Follow our Instagram to stay up to date with what's happening at Equity Mates

Bonus Ep: Will Our Bold Predictions For 2020 Finish Differently?

HOSTS Alec Renehan & Bryce Leske|12 August, 2020

2020 has been crazy and there is no doubt it’s going to finish differently to what we anticipated back in January. Given we’re half-way through, we thought we would check-in on our bold predictions, and answer the question ‘will it finish differently?’

Some of the bold predictions we review:

  • We will see a company with a $2 trillion market cap
  • AirBNB will be the biggest IPO in 2020
  • US Federal Reserve balance sheet will once again go over $4.5 trillion
  • Australia’s GDP growth will be less than 1.75%
  • India will be the star stock market performer
  • Residential property prices will experience +10% gains in both Sydney and Melbourne

We’re looking forward to seeing how these pan out over the remainder of the year – some very likely to happen, others likely to finish differently!

Remember to drink responsibly.


*******

If you want to let Alec or Bryce know what you think of an episode, contact them here

*****

Some of our favourite resources and offers to help you during your journey:

*****

Make sure you don’t miss anything Equity Mates related by signing up to our email list. And visit this page if you love everything Equity Mates and want to support our work.

*****

Equity Mates Investing Podcast is a product of Equity Mates Media. 

All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only. Equity Mates gives listeners access to information and educational content provided by a range of financial services professionals. It is not intended as a substitute for professional finance, legal or tax advice. 

The hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast are not financial professionals and are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Equity Mates Media does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given.

Before making any financial decisions you should read the Product Disclosure Statement and, if necessary, consult a licensed financial professional. 

Do not take financial advice from a podcast. 

For more information head to the disclaimer page on the Equity Mates website where you can find ASIC resources and find a registered financial professional near you. 

In the spirit of reconciliation, Equity Mates Media and the hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respects to their elders past and present and expend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people today. 

*****

Have you just started your investing journey? Head over to Get Started Investing – Equity Mates 12-part series with all the fundamentals you need to feel confident to start your investing journey.

Want more Equity Mates? Subscribe to our social media channels (@equitymates), Thought Starters * Get Started Investing mailing list and more, or check out our Youtube channel.

Equity Mates Investing Podcast is part of the Acast Creator Network.

Bryce: [00:01:28] Welcome to another episode of Equity Mates, a podcast where we help you learn to invest in 45 minutes or less. We break down the world of investing from beginning to dividend so that you can hopefully make some returns. My name is Bryce and as always, I'm joined by my equity buddy Ren. How's it going, bro? [00:01:42][14.4]

Alec: [00:01:42] I'm very good Bryce. I think in our four years of doing this podcast, this is the first episode where we've cracked a bottle of wine. [00:01:50][7.4]

Alec: [00:01:51] Well, true, [00:01:51][0.4]

Bryce: [00:01:53] but as far as you're aware, [00:01:54][1.4]

Alec: [00:01:54] anyway, you may be sneaking some on the side. [00:01:57][3.2]

Bryce: [00:01:58] Always got a sneaky one on you. [00:01:59][1.3]

Alec: [00:01:59] That explains a lot. That explains a lot. But we're here with a bit of a bonus episode today, something a little bit out of the usual. But 20/20 is being crazy. It has been absolutely unpredictable. It's going to finish differently than we all expected. And so we made a bunch of bold predictions at the start of the year. Yes, some of them are going to look a little bit foolish now, potentially. So we thought, you know what, we're both retail guys. We both know stock takes like the back of our hand. Yes. And so let's do a stock take about bold predictions. Let's look at the predictions we made in January and ask which one of those are going to finish differently for twenty twenty [00:02:39][40.1]

Bryce: [00:03:20] So let's review our bold predictions. I'm keen for this because there are a couple in here having a quick squeeze at the moment that we're absolutely on point, which is good for the Equity Mates Bryce won't finish differently, so it won't finish differently. But there are a number of others that certainly will. [00:03:36][16.0]

Alec: [00:03:36] So your bold prediction that a global pandemic would shut down the world economy was a great, [00:03:41][4.8]

Alec: [00:03:42] pretty low point. And unfortunately, I didn't write that one down or record it. But so the [00:03:48][6.0]

Bryce: [00:03:48] way this is going to work Ren, I think I'll read one of your bold predictions. You'll tell me whether or not you think it will finish differently or not. And we'll just go toe to toe and see who comes out on top. Sounds good. Let's do it right. So your first bold prediction way back in January was that we will see a company with a two trillion dollar market cap. Will this finish differently? [00:04:10][22.6]

Alec: [00:04:11] I am honestly loving this prediction. It's called We are recording towards the end of July and three companies are at one point six trillion dollars. Wow. Microsoft, Amazon and Apple. That's USD. And then Alphabet is lagging a little bit. It's still over a trillion dollars. Probably can't hit the two trillion dollar mark, but still Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. Maybe I'll get three companies or the two trillion dollar market cap. [00:04:40][28.4]

Bryce: [00:04:40] Well, Ren, if you had slightly adjusted that to a two trillion dollar market cap in Australian dollars. Amazon is actually worth two point two four trillion in Aussie dollars, which is, you know, staggering. [00:04:53][12.8]

Alec: [00:04:53] But look at the date of recording. Apple is one point sixty eight trillion JS, and it's just an unbelievable number. [00:05:00][7.1]

Bryce: [00:05:01] I mean, so you're backing this in you don't really think that this will finish differently in the sense that it's unlikely. So we'll keep that as is. [00:05:10][8.7]

Alec: [00:05:10] All right. So your first bold prediction was Australia's GDP growth will be less than one point seventy five percent. Will this prediction finish differently? [00:05:21][10.6]

Bryce: [00:05:21] Look, to be honest, I'm going to back this one in as well. Given what's going on at the moment. We are facing some significant headwinds. And this was made before Covid really came to play. I am backing this in Australia's GDP growth will be less than one point seventy five percent. I would go so far as to say that it might even be less than one point five. [00:05:41][19.8]

Alec: [00:05:43] So that's nothing for a vote, maybe one point thirty five as we sit in the midst of [00:05:50][7.3]

Alec: [00:05:50] a global pandemic. Melbourne has been locked down. I expect Sydney is about to follow. And you're making some quick prediction over that. [00:06:00][10.0]

Alec: [00:06:01] Let's put it this way. [00:06:02][0.6]

Bryce: [00:06:02] It'll finish so differently that it'll be less than one percent. [00:06:04][2.6]

Alec: [00:06:06] How's that? [00:06:06][0.4]

Bryce: [00:06:08] All right, Ren, your next one was Airbnb will be the biggest IPO in 2020 and we were measuring that as the biggest gain from IPO price for companies over one billion dollars in market cap. [00:06:22][14.4]

Alec: [00:06:23] So I think I have to say this one will finish differently because there's now a growing chance that Airbnb doesn't even IPO in 2020 in saying that if it was going to IPO, I would still love it and still probably invest in it because I think it's a great company. But Covid has really thrown a spanner in those works. This was my almost sure thing. I would bet the house on it. [00:06:47][24.4]

Bryce: [00:06:48] Is it because of Covid that they're holding back? [00:06:50][1.7]

Alec: [00:06:50] Yeah, yeah. I mean, the IPO market has completely been disrupted like lemonade IPO recently, but the big IPOs are just not really happening at the moment. And given the state of the US at the moment, it wouldn't be a great time to list four companies. So I'm going to say this one will finish differently, sadly, [00:07:10][20.1]

Bryce: [00:07:11] fickle, sadly, but something to watch in 2021. [00:07:13][2.1]

Alec: [00:07:14] Okay, so you are very bullish on India, it seems, because you made the prediction that India will be the star stock market performer outperforming major markets. And specifically, you said the US market, the Australian market, the Japanese market, Brazil, China and all of Europe. [00:07:34][19.9]

Alec: [00:07:35] So. [00:07:35][0.0]

Bryce: [00:07:37] Well, I really back to India in Iraq in January, [00:07:40][2.7]

Alec: [00:07:41] we finished differently. [00:07:42][0.7]

Bryce: [00:07:43] This is a tough one. I certainly thought back in Jan that, you know, this was one of my shoe ins. [00:07:48][5.6]

Alec: [00:07:49] I just [00:07:49][0.6]

Alec: [00:07:51] however, looking [00:07:52][0.8]

Bryce: [00:07:52] at the Sensex, which is the major index over in India, it is down eight point five per cent for the year. And given that, if we look at the S&P 500, for example, on a yearly basis, it is currently just below its peak and the S&P 500 is just below where it started off this year. Well, it's pretty much flat down zero point zero two percent. So India is certainly getting outplayed and very likely, given what's going on with Covid at the moment, economic shot down, I think this is going to finish differently. [00:08:24][32.0]

Alec: [00:08:25] Yeah, I mean, I thought it was going to finish differently from the time you made the prediction. [00:08:28][3.6]

Alec: [00:08:29] But Michael, so Ren [00:08:32][3.6]

Bryce: [00:08:33] third one for you, private equity will stumble. [00:08:36][2.4]

Alec: [00:08:36] Yeah, I love my prediction. [00:08:38][2.2]

Alec: [00:08:41] It gives me a lot of look, [00:08:43][2.2]

Alec: [00:08:43] I think given private equities debt burden, like their business model is based on leveraged buyouts, a lot of debt, they're going to benefit from extremely low interest rates. They're going to benefit from government stimulus and federal government support. But at the same time, if the US fully shuts down its economy again or people can't go back to work, the ability to service a lot of that debt is going to become harder and harder. I'm going to say this prediction won't finish differently. I think we're going to see some big private equity names where major write downs on some of the businesses that I hold for the remainder of twenty twenty. [00:09:20][36.8]

Bryce: [00:09:20] Yeah, I would tend to agree with that. So far you're doing pretty well. [00:09:25][4.1]

Alec: [00:09:25] The next one for you is that Australian residential property prices will experience more than 10 percent gangs in both Sydney and Melbourne. Mm hmm. Will this finish differently? [00:09:39][14.2]

Bryce: [00:09:40] I think this one will finish differently. Obviously, Covid is having an impact, I don't think, such as a significant impact as this is recorded at the time of recording, then people may have thought interest rates are still really low. So those who can afford to get into property, it's incredibly cheap to do so. Housing prices are still very expensive in the major cities. However, I think we're probably going to see a bit of a flat line for the next sort of six to 12 months. I'm no expert, but I can't say sort of a 10 percent rise given what's going on at the moment. [00:10:15][35.0]

Alec: [00:10:15] Well, we recently interviewed Chris Joye from Coolabah Capital, who is a massive bond trader in Australia, and he gave us some thoughts on the Australian housing market in the context of Covid he expected, I think it was a five percent fall and then a 20 percent rise. No, I don't think he gave us a timeline for that. [00:10:35][19.9]

Bryce: [00:10:36] The way I took it was that that five per cent fall was going to be in this sort of shorter term. And I would play that is towards the end of the year. [00:10:42][5.9]

Alec: [00:10:43] Yes. So probably [00:10:44][1.2]

Alec: [00:10:44] lost. [00:10:44][0.0]

Bryce: [00:10:46] So, yes, Ren, this one is likely to finish differently. Taffet Ren your fourth one was the wax stocks averaged 88 percent growth in 2019. One, they will do it again. And two, Afterpay will be the worst performing of the five companies like. [00:11:05][18.6]

Alec: [00:11:05] I'm going to take the view that one out of two ain't bad here. I think Afterpay alone, if it continues, the run it's on will drag the wax up 88 percent. [00:11:15][10.2]

Bryce: [00:11:16] Well, it's up about 650 percent [00:11:18][2.0]

Alec: [00:11:19] from its March low. Yes, but I'm not going to give myself that. It has to be from the start of the year. Yeah, but that leads us very nicely onto the second part of the bold prediction, which will definitely finish differently. I predicted that Afterpay would be the worst performing of the five Waacs stocks. Why is tech Afterpay apon Altium and Zero the five Australian tech darlings? I definitely don't think Afterpay can be the worst of the five unless something goes incredibly wrong. I'm going to make an addendum and have a story as a bold prediction. How long do you reckon it takes until this index becomes the Swacked or Wax's and includes sessile and zippi. [00:12:03][44.3]

Bryce: [00:12:04] A great question. I don't think it will. I don't think it will. I think there's there's that, you know, you look at these companies and you look at the fang stocks as well. And those Binalong highlighted stocks are benefiting from the ocean rising in the industry. But I don't think they will be the big player to be included in the Wax's [00:12:25][21.6]

Alec: [00:12:27] high fang can become fan mag, then WACs can become sweatsuit. [00:12:31][4.8]

Alec: [00:12:33] Yeah, sure. Whatever floats your boat. Well, I [00:12:36][2.5]

Bryce: [00:12:36] will take note of that addendum and we'll check in on that at the end of the year. [00:12:40][3.8]

Alec: [00:12:40] All right. So next one from you. Ethical investing inflows in Australia will be the biggest ever. [00:12:45][4.8]

Bryce: [00:12:46] Yeah, I absolutely backed this in. I don't think this will finish differently. I think if anything we're seeing from people that we're interviewing in the space at the moment, it's just becoming evident that more and more people are becoming interested in this space. It's becoming important for investors. And now funds are also more and more conscious of aligning themselves to this sort of offer for their investors. So I absolutely think this is a shoe in for me. [00:13:09][23.7]

Alec: [00:13:10] Not only will this not finish differently, this is like a cheap home brand bottle of wine that will finish exactly the same as predicted. [00:13:17][7.4]

Alec: [00:13:18] Sure. Right. [00:13:19][1.3]

Bryce: [00:13:19] Ren. So a few more to go. You said that the US Federal Reserve balance sheet will once again go over four point five trillion. Is this [00:13:30][11.0]

Alec: [00:13:30] guy Jania? [00:13:31][0.5]

Alec: [00:13:31] So I'm surprised this got in as bold at the start of the year. Well, actually, no, because we to be fair, they were winding down their balance sheet at the start of the year. The balance sheet, when we last looked, it was around seven trillion. The covid crisis in the US is far from over. So we probably don't even have to track this one anymore. You can just buy me the beer now. [00:13:52][20.8]

Alec: [00:13:53] Oh, OK. [00:13:54][1.4]

Alec: [00:13:55] Well, in fact, I was so right. We might have to upgrade it from a B.R. to a bottle of Jacob's great double balance. [00:14:00][5.7]

Bryce: [00:14:01] We've struck a deal with our mates at Jacob's Creek just for you guys Equity Mates you now have the opportunity to taste Jacob's Creek double barrel range for thirty percent off with free shipping offer ends 30th of September. To do so, just head to your search browser and search Jacob's Creek podcast. [00:14:19][17.2]

Alec: [00:14:20] Yeah, and assess your own January bold predictions with a glass of it. Nice. Alright Bryce, I'm going to ask you one next year you predicted that agriculture would be the worst performing sector in the Australian economy. [00:14:32][12.5]

Bryce: [00:14:33] Yes. Now look, I think at the time we had experienced significant bushfires in Australia, we were also at the time, unbeknown to us, going through a bit of a tail end of a drought. However, given that Covid has hit, there are a number of sectors that have taken significant damage using rural funds as a bit of a proxy. The ag sector is up five percent. And I know that there are a number of sectors that are performing worse than that. [00:15:00][27.5]

Alec: [00:15:00] Yeah, well, the overall economy, the overall market is performing worse. [00:15:03][3.1]

Bryce: [00:15:04] Absolutely. So I think this one will finish differently. I'm interested to see how this one plays out. Yeah. [00:15:10][6.4]

Alec: [00:15:11] The interesting thing to watch will be a lot of commodity prices because a lot of them followed the same trajectory during during the first wave of covid was prices declined massively on the demand side. Shock when, you know, just no buyers. [00:15:23][12.3]

Bryce: [00:15:23] So energy got hit, commodities, [00:15:25][1.2]

Alec: [00:15:26] everything got hit, coffee got hit in tostadas. Last week, we published an article about the price of cheese, which is a market traded commodity, and it just got smashed. So a lot of commodities followed the same trajectory down based on the demand shock as everything shut down. And then a lot of them have followed the same trajectory up on the supply side constraints that happened afterwards. So because so many primary producers shut their businesses and shut their production facilities, capacity's, farms, whatever, however the commodities are produced. But the demand came back really strongly and a lot of times governments also propped up demand. It was just a matter of. Supply and demand dynamics did a 180 and prices rocketed up as a result. So if prices stay really strong for the second half of the year, you would expect agriculture to do quite well in the back of that. I mean, obviously, as more production comes back online, you would expect things to normalise again. But tough to say with some commodity prices on now, that becomes the worst performing sector. [00:16:29][62.8]

Bryce: [00:16:29] Yeah. And I mean, tough to anticipate what's going to happen with Covid over the remainder of the year as well, like those sort of supply and demand shocks could, you know, re-establish themselves at some point in the future. [00:16:38][9.1]

Alec: [00:16:39] I could just wax lyrical about this all the time, so feel free to shut me up. But the really interesting thing will be where there's a disconnect between the supply chain that disrupts the supply and demand dynamics. So like the US meat industry more generally was a really interesting example of that, where the farm prices of animals were plummeting, but the supermarket prices were skyrocketing. And that's because the abattoirs or the production facilities were massive covid vectors. And so a lot of them were getting shut down. And because the US industry so concentrated, there's only a few big producers and that just savaged the supply chain. And so in that case, you could say commodity prices go up. So like finished pork belly prices were skyrocketing in the US, but the prices of hogs was massively declining because you couldn't get them into an abattoir. So, yeah, there was nothing that could be done with them. So things like that, if covid rears its ugly head again, you know, and those supply chain disruptions happened, then you could say agriculture really suffered really quickly. But I think on the whole, I would expect this one to finish differently [00:17:42][63.5]

Bryce: [00:17:43] on the same. This one will finish differently. Fingers crossed. Pretty basic. So Ren, this is an interesting one. This is for you. There will be a third party challenger in the U.S. presidential election. And no, Kanye West does not count. [00:17:56][13.0]

Alec: [00:17:56] He does. [00:17:56][0.1]

Alec: [00:17:58] So this is a bit of a misnomer, I guess, of a question, because there's always some tiny third party challenger, Kanye, you know, being the example all like a Greens party candidate or something like that. But obviously, the spirit of the bold prediction was a major challenge of your sort of Ross Perot style challenger who really takes a fair chunk of the vote. So I felt pretty good about this prediction when Bernie Sanders looked like he was going to sweep up the Democratic nomination. I thought if Sanders was the Democrat and Trump was a Republican, there was definitely space in the centre for Bloomberg or potentially a Romney to run as a third party candidate and really take a good chunk of votes. I think that's less likely with Joe Biden. I couldn't really say a sort of centrist Democrat running. And given the concern about Trump, you couldn't really say someone trying to outflank Biden on the left. I could potentially say a moderate Republican trying to run or a just a counterpoint. Republican Justin Amash, the one Republican that's defected from the Republican Party, is running as a libertarian. That's probably not big enough to satisfy this bold prediction. I'm going to say it'll likely finish differently, but Mitt Romney might come in and save me on this one. [00:19:18][79.2]

Bryce: [00:19:18] But I'm looking forward to seeing how that pans out. [00:19:20][2.4]

Alec: [00:19:21] So next one for you. And I loved this prediction at the time and I love it even more now. You predicted that CSL will become the biggest ASX listed company measured by market cap. [00:19:33][11.9]

Bryce: [00:19:33] Yeah. Now, Ren, this has been a fascinating development. There was a moment in time in June where it was the biggest company on the ASX by market cap. However, CommBank still at the time of recording, holds that position at one hundred thirty one point to three billion market cap. CSL is one hundred and twenty eight point three seven billion. So just just off the mark, I [00:20:01][27.7]

Alec: [00:20:01] was looking I can't remember why I was looking at this sort a couple of days ago, so very recently. And they were both at one hundred and twenty eight. [00:20:07][6.1]

Bryce: [00:20:08] Well, that time of recording CSL is down three point six percent and Commonwealth is flat. So maybe that's the difference they're in in some instance. So look, I still back this in. I think given what's going on, I'm still backing it in. I don't think it'll finish. [00:20:23][15.8]

Alec: [00:20:24] I think we'll finish differently either [00:20:25][1.3]

Bryce: [00:20:26] or at Ren a couple to go. So one of your bold predictions was that another country announces that they are or votes on leaving the European Union. [00:20:34][8.5]

Alec: [00:20:35] Yeah, I liked this prediction at the start of the year. [00:20:37][2.5]

Alec: [00:20:37] Oh, yeah. [00:20:38][0.3]

Alec: [00:20:38] Oh yeah. It was my prediction. I am going to say it won't finish differently. I think the coronavirus has stirred up a lot of intra-European tensions that simmered under the surface, the tensions between, you know, the southern European states of Italy, Greece, Spain and the northern European states of Germany and Netherlands and stuff like that. France, it feels like there are some divides. They just agreed on an EU bailout. I'm. Pretty sure for across the EU, which probably will quell some of those tensions, so there was a little bit of tension there. Italy looked like a front runner for the whole Italian elects. [00:21:16][38.3]

Alec: [00:21:17] Its Aleksic, its [00:21:18][1.1]

Alec: [00:21:19] Aleksa was what it was called. And I think, yeah, there was a party that formed and there was a lot of popular support for a vote to leave the EU. We'll see how that plays out. The other one that I think is worth watching is Hungary's obviously taking quite an authoritarian turn with under Viktor Orban. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the EU reacts to that. There's a number of geopolitical things at play here, but at the end of the day, the EU probably at some point will have to do something. And it will be interesting to see how Hungary reacts. All right. Moving away from geopolitics and actually we're staying with politics because your next prediction was that Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Do you think that prediction will finish differently? [00:22:03][44.4]

Bryce: [00:22:04] I think this one will finish differently, and I hope that it will finish differently. I think that he has had a number of things go against him this year that he has certainly not been able to handle and get control of amongst a whole host of other ridiculous things over the last three years. So without going into too much more political chat, I think this will finish differently. And Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020. [00:22:29][25.6]

Alec: [00:22:31] Yeah, but that's what everyone said in 2016. [00:22:32][1.3]

Bryce: [00:22:33] That's true. That's true. So Ren, it'd be fitting to close out with our AFO bold predictions. This is your final one. And it was that the Sydney Swans. [00:22:41][8.6]

Alec: [00:22:42] Hold on. You've got another one before we get into the footy. [00:22:44][2.0]

Bryce: [00:22:44] Well, this is your final one. [00:22:46][1.3]

Alec: [00:22:46] OK, well, let me ask you this one, because it somehow you snuck an extra prediction in. So your last non AFL related bold prediction was that piracy makes a comeback in 2020. And I don't think you were talking about streaming piracy. I think you were talking about Somali pirates in the Horn of Africa disrupting fuel shipments. [00:23:07][21.4]

Bryce: [00:23:08] Yeah, I was concerned about the cargo industry. No, Ren, you're exactly right. It was piracy of films and, you know, computer games and all sorts of things. [00:23:17][8.6]

Alec: [00:23:17] Did you read download BitTorrent? [00:23:18][1.4]

Bryce: [00:23:19] The reason I had this one was because I felt like there was such a rise in the streaming services available that it would become overwhelming for people to have subscriptions to all services, leading them to want to just go to downloading more and more. I think this will finish differently. Piracy has not made a comeback. If anything, Covid has accelerated the companies that provide streaming services and it's just become more and more ingrained. So this will finish differently. [00:23:46][27.3]

Alec: [00:23:47] I mean, I know I'm the master of the vague, bold prediction, but this one was particularly vague. How would you. How are you proposing to measure this? [00:23:54][6.9]

Bryce: [00:23:54] We'll have to listen to the first episode. We probably should have done some due diligence on this one, but I think it'll finish differently. Actually, I want to watch this one from the record [00:24:01][6.8]

Alec: [00:24:02] so that it's already [00:24:03][1.2]

Alec: [00:24:03] recorded. [00:24:03][0.0]

Bryce: [00:24:04] So we'll finish it with your final one, Ren. And that was that the Sydney Swans finish higher than the Essendon Bombers on the AFL ladder. [00:24:11][7.1]

Alec: [00:24:12] This one probably isn't going to happen, which pains me to say. But for last week, where the Swans kicked a mammoth 60 points and lost three scores were the mammoth totals of twenty six, forty three and thirty nine. So I think we can say that Sydney is in a rebuilding phase and the fact that Essendon beat Sydney, albeit just by one goal. But I'm going to say this prediction will well and truly finish differently. [00:24:40][28.4]

Bryce: [00:24:41] I would agree with that. [00:24:41][0.9]

Alec: [00:24:42] So last one for you. You were not brave enough to make a prediction about the Essendon Bombers, and instead you predicted that the Hawthorn Hawks will make the top four in the AFL. [00:24:54][11.9]

Bryce: [00:24:55] I think this one will finish differently Ren. They're not performing. They are in the midst of trying to figure out if they're in a rebuilding stage or whatever is going on for them. So this one will finish differently. The hawks will not finish in the top four. So I Ren if we just take a quick recap, you had eight bold predictions of which how many have you said will finish differently? [00:25:16][21.2]

Alec: [00:25:16] So I said two and a half. OK, so I say good airborne day. Yeah, we'll be the biggest IPO. They probably won't. IPO or the IPO market is pretty dry at the moment, so we'll say they'll probably finish differently. The Sydney Swans prediction will probably finish differently. And then my wax stock predictions Afterpay will definitely not be the worst performer of the five so that half of the prediction will finish differently. [00:25:42][25.3]

Bryce: [00:25:42] So some pretty strong, bold predictions from you. On the flip side, Ren seven of my nine, I predict, will finish differently. [00:25:49][7.6]

Alec: [00:25:50] So that's why they call you Bryce flip flop. [00:25:52][2.0]

Alec: [00:25:52] Leskie, I think [00:25:54][1.7]

Bryce: [00:25:54] for once you're going to come out on top on the bold prediction side of things. But look, it's been an enjoyable exercise to go through them and figure out what will be finished differently, but. [00:26:04][9.5]

Alec: [00:26:04] I think quick credit where credit's due, if we talk about our stock of the predictions, your stock of the year, you can be pretty confident in mine. I will be finishing differently. [00:26:14][10.1]

Bryce: [00:26:16] We will leave that for another episode. But look, a great episode on figuring out what will finish differently for 2020. And look, we really look forward to catching back up at the end of the year to actually see whether or not these bold predictions did finish differently. [00:26:55][39.4]

Alec: [00:26:55] Ren hopefully over another bottle of Jacob's Raekwon. [00:26:58][2.5]

Alec: [00:26:58] Absolutely. [00:26:58][0.0]

Speaker 5: [00:26:59] Thanks for listening to Equity Mates investing podcast production of Equity Mates Media. Please remember that everything you hear in Equity Mates investment podcast with general advice on the content has been prepared without knowing your personal objectives, specific financial circumstances or goals. The host of Equity Mates Investment Podcast may maintain positions in the companies discussed before considering any investment. Please read the product disclosure statement and consider speaking to a licenced financial professional. [00:26:59][0.0]

[1414.0]

More About
Companies Mentioned

Meet your hosts

  • Alec Renehan

    Alec Renehan

    Alec developed an interest in investing after realising he was spending all that he was earning. Investing became his form of 'forced saving'. While his first investment, Slater and Gordon (SGH), was a resounding failure, he learnt a lot from that experience. He hopes to share those lessons amongst others through the podcast and help people realise that if he can make money investing, anyone can.
  • Bryce Leske

    Bryce Leske

    Bryce has had an interest in the stock market since his parents encouraged him to save 50c a fortnight from the age of 5. Once he had saved $500 he bought his first stock - BKI - a Listed Investment Company (LIC), and since then hasn't stopped. He hopes that Equity Mates can help make investing understandable and accessible. He loves the Essendon Football Club, and lives in Sydney.

Get the latest

Receive regular updates from our podcast teams, straight to your inbox.

The Equity Mates email keeps you informed and entertained with what's going on in business and markets
The perfect compliment to our Get Started Investing podcast series. Every week we’ll break down one key component of the world of finance to help you get started on your investing journey. This email is perfect for beginner investors or for those that want a refresher on some key investing terms and concepts.
The world of cryptocurrencies is a fascinating part of the investing universe these days. Questions abound about the future of the currencies themselves – Bitcoin, Ethereum etc. – and the use cases of the underlying blockchain technology. For those investing in crypto or interested in learning more about this corner of the market, we’re featuring some of the most interesting content we’ve come across in this weekly email.