to happen? We started twenty seventeen with a few ideas in mind of what might eventuate. And as you finished the with twenty seventeen the year it wasn't. So it's sounds like you're a bit disappointed with had 2071. So look what we're we going to do with eighteen is this episode where you're going to have a bit of a competition with each other and put forward a few bets. Yeah. About what we think is going to eventuate in 2019. [00:05:06][35.3]

Alec: [00:05:07] Yeah. Every man and his dog has done it. Two dozen predictions on a cool podcast or a blog post or whatever. I've got them all here and we wouldn't be good content producers equated to jump on that bandwagon to do our own twenty eighteen predictions as well. [00:05:23][15.8]

Bryce: [00:05:24] Correct. So we're going to give a couple of bets about what we reckon is going to happen in twenty nineteen. We're then going to give a bit of an idea of what stocks are on our radar for twenty nineteen and then finish off with a mega megabit and choose one stock H that we think will perform well over the year and end of twenty we'll will with the winner. [00:05:47][23.6]

Alec: [00:05:48] And so what better way to do this than with no research coming off a four week break. So bear with us. [00:05:55][7.3]

Bryce: [00:05:56] So in framing this, I think the way that I'm gonna approach this right and you can you can say otherwise, but I'm going to sort of give a bit of a commentary on what professionals are sort of saying at the moment and then frame my bets around those professionals that I have been following for a while now. [00:06:14][18.1]

Alec: [00:06:15] You've done more research than me, [00:06:16][1.3]

Bryce: [00:06:19] so I'm going to give everyone an idea of what I'm going to be looking at. I'm thinking in terms of 2013, I'm thinking training. I'm thinking sort of geopolitical story, this segment is called Babette's. The idea is that I'm going to say something that I think is going to happen in 2013 related to the stock market or the business world. And if Ren decides he doesn't agree with that, he will take my bet. And then we'll say at the end of the year, who owes owns each other? Morbius Yeah. Do you want to kick off? Yeah. [00:06:51][32.0]

Alec: [00:06:51] One I'll kick off or I'll kick off with a pretty straight down the line once someone gets the idea for the game. First prediction, the Australian share market will beat the American share market. [00:07:02][10.7]

Bryce: [00:07:02] Can I ask for more information? [00:07:04][1.2]

Alec: [00:07:06] So I think the Australian share market, driven by growing commodities prices, a housing market that hasn't yet collapsed and interest rates remaining low, especially comparatively low. I think the Australian share market will be better than the American share market in twenty eighteen. [00:07:24][18.1]

Bryce: [00:07:25] I am going to pause on my reaction to that and ask the question, what differences do you think have occurred from this time last year to this time this year? Because the US stock market significantly outperformed the Australian stock market last year. [00:07:45][19.7]

Alec: [00:07:45] So now you're making me talk you out of taking a bet with me? [00:07:48][3.2]

Bryce: [00:07:50] I am going to I'm going to take that bet. [00:07:54][4.6]

Alec: [00:07:54] Right. So would it be actually not that I know it's not a it's not a bad call like a lot of people think US markets in a for good year. [00:08:05][10.8]

Bryce: [00:08:06] But the reason that I'm almost going to have to assume that now is because I think which is my next one [00:08:13][6.8]

Alec: [00:08:14] , but what is it? [00:08:16][1.1]

Bryce: [00:08:16] I think we're going to see not only a correction, but a crash in the stock market this year. How do you [00:08:22][5.8]

Bryce: [00:08:22] define it from [00:08:23][0.5]

Bryce: [00:08:24] anything over the case? So I don't have a technical. [00:08:27][3.3]

Alec: [00:08:28] How do you define it and [00:08:29][1.0]

Bryce: [00:08:29] what's the correction? 10 percent? Yeah, I'm saying upwards of 20 percent. [00:08:35][5.9]

Alec: [00:08:35] So the bet is that the US market will collapse 20 percent. Yes. So you're saying 21 percent in over under 20 percent. No. Yes. Don't worry. [00:08:45][10.3]

Bryce: [00:08:47] Okay, we're on now. My reasons for this are around the assessments of future growth. [00:08:54][7.2]

Alec: [00:08:55] Yeah. [00:08:55][0.0]

Bryce: [00:08:56] And I think that people are going to finally realise that the growth that we've seen in the last 10 years has been artificially driven. And when that the drivers of that growth, the central banks, as they say they are going to do. I don't know if they actually will, but say they're going to start hitting back on this quantitative easing and start selling all these bonds, selling all this stuff back into asset, into the into the markets. I think that that will make people reassess the valuations of a lot of companies. [00:09:30][33.5]

Alec: [00:09:30] And just to be clear what we're saying. But the thirty first of December 2010. [00:09:35][4.9]

Bryce: [00:09:36] Yes. Yes. So I can put a date. [00:09:38][1.6]

Alec: [00:09:39] And if we can conclude this is the data, I'll allow you to give now the indictment of the six party element of the case, if you know. But if it's any other day, you got it. All right. I'll take a day and I'll I'll get it for you. [00:10:06][27.1]

Bryce: [00:10:07] No, I'm going to go month. [00:10:07][0.8]

Alec: [00:10:08] First year. That's why I didn't say that. [00:10:09][1.5]

Bryce: [00:10:10] So I think September. I got it. Yeah. And I will go the fifth day. [00:10:19][8.8]

Alec: [00:10:20] Why? [00:10:20][0.0]

Bryce: [00:10:20] It was because I think that there's a lag time going on at the moment. And from what I'm reading and from the people I'm following, I'm generally inclined to believe what they're saying. And when the bond market that the market is going to recession, bear market and historically speaking, and this is the big issue, but historically speaking, that usually tends to have the effect of pushing the stock market up quite drastically over the short term and then also has a lag period of about four to six months for then a correction to occur. So I'm purely based around that. And I and I'm also basing it around the fact that a lot of people have been saying that we're expecting that semi decent year this year. So rather than say something a little earlier in the hedging their bets and going something a bit lighter towards the end of the year, [00:11:17][56.5]

Alec: [00:11:17] you know, though, if my bet comes off and your bet comes off, all of you a bit, but, you know, that's. [00:11:24][7.0]

Bryce: [00:11:28] Speaking of that, I think that will apply to the Australian stock market as well. [00:11:32][3.7]

Alec: [00:11:32] Margaret, interesting. I will say what you were saying about the stock market rising, precipitating a major fall in thoughts Dollars. This week, we published an article that Jeremy Grantham really noted investor wrote. He picked the crash in 2000 and the crash in 2008. And he talked about melts up as opposed to a meltdown where stock prices rise, but they're precipitating a major. Yeah. So you can check out all editions of Folkston on our website. Definitely a good article to read. If you want to get some more insight into a Bryce of just one thing that [00:12:10][37.9]

Bryce: [00:12:10] I've come across, a great analogy just to give those that are kind of unaware about what we might be talking about. This has been going on for quite a while now. There's been a lot of chatter. There's so much stuff going on. And this guy called James Rickards, who I follow, has given a great analogy to understand why I have made this bet. So and this is quoting him to understand why 2008 might unfold catastrophically, we can begin with a simple metaphor. Imagine a magnificent mansion built with the finest materials and craftsmanship and furnished with the most expensive couches and carpets decorated with fine art. Now imagine this mansion is built on quicksand. It will have a brief shining moment and then sink slowly before finally, finally collapsing under its own weight. That's a metaphor for how about the hard analysis? Well, here it is. Start with debt. Much of the good news described above was achieved not with real productivity, but with mountains of debt, including central bank liabilities. In a recent article, Yale scholar Stephen Roach points out that between 2008 and 2017, the combined balance sheet of the central bank of the US, Japan and the Eurozone expanded by eight point three trillion, while nominal GDP in those same economies expanded two point one trillion. So what happens when you print eight point three trillion in money and only get two point one trillion in growth? What happened to the extra six point two trillion of money printed in these Ren? [00:13:39][88.6]

Alec: [00:13:40] A lot went into equity markets and bond markets, correct? [00:13:44][3.7]

Bryce: [00:13:45] The answer is that went into assets, stocks, bonds, emerging market debt and real estate or bank pumped up by central bank money printing. So what makes 2013 different from the prior 10 years? The answer is that this is the year the central banks stop printing and take away the punch bowl. [00:14:02][17.1]

Alec: [00:14:03] They go, well, yeah, we shall. We shall say, all right, Ren. Okay, this one is a little bit closer to home and one of the most hyped stories in twenty seventeen was Amazon coming to Australia. So my second bold prediction for twenty eighteen is Amazon will be all hot and no pop. What do I mean by that. I think Amazon is going to have a shocker of a year in Australia in twenty eighteen. I think you will see a lot of the fears about Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi and stuff being well overblown. And you know, Amazon, they will sell some stuff to Australian consumers. But I think what we're going to find is that there's no better place logistically than any Australian retailer and they can't compete on price to the same extent that they were able to do in America. And so what I think we'll say, and I know this one's a tough one to measure, but I think what we'll see is by the end of twenty eighteen, when people write their twenty eighteen and review articles, we'll see more people talking about how Amazon require that Amazon disrupted Australian retail. [00:15:13][70.4]

Bryce: [00:15:14] I'm going to have to agree with you. Oh, look, I'll only agree with you from the perspective of food retail. Definitely not enough to include retail at the moment. The only reason I say I have to agree with you is because there was this huge lead up to them coming and now I've seen nothing about them. Yeah, I know that. But like, they haven't done enough for me to persuade me to change my online shopping habits them. And I don't and I haven't seen how they're trying to do that. Yeah, I don't really see the advertising anywhere or anything like that. I don't know if they're relying on their brand name to do so. I did do a trial run shop over Christmas through Amazon to test the waters. [00:16:00][45.7]

Alec: [00:16:00] People did, I think [00:16:01][0.6]

Bryce: [00:16:01] and I wasn't blown away with their pricing. I was impressed with their guaranteed delivery times and they were guaranteeing delivery when other shops that I was looking at couldn't. However, I, as I said, wasn't blown away with price, which I think is the biggest call. And I think that's really, as I said, difficult in an Australian market. [00:16:23][21.7]

Alec: [00:16:23] Yeah, the. He has always been price range and convenience, their delivery is on time, it's reliable, and now that Amazon Prime and stuff, it's quicker than most people price. They're always better than their competitors range. And this is especially in the early days, they killed brick and mortar bookshops and seed shops because they could stock range that no one else could. And I think they'll get to all those three spots in Australia. But they had a really soft launch in terms of pricing and range convenience in Australia is difficult, given how we're set up geographically and obviously the experts. But I don't know if they have any particular expertise that Australian retailers don't have, and I think they'll get that. But I think right now, you know, they're just another retail overcrowded space. Yeah, yeah. [00:17:11][47.7]

Bryce: [00:17:12] And then macro economically, like, I don't know, in my opinion, if things pan out like they're going to, then I think all retailers have suffered a little bit. But we'll see what happens. [00:17:24][11.9]

Alec: [00:17:24] Yeah. And I think what we'll say is that and is going to have a lot bigger challenges than some backwater country in the middle of the Pacific, like, you know, not not that Australia aren't wealthy consumers, but there's twenty four million of us there in battle for their lives in India at the moment against Flipkart. Like they they are competing against regulators in America, trying to prove that they're not a monopoly and maybe be broken up like they they will not have their eye on the Australian ball in twenty eighteen. [00:17:53][28.3]

Bryce: [00:17:53] I mean, the size of the private is pretty small. Yeah. [00:17:56][2.4]

Alec: [00:17:56] What it's like to the big e-commerce incumbent in India, like it's an Indian company that's competing against Amazon. And, you know, most countries have had retail income and retailers in that country. The two examples where Amazon has been pretty comprehensively beaten, Canada and India really kind of surprising because you would have thought there's a lot of benefit from being really crazy in Canada. I don't know the name, but I think it's a lot of the French retailers in Canada have done a lot of Amazon. Wow. That's fast. Yeah. [00:18:31][34.9]

Bryce: [00:18:32] And they haven't attempted China. [00:18:33][1.0]

Alec: [00:18:34] I don't know if they're allowed to attempt to go up against Alibaba. Yeah. There you go. Yeah. Wow, wow. Yeah. That Flipkart, Amazon, Google. It's it's an interesting battle. Wow. [00:18:46][12.5]

Bryce: [00:18:47] Yeah. Bold prediction from myself is that in percentage terms the Woolworths stock price will outperform the Coles. [00:18:57][9.9]

Alec: [00:18:57] So that's a trick question posed as an honest right answer that Wesfarmers. So you're saying as a percentage [00:19:07][9.8]

Bryce: [00:19:08] you just think that's that's a game changer. What what? [00:19:11][3.4]

Alec: [00:19:11] Because are you saying Woollies will make Wesfarmers as a percentage, [00:19:15][3.9]

Bryce: [00:19:17] not with their coal, [00:19:17][0.3]

Alec: [00:19:18] they sold their coal. Oh, really? Yeah. Seven hundred dollars a month ago. Two weeks ago. [00:19:26][7.6]

Bryce: [00:19:26] Okay. Then bet still on. Yeah. In percentage terms, Woolworths will outperform Wesfarmers. [00:19:31][5.0]

Alec: [00:19:33] So this is really interesting. So it was obviously starts for a lower base because they've been beaten down of late, but well [00:19:40][7.6]

Bryce: [00:19:41] we're not at that lowest though where the lowest was Nikhat lowest was nineteen Dollars. It's now about twenty six. [00:19:47][6.4]

Alec: [00:19:48] Yeah. But it's still getting quite so I agree that the share price will go up. The interesting thing about the Wesfarmers share price is I don't think it will be driven by caldrons. Yeah, I think it will be driven by Bunnings results and specifically Bunnings results [00:20:03][15.5]

Bryce: [00:20:04] because they are getting hammered over [00:20:05][1.1]

Alec: [00:20:05] there. Well, that's the thing. So they're cute. They bought a whole bunch of home based shops and they're converting them to Bunnings shops. But the home base, the legacy shops are just bleeding money. And as I saw happen, I listened to the investor call for I think it was Q three results and all of them, you know, like Macquarie Bank, JP Morgan, all the analysts were just shredding the Wesfarmers for about home base. And how much money are we going to lose is going to become a sink for so, you know, billions of dollars. There was a lot of concern. And so, you know, if that continues to go south, then I think you're 100 percent right. But if they turn it around, Bunnings UK takes off and maybe investors will drive or not. [00:20:52][46.4]

Bryce: [00:20:53] I don't think that's going to happen this year. [00:20:54][1.0]

Bryce: [00:20:54] I'm not going to take this step. [00:20:55][1.0]

Bryce: [00:20:56] OK, so so far we're both one and one. [00:20:59][2.9]

Alec: [00:20:59] So you took my bet that the ASX on Wall Street. Yeah. And then I took your bet that [00:21:06][6.4]

Bryce: [00:21:07] the market about twenty one. And then we've I've [00:21:10][3.4]

Bryce: [00:21:11] you agreed that Amazon and you've agreed to go. Yeah. Okay. So we're on an even quite like that one bit. [00:21:21][9.6]

Alec: [00:21:22] Yeah. Well and it's. A case of do you think is the time to do that? Oh, yeah. Oh, Bryce will always be known for. [00:21:36][14.0]

Bryce: [00:21:39] Oh, I don't hope that it happens from a world perspective, but I kind of hope it happens. [00:21:44][5.1]

Alec: [00:21:44] Do you hang your hat on? Equity Mates subscribers will jump through the [00:21:49][4.5]

Bryce: [00:21:49] Can you imagine if I picked the day. [00:21:50][0.9]

Alec: [00:21:52] credibility. Now on trust and listen to you. Well, the lesson for any analysts out there is if you want to know where the next crash will come, you Bryce a couple of beers, put a microphone in front of it and just let him smoke grenades. [00:22:10][18.6]

Bryce: [00:22:11] University. So is it my turn? You go for it. All right. So this is very straightforward, very quantifiable. I think gold will hit one thousand four hundred dollars by the end of the year, [00:22:22][11.7]

Alec: [00:22:23] to be honest with you tonight, is that our ultimate goal is that [00:22:27][3.4]

Bryce: [00:22:28] I can tell you roughly one thousand three [00:22:31][3.5]

Alec: [00:22:32] hundred. So you think gold will rise to less than 10 percent this year? Yep. That's not a that's not a hugely ambitious call, especially if you're predicting a market crash. [00:22:44][11.6]

Bryce: [00:22:44] I know, but if you can, I'm going to be watching gold than you would say something like that. [00:22:51][6.8]

Alec: [00:22:52] It would have been bold to say that gold will rise more than Bitcoin in twenty eight. [00:22:56][4.5]

Bryce: [00:22:57] No, I've got a Bitcoin wallet, so I'll quickly get you the share price for the kind of spot price for gold. OK, so the spot price for gold will be US dollars, of course. One thousand three hundred and thirty dollars and seventy cents. Now before you take that bet, keep in mind [00:23:18][20.7]

Alec: [00:23:19] so you would expect that it would revert to me sometime soon. The market corrects gold as a store of value. It's a sixteen. [00:23:27][8.3]

Bryce: [00:23:28] I'm going to say fifteen hundred. Okay. All hinging on my initial bet coming off [00:23:33][5.4]

Alec: [00:23:34] the back side. That makes sense. That is true. All right, you're up. Okay. This one isn't so much about markets, but it is fascination of mine. Twenty eighteen will be the year of reckoning for self-driving cars. And how do we quantify that? I think we will have one jurisdiction around the world, legal, self-driving cars on the road, not for testing. [00:24:04][30.1]

Bryce: [00:24:05] What do you classify? Self-driving car [00:24:07][1.6]

Alec: [00:24:07] somewhere where I can have a beer while sitting in the front [00:24:11][3.2]

Bryce: [00:24:11] seat. Wow. So you're saying I'm way over the limit? [00:24:17][6.0]

Alec: [00:24:18] This is probably a big one, because even if your car was driving itself, they'd probably still be able to drink. So let's say and you would take realistically, let's say I define self-driving car as somewhere that can get A to B without me touching the steering. [00:24:34][15.6]

Bryce: [00:24:34] But you will still have to adhere to current licence laws. Yeah, I think that exists now. It doesn't exist, but it's not on the road. [00:24:44][10.0]

Alec: [00:24:45] You so you think the technology is important. [00:24:46][1.4]

Alec: [00:24:47] Yeah, definitely. OK, whether or not this is true. [00:24:51][4.1]

Alec: [00:24:51] Yeah. So that's the thing. So if the technology is in place which know since I have Google then no they don't, they don't like we're ready to put this in a car. [00:25:00][9.2]

Bryce: [00:25:01] No, they've got the tech [00:25:01][0.8]

Alec: [00:25:02] to do it. So I'd look this up. There's forty two companies that are testing self-driving technology in California roads, but no one is at the point where they're like, we're ready to go. [00:25:12][9.9]

Bryce: [00:25:12] And you're betting that by the end of 2008 and one of them will. [00:25:15][2.8]

Alec: [00:25:15] I'm saying that they'll have the technology ready to go. It will be commercialised into a car and the government will have regulated it so that I could be driving next to it. Wow. Yeah, I'm going to take that. I got a big one. Yeah, it's nice, I think. [00:25:33][17.2]

Bryce: [00:25:34] And the reasons I'll take that bet is because I think that there's too many elements there to happen in one year. [00:25:41][7.0]

Alec: [00:25:41] Yeah. So most of all I know we're doing we got involved. Well so the reason that I've said that is because most people predict twenty nineteen or twenty twenty, they expect self-driving cars on the road. And I think, I think it's going to be like Google. I think if there are forty two companies all testing self-driving technology just in California, I think what we're going to see is similar to what we did with the tail wagging the dog and the regulator to lead the regulator. So everybody's business model was to go to a new area and just drop that technology in that area, start recruiting drivers and tell the government. What if you are late competing with taxes, change regulation? [00:26:27][46.0]

Bryce: [00:26:28] I was discussing with them recently and I'd be interested to hear your was the how how do you programme a car at the end of the day to decide between one person killing the driver? Like, do you think that taking a self-driving car. [00:26:44][15.8]

Alec: [00:26:44] Yeah, I mean, that is at the end of the day, self-driving cars is safer than a human driver. [00:26:50][5.0]

Bryce: [00:26:51] And I, I would be interested if you can double down on that. [00:26:55][4.4]

Alec: [00:26:56] I'll give you one that I think will do. [00:26:58][2.2]

Bryce: [00:26:58] It is the one that you want Ford [00:27:00][1.9]

Alec: [00:27:03] moving on to a real thing for traditional American [00:27:07][4.3]

Bryce: [00:27:07] power. A while ago, you were talking about Ford and their ability to make [00:27:12][4.2]

Alec: [00:27:13] something that was forged by this CEO in twenty seventeen and replaced in box office. That's right. All right. Let's explore one which is owned by Google, I would say. I said now, this is the name that I know of. Well, if you have heard of it, you're watching this case closely. And it's a Melbourne Start-Up called Zook's Don't Laugh because actually actually, seriously, with and I got about two billion dollars in funding to build this self-driving car company. And they were like, ultra secret, like, oh, my God, what's going on in that company? Sort of Silicon Valley start up and now they're starting to get journalists into their cars and driving them around self-driving. And, you know, no one is saying 20 and I think the company is saying 24. But how good would it be if a Melwood founder and a company. Great. Yeah. Yeah. And then what country doesn't have a tech industry and [00:28:17][64.7]

Bryce: [00:28:18] they just have the technology? [00:28:19][0.6]

Alec: [00:28:20] I believe they're building their own cause as well. Geelong. No, no, no. So they're based in Silicon Valley or so Silicon Valley. So if you want a marketing manager. [00:28:32][11.7]

Bryce: [00:30:27] Alec now, potentially owes two beers to myself. This prediction. I'm going to go for a very, very bold prediction. This one that Trump will be meat by end of year. [00:30:40][13.6]

Alec: [00:30:43] Yes, I'll tied up. So why do people hate? [00:30:47][4.1]

Bryce: [00:30:48] I just think there's only so long that he can hold it by what's going on with this murder investigation. Yeah, and I think the Mueller investigation hopefully will bring to light a whole bunch of rogue things that went on. And I think that should be enough for both parties to agree, [00:31:08][20.2]

Alec: [00:31:10] but switch parties, as in the Democrats and Republicans. [00:31:12][2.2]

Bryce: [00:31:13] Yeah, yeah, yeah. That he needs to get out of here. Interesting. And I think that he's been in the presidency for what is a quite a short amount of time and has caused every day is just a mock up of mistakes for his advisers and all sort of chads. And I can I just can't imagine it's being sustained for another three years. [00:31:35][22.4]

Alec: [00:31:35] OK, well, I'll definitely take that because I think at the end of the day, impeachment is a political process. So the way it works is that the it's the House spokesman page. So you need a 51 percent majority and then the Senate needs to convict with a two thirds supermajority. And right now, right now, the Republicans are 51 and the Democrats are forty nine. I'm pretty sure that's wrong. But anyway, it's one or two Republicans more than Democrats in the Senate. I don't see 15 Republicans going to that. But I think as long as Donald Trump will sign that only 15 to 10 Republicans. So sixty six. Sixty seven, sixty seven, I guess, to be actually two thirds, you need a supermajority. So I, I think because it's a political process, I think what you say is in 2013, this year, the Democrats will push really hard to win in the midterm elections in the Senate and House of Reps. But even if they do really well, they'll probably have enough votes to vote for impeachment in the House, but they won't have enough to convict in the Senate. So I think he's going to last until 2020 and then only Trump Democrat in 2010, you know. Yeah, that was because of the globe. And I just think there are the [00:33:04][89.0]

Bryce: [00:33:05] things we'll know. It started from the convenience store, made more money based [00:33:10][5.8]

Alec: [00:33:11] out of that over 20, 20. [00:33:12][1.3]

Bryce: [00:33:12] Yeah, okay. Yeah. And then she came out with obviously a speech about what's going on in Hollywood at the moment. Yeah, okay. Well, that was a very short one, so I might just quickly followed. This is great because [00:33:25][13.3]

Bryce: [00:33:26] I think Bitcoin will fall below, will fall out of the top three, those kinds of market cap. Wow. That's that's a big deal. Yeah. Now, I'm not saying that that's going to be a crypto crash. [00:33:43][16.8]

Alec: [00:33:44] That's a that's an interesting one to say that other coins will just get bigger. [00:33:48][4.0]

Bryce: [00:33:49] Yes. Yeah. I'm saying that other coins will get bigger based on one more accessible Internet price, too. If I think what's going to happen in terms of the overall economy and stock market, I think people will put more money into cryptocurrency and I don't think they'll be putting it into Bitcoin. I think the future's long term. We'll stop having quite a significant impact. It's so clear what impact it's had on Bitcoin at the moment. And the volatility has just dropped out of Bitcoin completely. In fact, I reckon that's on a slight downward trend at the moment. So I think mainly because of entry price, you know, it's still a store of value for a lot of people. And it's the coin thought from a fundamental point of view, it's not the best cryptocurrency out there at all from what it claims to be. There's a lot of bitcoins that now do the same thing as Bitcoin. And I think that whilst it's had a great year, definitely plus it's going to drop out of the top three. How do you respond? [00:34:59][70.7]

Alec: [00:35:01] I am going to take that bet, OK? And only because to buy a different cryptocurrency, aside from herion, you need to buy it in Bitcoin. So I'm going to say that that's volume. Just access the alternative coins will keep the price high enough. And I know that you sell point outside alternative coin then. [00:35:27][26.3]

Bryce: [00:35:28] But that's an interesting point. I was just going to say that as an argument to that, but I don't necessarily think that you're selling Bitcoin. You're just transferring. [00:35:38][10.3]

Alec: [00:35:41] You can't know [00:35:41][0.4]

Bryce: [00:35:42] right now, correct? Right. Yeah. Yeah. [00:35:44][2.3]

Bryce: [00:35:45] So I assume you're saying the demand for other coins will sustain Bitcoin just from supply demand quantity. [00:35:51][6.7]

Alec: [00:35:52] Correct. Because then when you sell that and say I don't earn enough money, so I'm actually asking. Yes. So when you sell and you get paid in bitcoin. Yeah. So I think as long as. Bitcoin is a denominated currency of the crypto in the same way that the US dollar. [00:36:10][18.3]

Bryce: [00:36:10] So is Ethereum, [00:36:11][0.5]

Alec: [00:36:12] but how many in terms of what you can buy with the family you can buy with Bitcoin? It would be [00:36:19][6.3]

Bryce: [00:36:19] well, in my experience, it's definitely wise. What about overall? What do you make? Well, this is what I mean from the exchanges that I use. Yeah, yeah, you're right. [00:36:31][11.9]

Alec: [00:36:31] It's like 50, 100. Oh, yeah. You have to go into bitcoin. Yeah, yeah. OK, so even if Ethereum gets higher than Bitcoin, that's you still in military. So I'm going to say because in the same way that the US dollar became the global denomination for oil, I'm going to say as long as Bitcoin remains the global denomination for crypto in general, there'll be enough demand for it to keep it in the top four. [00:36:59][27.6]

Bryce: [00:37:00] Interesting. Yeah, done [00:37:01][1.5]

Alec: [00:37:02] that. Do you have any more modern and more [00:37:05][3.7]

Bryce: [00:37:06] interesting knowledge on. [00:37:07][0.9]

Alec: [00:37:07] Oh, here we go. So give us the rundown. So we've put one, [00:37:11][3.7]

Bryce: [00:37:11] two, three, four, five, six, seven bets on the table. [00:37:14][3.0]

Alec: [00:37:15] Do you know that? [00:37:16][0.8]

Bryce: [00:37:17] So the first bet was yours, which was [00:37:21][4.4]

Alec: [00:37:23] the ASX beats the ASX Bates' Wall Street. And Bryce took that. [00:37:27][4.8]

Bryce: [00:37:28] took the Wall Street side. Yeah. Then and let's be clear. So I'm saying let's just say the ASX 200. Yeah. Maybe the S&P 500. [00:37:37][9.2]

Alec: [00:37:38] OK, yeah. OK, 200 versus 400. OK, percentage since the sencion so not points. Yeah. OK, done. Then I went in hardball and said we're going to see a correction of over 20 percent on the US stock. [00:37:54][16.1]

Alec: [00:37:54] Twenty one. Yeah. Yeah. [00:37:57][2.3]

Bryce: [00:37:58] Which you took. I took it. OK that you're confident about that [00:38:02][3.9]

Alec: [00:38:03] going from nineteen point five percent. [00:38:04][1.3]

Bryce: [00:38:07] So you took that then you came in with Amazon. [00:38:09][2.3]

Bryce: [00:38:10] Yeah. Amazon will be off the no [00:38:12][1.7]

Bryce: [00:38:12] and I agree. [00:38:13][0.4]

Alec: [00:38:13] Yeah. So you didn't [00:38:14][0.6]

Bryce: [00:38:14] say we didn't take that at that then. I can remember when Woolworths and Coles. Yeah. Sorry, Woolworths and W Yeah. I didn't type and I said Woolworths will outperform Wesfarmers on a percentage basis. And you said no, no. Based on bias. [00:38:29][15.1]

Alec: [00:38:31] Based on the uncertainty. [00:38:31][0.5]

Bryce: [00:38:33] Yes. So you didn't take that bet. Correct. Then you've come in and said the self-driving cars will be not only technology take you've said it on the roads and regulated by government. Well I got. [00:38:50][17.4]

Alec: [00:38:50] Yeah, yeah, yeah. [00:38:52][1.7]

Bryce: [00:38:53] And do we put a limit on the government not come in Venezuela. [00:38:57][3.7]

Alec: [00:39:00] I'm going to bribe a government. [00:39:01][1.0]

Bryce: [00:39:04] OK, then I've come in with gold hitting fourteen hundred and push it to fifteen and you choke that. Yeah. Yeah. And then I've finished with Trump being impeached. [00:39:16][12.2]

Bryce: [00:39:17] Yeah I like that. [00:39:19][1.8]

Alec: [00:39:19] I like that. So, so, so that leaves Bryce my stuff. I mean Ren is 3D movies. [00:39:26][7.0]

Alec: [00:39:27] Flybe is on the top [00:39:27][0.7]

Bryce: [00:39:28] and yeah I like I too but that's part of I'm the [00:39:31][3.3]

Bryce: [00:39:31] type of case [00:39:32][0.7]

Bryce: [00:39:32] if [00:39:32][0.0]

Alec: [00:39:34] there's a situation where I can find. Yes, yeah. [00:39:36][2.2]

Bryce: [00:39:36] Yeah. And I like also I mean and also a you if [00:39:43][7.3]

Alec: [00:39:43] I could time off any of this. Now they're marketing the account right. Bryce to let up on the midnight on the 16th of September and telling I he was going to have such a good I. [00:39:55][11.5]

Bryce: [00:39:57] OK, so that brings us to 2013 stock picks and we did finish the last episode with our portfolio of 2017 and we're up 20 odd percent. Yeah, I'm not sure what we are going to have a look. OK, good. So as we said last just before Christmas, we're going to get this back up on mine and that is still happening. It's in the process of getting done at the moment. [00:40:23][26.5]

Alec: [00:40:24] So what about Ren twenty eight point five? Because I think that twenty eight point five percent actually born. [00:40:33][9.2]

Bryce: [00:40:35] So 5%, that's good. But that means nothing going into the next two years. So let's go to what do you do you have anything on your radar? If you do, let's hold for the next episode. [00:40:49][13.4]

Alec: [00:40:51] All right. On one side and the on another. [00:40:53][1.7]

Bryce: [00:40:53] Put another bit on the table and let's go one stop. The winner is highest percentage growth. Twenty eighteen December. [00:41:03][9.8]

Bryce: [00:41:04] I like it, I liked it it. [00:41:06][1.5]

Bryce: [00:41:07] But before we start, [00:41:08][0.8]

Bryce: [00:41:08] we say it starts from today, from first night from today, I don't know what the price will [00:41:15][6.3]

Alec: [00:41:15] So recording date is the 12th of January and it's after market close. So we are going to be going as of close, close to ten. OK, taken away. [00:41:28][12.8]

Alec: [00:41:29] OK, so when I was thinking about this, I decided that I have no clue what stock is going to be the best. This a great some of the stocks that were you know, people can look at macro trends and then try and pick a stock down on that. But I decided to go another time. I decided to say what stocks had a shot in twenty seventeen. I want to get some that mean reversion happening. Yeah. And then what stocks have potential in of my two criteria. Less so about like, you know, I's coming trend or you know, quantum computing is going to disrupt the world. So the one that I've selected, the company that most people have heard of, a lot of people probably will use, but no one would have thought to invest in. Is iSelect you now? That's very [00:42:26][57.6]

Alec: [00:42:27] yes. I floated a couple of years ago. [00:42:28][1.5]

Alec: [00:42:29] Yeah. Yeah. I didn't even realise on the share market. [00:42:31][2.1]

Alec: [00:42:32] OK, so so have you outlined why they had a shocker. [00:42:35][2.8]

Alec: [00:42:37] Yes. So they have entered a couple of new verticals shall we say. So iSelect was health care insurance comparison website that was going well. They entered some other ones, energy and telcos. So you find Bill, an Internet provider that had some issues. Then they decided to expand into sort of smart home products. And so in Australia, an exclusive distributor of the Google owned Nest company. Yeah. And then, like, they just didn't know how to be felt outside of expectations. And they fell twenty one percent from in the calendar year of twenty seventeen. So they're currently trading at Dollars. Thirty nine. The price equity is nineteen. So it's still not super cheap, but they have had consistent revenue growth in the last few years and with that consistent revenue growth, they have 18 million dollars in cash on the balance sheet and no debt. Wow. That's a good company. Yeah. So looking at what, what's in store for twenty eighteen, I think there's an opportunity to make reversion. I think investors punished them for not meeting expectations. [00:43:55][78.8]

Bryce: [00:43:57] Quick update on what many of those [00:43:59][2.0]

Alec: [00:43:59] minor version is. So you things don't occur in a linear fashion. Things aren't moving in any fashion. Instead they move in cycles. And so right now you would say that iSelect is below the trend line is a lot of it's below trend that will revert to the mean. So back to where that trend line is average. Yeah, exactly that. So you see this. Most stocks have a cyclical nature. Yeah. Commodities obviously have a cyclical nature. Most assets, most things in life have a cyclical nature. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So I think there will be a bit of that. I think investors will realise that punish the company a little bit too much for what was not not results along with expectations but not terrible results. The health care business still ticking along that energy and telco business, I think will do quite well, especially the key part of the business. With energy prices on the rise, some of what Malcolm Turnbull and the government has done in terms of energy comparison or not, I think there will be some flow on effect for us. But then I think there's some good opportunities to expand. So as I said, that exclusive distributor of nets, which is the good line, it's like smart thermostats and smart phone smart security systems and stuff like that. But I think there's a real opportunity to bring some more of that technology to Australia, ideally become an exclusive provider of it into some of the other things that offer. But to do something that no other Australian retailer is doing a lot on. And it's not something I'm not obviously it's not a core competency, but I think it's not a bad thing to try. And then finally, they have started expanding on sales. They recently bought a controlled by money, which is similar to isolate, but based in Malaysia and focussed on Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and so on. [00:45:59][120.5]

Bryce: [00:45:59] And so, [00:46:00][0.4]

Alec: [00:46:00] yeah, I think a comparison would excite the base to the south of the. And so there's two opportunities to expand there, obviously the opportunity to bring in more revenue from the South East Asian solar providers, insurance companies, tels energy companies that but also to bring these Australian companies overseas. And so to start selling Australian insurance products to the South East Asian market. And I think there will be a premium price to pay a premium placed on that by Australian companies. And I think that will be good for them. So that was a long time on people. [00:46:40][39.1]

Bryce: [00:46:41] Do you have any bold prediction on what the stock price may yet? [00:46:48][6.9]

Alec: [00:46:49] No bold prediction on the stock price, but I will say my bold prediction would be that they will make a big purchase that will get some headlines this year with that. [00:47:02][13.2]

Bryce: [00:47:03] So you reckon they're going to do a takeover? [00:47:04][0.9]

Alec: [00:47:05] Well, I'm not saying what they're going to do, but that balance sheet, if you look at the last period, so the last few years, it's been in the financial year 2014, that. Eighty five million on their balance. I expect them to do something with it at some stage. [00:47:22][16.7]

Bryce: [00:47:23] Well, that's actually got me thinking. I've had a massive flip on what I was going to say. I'm going to say my pick would be an ETF and this is something that it's on my radar for when the stock market starts to turn because it's an ETF that is created to make it negatively correlate the US stock market. So over the last two years, it's gone from roughly 15 Dollars down to just about five dollars because obviously the share market in the US has been going up. But as soon as the share market in the US starts to go down, it's a great way of hedging your portfolio and getting Babatz. I'm pretty sure we've spoken about it. If we have it and now we got so many of us was going to be my stock market this year, which I think is going to be my now main pharma are involved in generic drugs, especially in the US. And let me have a quick look. I'm pretty sure that's what they're in line. One of the things that has impacted them this year has been the price deflation in generic drugs. But their balance sheet is very good. Their price to earnings ratio is expensive, that earnings per share growth has consistently grown. However, this stock price last 12 months has taken a significant battering. Look, I'm not totally I'm not totally across it, to be honest. I think it's just one of those scary, as I said, price deflation in the Trump market, its impact. So, you know, things from that perspective are probably going well, maybe your attention. But look, I'm not claiming to be all over it. I'm going to say that my pick for 2013 is going to be OK. [00:49:08][104.5]

Alec: [00:49:08] Interesting. [00:49:08][0.0]

Bryce: [00:49:09] OK, so we've got an insurance company and we've got a pharmaceutical company. [00:49:12][3.3]

Alec: [00:49:13] And remember, we didn't do any research on this. So this is not a deal anyway. It's barely even listen worthy. [00:49:22][8.6]

Bryce: [00:49:24] But I'm also going to keep a close eye on the big because that's something I'm very interested to see what's going to happen. But, you know, [00:49:30][5.6]

Alec: [00:49:31] did you have any other other ones that you were close to [00:49:33][2.8]

Bryce: [00:49:34] to the end? My trend, my trend peak just like you? Well, yeah, my trend pick was going to be something in gold. And and that's based on. So what I'm thinking is going to happen this year and I'm looking at, you know, as gold goes up, obviously people think, who's making who's mining gold? Yeah. And it's the gold mine [00:49:53][19.1]

Alec: [00:49:55] we're going to get. [00:49:55][0.6]

Bryce: [00:49:55] So my original pick for gold was going to be a Sarasohn Sarkhan s s c. S I r a c and Mineral Holdings that would look like it's a gold mining company, Australian listed. So let's take that off the [00:50:14][18.9]

Alec: [00:50:15] list just to get it on the record. My pick for one of my other peaks was going to be raising it. Yeah. So they produced sleep apnoea mosques and marketplaces in that they now based in America, I'm pretty sure in Georgia, in America, that are an Australian company that dual listed in Australia and America. They had a good twenty seventeen, but they so they had a lot of money offshore and they couldn't repatriated to America because of this whole tax thing. Now the Trump tax plan was passed. They can repatriate that money. They can't say they need the money to finish building the facility and stuff. So I think this tax bill will be really good for them and didn't want to be. Priced into the share market share price bottom, I think they could be a good spot and another one that I looked at that had a rough twenty seventeen that probably got a little bit too much was fragrances. Well, not very. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But at the end of the day. On that price. On your [00:51:24][69.6]

Bryce: [00:51:25] back. Yeah. That's fixed. Well let's get it on the write off. Sure. [00:51:27][2.6]

Bryce: [00:51:28] Yeah. Cool. [00:51:29][0.9]

Bryce: [00:51:29] Well that's, that brings us to the end. And I guess it's as I said at the start of the episode, it's only a matter of months away now from the NFL season. And for those that the podcast welcome, it's great to have you 2019. Pretty keen to get on board. I look at myself Ren. That's a mixture of both AFL fans. I think in a lot of how we've been putting down some bets, you know, you've got to stock markets to put down to for the AFL season. So one or two bets, whatever, Ren, whatever it may be unemployed. But what's your what's your bet for the 2013 season? [00:52:04][34.7]

Alec: [00:52:05] My first bold prediction, Riechmann don't make the Maxcy, etc.. [00:52:12][7.7]

Bryce: [00:52:13] Those that aren't aware Richmond won the premiership 2017 lost. So they're going to go in as the defending premiers. [00:52:20][7.1]

Alec: [00:52:21] Baltimore, Richmond, way to top off winning a premiership and by letting down their fans. I'm not making the next year. [00:52:28][7.3]

Bryce: [00:52:29] So that either means Dusty here is one of the best players. It's going to get seriously injured or not. Might not be able to play the season or not. [00:52:36][7.1]

Alec: [00:52:37] Oh, sorry, Alex Arad's old Collingwood. But I still think they relied on a lucky year with a lot of passionate fans and then also of stuff. [00:52:52][14.6]

Bryce: [00:52:52] Yeah, that's very interesting. I will take that one. [00:52:57][4.6]

Bryce: [00:52:57] What about Best Mates is a Richmond fan. So I from that they're doing the same city. Watch out. Yeah. [00:53:04][6.6]

Bryce: [00:53:05] All right. Well, mine's not as old as yours, but I'm going to assume they're going to make the [00:53:09][4.3]

Bryce: [00:53:10] call this time. [00:53:10][0.6]

Bryce: [00:53:12] And I'm going to say that Zac Merritt finishes second in the Brownlow Medal. [00:53:16][4.3]

Alec: [00:53:17] Bryce is also quietly drinking beer out of an Essendon study, although everyone wasn't sure, which is a great way to finish. So I'm not making the bombers like [00:53:31][14.0]

Bryce: [00:53:31] in the top four. Nothing from Sydney, which is Ren is team. So obviously not confident [00:53:36][4.5]

Alec: [00:53:38] in Sydney at that time of night. The top four every year, everyone except my bold prediction, my less than bold prediction, Toby Green gets suspended again. I mean, tonight there are three times. So. [00:53:56][17.7]

Bryce: [00:53:57] Well, that brings us to a close episode tonight. It's been a very enjoyable one from my perspective, and I'm sure we all as well Ren to kick off twenty nineteen. Some very bold predictions and bets on the line. We've got some B's and even a case on the line. And look, we're really excited about what's going to come in. Twenty, eighteen. Hopefully it's something in terms of, from a market perspective, a bit more volatile than last year. So we have some more exciting things to talk about. [00:54:22][24.7]

Alec: [00:54:22] This one in that bill. [00:54:23][0.7]

Bryce: [00:54:25] We're all looking forward to some interesting things happening in the market, and I'm sure they will. So it's been great to have you in the room, Ren. For those that are on the way, we usually record online Ren lives down in Melbourne. I'm up in Sydney and I've been lucky. Well, I think a lot of Ren Afterpay in Sydney this weekend. We've got a big cricket match tomorrow. So, yeah, that's exciting. Apologies to the birds and planes in the background recording my back [00:54:49][24.8]

Alec: [00:54:50] God and Serenity. [00:54:51][1.3]

Bryce: [00:54:52] But look, stick with us this year. It's been a great year and we look forward to having a really exciting time to be with you guys. [00:54:58][6.4]

Bryce: [00:54:59] Yeah, thanks for listening, Equity Mates. And the people appearing in this programme may have positions in the companies mentioned. This is general advice for me. Please speak to a financial professionals, understand how they pertain to your individual situation. [00:54:59][0.0]


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