Bonus Episode: Equity Mates Community Bold Predictions

HOSTS Alec Renehan & Bryce Leske|9 February, 2021

Meet your hosts

  • Alec Renehan

    Alec developed an interest in investing after realising he was spending all that he was earning. Investing became his form of 'forced saving'. While his first investment, Slater and Gordon (SGH), was a resounding failure, he learnt a lot from that experience. He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can.
  • Bryce Leske

    Bryce has had an interest in the stock market since his parents encouraged him to save 50c a fortnight from the age of 5. Once he had saved $500 he bought his first stock - BKI - a Listed Investment Company (LIC), and since then hasn't stopped. He hopes that Equity Mates can help make investing understandable and accessible. He loves the Essendon Football Club, and lives in Sydney.

For this episode we’ve asked you to tell us what your bold predictions for the year to come will be, and didn’t you deliver! We asked you some questions in the Facebook community, and some of you used our new contact form and left us some very entertaining voice messages! If you want to get involved in future shows – make sure you visit this page: https://equitymates.com/contact/

And if you love everything Equity Mates and want to support our work, this is where you want to go: https://equitymates.com/support/

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Bryce Leske: [00:00:55] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, how is that Ren? [00:00:59][4.0]

Alec Renehan: [00:01:00] wasn't bad. [00:01:01][0.8]

Bryce Leske: [00:01:01] good good. Our aim is to help you on your investing journey, breaking down the barriers from beginning to dividend. Whether you're an absolute beginner or Warren Buffett, we guarantee you that Equity Mates. We'll have something for you. My name is Bryce and as always, I'm joined by my Equity Mates Ren. How are you going? [00:01:16][15.1]

Alec Renehan: [00:01:17] I'm very good, Bryce. I am looking forward to this episode. Part of me thinks we've done bold predictions to death. We've had an episode on the podcast. We've had Andrew Brown on the podcast give his bold predictions. We did an episode on our TV show on is Shout Out. If you haven't gone to Osbey and checked it out, you should. So we've done a lot of bold predictions. [00:01:40][23.5]

Bryce Leske: [00:01:41] Well, this is going to close it out because the one, I guess, group that we haven't heard bold predictions from, we've had the experts, we've had ourselves. And now it's time to hear from the Equity Mates community. Yeah. Yeah. Which I think is the most enjoyable part. So this episode is a bonus Bold Predictions episode where we will be hearing some big, bold predictions for 2021 straight from the Equity Mates community. Before we do, though, we put out a few questions on Facebook to prep for this episode to get a bit of a vibe, a temperature of the room on how things might pan out now. And Tony, on you, [00:02:17][35.7]

Alec Renehan: [00:02:18] you put these questions out as we go, I might add some commentary on how bold I think some of those questions were. [00:02:24][6.6]

Bryce Leske: [00:02:25] They're not designed to be bold, OK? And a lot of them are directly from Andrew Brown. So watch what you say, i.e. the first three. [00:02:34][9.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:02:35] Yeah. Yeah. You know, the first one. I just didn't think it was very bold. But let's not keep people in suspense. Well, if you [00:02:40][4.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:02:40] actually read our text messages between the producer, you'd understand why they're so bold. Prediction No. One, will politics play a big part in the markets in twenty twenty one? Ninety one per cent of our community thought so. [00:02:52][12.5]

Alec Renehan: [00:02:53] Yeah. We should preface this with if you're wondering how people voted on this, it was in the Equity Mates Facebook discussion group. And if you're not a member, you should be because the conversation in there has started very strong in twenty, twenty one. But yeah, politics will play a big part in markets. 91 percent said yes. I couldn't agree more. [00:03:15][21.8]

Bryce Leske: [00:03:15] Sure, yeah. 2021. Do you think you'll get better returns from the Australian market or the US? 68 per cent of respondents have said the US. [00:03:26][10.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:03:26] OK, what would you say? Did you vote? [00:03:28][1.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:03:29] I haven't actually voted on this, I would say. Well, actually, yeah, I'd say the US. [00:03:34][5.7]

Alec Renehan: [00:03:35] Yeah, yeah, I think so. I mean, the only counter argument is potentially, you know, you've seen what China has done getting out of covid so strongly and so quickly compared to the rest of the world. US are notable for not managing covid. Well, potentially, if Australia can get vaccinated, get opened and and get the economy going again, potentially it has a stronger year on the back of a better handling of it. [00:04:03][27.4]

Bryce Leske: [00:04:03] At the time of recording, I think we are still just shy of where we actually were in March. Twenty twenty on the market. So, yeah, pretty phenomenal here in Australia. That is number four. And will Tech be the star performing sector again in Australia? And seventy percent of respondents have said yes. I disagree, as I said in my bold predictions, but what are your thoughts? [00:04:28][25.1]

Alec Renehan: [00:04:29] I, I would have to have to agree, I think. With who? Not with, you know, with the podcast is so boring. If we all. What did you think the best performer would be from memory? [00:04:44][15.5]

Bryce Leske: [00:04:45] I thought it was going to be the turnaround game. The industrial. [00:04:47][2.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:04:48] Oh yeah. Yeah. You've been reading too many analyst reports that say now is the time to cycle out of growth and into the turnaround stuff. [00:04:56][8.1]

Bryce Leske: [00:04:57] Anyway, I'm pretty sure I can't remember it was either that or it was the health care. But anyway, [00:05:02][5.4]

Alec Renehan: [00:05:03] it was your bold prediction and you made it last week. [00:05:05][1.9]

Bryce Leske: [00:05:06] Yeah, we recorded it three weeks ago and then ran finally closing out. This was a fun one. [00:05:11][5.2]

Alec Renehan: [00:05:11] This this one I like [00:05:13][1.6]

Bryce Leske: [00:05:13] bold prediction. Who will win this year's Stock of the Year? Will it be Ren? Will Ren finally get a win on the board. Unfortunately hasn't won one yet. [00:05:22][8.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:05:22] Oh no, I'm 0 from 3 at this point. Picking a company for Stock of the Year is known in the industry as the kiss of death. [00:05:31][9.3]

Bryce Leske: [00:05:34] Seventy three percent of the community think that this is your year. Ren, come on. So the pressure's on you. I'm not off to a well. Firstly, my stock's not even listed at the moment and some news has come through that they are unlikely to be IPO going in the usual way. They're going to be doing a bit of a direct listing that is ROBLOX. So we'll keep you up to date with the developments there. But right now, let's move to bold predictions from the community. This is the fun part. We have four or five voice recordings of people who have left a message on our website at equitymates.com/contact and then we've got some written ones as well. So let's crack into it. Yeah. [00:06:12][38.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:06:13] And have a listen to this first one. This it's a good, good, bold predictions. There's a few there, but also just a textbook example of leaf delivery, of voice recording. And throughout the year, if you ever want to leave us a message, you know, if you've got a question that you want us to answer on the show, if you've got a comment, if you want to give us some feedback on the amount of hair Jelly's using or REM's fashion, you can head to the and leave a comment. So let's kick it off. First voice recording from Lauchlan. Uh, here it is. [00:06:52][38.9]

Lauchlan: [00:06:54] Hello Equity mates my name's Lucky very excited to hear everyone predictions this episode, Minah Zemko will be added to the ASX fifty C limited to Code S E will be the best performing American LogCAP stock that there will be a 10 percent correction across the Australian and the American market and the mighty catus will win the premiership. Thanks, mate. I hope you have a great day. [00:07:15][21.4]

Bryce Leske: [00:07:16] Nice one. Lauchlan, thank you for the bold prediction. Perfectly delivered. Much appreciation. Some interesting ones there. Zipp is in the top 50. [00:07:25][9.2]

Alec Renehan: [00:07:26] Yeah, that is it. Is it even in the top three hundred at the moment. [00:07:28][2.3]

Bryce Leske: [00:07:29] Good question. I am not across the top two hundred stocks but [00:07:33][4.0]

Alec Renehan: [00:07:33] so it's got like a four and a half billion dollar market cap. Yeah. So it is in the top two hundred. Yeah. [00:07:39][6.0]

Bryce Leske: [00:07:39] Um OK so we'll watch that closely and check in with as we go. See it's a company over in the United States to be the star performer of the year and then also cuts [00:07:52][12.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:07:52] to the issue in the Premier. That's lucky. Don't take your bold prediction too much, but I don't know how bold that is. Although they are notorious chokers in the finals, they're a fully stacked team. That same sort of just got more stacked with Jeremy Cameron and the like. [00:08:07][14.2]

Bryce Leske: [00:08:08] They go, yeah, and also a ten percent correction here and in the States. I don't know if that means finishing the year down ten percent or just a correction and then back up in recovery. But, you know, I could say something like that happening this year. [00:08:20][11.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:08:20] Yeah, I think it would just be during the year. Yeah. [00:08:22][1.8]

Bryce Leske: [00:08:22] Yeah. All right. So whoever got next run. [00:08:25][2.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:08:25] Next one. Adam um, here we go. [00:08:28][2.5]

Speaker 4: [00:08:28] Hey, guys. Adam from Melbourne here. My bold prediction of the twenty twenty one is Nick Sciences or in excess on the ASX. They've got a solid product roadmap coming into twenty, twenty one and good forecasts of revenue. Their product is pretty incredible and unique as well. It allows bacteria to be broken down on biofilm, which will produce a lot of infections that come from bacteria living on biofilm during surgery. I highly recommend everyone check it out. They're an Australian company and they've got big, big customers in America and in Europe. Thanks. [00:08:57][29.1]

Bryce Leske: [00:08:58] Nice one. Thank you. And that was good from Adam Microcap. I think only looking at it has a market cap of about fifty million, but [00:09:06][7.8]

Alec Renehan: [00:09:07] we good to get him on the show. I feel like Adam, that's a stock that you got to come and pitch on one of our portfolio episodes. Absolutely. Sounds interesting. Um, I love to say an Australian success story. So interested to hear more about it. [00:09:20][13.9]

Bryce Leske: [00:09:21] All right. We've got. [00:09:22][0.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:09:22] Now, yes, [00:09:23][0.6]

Bryce Leske: [00:09:24] Tesla will finish the year with a higher market cap, the name is on [00:09:27][2.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:09:27] bold prediction, not that that one is bold. What Tesla around the 800 billion mark and Amazon, one point seven dollars trillion last time I checked. Yeah. So it's either got a more than Tesla, either going to more than double or Amazon's got to, you know, have a serious slide. [00:09:49][22.0]

Bryce Leske: [00:09:51] The very a lot of conviction there from Michalak said it is said its right, it is called get on with it. [00:09:58][7.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:09:59] Yeah. Yeah. I mean Bezos left so maybe Amazon will stumble but I just don't see that happening. Thank you. I appreciate your bold prediction, Mitch. We do like them being bold. So keep those. Keep those coming. Yes. All right. Next one we have from Nick. [00:10:17][18.2]

Speaker 5: [00:10:17] Yeah, good. Equity Mates Nick here from Melbourne. My bold prediction for 2021 is that reddens blanket will double in value. [00:10:26][8.8]

Bryce Leske: [00:10:28] Cheers, boys. Love this one, Nick. [00:10:30][2.0]

Alec Renehan: [00:10:30] Yeah, I made it. Already has. [00:10:32][1.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:10:33] Well, it's just going up the price every day. If anyone would like to buy Ren's blanket, let us know he is auctioning it off. [00:10:40][7.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:10:41] What's this off that you talking about? This is a company that's my blanket and I will be keeping the profits now for anyone interested in buying it. It's currently kept in a glass case in my room at home. No dust, no no environmental degradation or damage. Perfect condition. It's like one of those figurines that people keep in the box. Yes. And then it's got to break glass in case of emergency hammer next to it. [00:11:11][29.9]

Bryce Leske: [00:11:11] Yes. And that emergency is not being able to record [00:11:13][2.0]

Alec Renehan: [00:11:13] in the studio. Yes. The problem with investing in blankets is it's really hard to get liquidity. They're not they're not traded on any exchange. True. So that's always been my challenge. But, Nick, I like your bold prediction. [00:11:27][13.3]

Bryce Leske: [00:11:27] Nice. And here's another one from Luke. [00:11:29][1.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:11:29] Yeah. That I think also has a crack at me. So twenty, twenty one. We need to see more people having a crack at a price. But Luke, here's your bold prediction. [00:11:38][8.7]

Speaker 4: [00:11:38] Hi, my name's Luke and my bold prediction is for twenty twenty one that Wren will grow some hair. [00:11:45][6.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:11:46] Nice. If we were to be betting on this for a bit I would definitely take that one, although again maybe give it a shot, see what happens. [00:11:54][8.5]

Alec Renehan: [00:11:55] But well he didn't specify what type of hair so maybe I just need to grow. Might be true. Yeah. Oh technicalities. Maybe if Ashley and Martin offered me like the Warney deal, like a few mil, I'll I'll be their spokesperson. [00:12:10][15.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:12:12] So that is bringing us to the end of the bold predictions from a recording point of view. A quick reminder for anyone who wants to submit a bold prediction or any other comment related to the show or stock that you want to pitch or an industry that you're researching, you can do so at Equity Mates dot com forward slash contact. And it is very easy to just record and send the voice message through to us. So please do so. But we also have a contact form where people can leave some written comments as well. And we've got a couple of bold predictions to rip through here. The first one is from Ben Forno, who thinks that a downturn is coming. He's looking at the construction sector for the infrastructure winners, but also that cyber security is going to bounce back strong at the back of the medical and research sectors in included art. [00:13:03][50.6]

Alec Renehan: [00:13:04] Next up, we've got Rene, who has said that after pay will drop in March. So March this year when everyone that bought the stock in the March lows cashes in on their profits. [00:13:16][12.1]

Bryce Leske: [00:13:17] So that's a bit of a tax play. [00:13:18][0.9]

Alec Renehan: [00:13:18] Yeah, yeah, yeah. So for people that are unfamiliar, after 12 months in Australia, you get a 50 percent capital gains discount. Yeah. So if you hold a capital asset for more than 12 months, you get a discount on the tax. So that's not a bad call. [00:13:33][14.8]

Bryce Leske: [00:13:33] Yeah, it's a well-thought-out bold prediction. And I'm going to be keen to see what happens in March after [00:13:38][5.2]

Alec Renehan: [00:13:39] the people that bought after pay in March and who like 10x their money more than 10x their money in less than a year. Chase. Yeah, killing it anyway. [00:13:47][7.7]

Bryce Leske: [00:13:47] So that brings us to the end of our Bold Predictions bonus episode. Hopefully, you've got something out of that. And it was good fun. But as we said throughout, please do make use of the hardcoded website that Ren has done. Equity Mates dot com forward, slash contact, leave a voice message or so. You can just type in your responses. There are a bunch of questions on there that we'll be using throughout the year to involve you guys on the show more. So please do use that sign up to our new email, which is a get started investing email, or continue on with our thoughts starters or we also. I have a crypto email that would be going out weekly as well, so to keep up to date with all of those, had to equitymates.com/signup and sign up to the ones that interest you. But again, that brings us to the end of the show. It does. As always, it's fun to chat. Yeah. Another reminder, though, we do have to get started investing podcasts and comedian vs economists. [00:14:44][56.7]

Alec Renehan: [00:14:46] We're everywhere these days. We've also got a TV show. Watch that. Listen to us. Listen to comedian vs economist, read our emails. Honestly, just don't consume any content. So we don't we haven't produced. [00:14:56][10.6]

Bryce Leske: [00:14:58] It's always fun to chat stocks. We're looking forward to continuing the conversation next week and with you guys in our Facebook community. But until then, we'll keep an eye on the stocks and chat next week. [00:15:09][11.3]

Alec Renehan: [00:15:09] Sounds good. [00:15:09][0.0]

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